Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150819
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Today & Tonight/

We continue to track our expected strong surface cold front early
this morning. Currently, the cold front was located from just west
of Gainesville, to north of Alvord, to Jacksboro, to Graham and
and Possum Kingdom Reservoir. Though 2-3 hour pressure rises have
come down somewhat, they still are maxing out to between 6-6.5
mb/3 hrs from Childress, to Hobart Oklahoma, to Oklahoma City.
Observations from Wichita Falls up into Southern Oklahoma have
noted wind gusts well in excess of 40 mph at times due to not only
the shear density of the cooler airmass behind the front, but also
a very tight pressure gradient with surface pressures already near
1025mb across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. In addition to the
strong cold front and expected winds, showers and isolated
thunderstorms were developing just behind the cold front, due to
isentropic ascent associated with the southern tail end of strong
shortwave energy aloft lagging behind the cold front by 50 to 100
miles. Ahead of the cold front, south winds 5 to 15 mph were
occurring with temperatures in the 70s and continued humid
conditions.

The cold front will continue to move southeast at a good clip,
about 35 to 40 mph and pass through the I-20/30 corridors,
including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex during the pre-dawn
hours. The farthest southward surge will occur west of I-35/35W
through daybreak due to higher pressure rises across that region
and relatively higher terrain. We expect winds least through mid-
late morning to sustain between 25-30 mph with gusts to or in
excess of 35 mph at times, before slackening up somewhat by
afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been hoisted through 11 am CDT for
areas generally along and northwest of a line from Goldthwaite, to
Hillsboro/Corsicana, then northward up through Terrell,
Greenville, and Bonham. These areas will see the best pressure
rises and stronger winds through the morning hours. Otherwise, the
cold front will continue to readily outrun the tailing mid level
shortwave energy aloft. Elevated scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms should continue past daybreak, as moisture and lapse
rates aloft above the deepening low level frontal inversion will
be enough to keep some hit and miss activity going this morning.
No strong or severe weather is expected.

With the shortwave dropping past the Ozarks and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon, we should begin to see some
subsidence arriving from the northwest with better lift shifting
east of the area. In addition, the cold front will be pushing
through Southeast Texas and the Texas Upper Coast, with
increasingly drier low level airmass entraining in with the
deepening cold frontal inversion. Some sporadic cloudiness will
linger, before better clearing occurs late this afternoon and into
tonight. It will remain brisk this evening, before the winds
really diminish with clear skies assisting in radiational cooling
and decoupling and the surface high building in from the Central
Plains. Have gone below guidance on highs with the strong cold
advection, persistent cloud cover through at least early
afternoon, and spotty elevated convection around through the
morning hours. Many areas will be hard pressed to get out of the
60s, with some early highs in the 70s across the southeast
counties, with slowly falling temperatures through the day. Some
of the coldest air of the season will show up by sunrise Monday
morning. Lows well down into the lower-mid 40s will occur just
north-west of the DFW Metro, with upper 40s and lower 50s
elsewhere. A light coat or jacket is definitely advised today and
tonight if planning on heading outdoors for any prolonged period
of time.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Monday Onward/

Pleasant fall weather will be the story to begin the week with a
couple days of near- or below-normal temperatures and low
humidity. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the Central
Plains in wake Sunday`s cold front which will keep dry weather
and clear skies in place for most of the region. These conditions
will also mean a quality radiational cooling setup overnight,
especially on Tuesday morning when winds will be very light. Some
outlying areas may actually dip into the upper 30s before
daybreak Tuesday, especially across our northwestern zones. It
should be the coolest morning since April or May for most of the
forecast area.

By Wednesday, south winds will return as surface high pressure
shifts east and flow becomes fairly zonal aloft. A warming trend
will ensue, and temperatures will climb right back to near or
above normal by Wednesday afternoon. Moisture will be slow to
return however, but by Friday, 50s and low 60s dewpoints should
finally overspread much of North and Central Texas. To our west,
a few upper disturbances will be rippling through the broad
trough that should be taking shape across the western US. This may
allow for a few showers or storms within the deeper moisture
across Central Texas on Friday afternoon, thus have maintained
some low PoPs.

Models continue to be wildly inconsistent regarding the evolution
of the aforementioned upper trough to our west for next weekend.
The latest run of the ECMWF is swinging a progressive shortwave
through the region along with another cold front next Sunday,
which is a complete change from the previous run that developed a
deep retrograding cutoff low to our west. The GFS has favored a
weaker and more progressive solution, but without pulling the
front through our area. GEFS members are roughly an even split
between the operational GFS, and both solutions depicted by the
latest ECMWF runs, so confidence is quite low even regarding the
large-scale pattern for next weekend. Regardless of the exact
setup, there will be sufficient moisture in place, and one
disturbance or another should be capable of producing showers or
storms across part of the forecast area. Have maintained low PoPs
with low confidence through next weekend.

-Stalley

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/
/6Z TAFS/

Main concern in the immediate short term will be the strong cold
front that will move through overnight. Only changes to the
current TAF forecast was to make minor adjustments to FROPA at
area airports based on radar/satellite observations. Timing still
looks like it will be between 830-1030Z in the Metroplex and
around 1030-11Z at Waco. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front along with an abrupt wind shift to
the northwest. MVFR cigs will also likely prevail for a few hours
through the morning before drier air filters in and cigs scatter.
VFR conditions will prevail Sunday afternoon through the remainder
of the period with gusty north winds diminishing after sunset.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  49  72  48  77 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  48  75  44  79 /  40   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  46  71  45  73 /  30   0   0   0   0
Denton              67  44  72  42  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  45  72  43  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
Dallas              69  50  73  49  77 /  30   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  46  75  45  76 /  40   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  48  72  47  77 /  40   0   0   0   0
Temple              71  49  75  46  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       67  43  71  42  77 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>094-
100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146.

&&

$$

26/05



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