Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161936
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will plow across western and northcentral NY tonight
producing widespread showers along with delivering an initial shot
of colder air for the second half of the weekend. Saint Patrick`s
Day will be chillier with a brisk wind and persistent clouds that
could yield a few nuisance rain or snow showers. Looking further
ahead, airmass will continue to grow colder with below normal
temperatures and lake effect snow showers anticipated through much
of the upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As expected, some sunshine being enjoyed this afternoon across most
areas south of Lake Ontario, while low clouds tough to erode east of
Lake Ontario. Mid and upper level clouds will thicken and lower from
the northwest through early evening ahead of a strong cold front
that will cross the region tonight. Otherwise, eastern edge of 40-50
knot low level jet has nosed into western NY creating breezy
conditions with at least partial mixing, especially northeast of
Lake Erie where gusts to 30 mph will be found. One more warm
afternoon before a pattern change takes place with a flip back to
much more winter-like conditions that will last into at least a good
portion of next week. Before that though try to get outside and
take in one more day of above normal temperatures as highs
climb into the lower and even some mid 50s across many areas
south of Lake Ontario, with mid and upper 40s reserved for the
interior Southern Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario region.

The aforementioned strong cold front will plow across western and
central NY tonight, bringing the initial shot of cold air that will
only grow colder with time and will have some staying power.
Moisture pooling along and ahead of the boundary along with good
dynamical forcing both surface and aloft will bring a several hour
period of steadier showers to the region as the front passes
through. Deepening cold air may allow for some wet snow to mix in
across the higher terrain by later tonight, however no more than a
slushy coating is expected at any one given location. Lows will
still be above normal with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s,
possibly down near the freezing mark across the highest terrain.
Damp and breezy conditions will make it feel quite raw though.

Weak cold advection will continue through the day Sunday, especially
off the deck with 850Ts falling to around -8C to 9C by late in the
day. This will mean daytime highs in the mid to upper 30s higher
terrain to low and mid 40s elsewhere. Despite a chillier day, the
strong mid march sun angle will help to counteract cold air
advection near the surface which will allow for some fairly steep
low level lapse rates to develop by late morning into the afternoon.
With the cold cyclonic flow aloft, this will bring the chance for
some convective showers to develop, with any stronger cells possibly
producing some graupel. Would not rule out a few wet flakes as well,
especially across higher terrain as cold air continues to slowly
deepen aloft. Best chance for shower activity will be across an area
of low level convergence that sets up from the Niagara Peninsula
east to southern Oswego County. Otherwise, a lack of mid and upper
level moisture should keep any activity from becoming to widespread.
If going out for St. Patrick`s Day activities, dress warmly as wind
chills will generally range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s courtesy
of a stiff westerly breeze gusting upwards of 30-35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Through this period a deep upper level low will settle across the
Great Lakes region. The base of this trough will pass across our
region Monday night. At the surface low pressure will maintain
across Atlantic Canada. A secondary cold front will drop across the
region later Monday and Monday night.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will drop from around -7C to around -10 to -
12C this period, with the coldest air aloft following the base of
the upper level trough aloft. There could be a mix of rain and snow
early, becoming all snow later Sunday night. Lake effect snow will
carry on Monday and Tuesday carried inland by oscillating winds.
Most favorable time period for lake effect snow will be Monday night
and into Tuesday, when deeper synoptic moisture is available within
the core of the cold air aloft. The mid March sun angle, and
steepening mid level lapse rates may allow for some graupel later
Monday and Tuesday...and an isolated lightning strike.

An upstream connection to Georgian Bay will all for snow to become
moderate to briefly heavy on the Tug Hill Monday night as the
secondary surface trough drops through. Could see snow totals
pushing into advisory level range, and will add the Tug Hill region
into the HWO for snow later Monday and Monday night. This secondary
trough will push the heavier lake snow off Lake Ontario towards the
southeast end of the Lake Tuesday morning before winds back sending
the snow back towards the Tug Hill later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Lake snows Tuesday will weaken and become more cellular with daytime
insolation.

Off Lake Erie snow will focus upon the higher terrain south of
Buffalo Monday and Monday night. A northwest flow Monday night will
bring snow across the northern Niagara Frontier and towards the
Genesee Valley. The backing winds Tuesday may allow for the lake
snow to accumulate around metro Buffalo before snows weaken Tuesday
afternoon with the loss of synoptic moisture. Lake effect snow
continues Tuesday night off Lake Erie, but lacking deep moisture,
and also 850 hPa temperatures not as cool, lake snow will be weaker
in nature, likely across areas south of Buffalo.

Maximum temperatures will be below normal this period...or in
perspective, about 15 to 20 degrees colder than what the region has
averaged the first half of March. Clouds at night will keep
overnight lows close to normal. A brisk wind Monday and Tuesday,
gusting 25 to 35 mph will make these daytime highs feel even
colder, generally in the upper teens to 20s through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chilly, winter-like weather will continue across western and north
central NY into the first week of spring. An upper level trough will
remain across the Great Lakes region and Northeast. Another shot of
cold air (even colder than early in the week) will arrive by
Thursday. Forecast adjustments were made to lower temperatures
during this period, especially on Thursday.

Cold, cyclonic flow will maintain chances for snow showers across
the region Wednesday through Thursday. A shortwave trough may
intensify these snow showers with localized snowfall accumulations
possible. Synoptic moisture looks to diminish while warm air
advection starts across the region Thursday night into Friday. This
will bring temperatures up and likely lead to drier weather.

Uncertainty in the forecast grows moving into next weekend.
Consensus and most ensemble packages are leaning towards drier
weather with surface high pressure across the region and a coastal
low developing off the Carolinas. The 12z GEFS members and GFS have
a northern stream system interacting with the coastal low which
would bring widespread rain and snow to the region as early as late
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions across the region this afternoon, however some
MVFR/low VFR CIGS hanging on across the North Country (KART).
Otherwise, high pressure nosing into the region from the Ohio Valley
will provide fair dry weather through the end of the day.
Southwesterly winds will gust 20-25 knots across western NY this
afternoon.

Conditions will once again deteriorate tonight as a strong cold
front crosses the region. This will lead to a several hour period of
showers along and ahead of the cold front and mainly MVFR CIGS
developing, with some IFR possible across the higher terrain. A few
wet snow flakes possible across the hilltops. Winds veer westerly
with gusts mainly 15-20 gusts for all terminals.

Widespread rain and higher elevation wet snow showers will taper off
through Sunday morning as deeper moisture pulls east. Low level
moisture will remain however keeping mainly MVFR CIGS in place first
part of the morning, with conditions possibly improving to low VFR
across the terminals toward midday/early afternoon. Higher terrain
likely remains MVFR. Stout westerly winds with gusts 25-30 knots
across much of the region from mid to late morning on.




Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered rain and wet snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...MVFR/VFR. Snow showers likely.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies will eventually back to the south through
this evening as a cold front approaches the region, with conditions
remaining below Small Craft Advisory levels.

In the wake of the cold front, winds will become westerly and
freshen during the course of the overnight. Conditions will likely
become choppy on Lake Erie and on the eastern half of Lake Ontario
in the process.

Fresh to strong westerlies can be anticipated on Sunday, with gusts
approaching gale force on the east end of Lake Ontario. Small Craft
Advisories can be expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH


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