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000
FXUS61 KBUF 020921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT
SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK