111
FXUS61 KBUF 110538
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through the first part of Friday before
isolated showers and a few storms develop Friday afternoon,
mainly south of Interstate 90. Otherwise heat and humidity
levels will again be on the rise through the first half of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Drier conditions are expected overnight and the first part of
Friday...with some fog forming across interior sections tonight as
dewpoint depressions narrow in the presence of light winds and
mainly clear skies.

Friday afternoon...a weakly capped environment will be in place
across the Southern Tier after morning valley fog erodes. This would
support fairly isolated thunderstorm development over the higher
terrain within weak shear, but short-lived cells could still result
in locally gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Headed into the weekend, the general synoptic pattern shows 500mb
height rises across the northeast US that will lead to warmer
weather and the potential for a brief period of heat impacts.
However, a mid-level trough moving northeast across the Great Lakes
region will drop a cold front passing through western NY Sunday
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. Timing uncertainty
remains with the passing of this front on Sunday that would have
impacts on most likely precipitation time as well as potential heat
impacts lingering into Sunday if the frontal passage is delayed to
later in the day. Additionally, leading shortwave energy passing
under the general ridging pattern will bring a small chance (20%)
of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon with the hot and
humid conditions.

Heat: Latest GEFS shows 850mb temps climbing around 18-19 degC
Saturday afternoon, which would be around the climatological 90th
percentile value across much of western NY. Additionally, moist
southerly flow ahead of the approaching trough to the west will
support dew points approaching 70 and "Feels Like" temperatures into
the mid-90s along the Lake Plains and the Finger Lakes region.
Overnight relief will be minimal Saturday night with lows remaining
above the 70 degF mark in many of these locations, especially urban
areas. Sunday will be warm as well, but increasing cloud cover and
chance of showers may limit impacts dependent on the timing of the
passing cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak surface ridge moves overhead for Monday, with largely dry
weather and somewhat albeit brief cooler conditions. Heat and
humidity then begins to build again on Tuesday, and looks like it
peaks on Wednesday ahead of the next trough and cold front.
ALthough...this will all depend on when the front arrives (timing)
as not all guidance is in lock step. That said...there is some
indication that by the end of the week cooler and dry weather
returns for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog is expanding in valley locations across the western Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes late tonight. Flight conditions will likely
bounce from MVFR to IFR or below overnight at KJHW. VFR conditions
expected at other local TAF sites.

Fog will erode shortly after daybreak Friday. Dry conditions will
continue through Friday morning, before convection begins in the
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region, with a
cumulus field developing inland from lake breezes. Localized, brief
periods of IFR or below are possible, however probability is low
that activity will reach TAF sites. Activity will diminish Friday
evening before upstream activity from the west approaches western NY
for the second part of Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie
and Ontario through the rest of the week. The next notable cold
frontal passage expected Sunday with southerly flow increasing out
ahead of the front Saturday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers/HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...Brothers/HSK/JJR
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Brothers/JJR