Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200234 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
934 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
LOWER THE POPS AND ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX...WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE EAST
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT..ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
VFR /SCT-BKN ABV120/ WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND 12-15G23KTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES AS FORCING FOR LIFT DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AND REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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