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000
FXUS64 KFWD 161719
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20G30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MVFR STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH LIGHTER AND
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THAN USUAL...IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP METROPLEX TAFS ABOVE
1000FT. FOR WACO PROBABILITY A LITTLE HIGHER FOR IFR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS
TO BE SLOWER TO LIFT THAN USUAL TOMORROW...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
2000FT UNTIL 17Z/NOON...BUT CIGS LESS THAN 3000FT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
WEAK DISTURBANCE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BELOW A STRONG
CAP AT 750MB...BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN DFW 24-30HR TAF PERIOD.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A NORTHWARD
SURGE OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
LATE TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAK FRONT...BUT MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP RAINFALL
TOTALS ON THE MEAGER SIDE. NO SIGNIFICANT GRID UPDATES ARE PLANNED
FOR NOW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING WE WILL WARM UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING INTO TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN TODAY...RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING.

BY TOMORROW A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT
IT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO LIFT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CAP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LEFT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY STRONGER LIFT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF NEW CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS THROUGH 700MB ARE QUITE PUNY
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL LACK OF EITHER A STRONG SURFACE
FORCING MECHANISM OR STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON
DRYLINE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ACTUAL POPS ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS THOUGH...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. WILL HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM INTO NEXT WEEK...SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
WACO, TX              70  49  69  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  45  66  51  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            69  49  65  53  74 /   0   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  48  66  53  73 /   0   5  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           68  47  68  54  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  70  56  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  50  70  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  51  67  55  75 /   0   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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