Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010612 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1212 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR. Westerly winds should continue to
turn towards the south ensuring south flow by Thursday morning.

VFR will prevail across North and Central TX terminals over the
next 24 to 30 hours. Winds this evening have been a little slower
to back to the west and southwest than previously thought. Speeds
are generally light enough, however, such that terminals can
handle a south flow configuration. With a mostly optimal
radiational cooling night in store, some frost may develop on
aircraft that remain idle at area terminals overnight. This may
require some minor deicing operations on Thursday morning.

Otherwise, significant restrictions to visibility and/or ceilings
are not anticipated over the next 30 hours. Most guidance suggests
that some modest low and mid-level ascent will occur to the west
of the I-35 corridor. With the ascent only being modest and a
great chunk of the troposphere appearing seemingly dry, it would
appear that any sort of mid-level cloud deck is unlikely. That in
mind, some guidance (most noticeably NAM) suggest that some clouds
around FL090 will develop in response to this lift. For now, will
keep mention of this out of of all TAFs, but will monitor cloud
trends. Beyond the 30 hour DFW extended TAF, it`s likely that
restricted ceilings below FL040 will be possible.

24-Bain

&&

.UPDATED CLIMATE...
With another day of above normal temperatures on this last day of
November, we`ll close the books on the month with yet another
record warmest month at the DFW airport. The average monthly high
temperature (which is the mean of the daily high and low) at DFW will
be 63.6 degrees, which eclipses the previous record of 63.2
degrees set in 1909. This makes November of 2016 the warmest on
record for DFW.

Waco has experienced cooler conditions and will not set a new
record this month, ending as the 11th warmest November on record.

Carlaw/Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/
We`re closing out November in fine fall fashion this afternoon,
with temperatures around the region running in the upper 50s to
near 60 degrees under crystal clear skies. For more information
about how this month stacks up in the climatological record,
please see the Climate section above. Surface high pressure is
situated just to our west, and will continue to build in across
the region overnight. With clear skies, light to calm winds, and
dewpoints in the middle 20s, we`ll radiate very well tonight,
sending our low temperatures into the 30s pretty much area-wide.
Some of our colder outlying areas will likely fall to freezing or
just below tonight. In addition, with dewpoints gradually rising
into the upper 20s, combined with the light winds, some patchy
frost development will be possible in sheltered locations. Given
the anomalous warmth as of late, we`ve gone ahead and added in
patchy frost to the worded forecast in our outlying zones tonight.

Thursday will feature a few mid-level clouds in response to an
approaching upper-level disturbance zipping through the fast zonal
flow. Substantial changes are then in store late Thursday night
and into Friday. During this time frame, a trough axis will begin
to dig sharply through the Great Basin. This will begin to shunt
surface high pressure to our east, allowing low-level southerly
winds to begin the process of transporting deeper moisture into
North Central Texas.

As low-level warm advection increases on Friday afternoon,
isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible, primarily
across our western and southern counties. Isentropic upglide near
305 K will begin to encounter increasingly steep lapse rates
around 850 to 700 mb across these locales. Warm advection will
continue to blossom Friday night and into Saturday, which will
lead to the development of a widespread chilly rain and overall
unpleasant day. At this time, it appears that a paucity of
instability will squash the potential for widespread lightning,
but a few strikes will be possible as the column rapidly
saturates. High temperatures on Saturday will likely not make it
out of the 40s for most.

Rain will continue Saturday night, with coverage gradually
decreasing from northwest to southeast through the day on Sunday.
This will transpire as the strongest and most focused warm
advection is shunted to the south and east as an upper-low barrels
towards the Trans-Pecos region. That said, decent precipitation
chances will continue across our southeastern counties through the
day.

The forecast for Monday and beyond remains anything but certain as
the aformentioned closed upper-low breaks away from the main
trough axis and begins to potentially eject towards Texas and
Oklahoma. The latest ECMWF and several runs of the respectably
consistent CMC support surface cyclogenesis near the Upper Texas
Coast as the exit region of a potent 100+ kt jet streak moves out
over the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring a resurgence of
precipitation to North Central Texas. As lift, courtesy of mid-
level height falls overspreads the region, dynamic cooling aloft
should allow for the development of more embedded thunderstorm
activity on Monday. Given the degree of forecast uncertainty at
this point, we`ve capped PoPs at 40% for now.

Things should clear out briefly on Tuesday before a potentially
potent arctic front blasts through the central CONUS bringing a
renewed shot of showers and storms to parts of the forecast area
on Wednesday. What will follow for the end of next week may be some
of the coldest (and driest) air of the young meteorological winter
season.

Carlaw



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  65  47  65  48 /   0   0   5  20  70
Waco                32  63  44  63  48 /   0   0   5  30  70
Paris               33  62  39  63  44 /   0   0   5  10  60
Denton              34  64  43  60  45 /   0   0   5  20  70
McKinney            34  62  42  63  46 /   0   0   5  10  60
Dallas              41  65  47  65  48 /   0   0   5  20  70
Terrell             35  63  43  62  47 /   0   0   5  10  70
Corsicana           38  65  45  64  48 /   0   0   5  20  70
Temple              34  65  45  62  48 /   0   0   5  30  70
Mineral Wells       30  65  43  59  45 /   0   0   5  20  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/91



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