Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281837
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
237 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and patchy fog will linger into tonight with light
northerly winds. High pressure building south across the Great Lakes
will allow clouds to slowly erode on Wednesday with mainly clear
skies expected by Wednesday night. Our next storm system will bring
rain later Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will run near to
slightly above normal through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface analysis this afternoon shows a weak cold front pushing into
eastern NY with expansive arctic sourced high pressure centered over
Manitoba. This high is building south across the upper and central
Great Lakes behind the front. Radars showing all rain showers have
now exited east of the forecast area with the front. A lingering
moist airmass and northerly winds off the lakes continue to support
the widespread low clouds and patches of fog across the area. The
northerly flow will continue through tonight as the high pressure
noses across our region with clouds and patchy fog lingering as
moisture becomes trapped beneath a subsidence inversion.

On Wednesday, surface ridging will continue to build over western
and central New York. Clouds will be slow to erode with northerly
winds but drier air from the north should eventually bring some slow
clearing through the afternoon. The northerly winds will keep
temperatures nearly steady of slowly falling through the remainder
of the afternoon. Tonight, the lingering clouds will keep most of
western NY and the Finger Lakes just above freezing, though some
pockets of freezing or below temperatures could be found in the
colder valleys of the western Southern Tier. Most areas east of Lake
Ontario will dip to the lower 30s and upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure transiting Hudson Bay will extend ridging into the
Great Lakes region during the mid-week period. This will provide a
period of quiet weather and at least some sunshine. However...things
start downhill again Thursday night...as a southern stream closed
low ejects from the southern Rockies. Associated precipitation will
begin to push into the region from the west on Thursday night.

Wednesday night through Thursday...looks quiet...with an upper
level shortwave ridge axis moving overhead. Shallow cool air
will be pushing into the region on a general northerly low level
flow with 850 mb temperatures down to around -8C. This will try
to generate to generate some lake clouds...especially south of
Lake Ontario, though a dry airmass will hinder this process.
Still...expect no worse than partly cloudy skies for Wednesday
night with plenty of locales mostly clear.

Thursday...high level then eventually mid clouds will be thickening
from southwest to northeast...as stronger warm advection shifts into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southern/eastern Great Lakes. A
tightening baroclinic zone over the region ahead of a developing
warm front should support at least some showers over the far western
counties later in the afternoon...while dry weather will persist
east of a Rochester to Canandaigua line.

Thursday night...a surface low will push from the mid Mississippi
Valley up into the Ohio Valley while a fairly strong warm front will
push north across our western counties. Fairly widespread rain will
blossom ahead of this feature...so have raised pops to 90 over the
west and to likely across the North Country. While some wet snow
could mix in for sites north and east of the Tug Hill...
accumulations are not anticipated at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
Four Corners region through Tuesday, then eject ENE across the
southern Plains to the Ohio Valley by Friday. The 12Z guidance has
trended a little southward with the track of the ensuing surface
low, but still more than close enough for more rain over the region
through Friday.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
off the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the Lower Great Lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard. The 12Z GFS develops a few showers of rain and wet snow
later Saturday night and Sunday with a weak northern stream trough,
but for now favored the drier ECMWF solution for this time period.

Temperatures will likely run near to slightly above average through
the period, with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs in low clouds with patchy IFR vis in fog
will continue this afternoon and into tonight. This is brought on as
high pressure building across the Great Lakes traps low level
moisture below an inversion with northerly winds off the lakes.

Most sites will improve to or hold at MVFR cigs through much of
Wednesday with no change in the above mentioned pattern. ART
has the best chance of improving to VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR.
Thursday night into Saturday...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain showers.
Sunday...some improvement to VFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly winds will increase some tonight through Wednesday
as strong Canadian high pressure builds across the Great
Lakes...however winds and waves are expected to remain below
advisory levels. Winds will turn easterly Thursday and Friday as our
next storm system passes south of the Great Lakes. Winds will
approach 15-20 knots but higher waves should remain in Canadian
waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH


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