Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270028
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
828 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms that pushed through a good portion of the
forecast area this afternoon have largely moved east out of the
forecast area and/or dissipated this evening. This will leave
Western and North-Central New York to stew in a very warm and muggy
airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May tonight as
dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given
the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier
rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to
mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie
only falling into the upper 60s.

Finally, there will be a slight chance for a round of showers late
tonight/early Friday morning across the Southern Tier, tied to
another upper level shortwave currently depicted over NW Ohio. This
disturbance is progged to weaken by the time it reaches the Southern
Tier...nonetheless given the soupy airmass in place, an isolated
shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Moving farther into Friday, upper level ridging building into the
Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as
850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid
80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley
possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a
detrimental effect on the development of any organized
convection...however, given the moist and unstable airmass in place
with SBCAPES progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon
inland from the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake
breeze boundaries providing the impetus for convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday.  This will bring mid-
summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries
or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to
smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will
heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to
mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z, convection has largely moved out of the forecast area,
setting the stage for a generally quiet night with VFR conditions at
most locations. However, there will be a risk for patchy fog across
portions of the forecast area given high surface dewpoints in the
60s and light winds, primarily across the areas that saw heavier
rain today. A secondary weak disturbance may bring a few more
showers to the Southern Tier around 09-12Z Friday, however
confidence in this feature and resultant convective potential
remains low.

Moving into Friday, the warm, moist, and unstable airmass in place
will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Any convection should be largely
tied to the lake breeze and be confined to high terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the afternoon, with little threat
expected across TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will settle over the east coast through the
holiday weekend. An increase in heat and humidity will allow some
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will remain
fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern
will continue through the end of the week, although thunderstorms
may produce locally higher winds and waves at times each day through
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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