Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271755
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL BE WARM
AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERES A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG AGAIN FORMING FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY.

THE BIG STORY OF FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT
THOSE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT CLIMB WELL INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SUMMER HEAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS
PROMINENT SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO AROUND +20C...YIELDING HIGHS THAT WILL RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER WITH MOST AREAS APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK
WHILE ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WILL CROSS INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE WARMEST
SPOTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE READINGS MAY CLIMB
INTO THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WILL ADD MUGGINESS TO THE HEAT AS WELL...PUSHING HEAT INDICES
INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE
VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THEY WILL
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO HOT DAYS...THE NIGHTS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING OUT OF
THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY AREAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW
70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WARM AIR POOLS
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY AND NOMINALLY COOLER BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT
THAT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE MAY
BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOULD IT CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING IT MAY HAVE A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY COOLER READINGS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE
LAKESHORES TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY IN SPITE OF THE PRESENCE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. INSTEAD LOOK FOR
SUNSHINE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A RELATIVELY PLEASANT UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT`S READINGS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKES ONCE AGAIN.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS OUT AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER HUDSON BAY.
THE TIMING OF ANY ONE OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA IS DICEY THIS FAR
OUT...BUT FOR TIME BEING WILL GO WITH BROADBRUSHED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH CONVECTION AT LEAST BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE AWASH IN A MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
-SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF KART WITH DEVELOPING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE
MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF VALLY FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN



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