Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211742 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AND WACO OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE AT 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION OR CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT AND PRECIPITATION GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF KANSAS. A VERY DRY PROFILE WAS OBSERVED FROM THE 12Z
FWD RAOB AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CURRENT IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES
SOMETIME AROUND 7 PM. LATEST HRRR AND TTU-WRF MODEL OUTPUT DOES
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE RED RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE DRY PROFILE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...TRIMMED POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE REST OF THE PACKAGE LOOKED TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

BAIN/TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOWER 90S. SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR ONE MORE VERY WARM AND HUMID
DAY. HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST
AS WELL BY THIS EVENING WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING
A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD SEE
THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH SUNSET BEING THEY WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RICHER MOISTURE. INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR A STRONG STORM EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE... WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL USHER IN DRIER
AIR WITH ANY CAA EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. LOW POPS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL BE COOLER WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHERE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOOK
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN
UP AND LIFT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO A BLOCKING
OMEGA UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL TAIL SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND ALLOW LOW DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT AREA BUT
WILL REMAIN TO FAR WEST FOR RAIN CHANCES AROUND OUR AREA.  THE
BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW DISAGREEMENT
ON SYSTEM TIMING AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  69  87  64  84 /   5  20   5   0   5
WACO, TX              92  70  90  65  86 /   5  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             88  61  81  58  80 /  20  20   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            92  66  86  61  83 /  10  20   5   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          92  66  86  59  83 /  10  20   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            92  70  87  65  85 /   5  20   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           94  68  87  60  84 /   5  20   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  71  89  62  86 /   5  20  10   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            92  70  91  66  85 /   5  10  20   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  68  86  63  84 /   5  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/92




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