Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 292348
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TEND
TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE DFW AND WACO AREAS...REMAINING SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO WACO. KEPT VCTS IN THE WACO TAF THROUGH 01Z BECAUSE
ANVIL CLOUDS FROM THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOSQUE AND HAMILTON COUNTY BORDER CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
AIRPORT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TO
DISCHARGE NEAR THE AIRPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE VCTS
MENTION PRIMARILY AS A LIGHTNING ONLY THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE DFW AREA...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE DFW AREA TAFS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
SUNSET AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT ORGANIZED AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
TIED TO A FRONT OR STRONG LIFT ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
MUGGY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD APPROACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING.  COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY
SUNSET. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH OVERALL WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTH TEXAS REMAINING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM EITHER FOR LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE...THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE WEEK...THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-102 RANGE
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE...INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS FAR
SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRI/SAT BUT MAY NEED TO
BUMP THESE UP IF IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL COME FARTHER
SOUTH. EITHER WAY...THINK ITS PROBABLY A GOOD BET THAT SOME
LINGERING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  95  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  93  74 /  20  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  73  92  75 /  10  20   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            74  95  74  94  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  94  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  95  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  93  74 /  20  20   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  91  72  92  72 /  20  20   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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