Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 300058
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
858 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. THE COOL PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND
BUT A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEARING EXTENDING FROM
THE THOUSAND ISLANDS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL SOON BE
DISPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. IN
FACT...CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
THIS HOUR.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH PRESSES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK.
WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THIS
INITIAL ROUND...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED. GIVEN
SFC-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 14C WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPROACHING
30KFT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE 50S WITH COOLEST SPOTS BEING FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND THE TUG HILL.

LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
WIDESPREAD...DIURNAL INSTABILITY-DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BARELY BREACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF
THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING
FOR SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF DENSER CLOUD COVER OVER ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS AREA OF
VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TOWARDS 12Z. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL RAIN
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER PREVAILING CIGS/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.



OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH







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