Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231115
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.AVIATION...
A Pacific moisture plume continues to generate elevated showers
over West Central Texas, but these RADAR echoes should remain
west of North Texas TAF sites. The primary concern will be MVFR
cigs, which quickly overspread the area this morning within the 35
KT low level jet winds currently in place. These clouds have
enveloped all but KAFW during the past few hours and will likely
hang around through mid morning. Meanwhile, the strong low level
southerly winds remain mostly decoupled from the surface, but
should translate to 15-20 KT surface winds after a few hours of
mixing. A narrow pressure gradient is responsible for this uptick
in wind speeds, and these winds should decrease by 5 KT or so by
this time tomorrow as the gradient loosens up a little. A return
of stratus is less likely in the Metroplex tomorrow morning, but
still a good possibility in the Waco area for the 09-12Z time
frame Wednesday.


30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/
North and Central Texas should continue to see a relatively dry
pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over
the southeast CONUS continues to expanding westward over the area.
Meanwhile, a broad longwave upper trough was over the western U.S.
Areas northwest of the DFW Metroplex will continue to see low
chances for showers and thunderstorms today, as southwest flow
aloft with embedded shortwave energy continues over that area.
Instability will be relatively low, though precipitable water
values will remain around 2 inches with the potential for brief
heavy downpours possible by this afternoon. We are not expecting
any flooding issues, as all activity should be progressive with no
one area seeing extensive periods of heavy rainfall.

The upper high will continue expanding west over North and
Central Texas tonight through Thursday allowing for a few days of
drier and warmer weather. Highs will warm back into the lower to
middle 90s with the usual late Summer humidity continuing as well.

The western U.S. upper trough will amplify over the High Plains
and off the lee of the Rockies and weaken the upper high over our
area Friday into the weekend. This will allow another weak cold
front move southeast into the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi valley. The combination of the surface front and
increasingly moist deep southern fetch of moisture will bring
convective rain chances back to much of the area Thursday night
into Saturday. With the tropical and moist adiabatic nature of the
airmass in place and weak winds aloft, severe weather is not
expected. However, some locally heavy rainfall will return to
especially the eastern half of the area with precipitable water
values of 1.5-2 inches moving back west from Louisiana.

Relatively drier air will filter in behind the front from the
north-northeast on Sunday with just low lingering rain chances
across the southeast counties. The first half of next week should
see highs around or slightly below seasonal normals in the upper
80s/lower 90s. Will maintain a dry forecast for the early half of
next week, as the subtropical high expands from the Mid-Atlantic
states to the Southern Plains. A few easterly wave disturbances
will track across South Texas and it is possible they could track
close enough to our far southern counties for some low rain
chances next week. For now, we will leave these out with best
forcing remaining along and south of the I-10 corridor.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  76  93  76  94 /   5   5   5   5  10
Waco                91  75  91  74  92 /   5   0   5   5  10
Paris               91  73  92  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20
Denton              91  73  92  72  94 /  10   5   5   5  10
McKinney            91  74  92  74  93 /  10   5   5   5  20
Dallas              92  77  93  76  94 /   5   5   5   5  10
Terrell             91  74  92  74  92 /   5   5   5   5  20
Corsicana           91  76  91  75  91 /   5   5   5   5  20
Temple              91  74  90  73  91 /   5   0   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       91  71  92  71  93 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

30/05



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