Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 202258
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ALSO HELPING TO CIRCULATE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR OVER OUR REGION. THE RELATIVELY BRIEF SPELL OF
UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2255Z...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...WHICH SHOW THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...
AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. IN
BOTH OF THESE AREAS...HAVE INDICATED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THESE SHOULD
TEND TO DIE DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE
SKY COVER UPWARD IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING HOURS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOW A FEW WELL-DEVELOPED BANDS OF CLOUDS
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS AS IT WAS
BEFORE...THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCO FOLLOWS BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER NE OHIO...WILL
TRACK BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE TURNED A BLIND EYE TO THIS FEATURE (IE. NOT
DEPICTED)...BUT THE CONCERN IS STILL THERE THAT IT COULD HELP TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SRN TIER. THE FEW BREAKS OF SUN
THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
THE TUNE OF AVG SBCAPES OF 1000 J/KG AS OF 18Z...AND WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FORCING FROM THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPLY
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LIKE LAST NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 FOR MOST AREAS.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL `LIFT OUT`
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL GENERALLY KEEP
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
CIRCULATED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COUPLED
WITH A WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL KEEP CHC
POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS PARTICULAR AREA...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING A
`WASH OUT` BY ANY MEANS.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG F HIGHER THAN
THOSE FROM TODAY...TRANSLATING INTO READINGS OF 80 TO 85 ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB 1000-2000
J/KG BUT THE LACK OF A DEFINED TRIGGER COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY CAPPED
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ON WEDNESDAY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE HIGHER CAPE VALUES WILL BRING A MORE LIKELY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY EVENING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO CLIMB TO 40 KTS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY BRING AN THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE ONTARIO
LAKESHORE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TOWARD 70 DEGREES. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH THE CLIMBING
DEWPOINTS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BEING A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR WILL OPEN THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY. STRONG
LATE JULY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST
AREAS AFTER THE COOL START TO THE DAY...WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE COMFORTABLY COOL
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE REGION DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS BEING INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST HELPING TO ADVECT IN
INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWERS 80S DURING BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS READINGS ACROSS MOST
AREAS ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND BRIEF/LOCALIZED ATTENDANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS AS
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SRN TIER (KJHW/KELZ)...WHERE SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT ANY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RETURN OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO AGAIN
LARGELY BE THE GENERAL RULE...SAVE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY IFR
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS BOTH NIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE PRODUCING SOMEWHAT
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...RSH






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