Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 300337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1137 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. THE COOL PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND
BUT A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH REGIONAL RADAR DETECTING A SCATTERED AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED...ALLOWING FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 14C
WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
APPROACHING 30KFT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL RUN IN THE 50S WITH COOLEST SPOTS BEING FOUND IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL.

LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
WIDESPREAD...DIURNAL INSTABILITY-DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BARELY BREACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF
THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING
FOR SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-SHRA PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NY AT THIS TIME ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
VFR CIGS. EXPECT -SHRA TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE
ARRIVAL COOLER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER-ALIGNED SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS NE OF THE LAKES
TOWARDS 12Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...GIVEN MODEL PROJECTIONS OF LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDED EXPECTED LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS DEVELOP.

LAKE-ENHANCED -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WED MORNING...HOWEVER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY DRIVEN -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR HOWEVER.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH






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