Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. A THIN VEIL
OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME
COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN



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