Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM/LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND/...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LINGERING FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE WEAK CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE FRONTAL POSITION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND IN THE 60S THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FRONT SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT BEFORE
WASHING OUT CLOSE TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
READILY WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 50S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL
ASSIST ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OZARKS SHORTWAVE. WE HAVE RAISED
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-35 WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.15 INCHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE GENERAL VARIETY AS
INSTABILITY WILL MARGINAL.

IT APPEARS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH
BREEZE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM/NEXT WEEK/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY WILL DETACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...IT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. A CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FETCH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
PROVIDE GOOD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM GETS PULLED NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE DETAILS WITH THIS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL GO BELOW THE HIGH MODEL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10KTS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF SCT/BKN CIGS
AROUND 5000FT FROM WACO NORTHEAST TO TYLER. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE SCT/BKN CIGS MENTIONED EARLIER...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  54  79  53  69 /   0   0  10  10   0
WACO, TX              79  54  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  20   0
PARIS, TX             73  47  74  49  65 /   5   5  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            75  48  79  49  66 /   0   0  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  47  77  50  67 /   5   0  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  56  79  55  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           76  52  77  52  70 /   5   5  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  53  78  53  70 /  10   5   5  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  56  80  53  73 /  20  10   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  50  80  48  68 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05





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