Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271720
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
120 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES TOGETHER WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
OVER...WITH DRY BUT STILL COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED WINTER-LIKE WEATHER.  A
WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BURST OF SNOW AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
NY.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH WITH A SMOOTH
APPEARANCE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE
APPARENT AND TOPPING OUT AT ABOUT 6000FT.

NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH A STEADILY
COOLING AIRMASS ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY PROMOTE A LAKE RESPONSE AS
SEEN FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. THE FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE
EFFECT THEREFORE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE...KROC WEST...WELL REMOVED FROM ANY EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE
TO THE EAST.  SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER
INLAND...BUT MOST ACCUMULATIONS...1-3 INCHES...SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORELINE AREAS.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE OVER MOST OF THE REGION.  EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS...AND POSSIBLY LOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WELL REMOVED FROM LAKE INFLUENCES.

ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER A LOWERING
INVERSION WILL INITIALLY TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT STILL POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY EXPECT
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH AS INSOLATION EATS AWAY AT THE
CLOUD DECK FROM THE TOP DOWN.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER THAN
LATE MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY
AIRMASS EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DOWN WELL INTO
THE TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE COLDER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TO FILTER THROUGH. AFTER A
CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 30S NORTH COUNTRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO WESTERN NY WITH WET
SNOW STILL FAVORED ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL
BE MUCH MILDER...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FARTHER EAST.

ON MONDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL LEAVE THE MOST ORGANIZED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. STILL...EXPECT ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND WET SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD PREVENT ANY
ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST HILLTOPS...BUT EVEN THERE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ON TUESDAY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR WET SNOW/RAIN MIX TO THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM THINGS ARE LOOKING UP TEMPERATURE WISE.

THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE IS BEAT DOWN BY A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FORCE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION...WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE UNDER SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN...BUT SHOULD ALSO PUMP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE WARMTH MAY LAST FOR ONE MORE
DAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT THEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALLOW THE TROUGH TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE FIRST WEEKEND IN APRIL. IF THIS
VERIFIES TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF WESTERN NY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A
MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TO CROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND LAKE EFFECT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY DOMINATES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF WESTERN NY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A
MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TO CROSS THE REGION RESULTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ030-042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF







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