Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282303
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL
RESULT IN SOME VERY HIGH BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOSTLY VIRGA IS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW RAINDROPS MAY REACH THE GROUND DURING THE
SATURDAY MORNING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FROM 10-18Z BUT ASIDE
FROM POSSIBLE TURBULENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TO
THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER HIGH TODAY AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ROOTED IN THE MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO
DESPITE COVERAGE...ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NO
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL
GAMES THIS EVENING NORTH OF I-20.

AS A COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
DRIFTS WEST...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA
WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW WEAK NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST NEAR OR
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THOUGH ANY
SURFACE FOCUS APPEARS BENIGN...SUBTLE LIFT FROM MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG AUGUST
HEATING FOR AT LEAST A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON SATURDAY...THEN FURTHER SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING
RELATIVELY MODEST AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT NOT STEEP AT ALL.
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER OVER THE ARKLATEX. EITHER
WAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OFF OUR EASTERN CWA
EDGE. WE WILL ADVERTISE DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE BETTER MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER SEABREEZE
COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON. IT/S SAFE TO SAY THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KEY TO WHERE LOW RAIN CHANCES OCCUR EACH
DAY. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

05

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  77  95  77 /  10  20  20   5  10
WACO, TX              74  95  74  95  72 /  10  10  20  20   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  71  93  71 /  30  30  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  95  74 /  20  20  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            77  94  78  95  77 /  10  20  20   5  10
TERRELL, TX           73  93  73  94  72 /  10  20  20   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  72  94  72 /   5  10  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  72  96  72 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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