Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300545
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A VERY WARM START TO THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT BRING WARMER
AIR...AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS POISED TO OUR WEST ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING
EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE DOMINANT RIDGE POSITION WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE FLIRTING
WITH +18C...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS BEING
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN.
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL RUN JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND ON THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE READINGS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SW NEW YORK STATE WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL FOLLOW HE
INFLUX OF A HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO 70
DEGREES AND NIGHTTIME TO EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO THE REGIONS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...NAM12 SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF HEAVIEST RAIN OVER FAR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE THEN ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHEREAS GFS HAS TWO REGIONS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE
NAM12 BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 2
INCHES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AS ITS
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. NAM12 SHOWS A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
WITH CAPE NEARING 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICIES CROSSING INTO
NEGATIVE TERRITORY.

MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NOTABLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON TIMING. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...A
WEAK BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGS A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUE CHANCE OF
PRECIP AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BRUSH THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD WILL ALSO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES WITH CIGS IN THE 035-050 RANGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS/VSBY WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
SATURATE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL IFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BECOMING MAINLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ON THE LAKES AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND
A WEAKENING LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE WAVE ACTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE
LAKES...THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH 4FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE TO BUILD INTO THE 2-4FT RANGE ON
THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND JUST A
LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES FOR THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...WOOD




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