Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 212255
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
655 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEK MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THIS A VORT MAX WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO PENNSYLVENNIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWERS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS
FOUND IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AROUND 5K FEET
VERSES RECENT DAYS THAT WERE 10K OR HIGHER.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTHWARD TOMORROW MORNING IT MAY PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AGAIN DYNAMICS ARE
STRONG...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BUT
MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...THE CLEARING OF THE SKY WILL FIRST
BE FOUND OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS CLEARING WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH A SEASONALLY COLD AIRMASS /-2 TO -
5 C 850 MB TEMPS/ OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST
AND EVEN A POTENTIAL IN FREEZE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE AN
OVERNIGHT FREEZE ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY...AS WELL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AWAY FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSER...PROMOTING VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WHICH
WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CHAUTAUQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE TROUBLE GOING CALM...EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR LOW-
LAYING PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. AREAS
SURROUNDING THIS FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED FROST ADVISORIES ONCE
CONFIDENCE GROWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AS TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID 30S APPEARS LIKELY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WITH H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION MODIFYING TO BETWEEN +4
AND 6C BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE...THIS WILL GENERATE
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. A MILDER FLOW OF AIR BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
FROM QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID WEST. WHILE
WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...OUR TREND OF CLIMBING MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THERE ARE THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLES THAT RIDGING PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVER OUR
REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKELY IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PERIOD LEADING UP TO THIS AS
WELL...AS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH
SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INDISCRIMINATE SHORTWAVES RIDING
UP ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO PRODUCE DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF THE GROWING SEASON WOULD
CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED. MOST AREAS ARE RUNNING ONE TO TWO INCHES
BELOW NORMAL WITH RAINFALL THIS MONTH...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
AVERAGING MORE THAN FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS VORT
MAX...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. AFTER THIS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
DROP FROM N-S ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS WILL LOWER CLOSE TO
3K FT AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NAM/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WSW 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH A MODEST SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW
IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXING AND WITH WINDS ALREADY
INCREASING AT DUNKIRK WILL HOIST A BRIEF SCA. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD ONLY LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...VEERING
WINDS AROUND TO WESTERLY WILL INCREASE WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES PEAKING AROUND 3 FEET. WINDS NEARING 15 TO 18 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SUSTAIN THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ON LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A SCA AT THIS POINT IS STILL TOO LOW
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND WILL QUIET CONDITIONS WIND/WAVE-WISE ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ007-008-012-013-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



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