National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBUF 192302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER...COOL NIGHT...AND COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIKE LAST NIGHT IT WILL TURN COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PERSIST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY COOL INTO THE 50S THIS EVENING...AND
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPOTS IN THE VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.

LIKE LAST NIGHT SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND INTO THE VALLEYS OF WYOMING AND SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY.
WITH THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...WILL
INCLUDE VALLEY FOG IN THE SAME PLACES IT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIP TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY. ALOFT BUILDING 500 HPA HEIGHTS...AND 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +10 TO +12C WILL PROMOTE A WARMER DAY
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL
RISE SOME ALSO...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50F OR LOWER...WHICH
IS STILL COMFORTABLE.

AGAIN WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS FORMING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE GREATEST NUMBER OF
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE HILLS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE 850-500 HPA LAYER MOISTURE IS DEEPEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BUILD MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTION
OF A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A PRECIPITATION FREE
PERIOD IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE. WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE THETA E
ADVECTION AND RESULT IN EFFECTIVE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY...WE CONTINUED THE LOW END PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH MAKES
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SOME INHERENT BREAKDOWN OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TAKES PLACE. BETTER RETURN FLOW BRINGS MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS THE MOST
LIKELY TRIGGER FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME DEGREE OF DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOW FOR THE DETAILS...LATEST 12Z GFS GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUMP AN EVER INCREASING WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...ONE THING IS FOR SURE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER WILL EXHIBIT TO SOME DEGREE WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MOS GUIDANCE AND WPC SHOW MAX TEMPS
RANGING BETWEEN 82F-87F ACROSS MOST OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 23Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIKE LAST NIGHT...SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT
IMPACT THE KJHW AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND VARIABLE
AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS