Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAVING ENDED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DUE TO INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE/SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE PULLED ALL
POPS FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
REDEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A
1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A
WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3
INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING HIGHER WAVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES UP UNTIL THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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