Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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917
FXUS61 KBUF 190834
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally provide our region with fair weather
through early next week, with a chance of some drizzle east of Lake
Ontario today as a weak backdoor cold front moves south out of
Canada. Meanwhile above normal temperatures will last right
through the upcoming week. The first chance of rain will not
arrive until late Tuesday when a weak front crosses the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery early this morning shows mostly clear skies across
the region, outside of some thin high clouds which may streak across
the region. Clouds associated with a frontal boundary remain well to
the north, with model guidance still too fast to bring in this cloud
cover. Low moisture shown in NAM BUFKIT soundings may result in some
fog across the North Country, but clouds with the front should not
arrive until this morning. Temperatures at daybreak will be in the
mid to upper 30s in most locations.

A weak backdoor cold front will move slowly south across the area.
The combination of added moisture from the front and westerly flow
off Lake Ontario should finally result in the development of low
stratus east of Lake Ontario. The moisture may become deep enough to
support areas of drizzle as well for the eastern Lake Ontario
region, especially across the Tug Hill and western foothills of the
Adirondacks with an added boost from upslope flow. Temperatures
aloft cool under weak cold advection through the day, but don`t get
cold enough to support ice nuclei in the cloud bearing layer,
forcing the drizzle sounding.

Across the rest of the area, expect mostly sunny skies in the
morning, with patchy stratus as low level moisture increases along
and behind the weak backdoor cold front. Temperatures today will be
much cooler than yesterday, but still well above normal. Suspect that
a consensus of guidance is a bit too cold with some models overdone
with low moisture and stratus. Highs should range from the upper 40s
to around 50 south of Lake Ontario to the lower 40s east of Lake
Ontario.

The weak frontal boundary will weaken tonight, while an elongated
ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. There may be some
patchy stratus in the area, but expect significant areas of clear
skies as well. Lows will vary based on sky conditions, generally be
in the upper 20s to around 30 south of Lake Ontario, with lower to
mid 20s east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in across the region Monday with the ridge axis
still to our west. Temperatures will be lower on Monday, but still
above seasonal averages, as the cool air mass behind a departing
shortwave linger across the region. Temperatures will be coolest
across the North Country, closer to the center of the cold airmass,
and will top out in the mid to upper 30s. However, WNY will see warm
air advection increasing by the afternoon as the ridge axis moves
toward the lower Great Lakes. High temperatures will push into the
mid to upper 40s. Otherwise, expect fair weather and mostly sunny
skies.

Models have trended a bit faster with the approaching progressive
shortwave, with the consensus now bringing it across the area during
the day Tuesday. This will bring increasing cloud cover early
Tuesday morning, with rain showers likely crossing the area during
the day Tuesday, and tapering off from west to east Tuesday night.
With no real cold air source to the wave, Tuesday will see highs in
the upper 40s in the North Country to mid 50s in WNY, mainly limited
by the cloud cover and any precipitation that falls.

Ridging will quickly follow on Wednesday brining more fair weather.
Wednesday will see temperatures surge back to around 50 in the North
Country, to the lower 60s in WNY, continuing the stretch of very
mild weather across the region well into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging will quickly follow on Wednesday brining more fair weather.
Wednesday will see temperatures surge back to around 50 in the North
Country, to the lower 60s in WNY, continuing the stretch of very
mild weather across the region well into next week.

Temperatures will remain solidly above normal during this period...
as a blocked flow will persist across the northern hemisphere. The
main feature within the obstructed flow will be a Rex Block that
will be anchored between Alaska and the Hawaiian Islands. This will
naturally keep a trough over the western half of the country while
general ridging will be found further downstream (over the east).
While the pattern will attempt to break down towards the end of this
forecast period with the trough broadening across the country...but
any semblance of winter will be short lived as the various ensemble
packages are suggesting that the longwave trough will then become re-
established over the west.

In terms of day to day weather...the upper level pattern described
above will be very conducive for `cutter` type storms to make their
way from the high plains to the Upper Great Lakes. This storm track
will keep the storm systems to our west...further enhancing the mild
weather with periodic injections of warmth from the GOMEX. Such will
be the case Friday and Friday night when a sub 990mb low will direct
some late winter sub tropical warmth (H85 temps 10 to 12c) across
the Lower Great Lakes.

While there is high confidence of the general pattern and its
corresponding impacts on our temperatures...the same cannot be said
about the timing of the individual storm systems. This will lead to
some broad brushing of chc pops...especially later in the period.
Will thus refrain from getting too specific with the use of likely
pops.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low level moisture will increase overnight, however guidance has
been too pessimistic with boundary layer moisture and low clouds
remain well to the north in Quebec/Ontario. Based on this, expect
mainly VFR conditions with the best chance for any flight
restrictions at ART where there may be some fog or light stratus
ahead of an approaching cold front.

This backdoor cold front will drop across the region this afternoon,
resulting in some cloud cover. Then after this, upsloping from the
northerly flow behind the front may result in some more low clouds.
This said, temperatures aloft behind the front are not cold enough
for any lake effect clouds, and because guidance has been
consistently overdone with low moisture the 06Z TAFS hedge
optimistic and show mainly scattered MVFR cloud decks behind the
front.

Outlook...
Monday...Stratus and MVFR CIGS improving to VFR.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Chance of showers with areas of MVFR.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest winds will be in the 10-20 knot range ahead of a
weak cold front through this morning, then will shift to the
northwest late today. Waves will average 2-4 feet on the east half
of Lake Ontario, but given the marginal setup expect waves to remain
just below small craft criteria. Lighter winds will return for early
next week as high pressure builds into New England.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL



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