Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 112031
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

After a very warm, sunny, and near record temperature-breaking
afternoon, a cold front lurks on the horizon across the Texas
Panhandle and Western Oklahoma. The cold front will initially
arrive into the Red River Valley around nightfall, then into the
I-20/I-30 corridors early this evening while being supported by a
strong shortwave disturbance diving southeast across the
Mississippi Valley.

The cold front should clear our Central Texas counties well before
sunrise. Initially, the surface cold front will bring a subtle
shift of current westerly winds to northwest at 10-15 mph, before
strong low level cold advection and a shift to the north at 15-20
mph arrive 3-4 hours post passage. The brisk north winds and
chilly temperatures will be noticeable for folks waking up Tuesday
morning with wind chills in the 30s expected. It would be a good
idea to take a coat or jacket with you before heading out Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected with such a dry
environment in place across the region.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through the weekend/

Tuesday morning temperatures will begin similar to the past few
mornings, but will top out about 20 degrees below this afternoon`s
values due to post-frontal cold air advection. Similar dewpoints
behind the front will yield higher afternoon relative humidity
values when compared to this afternoon, which should help mitigate
fire danger tomorrow despite the gusty north winds.

A pair of shortwave troughs will drop southeast through the Plains
Wednesday and Thursday, sending another cold front through the
area during this time. Warm and dry weather is expected on
Wednesday as surface winds back to the southwest ahead of the
front, creating another day of elevated fire danger. We stuck
fairly close to National Blend for Wednesday high temperatures due
to the relatively short warm-up period compared to the past few
days. Cold air advection will be weak on Thursday behind the
initial front, but will increase Thursday night into Friday as a
secondary push of cool air arrives. The overall outcome will be a
couple of cool and breezy days Wednesday and Thursday, though
temperatures will still be near to slightly above normal for this
time of year.

Yet another (though this time stronger and deeper) shortwave will
traverse the Southern Plains over the weekend, which will send
a third cold front barreling through North and Central Texas.
Its not surprising that there are model discrepancies with regard
to the timing and strength of the weekend system as we move
farther into the future, with the ECMWF being faster, weaker and
drier when compared to the GFS. Will lean towards the drier ECMWF
which is also the forecast closer to persistence, which makes
more sense given the upper air pattern. This means forecasting
above NBM guidance for Saturday high temperatures and below for
dewpoints ahead of the next front. This will also create another
high fire danger day on Saturday, unless for some reason the
wetter GFS turns out out be the more accurate model. These
discrepancies will likely iron out as we move into mid week and
guidance improves.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1138 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected the next 24-30 hours with occasional
scattered-broken cirrus AOA FL300. W-WSW winds 10 knots shouldn`t
pose too much of a crosswind issue on N-S runways today with the
very dry conditions continuing.

The expected cold FROPA still is forecast into the DFW Metro area
early this evening, then through Waco Regional Airport just before
midnight. Winds initially behind the cold FROPA will shift WNW or
NW 10-15 knots, before becoming N near 15 knots with a few gusts
to 20 knots possible with the expected strong low level thermal
advection arriving into the area.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  58  38  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                40  59  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               37  53  34  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              37  57  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  56  35  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              41  58  39  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             38  57  34  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           40  57  34  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              40  60  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       36  58  33  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/30


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