Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271036
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
636 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east to New
England today. A weak cold front will then produce a few showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, before high pressure returns for early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Western and north central New York will continue to be influenced
by the mid level ridge parked over the Mid Atlantic, which will
sustain low level dry air through the day today, though some mid
and upper level moisture will increase over the area. Weak warm
air advection should help get temperatures into the lower to mid
80s, with a cooler regime close to the lakeshores.

Clouds will continue to increase tonight ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough pushing into the Upper Midwest. Steady warm air
advection and cloud cover will hold most overnight low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday will turn more unsettled as a shortwave trough moves into the
Great Lakes. This will slowly force a weak frontal boundary across
the forecast area on Sunday with a warm, humid and unstable airmass
in place. Frontal forcing and moisture advection don`t look very
impressive at the moment, and thus expect fairly scattered
convective coverage across the region that perhaps becomes slightly
more focused ahead of the frontal passage Sunday evening.
Sunday will be another fairly warm and sticky summer day, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points returning to the mid
to upper 60s. This will produce CAPE values around 1000 to 1500
J/k inland from the lake breeze boundaries, combined with deep
layer shear increasing to around 30 knots and storm motions of 25
to 30 knots could produce a few stronger storms with some gusty
winds.

By Monday, a shortwave trough will track overhead and into New
England by the afternoon. This may result in a few lingering
instability showers and cloud cover Monday morning that will both
decrease in coverage by the afternoon as drier air and subsidence
move into the region. Temperatures will take a subtle step back on
Monday, as 850 mb temperatures fall only a degree or two from
Sunday, thus highs will be in the low to mid 80s and dew points in
the lower 60s. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday
leaving dry conditions and slowly warming temperatures, a few
degrees warmer than Monday (mid 80s).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The longwave pattern will change, at least temporarily, during the
second half of next week and potentially allow for a brief push of
cooler air to enter the Great Lakes and New England. The North
Pacific wave train will amplify early next week, with a trough
moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will in turn force
downstream amplification across North America, with a ridge
centering on the high plains and a fairly deep downstream trough
developing across Quebec, forcing at least a temporary departure of
the strong, hot ridge dominating the east.

Looking at the details, a cold front associated with the deepening
Quebec trough will push southeast across the area Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. This frontal boundary will not have much moisture
to work with, as the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be largely cut off
from reaching this far north. The best large scale ascent will
remain north of the Canadian border in closer proximity to the
deepening trough. Given the relatively poor moisture and dynamics,
expect the cold front to only produce isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure will then build back into the Great Lakes Thursday and
Friday, bringing a return to mainly dry weather. Temperatures will
be notably cooler, with highs only in the lower to mid 70s by late
in the week with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Valley fog will linger through 13z with IFR/LIFR conditions
impacting KOLE and KELZ. Lighter fog at KJHW, with MVFR
restrictions included until 12z. Once the valley fog dissipates,
widespread VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the
day...with a gradual increase in mid and high cloud cover.

Outlook...
Tonight...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.
Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east to
New England today, while maintaining fair weather and fine
boating conditions. A weak cold front may then bring a few showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday, before high pressure returns for
early next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA



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