Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280218
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOGETHER WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
OVER...WITH DRY BUT STILL COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.  THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY.  A
WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAY TWO AREAS OF SNOW...ONE A BAND
ORIENTED OVER THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MOUTH OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD. THE SECOND
AREA IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

A WEAK NORTH TO SOUTH BOUNDARY WAS SEEN FAINTLY ON RADAR THIS
EVENING CROSSING LAKE ERIE JUST AHEAD OF THE BAND OF SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY BROUGHT ADDED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED SNOW JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH SEVERAL
INCHES FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SINCE
CROSSED THE PLUME OF SNOW...AND WITH NOW LESS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THE BAND IS SEEN IN A WEAKENING STATE THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL HERE.

THE NOW DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY...WITH LAKE
EFFECT THEREFORE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE...KROC WEST...WELL REMOVED FROM ANY EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE
TO THE EAST.  SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A NEARING UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND...BUT MOST
ACCUMULATIONS...1-3 INCHES...SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORELINE AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.  EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS...AND
POSSIBLY LOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WELL
REMOVED FROM LAKE INFLUENCES.

ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER A LOWERING
INVERSION WILL INITIALLY TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT STILL POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY EXPECT
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH AS INSOLATION EATS AWAY AT THE
CLOUD DECK FROM THE TOP DOWN.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER THAN
LATE MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
WELL INTO THE TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TO FILTER THROUGH. AFTER A COLD START TO THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 30S NORTH COUNTRY.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CUTTING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE EARLY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SPORTS BUT RISING
READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE A HYBRID OF MID
LEVEL PACIFIC AND LOW LEVEL GULF MODIFIED CONTINENTAL WHICH IS SEEMS
ADEQUATE FOR THE QUARTER INCH OR SO OF MODEL QPF. THERE WILL BE SOME
WET BULB COOLING GIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN
PLAIN SNOW.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC MONDAY.
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING DURING THE MID TO LATE
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE
PATTERN SETUP. 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST ASCENT SIGNAL RIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST
SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AS FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OR
SOME SOME SNEAKY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE UNDER SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMING IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MUCH BETTER
SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME WITH A STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S OR PERHAPS A BIT WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE FIRST WEEKEND IN APRIL. IF THIS VERIFIES
TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 00Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATE ACROSS
WNY AS A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPED BEHIND A RECENTLY
DEPARTED COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS WNY...AND TOGETHER BOTH FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL ACROSS WNY.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT ENSUES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF WESTERN NY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE THROUGH SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...ZAFF






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