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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271447
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WESTERN MOVING WAVE...POSSIBLY BEST SEEN IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LIFT OVER WESTERN NY WITH LIGHT SNOW THE RESULT FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...SUBSIDENCE AND LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GIVING THIS
SECTION OF NY A SUNNY MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS LINGER FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NOR-EASTER
STILL AFFECTING AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE WESTWARD MOVING WAVE TO
AFFECT WESTERN NY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT/MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS.

LAKE EFFECT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME AS
SUBSIDENCE HINDERS ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE REMOVED
THIS THREAT BASED OFF OF MORNING OBSERVATIONS.  13Z AMDAR DATA AT
KROC SHOWS A VERY LOW CAP AT ABOUT 2000FT...SIMILAR TO 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING.  MEANWHILE TOWARD KSYR SHOWS AN INVERSION FROM THE GROUND
UP.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND FOR ALL SITES
AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH