Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161446
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will cross our region today while bringing a
period of light snow to most areas. Following the passage of this
system...a continued flow of cold air will produce some limited lake
snows downwind of the lakes through midweek...before a pronounced
day to day warming trend arrives late in the week and then continues
through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake enhanced snow that flew near Lake Erie this early morning has
dropped south of Buffalo, and is beginning to weaken. Light snow
associated with a clipper low continues to fall across portions of
the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region this morning.

Snow associated with the clipper system will taper off from west to
east through the day. A cold front located across the Ohio Valley
will enter Western NY by afternoon. Colder SW flow will move over a
partially frozen Lake Erie and a lake response will begin this
evening. Inversion heights increase to 5-8k feet and lake effect
snow showers are expected from Buffalo Metro south to the Southern
Tier. Due to the partially frozen Lake Erie, snow accumulations will
be lackluster. An inch or two is expected into Wednesday morning. As
the cold front makes its way across Lake Ontario, flow will be SW-W
over the lake. Due to a wide open lake and similar inversion
heights, snow showers will likely be more intense than off Lake Erie
into Wednesday morning. A band will likely form across the Tug Hill
Plateau region resulting in 1-3 inches into Wednesday morning.

As the cold front moves eastward late this afternoon and into the
evening, snow will develop to the south and east as a coastal low
develops late tonight. The forecast area will be on the western
fringe of the baroclinic leaf and snow will likely skirt the
Southern Tier this evening, and move northward across the western
Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill Plateau region late tonight. Up
to an inch of accumulation is expected before the snow moves
eastward towards New England.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tonight with high
temperatures in the 20s and low temperatures in the single digits to
teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Synoptic snows will be coming to an end as forcing and deeper
moisture pivot northeast Wednesday morning. Lake effect parameters
will briefly gain an uptick behind the system Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Limited open water on Lake Erie will greatly limit
lake effect potential. Accumulations will be limited to no more than
inch or so Wednesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may
linger into Wednesday night near Buffalo, with little or no
accumulation expected. A better lake effect focus during this time
will be off Lake Ontario with much more open water. Shear profiles
suggesting bands will be moving enough to limit amounts in any one
location to no more than 3 inches.

What remains of the lake effect will diminish to scattered snow
showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Outside of lake effect areas,
Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry for the rest of the region
with variable amounts of clouds. Expect highs Wednesday to be in the
lower to mid 20s in most areas, with upper teens across the higher
terrain. By Thursday highs will recover into the mid to upper 20s.

Thursday night and Friday, another, well-defined, mid-level wave is
set pass just to the north of the region. Moisture will be limited
with this system, but will still bring an increase in clouds and
also provide a little better environment for lake effect snow again
east of Lake Ontario. This may produce some additional minor
accumulations centered on the Tug Hill region. This system will move
out quickly on Friday with any snow ending east of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will continue an upward trend, with highs in the lower
mid 30s by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another mid-winter thaw will be in the works as we move into the
weekend. A surface low is currently forecast to pass by to our north
as it tracks from northern Ontario Friday night to Labrador by
SUnday. Relatively warm and moist GOMEX-sourced air will be drawn
across our region and into this low, with a warm front crossing the
forecast area Friday into Friday night. While a few light snow
showers may be possible as the front crosses the area, the bulk of
the vertical forcing will remain well to our north across Canada,
and as a result pops should remain low into Saturday. Temperatures
should gradually rise through the 20s Friday night, with readings
cracking 40 degrees across many locales by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to rise and moisture will gradually
increase across the area as we move into the second half of the
weekend as southerly flow and GOMEX moisture return strengthens in
response to lee-side cyclone development across the central Plains.
Temperatures will climb well into the 40s, and some areas may flirt
with 50 Sunday afternoon, as warm air surges north across the region
in advance of the deepening cyclone moving into the Midwest. The
warming temperatures will be accompanied by increasing clouds
however, as this moisture deepens across the region. Models
currently indicate that we should see a more substantial chance
for rain moving into far western New York by late Sunday night,
as the low-level jet associated with the low approaches the
area. Rainy and blustery conditions can be expected on Monday,
as the aforementioned low cuts across the central Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak clipper system centered over southern Lower Michigan will
slide eastward across our area through the TAF period...while
continuing to slowly but steadily weaken. This system will continue
to spread occasional light snow across the region from west to east
this morning.

VFR conditions are expected outside of the snow today and tonight
with mainly MVFR CIGS expected.


Outlook...
Wednesday through Friday...localized MVFR to IFR possible
in scattered to occasionally more numerous lake effect snow showers
east of the lakes...with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
A weakening area of low pressure will cross our region today. This
will result in southerly winds less than 10 knots. A cold front will
move across Lake Erie by this afternoon and Lake Ontario by
Wednesday morning. Winds will increase out of the SW behind the cold
front. Winds will remain below Small Craft thresholds.

On Wednesday high pressure will ridge across the Ohio Valley...
while low pressure meanders its way across James Bay. Lingering
cold air and the tightening pressure gradient in between these
two systems will bring increasing winds and waves to those portions
of Lakes Erie and Ontario that are still ice free...and as such will
likely necessitate another round of Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK



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