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000
FXUS61 KBUF 031755
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN BRING WARMER AIR AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1750Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAKING UP
RATHER NICELY...THOUGH THESE ARE STILL HANGING ON TOUGH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS...YIELDING A RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY BRING
THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40...WITH UPPER 30S MOST PREDOMINANT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND AN INCREASING CLOUD DECK WILL THEN MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL FALL TO THE MIDDLE
20S WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLOUDINESS BEFORE THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. OVERALL THE BEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OR CLOSE TO IT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTING MID DAY WEDNESDAY CARRYING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED
A PERIOD OF NO WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE AREA WILL BE
WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SEND
850 MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR +6C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...PERHAPS LOWER 50S IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD PERHAPS DEVELOP A BIT SOONER
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. DEPTH OF MOISTURE LOOKS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH. MODEL SUGGESTION IS TO ORIENTATE THE
MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET UP OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...
IF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WERE TO FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...SOME ELEVATED THUNDER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY AND THE FORECAST WOULD NEED TO HIKE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPWARDS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS PRETTY
WELL WRAPPED UP NORTH OF THE AREA...A NON CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT
APPEARS LOW WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM AS SYSTEM COLD AIR IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LAGGING.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY LOOK MILD WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND PRE FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 50S...PERHAPS
NUDGING 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...SEPARATING
TRUE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WARM AIR ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACT AS A CONDUIT FOR SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK ON MOST OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND MAY COME IN TWO WEAK PIECES FROM LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE WITH EACH WEAK WAVE...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

IT APPEARS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO MOVE ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIP WELL EAST OF
THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLDER ON SATURDAY AND MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER DUE TO A DRY BACKGROUND
AIRMASS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETTING.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AS A DEEPER
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE DETAILS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED...WITH A FASTER TRANSITION TO
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIGHT TO MODERATE SYNOPTIC SNOW. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...WHICH WOULD PUSH A NOSE
OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WESTERN NY. THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A SNOW TO
MIX THEN BACK TO SNOW SCENARIO. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP IT ALL SNOW
AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY OTHER
MIXED PRECIP TYPE.

AFTER A FEW WARM DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND BACK BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THIS FIRST BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL JUST BE A
GLANCING BLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
DRAMATICALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON.
TYPICALLY IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THIS COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
TO ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO SPREAD EAST IN THE 8-14 DAY RANGE WHICH
WOULD BRING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DISSIPATE...THOUGH EVEN THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO THE LOWER
VFR/HIGH MVFR RANGE...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN
TO VFR DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND LLWS BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
RELATIVELY MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE ERIE...AND POSSIBLY LAKE
ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT...AND EVEN THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS/WCH