Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 500MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. A COOL FLOW OF 5C 850MB AIR PER MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM LAKE
ONTARIO WATERS FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN IS RIDGING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
SUPPRESSING LAKE SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE.

KTYX RADAR AT 4AM SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS RUNNING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CROSSING THE TUG HILL AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WILL LOWER THE CAPPING INVERSION BELOW 10KFT
GREATLY LIMITING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. FOR LAKE ERIE...THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGING HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT
JUST A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE.

ELSEWHERE JUST EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
ERODING FROM THE LAKE INLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A PUSH OF DRIER
AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
SUNSHINE WILL FIRST BREAK OUT ON THE LAKE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN INLAND CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BRING
PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MID 60S ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD. EXPECTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL WORK WITH THE CLEARING TO SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO
MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A FINE END TO THE WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WITH 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO LARGELY
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S
SATURDAY IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S WITH MID 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND IT IS OVERTAKEN BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A FAIRLY ROBUST CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO AT
ODDS WITH IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO AM NOT INCLINED TO BUY IN AT THIS
POINT. INSTEAD WILL STICK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FALLS APART
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN PRETTY CLOSE TO
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT`S READINGS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
AIRMASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK...THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY END UP BEING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE APPALACHIANS
EVEN AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE MIDWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD THE REMNANTS OF
THIS SYSTEM LIMP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO NEAR 9Z. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR AT KROC AND KJHW BUT ARE
HOLDING JUST ABOVE AT KBUF/KIAG. MVFR STILL POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBY MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
IN ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT RAIN SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCOMING DRY AIR TEND TO BREAK UP THE LOWER
CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO WILL END DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TODAY MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND MIDDAY...THEN IMPROVE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS IN THE 10-17 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ONTARIO
THIS MORNING WITH WIND AND WAVE ACTION JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT
WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH


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