Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 250614

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

High pressure will drift slowly east and off the Mid Atlantic coast
through tonight. This feature will provide our region with fair and
dry weather through this evening. A pair of mid level disturbances
will then cross the region late tonight through Thursday night and
provide a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure will then bring a return to dry weather for Friday through
most of the weekend.


Radar loops show convection which has developed upstream
has successfully held together despite entering a more stable
atmosphere across Western New York. This may be due to a stronger
LLJ which is across our region, positioned to the north of a
convective complex which is diving into Southeastern Ohio. Mid
level moisture and elevated instability from this may be helping
hold this are of showers together. There are even a few embedded
thunderstorms within this. Based on this will raise POPS across
Western New York early this morning. 00Z guidance has started to
pick up on these convective trends, with a consensus of guidance
gradually weakening these showers as them move into the Eastern
Lake Ontario region mid to late morning.

Drier air mid-level air should move in behind this wave and
provide mainly dry weather for much of today. Showers should end
from west to east, with some breaks of sunshine around mid- day.
Mesoscale guidance develops what will probably rather sparse
showers inland of lake breeze boundaries southeast of Lake Ontario
and east of Lake Erie. Outside of the, expect today to be mainly
dry. A second shortwave trough will approach the region late this
afternoon into this evening. This will bring an increasing chance
for showers and possibly a thunderstorm late in the day.

Today will be a more uncomfortable day temperature and humidity
wise, as 850 mb temperatures linger in the upper teens C,
resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s, and dew points linger
in the upper 60s to low 70s. This afternoon may also be a bit
breezy with the subsidence behind the leading shortwave helping to
transport some higher gusts of 25 mph to surface across the lake


Unsettled weather will continue into Thursday night as a final slug
of higher theta-e air passes across the region in association with a
mid-level trough. This should trigger a final round of showers and
thunderstorms as the trough moves through. Although the airmass will
certainly be primed with plenty of moisture allowing for brief
periods of heavy rain, the flow regime aloft is progressive and not
conducive to training/back-building, and the concern for widespread
heavy rain is diminishing, and as a result have pulled mention from

After an unsettled start to the period Thursday night, the forecast
area will see a return to a quiet and dry regime moving into the
weekend as a cool front slides across the area Friday morning and an
amplifying upper level ridge moves overhead, ensuring plenty of
sunshine from Friday through Saturday night. Likewise, after
enduring another muggy night in the upper 60s/lower 70s Thursday
night, we will see temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday
and Saturday. Drier air and clear skies will allow for cooler
temperatures Friday night, with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s,while by Saturday night southerly flow returns, signaling the
return of increasingly warm and humid air to the region - reflected
in lows in the mid to upper 60s along the lake plains.


Surface ridging over the southeast will relax a bit across the
region as a shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes into
Canada and its trailing cold front approaches the area to begin this

Sunday should be the hottest day with 850H temperatures nearing
+20C. This will translate into surface highs in the upper 80s across
the higher terrain to the lower 90s across the lake plains. In
addition to the heat, humidity levels will also ramp up as southerly
flow picks up and draws moisture up across the region. This will
introduce a chance of a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms
inland from the lakes especially along any lake breeze boundaries.
Sunday night, as the front begins to enter Western and North Central
New York expect increasing chances for additional showers and

Looking into next week, the front is forecast to slowly slide south
through Western and North Central New York Monday. Although, how
fast this occurs and how far the front pushes south is uncertain at
this point. The GFS moves the front out with surface high pressure
building into the region with mainly dry weather through Wednesday.
The ECMWF stalls the front just to our south over Pennsylvania which
will keep a slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms across
the Southern Tier through late Tuesday. Overall, despite the
differences it looks to be primarily dry after Monday with high
temperatures above normal, low 80s.


High pressure will remain in place off the Mid Atlantic coast
through overnight. A modest low level jet will help drive an area
of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms across the area early
this morning. For the most part, expect mainly VFR conditions with
this, but cigs should lower behind it as winds aloft diminish.
This LLJ will also result in some wind shear, but this is expected
to fall short of criteria for inclusion in the TAFS.

Expect MVFR-IFR conditions to develop behind this wave as winds
aloft diminish and low level moisture pools. This should mix out
during the day, with cigs lifting late morning or early afternoon.
Mainly VFR conditions should persist until the next wave arrives
late afternoon or early evening. This will bring another chance
for showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Showers and storms will
move from west to east.


Friday thru Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday... Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.


High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic coastline through
overnight. Southwesterly winds will increase later tonight at the
northeast end of Lakes Erie and Ontario, with winds approaching
Small Craft Advisory levels briefly shortly before daybreak.

Thursday and Thursday night a cold front will ease its way across
the Lower Lakes. This feature will bring a few rounds of scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region...with freshening
southwesterlies out in advance of the front veering to westerly
following its passage Thursday night... then gradually diminishing
on Friday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will again
get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later Thursday and Thursday
evening with the approach of the cold front.





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