Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 102143 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING COMFORTABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE
LAKES AND LAKE PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON CU WILL PASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE AS IT ADVANCES
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALLEGANY PLATEAU REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW
WITH JUST PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WITH COOL LOWS IN THE
50S...AND MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COMFORTABLE TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHICH
IS UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL "QUIET" WX WISE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES....AT LEAST FOR
THE INITIAL BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SATURDAY...PWATS START THE UPWARD
CLIMB (+ 1.15 TO 1.25 INCHES 18Z) WHICH ISN`T TOO OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH IT STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME FOR ANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE FACTOR BEING THE
BUMP IN HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES. WITH 850H TEMPS IN THE +13 AND
+14 RANGE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES.

AFTER A RELATIVELY "QUIET" FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ON THE HEALS
OF THE INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND A MORE POTENT
AND WELL SUPPORTED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT
AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OVERNIGHT...UNDER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR MASS LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
(+1.50 INCHES)...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING FROM THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT FROM ANY CONVECTION
LOOKS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL (WBZ +10K)...ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TO A DEGREE ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY WITH GENERAL
TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE KEPT MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR HIGHS ON MONDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES...WHICH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)CARVING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WX THROUGH MOST
OF THIS TIME PERIOD AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL (500H TEMPS -17 TO
-20) SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AT THIS
POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. AFTER THAT...WITH THE COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD IT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THURSDAY. IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY RUN 10F TO 15F BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS TO
IFR/LIFR JUST PAST MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH A FEW HOURS PAST DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY STORM MAY KICK UP WAVES A BIT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. COLDER AIR PASSING OVER THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
THE LAKES AND POSSIBLY RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS










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