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000
FXUS64 KFWD 120446 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAF/

CONCERNS...STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

STRONG NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP T0 35
KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE CLOSER TO 15-25 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KTS BETWEEN
00-01Z...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOME
LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A DURANT OKLAHOMA TO
DOWNTOWN FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE LINE AS OF 930 PM. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 AM
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH KICKAPOO AIRPORT IN WICHITA FALLS HAVING REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 48 MPH AT 851 PM CDT. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A NORTH OF WICHITA KANSAS TO NORTH OF
CHILDRESS AND NORTH OF LUBBOCK LINE AT 2 PM AND MAKING GOOD
FORWARD PROGRESS. THE DRYLINE WAS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO SOME OF
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE THE GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
INTACT AS WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE 15-20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH MONTAGE COUNTY AROUND 7
PM...DFW 9-10 PM AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA AROUND/BY
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE 10 PM STARTING TIME FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO START OCCURRING. STILL EXPECT GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH DUE TO 50-55
KNOT WINDS AT 925MB ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH COOLER WITH WINDS STARTING TO
COME DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 1 PM. AS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
AFTER MIDDAY. IF WINDS DON/T COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MID-
AFTERNOON THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

AS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MANY RURAL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20/30 WILL LIKELY
FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WHICH IS
WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. AREAS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE THE WINDS RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...THUS THEY MAY REACH FREEZING ONLY
BRIEFLY BEFORE MECHANICAL MIXING MOVES TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES.

DRY AND WARMER ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS OUR TWO MAIN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERENT RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN THROUGH NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NORTH MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN KEEPING THE
TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEN MOVES IT
EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES
THE SOUTHERN END TO SOUTHERN BAJA WHERE IT PINCHES OFF A CLOSED
LOW LATE MONDAY. BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE FEASIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS MORE PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR THIS
FORECAST...HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A GFS/EC 60-40 SPLIT WITH LOW
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  58  37  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              41  59  33  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             41  55  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            40  58  32  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          39  57  32  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            43  58  38  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           42  58  34  62  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         44  58  35  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            42  60  33  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  58  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ103.


&&

$$

82/58