Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
945 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DISPLAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW QUEBEC WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY
ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH
THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY AN ELONGATED REGION OF LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COUNTY SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING
SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH
CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST
COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN THE
PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS KICKED OFF SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT
PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL
DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT
SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE TWO CREEKS THAT ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE THE ELLICOTT AND TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
ELLICOTT CREEK IS EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING...WHILE TONAWANDA
CREEK SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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