Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 292035
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 3 PM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES
SHIFTING EAST DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HAVE
ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENTS
ACROSS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE 30 PERCENTS
WILL REMAIN.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY SO HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS
LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO LAMPASAS AND SOME
LINGERING 20S FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO CAMERON LINE
SATURDAY EVENING. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO EMORY LINE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE REGION LABOR DAY
AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE EXTREMELY STRONG BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
NEAR TERMINAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. A DISTINCT VORT MAX ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSPS. THIS FEATURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
EAST...PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BEGINNING 21-22Z. SINCE
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT WORKED OVER BY MORNING
CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. WE WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE VCTS IN THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX FROM 22Z UNTIL 02-03Z...AND LIKELY INCLUDE KACT AS
WELL. A TEMPO GROUP MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED LATER IF CURRENT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING REDEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRENDS LEAN TO A
MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES AFTER O3Z/10 PM THIS EVENING. 30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  77 /  40  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             72  91  72  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  96  74  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  93  73  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  97  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           73  93  75  95  75 /  40  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  76  96  75 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  74  96  75 /  40  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  97  72  98  73 /  30  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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