Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 200313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA






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