Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 051453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
NEXT WEEK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF MID MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS ARE STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH A BLOSSOMING
BUT SMALLER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR GRAND ISLAND. THE FORMER COULD
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT AS WE PRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON...
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST AND BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE
PCPN.

WHILE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON...
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
FINGER LAKES...INCLUDING THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER
20S ON THE HILLS.

A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL JUST BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
MOST OF THE AREA.

A SUBTLE LAKE EFFECT SETUP WILL EVOLVE MAINLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN AROUND 7-8K
FEET...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES AND ALIGNS MORE
WESTERLY A BRIEF BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED WITH THIS BAND OF
SNOW...INCLUDING OUR WORKSTATION WRF RUNS AND THE 2.5KM CANADIAN
HIGH RES GEM NEST. EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY...THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE OSWEGO/JEFFERSON
COUNTY BORDER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE BAND WILL BE AT ITS
STRONGEST FOR JUST A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

OFF LAKE ERIE PARAMETERS ARE MORE MARGINAL AS MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS EARLIER AND BRINGS A LOWER INVERSION. MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY DEVELOPS A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR BUFFALO LATER TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH TEENS ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY LATE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY... A SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY
REGION INTO QUEBEC. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH
THIS WAVE... AND LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MERELY REACH THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE SAINT LAWRENCE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
THERE... THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH A CORE OF WEAK INSTABILITY TRACKING MOSTLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
BY 12Z SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
PLACE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... BUT BY 18Z SUNDAY THE CAPPING
INVERSION AND MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD DISRUPT THE LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT INTO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL
MAINLY OVER THE TUG HILL BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. THE LAKE ERIE
RESPONSE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED... WITH MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LAKE TEMPERATURES. ANY LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE BUFFALO AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINING MOST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... HAVE
WARMED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY... IT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT... AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE TUG HILL
NORTH... WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE TUG HILL NORTH WILL BE VERY
LIGHT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 20S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

ON SUNDAY... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL STALLED NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER... IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 IN THE NORTH COUNTRY... ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
WEAKLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF
WISCONSIN WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR POURING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM...A
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BACK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO JAMES BAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FROM ENCROACHING OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MAINSTREAM
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCLUDE 2 STD HEIGHT DEPARTURES FOR BOTH A WEST
COAST RIDGE AND AN ERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS
HIGHLY CORRELATED TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THIS PARTICULAR OCCURRENCE WILL MOST CERTAINLY
FOLLOW SUITE.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF SOME OF
THE SFC FEATURES...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...00Z GFS/EC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT WOULD SLOWLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL JET WAVE INTERACTS WITH
IT AND FORMS A COASTAL STORM.

AS THIS COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A TASTE OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
SHORT LIVED TIMES OF IFR VSBYS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
FLURRIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON VSBY RETURNING TO VFR. OTHERWISE AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES.

SOME LOCAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR...BUT THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK FRONT. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS NEAR KBUF
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR...THEN AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT TO QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK


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