Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS LATE MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR METRO ROCHESTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...ONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
AND A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR LAKE HURON. MORNING 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING DISPLAYS A WEALTH OF MOISTURE BENEATH 500 HPA. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW...AND LIFT
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDED DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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