Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 290725
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
325 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slide by our northwest today...with occasional
showers and some embedded thunderstorms tapering off from west to
east following the passage of its trailing cold front. After this
system exits our area...a large upper level trough will then meander
its way across the region through much of the upcoming week...bringing
periodic opportunities for additional showers and storms along with
near to slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 07z...regional surface analysis shows modest low pressure draped
across Lake Huron and nearby southern Ontario...with its attendant warm
front extending across western New York...and its trailing cold front
situated across western Lake Erie and east-central Ohio.

While precipitation coverage across our region is still largely widely
scattered to scattered...this has begun to increase again along the warm
front...and the activity is still expected to become more widespread from
west to east through early this morning as the cold front approaches and
increasing height falls/shortwave energy overspread our region aloft.
For this reason we have maintained widespread high-end categorical PoPs
early this morning...even though the bulk of the precipitation will
ultimately arrive a bit later than had originally been thought.

As today progresses...the surface low will lift northeastward while
gradually getting absorbed by a much broader low over central Ontario
Province. As this occurs...this feature will push its trailing cold
front across our region from west to east...with this boundary clearing
the Genesee Valley by about midday...before turning more diffuse as
it slowly oozes east across the remainder of the area this afternoon.
Fairly widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms out ahead of the
front will taper off from west to east as much drier air and strong
subsidence overspread the region in its wake...with the latter also
promoting the development of a good deal of sunshine from about the
Finger Lakes westward this afternoon. While our airmass will turn
marginally "cooler" in the wake of the frontal passage...850 mb temps
will still range from +10C to +12C...and this in concert with the renewed
sunshine and good mixing will help promote widespread highs in the
mid to upper 70s from about the Finger Lakes westward...though areas
immediately northeast of Lake Erie will see cooler highs (in the upper
60s/lower 70s) thanks to a freshening southwesterly breeze off the
cooler lake waters. Further east clouds and precipitation will linger
longer...resulting in highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s east
of Lake Ontario.

Moving on into tonight...the aforementioned drier air and subsidence
should result in mainly dry conditions this evening...before the
persistent low over Ontario Province pushes a secondary cold front
into our region overnight. Coupled with another round of height falls
aloft...this will drive another west-east increase in cloud cover and
bring renewed chances for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise...expect another mild night thanks to a persistent southerly
low level flow in advance of the front...which will result in overnight
lows mostly ranging between 55 and 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
While the bulk of this forecast period will be dry...there will be
the likelihood for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms both
Tuesday and Wednesday. The overlying synoptic feature responsible
for the unsettled afternoons will be a large closed off upper level
storm over eastern Canada that will occasionally circulate impulses
of energy and their associated weak surface frontal boundaries
across our region. These subtle features within a moist and
conditionally unstable airmass will be the focus for convection...
with weak lift from the deep cyclonic flow and added diurnal
instability adding to their likelihood. On the flip side of this
scenario will be a stabilizing lake shadow that will temper...if not
completely squelch...the convective coverage within a corridor from
Lake Erie the Thousand Island region. As for the details...

A 125kt H25 jet streaking by immediately to our southeast will be
the main feature to watch on Tuesday. It will generate a ribbon of
channelled vorticity that will support enhanced convection across
parts of the Southern Tier...Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
regions...right where one of the aforementioned surface boundaries
will be slowly pushing east. This boundary will be synoptic in
nature...yet as the day matures...it should intensify as it will be
reinforced by the eastern edge of the Lake Erie `shadow`. While
likely pops were already in place for the affected area...they were
concentrated in the afternoon. Will speed up the timing...as
convection will already be underway as day breaks. Do not expect
enough instability at this earlier time for strong/severe
convection...but that may not be case as this activity pushes
further east into central and eastern New York. The good news is
that the afternoon for these areas may now be dry. Meanwhile...a
strengthening lake breeze off Lake Erie will produce a pronounced/
text book lake shadow from the Niagara Frontier and Rochester Metro
area to the Thousand Islands. Winds within this corridor could gust
as high as 35 mph during the midday and afternoon. H85 temps in the
vcnty of 8-10 C will allow afternoon mercury readings to climb into
the lower 70s in most areas. It will be much cooler in downtown
Buffalo and in the Thousand Islands region.

With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of a focusing
trigger...leftover showers early Tuesday evening will give way to
fair conditions regionwide. Temperatures Tuesday night will settle
back through the 50s.

Wednesday will feature another day where the eastern lake breeze
boundary off Lake Erie will generate some showers and thunderstorms
over portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Unlike
the day before when the activity was supported/enhanced by
channelled vorticity...the showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
should be more typical of lake breeze driven convection. That is..
it should wait for diurnal instability to build up through the
morning before becoming initiated during the midday and afternoon.
The downwind shadow off Lake Erie will likely not be as pronounced
as the day before...and while it should still help to `protect`
areas from the Niagara Frontier to the Thousand Islands from
widespread convection...height falls from the passing mid level
trough could be enough to allow some showers or storms to move
through. In regards to temperatures...it will be cooler as H85 temps
near 5c will keep the region in the 60s for the afternoon.

Any leftover showers Wednesday evening will quickly die off as
notable drier air in the mid levels will accompany high pressure
that will nose across the Lower Great Lakes from the Ohio Valley.
The vast majority of Wednesday night will feature dry and relatively
cool weather. Temperatures will drop into the lower 50s across the
lake plains...with 40s anticipated across the Southern Tier and
portions of the North Country.

While a weakly cyclonic flow will still be in place over our region
on Thursday...high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states
will help to encourage fair dry weather. It will still be on the
cool side of normal with highs generally ranging from the mid 60s
across the North Country to within a couple degrees of 70 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A high latitude omega block featuring a staunch ridge over the
Canadian prairies and a closed low over eastern Canada will remain
in place for the bulk of this period. This will keep a deep cyclonic
flow over the Great Lakes region with daytime temperatures over our
forecast area averaging at least 5 deg below normal. The silver
lining to the cool weather is that after we experience some showers
and thunderstorms on Friday...mainly dry weather is anticipated for
the weekend.

On Friday...there is fairly good model consensus that a cold front
will push southeast across our region. Have thus raised pops to high
chc regionwide for scattered showers and thunderstorms. While H85
temps ahead of this front will allow max temps on Friday to climb to
near 70...we can anticipate day to day cooling as we progress
through the weekend.

As the stacked low over eastern Canada pushes east to the maritimes
during the course of the weekend...an expansive surface high will
build south across the Great Lakes from Hudson Bay. This will offer
fair cool weather for our region...although steep low level lapse
rates each afternoon within the fall like airmass could support
isolated showers. The highest chance for such widely separated
showers will be found across the North Country. Max temps both days
of the weekend will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 07z...regional surface analysis shows modest low pressure draped
across Lake Huron and nearby southern Ontario...with its attendant warm
front extending across western New York...and its trailing cold front
situated across western Lake Erie and east-central Ohio.

While precipitation coverage across our region is still largely widely
scattered to scattered...this has begun to increase again along the warm
front...and the activity is still expected to become more widespread from
west to east through early this morning as the cold front approaches
our region. Consequently...our current general VFR conditions with spotty
embedded IFR/MVFR should tend to deteriorate to more widespread MVFR/IFR
through early this morning.

As today progresses...showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west
to east following the passage of the cold front...which should clear the
Genesee Valley by about midday...before slowly oozing east across the
remainder of the area this afternoon.  Expect a mix of IFR/MVFR ahead
of and along the front to improve back to VFR from west to east as much
drier air overspreads the region in its wake.

Tonight...expect mainly dry VFR conditions during the evening...before a
secondary cold front pushes into the region overnight and brings a renewed
opportunity for some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. While
mainly VFR flight conditions should continue to predominate overnight...
some brief/localized reductions to MVFR cannot be totally ruled out within
any showers or storms.

Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR...with localized MVFR possible
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass across southern Ontario today...with occasional
showers and embedded thunderstorms tapering off from west to east behind
its trailing cold front. In the wake of the front...winds will veer to
southwesterly and freshen to around 15 knots...resulting in a light to
moderate chop on the northeastern ends of the lakes. This said...winds
and waves are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

A secondary cold front will then cross the region later tonight and
Tuesday morning...with another round of scattered showers and storms
marking its passage. In the wake of this second boundary...southwesterly
winds will again freshen across the Lower Lakes region on Tuesday...
particularly over Lake Erie where winds and/or waves could reach lower-
end advisory levels.

Looking further out in time...a broad upper level trough will linger
across the region through the middle and latter portions of the week...
resulting in a continued general southwesterly to westerly flow...
with this again potentially pushing advisory levels on Lake Erie on
Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/WOOD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.