Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220937
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
337 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
It was quite an interesting day on Saturday as high-based showers
and a few thunderstorms ended up producing several 40-50 mph wind
gusts and even some small hail across the region. At present, most
activity has departed our area, although we are left with a few
pockets of showers caught up within the warm conveyor across our
eastern-most counties. These will, however, be shifting eastward
this morning.

Regional surface analysis reveals a 993 mb occluded surface
cyclone currently near Frederick, Oklahoma, and this feature will
continue to rapidly track eastward along the Red River this
morning. Analysis of theta-e up around 600-700 mb reveals the
presence of a well-defined TROWAL (TROugh of Warm air ALoft)
arcing across the Texas Panhandle and into the Big Country. This
is essentially an indication that warm and moist air associated
with the warm conveyor has finished a journey completely around
the mid-level low--a sign of a very strong low pressure system.
The visual demarcation of this feature can be seen in the form of
some cooler cloud tops and splotchy areas of light precip punching
into our western counties at this time. Normally, TROWALs as
defined as this one are capable of focusing additional
precipitation, but in this situation, it appears much of the
atmospheric moisture has been leeched out by earlier
convection/dry air advection. Still, decided to throw in some
isolated shower wording into the forecast this morning roughly
north and east of a Bowie to Athens line, coincident with the zone
of greatest EPV-reduction and lingering moisture.

The other issue we`ll be dealing with today will be very strong
northwesterly winds. On top of an impressively strong surface
pressure gradient, stout 3-hr pressure rises on the order of 5-6
mb to our west will foster a strong isallobaric component to the
wind today. The net result will be wind speeds increasing
markedly through the mid-morning hours into the 20-30 mph range,
with gusts of 35-45 mph. The strongest winds look to occur
generally south of I-20, but it will be a windy day either way you
slice it. A Wind Advisory is in effect for locations south and
west of a Jacksboro to Waco to Cameron line now through 6 PM, and
then northeast of this line from 9 AM-6 PM.

Dry, and quieter weather is in store next week as ridging settles
in overhead. A strong cold front is set to move through the region
Tuesday night and into Wednesday, which will send our temperatures
back into the 50s to close out the workweek, but no precipitation
is anticipated. Ahead of the front, Tuesday may actually be a
pretty warm day, as winds veer towards the west-southwest. Nudged
high temperatures up a few degrees.

There may be some opportunity for some light precip Friday night
and into Saturday as several ripples in the mid-level flow move
overhead. Overall atmospheric moisture doesn`t look particularly
impressive, but there are indications that isentropic lift within
the mid- levels may be enough to produce some light precipitation.
Given uncertainties at this range of the forecast, however, opted
to show a dry forecast at this time. This could be a feature to
watch, however, with wet bulb temperatures likely falling into the
lower 30s during this time.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/
Other than a few lingering showers, quiet weather is expected
through sunrise with scattered to broken middle and upper level
clouds. A southwest to west wind will steadily increase through
the night as the pressure gradient tightens in response to surface
low pressure moving across southwest Oklahoma. The wind will turn
to the northwest shortly after sunrise Sunday with the passage of
a Pacific cold front. Wind speeds through the day Sunday will
range from 18 to 24 knots sustained with gusts around 35 knots.
Wind speeds will decrease after sunset Sunday but remain in the 13
to 17 knot range. These winds will result in some crosswind issues
on North/South runways.

The passage of the cold front will also bring some MVFR ceilings
to the Metroplex terminals Sunday morning but all low clouds will
scatter before midday.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  40  69  50  76 /  10   0   0   0   5
Waco                65  39  71  48  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
Paris               58  37  64  45  73 /  20   0   0   0   5
Denton              62  38  67  47  74 /  10   0   0   0   5
McKinney            60  38  66  47  73 /  10   0   0   0   5
Dallas              62  41  69  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   5
Terrell             61  40  67  48  75 /  10   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           63  42  69  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   5
Temple              67  40  72  49  77 /   5   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       63  36  72  47  72 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ100-101-115>117-
129>133-141>145-156>160-174.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ091>095-102>107-118>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.

&&

$$



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