Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER LATEST HRRR RUN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS CLOSE TO THE NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER IN VICINITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL END ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL AGAIN KEEP MILD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH PRINTING
OUT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM INSIST ON IT BEING DRY.
CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE GFS SOUNDINGS...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND THE MODEL IS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THAT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPPING AND WITH NO FORCING THINK THAT A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY
TO GO. THE DRYNESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
18C WHICH WOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY AND QUIET REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF ITS PARENT 595 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY...OUR
REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS LEADING TO A RETURN
OF MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

UNDER THIS REGIME...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN +17C AND
+18C TUESDAY AND TO THE +19C TO +20C RANGE WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATING
THESE TO THE SURFACE...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 85-90
RANGE TUESDAY AND TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. ON
BOTH DAYS...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHILE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN PUSH THE MID 90S
ON WEDNESDAY IF THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER GFS GUIDANCE VERIFIES. AT THE
SAME TIME... SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S TUESDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEND AN INCREASINGLY MUGGY FEEL TO OUR
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN VERY LOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE HEAT OF EACH
DAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT GENERAL LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ALL OF THIS WILL THEN CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHILE SWINGING ITS
ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS AS IT PUSHES EAST...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITS
PASSAGE. THIS STATED...ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GREATLY LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME...UNIMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES...AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS IN TIME FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THINGS MORE SPECIFICALLY...AFTER A
SULTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
FALL MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...BEFORE
FALLING OFF TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DRY/QUIET AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO RANGE BETWEEN +12C AND +14C PER A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST... WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND TRAVERSING OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. WITH
SOME MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING INTO OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BE ON A SLOW BUT GENERAL INCREASE OVER TIME...WITH A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY PERHAPS GIVING WAY TO
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH BY SUNDAY AS A SOMEWHAT MORE
PRONOUNCED IMPULSE WORKS INTO THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY RISING INTO THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN THE KJHW TAF
BUT ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES. LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES KEEPING VFR EXCEPT AT KJHW WHERE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA


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