Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 160625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A cold front will usher in much cooler temperatures today with a few
lake effect rain showers. Tonight will be chilly, with the first
frost of the season in many areas. Then high pressure will bring a
return to dry weather Tuesday through the end of the week with
temperatures warming to above normal again.


A strong cold front has pushed across eastern New York earlier with
some lingering scattered showers showing up on radar across the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Winds will steadily diminish overnight
as the parent low pressure system over southern Quebec departs and
the pressure gradient relaxes.

Increasing wrap around moisture and over-lake instability
will bring lake effect clouds and scattered showers overnight as
flow becomes westerly and then northwesterly. There will also be
some contribution from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as well.
Temperatures will drop into the 40s by Monday morning.

Narrow bands of lake effect rain showers will continue southeast of
the lakes on Monday. The peak of the shower activity will be Monday
morning. The activity will then wind down Monday afternoon as high
pressure, subsidence and drier air build into the region. Cold air
advection will keep highs only in the lower 50s at lower elevations,
with mid to upper 40s across higher terrain.


High pressure across the Ohio valley will begin to build northeast
across the CWA Monday Night. This will bring dry weather through the

Temperature-wise, Monday night will be coolest with temperatures in
the low to mid 30s across the interior sections. Climatologically
the growing season has ended across Wyoming, Cattaraugus, Allegany,
Jefferson and Lewis counties where the most widespread frost is
expected. Elsewhere, away from the lakes patchy frost is included in
the forecast but will have to monitor the need for any Frost
headlines if it looks widespread enough.  Warm air advection quickly
begins again on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and
into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. Overnight lows show a
similar warming trend with temps Tuesday night mainly in the 40s and
milder Wednesday night into the mid 40s to mid 50s.


A weak trough passes across southern Ontario early Thursday but its
the high pressure centered across the Tennessee Valley and mid-
Atlantic states will dominate throughout this period and keep the
region dry.

The warming trend that begins midweek continues into the weekend
with temperatures well above normal. Highs temperatures in the
upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday will warm to the low to mid 70s
by Saturday...values some 10 to 15 degrees above norm.


At 06Z mainly MVFR conditions are in place, and this is mainly due
to lake effect clouds which have developed behind the cold front. A
lake effect rain shower cannot be ruled out, but any showers will be
light. These should persist through daybreak, but then start to
gradually lift and scatter out this morning as drier air moves into
the region. Expect widespread VFR conditions to develop this
afternoon, which will last through tonight.


Tuesday through Friday...VFR except for local IFR in river valley
fog each late night and early morning.


Winds are beginning to relax some across the lakes behind a cold
front which crossed the region earlier. Winds of 25-30 kts and
residual large waves still supports Small Craft Advisories on Lakes
Erie and Ontario which will last through the overnight on Lake Erie
and into Monday afternoon on Lake Ontario.

Another period of stronger southwest winds will develop Tuesday,
though not as strong as today. This will likely bring a round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and Ontario.


Gusty westerly winds behind a strong cold front will bring
significant wave action to the New York shoreline of Lake
Ontario. Winds will quickly diminish Monday morning.

The Lake Ontario level is several feet lower than late spring,
and is about a foot above normal for the month of October. The
lower lake level reduces the risk of flooding along the
lakeshore even on windy days. However, the lakeshore is still
very fragile and unstable in many areas following the heavy
erosion from earlier this year. A Lakeshore Flood Warning
remains in effect for the entire Lake Ontario shoreline, with
the potential for more significant shoreline erosion and
associated damage.


NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for



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