Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 041503
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...
AND WATERTOWN TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND LAST
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK INSTABILITY
/500 TO 1000 J/KG/ AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO FOCUS ALONG THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY LINGER SHOWER OR
THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE
OF A A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE PLANNING TO VIEW FIREWORKS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
IN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION TO START THE TIME PERIOD
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEATHER
PARAMETERS THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE THE VALLEYS OF THE GENESEE AND
ALLEGANY RIVERS...WHILE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.
IT SHOULD BE THE FIRST DRY SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SINCE MAY
24TH.

SPEAKING OF MAY...TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE
MAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL WARM TO +16 TO +18C...AND
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
HIGHS SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A SPOT 90 IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS FAR WNY
LATER MONDAY...AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH AND THE NEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITHIN A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REMAINING AT ONLY 70F FOR A LOW. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IT WILL FORCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS LOW HOWEVER WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH EITHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...OR INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AN MCS TRACKING OUT OF
MICHIGAN / MIDWEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF WHICH
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME. STILL TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGING TO AROUND +17C AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL... AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO ONE OF THE DAY OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD
SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR
FROM A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVIY HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDTIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAFF SITES THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
17Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY WELL
INLAND OF THE LAKES...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THESE WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT
ART/ROC/JHW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
PATCHY RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES...WITH
LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...AR/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/APFFEL
MARINE...AR/APFFEL/THOMAS


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