Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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188
FXUS61 KBUF 061746
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1246 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
STEADILY COLDER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGING MORE SNOW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...STEADY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH DRIER AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARING
TREND UNDERWAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS WILL CONTINUETHIS
AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

RADAR SHOWS STEADY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
ROUND OF STEADY SNOW TO THESE AREAS...WITH MAYBE AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN LEWIS AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTENTLY KEEPS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM WHICH WILL LOWER EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WITH
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S TODAY...AIDED BY THE SUNSHINE
IN SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST AND THE WINDS WILL BE THE
LIGHTEST. FORECAST HEDGES BELOW CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES HERE...AND
A BIT ABOVE CONSENSUS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH OF THE NIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WEAKLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN
ENCROACHING STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
THE MIDDLE WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC KEEPING A DRY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER (IN THE MID 20S) CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE STALLED ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND TRACKING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS COASTAL STORM ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO KEEP THE
BEST UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL REMAIN BACK IN THE COOLER AIRMASS WITH
DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE / FORCING
REMAINS LIMITED. FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN NY (WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY) DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIALLY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE... WITH A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... BUT PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DESPITE MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATER MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES... VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES
TO LIMIT DYNAMICAL COOLING AND SOLAR INSOLATION EVEN THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT... LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A COATING TO AN INCH IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE PLAINS TO ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. DETAILS BECOME MORE
MURKY TUESDAY AS SNOWFALL WILL DEPEND ON TRACKS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING AROUND THE STALLED MEAN TROUGH AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
COASTAL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS... WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
DURING THE DAY AND 20S AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM AND
MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. BACK TRAJECTORIES ON THIS
AIRMASS... WHICH GLOBAL MODELS ARE GROWING INCREASING CONFIDENT ON
ITS TIMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOW IT ORIGINATES FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE GFS/EC/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LIKELY
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
GFS/EC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING THIS COLDER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR... WHICH MODEL BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW ORIGINATES NEAR
SIBERIA AND EVOLVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS VIA CROSS-POLAR FLOW IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SHOULD 00Z GFS/EC CONSENSUS FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C MATERIALIZED BY SATURDAY... THIS
AIRMASS WOULD LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND LOWS BELOW ZERO.
WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THIS COLD AIRMASS... THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE GIVEN THIS EVENT
IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HOWEVER... THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL PUSH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO ART. THIS
WILL ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO...WITH VSBY AVERAGING 2SM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SCATTER AND LIFT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LIFT ANY LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS OR FLURRIES NORTH. THIS
MAY CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION (INCLUDING WATERTOWN) LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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