Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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784
FXUS64 KFWD 300900
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
North and Central Texas continue to remain under the confluence
of both the polar and subtropical branches of the westerlies, but
more under the influence of the latter. A shortwave within the
subtropical branch was triggering a few showers and storms across
the Trans Pecos and Hill Country areas, while a northern branch
shortwave was moving across the Kansas/Oklahoma border and
expected to move more east than south toward the Ozarks later this
morning. At the surface, a broad and weak pressure pattern was
draped across the region with the old stationary front very hard
to discern, as many areas show light and variable winds, while
others are under 6 mph.

The light winds this morning will likely become light east-
southeast 5-10 mph later today, as broad and weak surface high
pressure shifts northeast of the area. Latest FWD sounding and
forecast sounding still show a dry environment below cirrus level
with just a thin sliver of moisture around 800mb. Richer column
moisture between 700mb-850mb will remain located across Central
and South TX today. Isolated, mostly diurnal, showers and storms
will be possible generally southeast of a line from Goldthwaite,
to Hillsboro, to Canton, but this will be contingent on the north-
south fluctuation of the low-mid level theta-E ridge located well
south of I-20 this morning. Brief heavy downpours, lightning and
some strong winds will be possible with any brief, strong
thunderstorms by this afternoon, but widespread strong-severe
storms are not expected as flow and shear through the lowest 15-20
kft remains weak and less than 15 kts. Can`t rule out a downburst
with modest instability, but otherwise most locations will remain
dry with just mainly warm and humid conditions today.

A relatively quiet period in between systems will occur tonight
through Wednesday morning, as a shortwave ridge builds over the
region with modest southeast winds around 10 mph returning. A very
gradual transport of Gulf moisture is expected to start moving
back northward. Enough moisture and weak ascent will linger across
the southwest counties during this period for a few showers and
storms to remain possible, though the forecast will be nowhere
near a washout for this area. Meanwhile, an upper trough located
over southern California and northwestern Mexico today will begin
a slow trek eastward within the weak flow aloft and move toward
the Trans Pecos, Hill Country, and Permian Basin areas late
tonight into Wednesday morning. With an increasingly warm and
modestly unstable airmass across the state, scattered showers and
storms will move east-northeast and begin affecting our far
western and Central Texas counties late Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Best chances for a strong storm or two with strong winds,
frequent lightning, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall will
occur during the daylight hours. Otherwise, winds in the low-mid
levels continue to remain relatively weak, thus any severe weather
threat looks very low.

The broad and weak upper level trough will begin to meet
resistance from southeast U.S. and Gulf of Mexico upper trough
and begin slowly tracking northeast across the southern High
Plains Thursday, before weakening and moving east across Oklahoma
Thursday night and Friday. This will be our favored window for
more numerous showers and storms, especially across areas along
and north of I-20. The northern part of the CWA will be situated
closer to the stronger large-scale ascent across Oklahoma and
southern Kansas. Modest wind shear, instability, and 6-7 deg C/km
lapse rates aloft will be across the northern portions of the CWA
during this time frame. A few strong to marginally severe storms
with hail, very gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall are certainly possible. Further south, winds through the
layer will be weaker and do not expect more than mostly the garden
variety type of thunderstorms containing locally heavy rainfall.

The weekend will remain unsettled, as a strong shortwave moving
southeast from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley helps
maintain broad upper troughing further southwest across the Ozarks
and over eastern Texas/Oklahoma. Plenty of moisture and
instability typical for early June will be available across North
and Central Texas. Scattered showers and storms will remain a
threat across the region. Flow aloft appears fairly weak for any
organized severe weather threat, though certainly a few stronger
storms containing strong winds, frequent lightning, small hail,
and heavy downpours will remain possible. A localized threat for
flooding will present itself as well, as steering flow will be
relatively weak this weekend. Look for temperatures to be
seasonably warm and humid, but not excessively hot for early June.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/
A weak surface ridge centered near the ArkLaTex region will keep
generally light easterly to light and variable winds in place for
most of this forecast period. Meanwhile, the remnants of a cold
front remain draped south of the Dallas-Ft Worth area. Higher
moisture levels south of the boundary and light winds could lead
to some patchy fog overnight, and the TEMPO for 5SM BR will be
kept in the KACT TAF. The large swath of high clouds now
overspreading the state may keep dense fog at bay. We will need to
keep an eye out, however, as any clearing could lead to lower
visibilities by morning. Otherwise, precipitation chances should
remain slim to nil until late Wednesday or Thursday when we
receive some decent lift from a shortwave trough.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  70  87  71  80 /   5   5  20  30  60
Waco                86  69  85  70  82 /  20  20  30  50  60
Paris               86  68  85  69  78 /   5   5  20  20  60
Denton              88  68  86  69  80 /   5   5  20  30  70
McKinney            87  69  86  70  79 /   5   5  20  30  60
Dallas              89  71  87  71  81 /   5   5  20  30  60
Terrell             85  68  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  30  60
Corsicana           85  68  85  69  81 /  20  20  20  40  60
Temple              85  68  84  69  82 /  20  20  30  50  60
Mineral Wells       87  66  86  67  81 /   5   5  30  40  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

/05



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