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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Vermont this morning will drift off the
coast of New England by tonight. This will continue dry and
comfortable weather today before a slow moving cold front arrives on
Thursday with some showers and thunderstorms. Another area of high
pressure will then provide mainly dry weather Friday into this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is centered over Vermont this morning with low
amplitude mid-level ridging cresting over New York. Infrared
satellite imagery and surface obs show widespread low stratus
lingers from Rochester east across the northern Finger Lakes into
central NY. Clear skies from the upper Genesee Valley westward is
supporting typical river valley fog across the western Southern Tier.
Temperatures are in the 50s where clear skies are found with low
60s in most locations beneath the blanket of low stratus.

After sunrise, High pressure will begin to shift eastward off the
coast of New England. Low stratus will likely linger across central
New York through much of the day with some slow erosion from west to
east. River Valley fog will lift by mid-morning. After this expect
skies to range from mostly cloudy over Lake Ontario to mainly sunny
across the western Southern Tier. The high pressure will continue
dry weather. Increasing southerly flow on the back side of the
surface high will help to boost our temperatures back up into the
mid to upper 70s with a few local 80 degree readings possible this
afternoon.

Most of tonight should still remain dry ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front should push to just west of Buffalo by daybreak
Thursday. Models continue to show some showers should arrive ahead
of the front first in the Saint Lawrence Valley and North Country
then across Lake Ontario north of the NYS Thruway. Kept POPs in the
chance range as activity will likely be scattered with just hit and
miss showers early Thursday. Otherwise, dewpoints will continue to
climb as the lower Great Lakes comes under strengthening warm and
moist southerly flow. Temps may actually rise late in the night.
Expect lows to bottom out only in the lower to mid 60s with
with upper 60s possible for lows near the lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models remain uncertain with respect to the timing of primary
surface boundary pushing south through the area Thursday. At this
time, it appears the boundary will work through he bulk of the area
during the afternoon. Moisture convergence in vicinity of the
boundary will maintain solid chances for convection. Modest
instability and ample shear will interact with a favorable afternoon
timing to possibly allow for a few stronger storms.

Precipitation chances look to diminish Thursday night into Friday as
boundary eases through and drier air begins to push into the region
sending the the bulk of precipitation south of the region. There is
some chance for renewed convection during the afternoon Friday as
lake breezes set up. Strong upper ridging and surface high pressure
will then settle into the area Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Picture perfect weekend weather on tap for all of western NY and the
North Country. On Saturday a splitting trough will move east of the
forecast area, with the southern portion settling over Virginia and
North Carolina while the northern portion exits through the Canadian
maritimes. The result for us will be a pool of cooler air aloft
advecting across the region in the wake of this trough passage. 850
mb temperatures around +8/+9C with a northerly wind picking up lake
moisture and upsloping will allow for cloudiness to linger through
Saturday morning, before diurnal mixing helps break clouds in a
cumulus field for the afternoon. High temps Saturday will be
slightly below normal in the mid 70s with low humidity. Ridging
builds into the region Sunday with warming 850 mb temps back into
the low teens C, which will push our afternoon highs back to near
normal with highs around 80. Sunday will feature more abundant
sunshine as high pressure builds overhead.

Model solutions diverge for the start of next week with differences
in the magnitude of a trough over easter Canada. A stronger trough
may force a weak cold frontal passage through the area with some
scattered showers and a very subtle few degrees cooler in
temperature to near normal. A weaker trough would keep the stretch
of dry weather going from the weekend right into the early next week
with slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure centered over Vermont this morning. Extensive area of
low stratus (MVFR) remains over the Finger Lakes into central New
York including KART and KROC also seeing some occasional lower cigs.
Mainly clear skies across western NY has allowed for some river
valley fog to extend into KJHW.

After sunrise, high pressure will push east off New England while
continuing to support fair dry weather for western and central NY.
Any residual MVFR/IFR conditions at daybreak will give way to VFR
weather regionwide by 12/13z.

A cold front will advance toward the area tonight. While most sites
will remain dry with just increasing clouds through 06z there is a
low chance of a shower or thunderstorm at KART. This may be added
for future forecast updates as confidence in timing increases.

Outlook...
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms
becoming likely.
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will continue light winds and
negligible waves across the Lower Great Lakes and their adjoining
bodies of water through today. While winds will freshen a little
ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, winds and waves are
forecast to remain below small craft advisory criteria through
Thursday. The only concern will be an increasing risk for
thunderstorms as we push from late tonight (Lake Ontario) into
Thursday (all of Lower Great Lakes region).

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH