Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 230817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER EARLY
MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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