Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 031147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH AREAS OF IFR.
THESE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL THIN OUT AND BE REPLACED BY
CIRRUS AND DIURNAL BASED CU.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



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