Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LITTLE RETURNS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WHERE A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE.
WITH THE LAKE ERIE EASTERN BUOYS DISPLAYING WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS...WILL EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE ERIE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS







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