Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 290240
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
940 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
The line of storms currently in West Texas continues to organize
as it moves east. It should reach the western portions of the CWA
around 11 PM and the I-35 corridor around 3 to 4 AM unless some
cold pooling accelerates portions of the line. Damaging wind and
hail will be the primary threats with the squall line. Some brief
heavy rainfall is also likely. The storms should weaken as they
move east away from the large scale dynamics.

A new severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 4 AM which
includes locations from the I-35 corridor westward. This watch
replaces the earlier Tornado watch.

Other than updating the watch location. No major changes are
needed to the forecast at this time.

79

&&

.AVIATION...

A warm front had lifted north of the Metroplex TAF sites late
this afternoon. A broken layer of clouds between 4000 ft and
8000 ft will remain in place through the evening. MVFR ceilings
are likely to develop late this evening ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. MVFR ceilings will linger overnight through
sunrise at all TAF sites.

Thunderstorms currently west of the region will slowly organize
into a squall line that will move east through the night. Although
an isolated storm or two could develop ahead of this line, coverage
will be too limited to mention in this TAF package. We expect
this line of storms to reach the I-35 corridor (and all TAF sites)
between 8Z and 9Z with impacts from these storms possible through
sunrise. Once the line of storms moves east of the Interstate 35
corridor Wednesday morning, clouds will quickly clear as
subsidence increases behind the squall line. Although there should
be no direct impacts from storms Wednesday afternoon, eastbound
departures will likely be affected.

A southeast wind between 12 and 16 mph this evening will turn more
southerly by sunrise Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Wind speeds
on Thursday will range from 10 to 15 knots along with some higher
gusts. The cold front will not reach the Metroplex TAF sites
until around 02Z Thursday.


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

...Tornado Watch in effect for areas west and northwest of the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex...

Convection continues to increase over the Texas Panhandle and
South Plains in advance of a deep upper level low, which was
centered over New Mexico this afternoon. Storms will gradually
spread eastward later this afternoon and this evening in the
eastward developing region of good forcing associated with the
upper low. Activity will likely initiate along an eastward moving
dryline, with individual storms moving generally north-northeast.
These storms will are expected to develop upscale into a linear
MCS, which will push east across North and Central Texas
overnight.

Meanwhile, a warm front has taken its time moving north, but
appears to have made it north of the I-20 corridor. The boundary
will continue to approach the Red River, and may become the focus
for a few isolated strong to severe storms. Discrete cells will
have the potential for producing large hail, damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado. The best potential for thunderstorms this
afternoon will likely be over our northwestern counties where the
strongest forcing will reside and the surface boundary will be
near.

As the line progresses east overnight, damaging straight-line
winds will be the primary threat. That said, decreasing
instability as surface heating wanes could be a factor that helps
mitigate the severe potential. The latest hi-res guidance
indicates a weakening trend as the line moves east of the I-35
corridor Wednesday morning. The dryline and/or lingering outflow
is likely to stall near the far-eastern counties as the upper low
continues trekking east across the Southern Plains. Another round
of good forcing associated with the upper low will help ignite
additional storms in the vicinity of the stalled boundary during
the peak heating hours Wednesday. Some of these storms may become
severe with large hail and damaging winds. The exact location of
the surface boundary will determine where storms initiate, and at
this time the highest POPs will be over the eastern-most counties
with lower POPs the farther west you go.

The upper low center will move east across Oklahoma Wednesday
night, which may generate isolated storms along the Red River. Due
to the expected low coverage, POPs will remain fairly low. There
could be an isolated hail threat due to the cold air aloft but the
overall severe threat Wednesday night appears low.

Thursday should be a nice day as the upper low moves east and a
cold front pushes through the region. This will be short-lived,
however, as the next upper level storm system drops quickly
southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the Four-Corners region,
bringing a quick return to south winds, moisture and warmer
weather Friday. This system looks like it will similarly generate
multiple rounds of convection from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday night. There is still some model uncertainty with regard to
the timing and exact path the system will take, but the latest
guidance hints that there will again be at least some threat of
severe weather this weekend. We may have to also consider the
threat for localized flooding to to the multiple precipitation
events expected this week.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  83  54  69  52 / 100  40  10   5   5
Waco                65  82  54  73  50 / 100  50   5   5   5
Paris               64  76  54  66  47 /  80  70  30  10  10
Denton              63  80  51  67  47 / 100  40  10   5   5
McKinney            65  78  53  67  48 / 100  50  10  10   5
Dallas              66  82  55  69  52 / 100  50  10  10   5
Terrell             66  79  55  69  48 / 100  60  20  10   5
Corsicana           66  80  56  71  51 /  90  60  20  10   5
Temple              64  82  54  75  51 /  90  50   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       57  81  49  69  47 / 100  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/79



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