Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 251808
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep dry weather and midsummerlike warmth across
our region through most of Wednesday. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a chance of a few light showers late Wednesday and
Wednesday night...with much cooler temperatures then following for
Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 am the Southern Tier valley fog is rapidly
dissipating per regional satellite imagery...with its remnants
likely to be gone shortly and thus of no consequence to the
forecast for the rest of the day.

Otherwise strong ridging will remain intact across our region at all
levels today...and will provide our area with continued fair dry
weather and a good deal of sunshine. In terms of cloud cover...just
some thin/high cirrus will push across the area from southwest to
northeast...with some scattered diurnal cumulus also developing
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier this afternoon in
conjunction with a weak easterly low level flow and consequent
subtle increase in Atlantic-based moisture. The big story however
will continue to be the midsummerlike heat...with 850 mb temps of
+19C to +20C supporting widespread upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower elevations...with slightly cooler readings across the higher
terrain and along the immediate lakeshores. Record highs for today
were all set in 2007 and are 87 in Buffalo...92 in Rochester...and
89 in Watertown...with the Buffalo record still looking to be the
most in jeopardy at this time.

High pressure remains in place tonight. Diurnal cumulus will
dissipate this evening across the western Southern Tier, with a
continued slow increase in high/thin cirrus clouds. Temperatures
will be very mild given the now humid airmass, with lows in the
upper 60s on the lake plains and lower 60s across the interior
Southern Tier and Lewis County. Expect more river valley fog across
the western Southern Tier late tonight, with patchy lighter fog
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the last of the recent summer-
like warmth for the region.  In addition, some areas will see their
first chance for rain in about 2 weeks arriving Wednesday with one
or two prefrontal frontal troughs and/or afternoon lake breeze
boundaries.  The front itself will likely be a dry frontal passage
for Western NY.  Expect it to ease into the region Wednesday evening
with scattered convection well ahead of it over central NY.

Thursday should be dry but with ample strato-cumulus under an
upslope northwest flow. It`s possible a few sites might see a
sprinkle or two, but the main story will be the ~20F drop in daytime
high temperatures.  While it may feel cool, the highs, mostly
in the 60s, will actually get us back our normal climatology.

Thursday night should be similarly dry with a continued drop in
temperatures resulting in lows in the 40s overnight.  This will
coincide with a surface ridge dropping from the upper Great Lakes
region into Western NY overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A much sharper longwave trough axis and secondary surface cold front
is shown in the models to drop across our region Friday or Friday
night. This will bring a chance of rain showers and another shot of
cold air advection. 00Z guidance has trended a bit stronger with
this shortwave, supporting slightly higher chances for showers and
slightly cooler temperatures behind the front. 850mb temps could
drop to or a few degrees below zero C Friday night or Saturday night
with a north to northwesterly flow over the lakes. Expect this
airmass to contribute to some lake enhancement behind the cold front
with a chance of showers south of the lakes Friday night into
Saturday.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 60s
throughout the period, except Saturday which will be a bit cooler
with highs around 60. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s,
with the typically cooler interior valleys and North Country dipping
into the 30s Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1420z the bulk of any early morning fog has largely
dissipated... with any remaining patchy Southern Tier valley fog
likely to be gone shortly. For the balance of the day...high
pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions...with nothing
more than some thin high cirrus, and perhaps some afternoon
diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Mainly clear skies and light winds will again allow fog to develop
late tonight with patchy MVFR to IFR VSBY across much of the region,
and more concentrated IFR fog in the river valleys of the western
Southern Tier.

Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR - except local IFR/MVFR conditions in
Southern Tier valley fog during the morning.
Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers late
Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and again on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through Wednesday morning. This will provide a long stretch of
very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions,
but not much wind for sailing.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Northwest winds
will increase in the wake of the cold front, and may bring a round
of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and Ontario late
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK


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