Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS ENDED
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE DIMINISHING NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY
AIR. DESPITE THE LATE MARCH SUN...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY CLIMBED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE DATE.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CLEARING SKIES...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND A COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SINCE THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THE FORECAST HEDGES WITH A BLEND OF THE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE TEENS
ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL ACT TO HELP TO BETTER ORGANIZE THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL AS TEMPERATURES FALL LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...ACTUALLY RISING A COUPLE DEGREES. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...AND
SHOULD BECOME PRIMARILY RAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO MODIFY A
VERY MARGINAL AIRMASS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE FAVORABLE
SURFACE LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT A
CORE OF 40 TO 50 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS AT 925 MB. LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE
FULL MIXING POTENTIAL OF THESE STRONG WIND ALOFT...BUT WILL LIKELY
STILL RESULT IN WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WILL HAVE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AS TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 30S...THEN TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S OR UPPER TEENS
AS THE LOW PASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S. THE TRADE
OFF FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS. FOLLOWING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF...THE SOLUTIONS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND ON SHOWING A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THE TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE RANGED FROM JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A COASTAL LOW TRACK / AND SOME OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS LOSING THE SYSTEM AT TIMES. THE EC AND SEVERAL
OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING THIS STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING
A TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TIME FRAME FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT LIMITED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING. EVEN SO...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
WITH CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3K FT. AFTER THIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
PEAK OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




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