Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011648 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE ISSUING AN UPDATE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
SURGING INTO THAT AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH YIELDING
SBCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG. EVEN SO...WE BELIEVEDEVELOPMENT
WILL BE VERY LIMITED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS POOR DUE TO VEERED WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THAT AREA. ONLY A THIN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS READILY THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE COLDER AIR OR TRUE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LAG 100 MILES OR
MORE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WAS PUSHING THROUGH AREAS NORTH
OF I-20 ATTM. THE CAA WAS DRIVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
15 TO 25 MPH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METRO CURRENTLY. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE
DAY WITH STEADY OR SLOW-FALLING TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED THROUGH MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING.
SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND SOME TEMPORARY
LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT.

CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 FT WITH OCCASIONAL SCATTERED VFR
CEILINGS. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...MOVING EAST. HOWEVER...AS SOON AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE
VISIBILITY IS FALLING BELOW 1 MILE AND IN SOME CASES BELOW 1/2
MILE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLIFY THE CEILING TRENDS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING AND CARRY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...MVFR BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z AND VFR AFTER 20Z. THE DRIVING
FACTOR FOR THE CEILING TRENDS IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO AROUND
17Z. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL STAY UP AROUND 12
KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            54  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  28  43  31  56 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  20   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            65  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05




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