Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST
THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS


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