Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251505 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

WE/RE ISSUING A QUICK MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST AREAS
WEST OF I-35 BY NOON TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE HIGH AND ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED. 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS SBCAPE OF 3100 J/KG AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE. ALTHOUGH A CAP IS PRESENT...IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN
AROUND MIDDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME TORNADOES.
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF RAINFALL COMES DOWN VERY
HARD AND FAST...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS REGARDING TIMING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EACH MORNING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS NOW LIFTING OVER SW TEXAS
AS EVIDENT BY THE INCREASING STRONG-SEVERE TSRA FROM KMAF TO KDRT
AT SUNRISE. HIGH RES MODELS AGREE ON A LINEAR OR QLCS TYPE OF
COMPLEX DRIVEN BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SPEED OF THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING CONVECTION INTO
THE TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH BEST WINDOW FOR
IFR/TSRA CONDITIONS W/HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING THROUGH 21Z-22Z. THE
LONGER WINDOW IS IN CASE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON A SURGING
DRYING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR/-DZ THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS LIFT AND MIXING INCREASE AFTER 18Z...EXPECT PREVAILING LOW VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH TSRA. VFR WILL HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST
MID EVENING BEFORE MVFR ARRIVES BACK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. MORE IFR
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH
OCCASIONAL VARIABLE HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.   05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY...PROVIDING OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWING A SHORT REPRIEVE
OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF OUR CWA. HI-RES MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF DAY SHOULD ENSURE MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AS LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. SBCAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 2000-4000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY EVENT. HOWEVER...RESPECTABLE
PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL STILL BE PLENTY HIGH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF TODAY/S FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN WILL SET US UP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AREA-WIDE AS A DRYLINE
SURGES EAST NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST AND THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
ENSURE THAT JUST ABOUT ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BECOME
SEVERE. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP 30 POPS OVER THE WEST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK. GOOD MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN SLOW DOWN...BROADEN AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT
MONDAY. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  66  87  70  85 /  90  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              84  67  86  71  86 /  90  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             77  65  82  68  85 /  90  70  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            79  64  86  69  86 /  90  30  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  65  84  69  86 /  90  40  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            83  66  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           83  66  85  71  88 /  90  50  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         81  67  85  72  86 /  90  50  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  67  87  70  88 /  90  30  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  64  88  69  86 /  90  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

/75



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