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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221521
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1121 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PROMOTES A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE WARMTH AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSES
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS
COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AXIS OF A 500 HPA RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL CREATE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS/CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE LAKES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY POOLING IN ANY LOCATION...COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM SUBTLE LAKE BREEZES COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LAKES. THIS SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM DEW POINTS WILL BRING OUT
SUMMERS WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION TODAY. ALOFT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND +17 TO +19C AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S FOR OUR
REGION. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE
LAKES...THE GENESEE VALLEY AND BLACK AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEYS. A SPOT 90F READING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES REGION.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALOFT A 35 TO 40 KNOT LLJ WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY BRING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORMING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
BOUND COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE WESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER BY DAWN.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A MUGGY AIRMASS DROPPING ONLY BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED FRONTAL
TIMING SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH LAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. UNFAVORABLE
TIMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DECENT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK GREAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY FROM
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT MINIMAL CLOUDS
ASIDE FROM ANY TYPICAL MORNING VALLEY FOG. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH EXCELLENT SLEEPING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S...COOLER WELL INLAND/. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH TO NEAR
AVERAGE WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE MORE IN QUESTION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A SURFACE LOW WEST OR SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR EVEN A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY AND PROVIDE PERIODS OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE AS LOBES OF VORTICITY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
STARTING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY FOUND WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING IFR/MVFR FOG ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE AREA TO INCLUDE
A MENTION IN ANY TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER A SHOWER MAY REACH THE KIAG AND KBUF AIRFIELDS
BEFORE THE CLOSURE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SAVE FOR IFR/MVFR IN
PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE THE
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND RIVERS TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WAVES 2 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WAVES 2 TO 3
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA/ZAFF
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS