Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH JUST A SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWER AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD
ON TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDED
BACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE AS UPSTREAM RIDGING SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WHILE
KEEPING A LID ON STORM ACTIVITY. THE 12Z KBUF RAOB SHOWED A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AT 750MB SO NOT EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RADARS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INLAND FROM THE
LAKE BREEZE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT NEAR SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL BRING RIVER VALLEY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGING WILL CENTER OVER NEW
YORK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN +18C TO +20C. EXPECT A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ALONG THE LAKE SHORES. A 700MB CAPPING
INVERSION AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...AND EVEN WHEN CONSIDERING PREVIOUS RUNS A CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
FRONT LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. BOTH NAM/GFS FORECAST 850MB WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS COULD SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THIS
SAID...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK...SO
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY TUNED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. WESTERN NEW YORK
SHOULD BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE
EXITING FRONT EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY...AND ANY SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY TO STAY
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE COMFORTABLY COOL
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE REGION DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST HELPING TO ADVECT IN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWERS 80S
DURING BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT A BIT LESS WARM AS
READINGS ACROSS MOST AREAS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE FORMED INLAND
FROM THE TAF SITES. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION SITES. FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS EAST OF KJHW
TOWARD KELZ. VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING
MVFR FOG AND CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL KEEP A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE ALSO PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...THOMAS






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