Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK


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