Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 191732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE
AREA WIDE WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER
30S AND WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
ENDED/ WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




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