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000
FXUS64 KFWD 080534
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS ARE PREVAILING AT DFW/GKY/DAL TAF SITES BUT CONDITIONS
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT FTW AND AFW WHERE THE LOW LEVELS ARE A
LITTLE DRIER AND MVFR CIGS ARE PREVAILING. THINK CIGS WILL COME
DOWN A CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH DFW/GKY/DAL/ACT POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO LIFR AND FTW/AFW TO IFR. WACO AND THE EASTERN
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL ALSO HAVE LOWER VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A -FZDZ AT ACT/DAL/GKY AS VSBY MAY DROP
TO 2SM AND DEPOSIT A LITTLE ICE THERE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AROUND 15Z AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ENDS AND CIGS
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT/SCATTER. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER BY 20-21Z
TOMORROW FROM SW TO NE. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TOMORROW. SOME RISK OF FOG SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED IN AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS RISK APPEARS
GREATEST AT WACO WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME AHEAD OF FROPA.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WHILE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL IN AREAS WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ALREADY COVERS THE ROADS...AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WHERE ROADS ARE GENERALLY DRY MAY ACCUMULATE A THIN GLAZE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/
BIGGEST ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE: HOW QUICKLY/HOW MUCH
WILL TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND
WHAT DO THE LONGER TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN FOR THE ULTIMATE
MELTING OF OUR ICE?

ALL OF NORTH TEXAS REMAINED IN THE DEEP FREEZE TODAY...WITH MID
AFTERNOON READINGS ONLY MANAGING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WEST OF A
SHERMAN TO TEMPLE LINE. THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA WERE ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER...REACHING THE UPPER 20S-AROUND 30 AS OF 3 PM.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS ICING ON MANY ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. THE COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER REMAIN HIT THE
HARDEST...BOTH IN TERMS OF SEVERE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND POWER
OUTAGES.

PATCHY VERY LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...IN RESPONSE TO
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON
RADAR/SATELLITE AND SHORT-TERM MODELS...BELIEVE THIS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...THEN FIZZLE OUT.
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WITH PLENTY OF ICE ON THE GROUND AND SLACK WINDS...THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION OVER MOST OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DIDN`T MENTION ANY DENSE FOG...BUT THAT COULD BECOME A CONCERN BY
DAYBREAK IN A FEW LOW LYING AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY...ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WOULD BE OF THE FREEZING VARIETY...AND THIS COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PAVEMENT AREAS OR OTHER SURFACES
THAT HAD MANAGED TO CLEAR TO THIS POINT. TRAVELERS LATE TONIGHT
WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS IN MIND IF THEY DO ENCOUNTER FOG.

OUR FIRST CHANCE AT SOME SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY...AND IN GENERAL LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GFS OUTPUT.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
AFTERNOON...THINK ANY MELTING/SUBLIMATION OF EXTENSIVE ICE FIELD
WILL RETARD TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING MUCH BEYOND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY STILL BE HAZARDOUS OR AT
LEAST CHALLENGING IN MANY AREAS...WITH MORNING LOWS ONCE AGAIN
DIVING BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL MELTING
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETARD A STRONG TEMPERATURE REBOUND. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY...PROVIDING RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND FURTHER RETARDING OUR AFTERNOON READINGS. MOISTURE
AND ASCENT WILL NOT BE OVERLY SUBSTANTIAL WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS
FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE GREAT
BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT WITH
PRE-DAWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NEED TO MENTION SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THESE
AREAS.

WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN BY
COMPARISON...AND WARMER DAY BY DAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
WILL BE LATE THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSITING THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW
ROTATES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  20  35  27  39  26 /  10  10   5  10  10
WACO, TX              18  39  29  41  26 /  10  10   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             23  34  27  42  26 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            19  32  25  36  22 /  10  10   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          20  33  25  39  23 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            20  35  29  39  25 /  10  10   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           22  35  28  42  27 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         24  39  31  44  29 /  10  10  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            22  43  29  42  27 /  10  10   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     16  37  23  34  20 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

 /