Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 031716
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.

THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY OR AFTER MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT
WILL TRY TO RESTRICT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WILL SHOW VCSH
IN TAFS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN A BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY
WHICH MAY INTERRUPT THE PREVAILING S/SW FLOW EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT
OCCUR ON STATION. WILL SHOW VARIABLE WINDS TEMPO GROUP.

FOR WACO...PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 / 100  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  60  60  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  50  40  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  50  50  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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