Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN


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