Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND THEN PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z FWD RAOB OBSERVED A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING IN
PLACE IS FAIRLY HIGH. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OVER AREA TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DO NOT SEE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AND SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. AS A
RESULT...DISCOUNTED THE NAM SOLUTION FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED TO THE WEST OF REGION WILL MOVE
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GET FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA-
WIDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 80S
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BEFORE SUNSET THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES AND APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE REST OF THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY END OF THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER
ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE BAJA SYSTEM FROM THIS POINT ONWARD WITH THE
ECMWF WEAKENING THE LOW AND MOVING IT MORE QUICKLY EAST WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS A SLOWER MOVING CLOSED LOW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD...WHICH HAS THE BAJA
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS HAVE
INDICATED THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  77  53  64  39 /   0   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              44  77  53  68  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  73  51  62  36 /   0   0   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            43  77  49  63  38 /   0   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          42  75  51  63  37 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            49  77  54  64  40 /   0   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  75  53  65  39 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         48  75  53  66  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            45  77  51  68  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  81  48  65  38 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




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