Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010857
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
457 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND
MILD WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING UPPER LOW NOW
STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
PA. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH OUT OF PA
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY. HOWEVER STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LAGGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND THE PERSISTENT INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK. EAST NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AID IN DRAWING MOIST AIR SOUTH FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT...AS
WELL A LOW DECK THAT WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN QUEBEC
WILL START TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHILE A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ABOUT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE SLOW MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MAKE
PROGRESS IN MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BUILD NORTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS LEFT FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM MAY ALLOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
70S ON THE HILLS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS WEAK...SO EXPECT LOCAL
LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER
AN EARLY LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES EVEN
MORE ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO +14C. WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE
PLAINS TO NEAR 80...WITH MID 70S COMMON ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST GASP OF THE WARM SPELL
WHICH HAS LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SAME TREND FROM THE PAST FEW RUNS OF
SLOWING THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEAN ARE CLUSTERING
MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE FRONTAL TIMING...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT
REACHING WESTERN NY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE BULK OF FRIDAY TO BE RAIN FREE EVEN ACROSS WESTERN
NY...WITH SHOWERS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. THE
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT
AS A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR REGION AND
SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. A 120+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE A PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT
RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS MAY END UP BEING
GREATEST.

WHILE RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...FARTHER WEST THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY SLOT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
BASE OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS WESTERN NY LATER IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS...AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BECOME COOL ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL YIELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALMOST 20F COOLER THAN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MOST DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL CROSS
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE A SLOW MODERATING TREND NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWERS...BUT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
BOTH LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE VERY
COOL INDEED...WITH ONLY MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE SOME OF
THE HILLS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVES CROSSING THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS STILL MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
WEATHER...BUT NOT FAR FROM WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN EARLY
OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT ANY FOG TO
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...WHILE MVFR/IFR CIGS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO BREAK UP OR LIFT UNDER MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT BECOMING VFR
UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION INCLUDING KART SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT
EARLIER THAN OTHER SITES WITH NO LAKE INFLUENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 06Z-15Z EACH DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PA...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH FROM PA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AROUND 15-20
KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING...THUS A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SODUS BAY...WEST TO THE NIAGARA
RIVER...WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF 3-5 FEET
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND WAVES NEAR 1 FOOT ON LAKE ERIE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.

LATE IN THE WEEK...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS...WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING POSSIBLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/WCH






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