Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241140
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
640 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
No major aviation concerns other than shifts in wind
speed/direction through the period. Northwest winds will continue
today and increase to 15-20 kts this afternoon. Winds will
gradually become northeasterly by this evening before diminishing
in speed. Later tonight, southeast winds will resume as a surface
low deepens east of the Rockies. A strong pressure gradient will
result in windy conditions on Thursday with south winds of 20-30
kts. Otherwise, only few high clouds are expected.

-Stalley

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/
A very cool morning for late May was underway due to a clear sky,
dry air and light winds. Temperatures at 3 AM were mainly in the
50s which will end up being record lows for this date in many
locations. A steady warmup is expected today with abundant sun
and adiabatic warming from a west to northwest wind. Afternoon
highs will warm into the 70s and lower 80s. However, it will feel
a bit cooler since wind speeds will increase once vigorous
boundary layer mixing commences.

A warming trend will begin tonight and increase on Thursday as
upper level high pressure builds over the state and low level warm
air advection becomes established. Afternoon highs on Thursday
will be considerably warmer than today and much more typical of
late May with mainly upper 80s and lower 90s. The western zones
will even reach the mid 90s as the dryline mixes in during the
late afternoon.

The warmup will continue into Friday even though the upper ridge
axis will shift to the Lower Mississippi Valley. The primary
root of the overall warmup will be increasing Gulf moisture ahead
of an approaching low pressure system. However, the return of the
dryline to the western zones will increase adiabatic warming in
the afternoon which should push some temperatures to the mystical
triple digits.

Even through large scale lift and mid level instability will be on
the increase Friday, mid level southwesterly flow (warm air) will
keep the a tight lid on any convection.

The low pressure system will translate east across the Rockies on
Saturday with the upper trough axis reaching West Texas by
afternoon. The atmosphere should remain largely capped across
North and Central Texas Saturday. However, the dryline will make
another run to the east in the afternoon and may be able to muster
up a few storms across the western zones before sunset.

The upper trough will move east across the state Saturday night
through Sunday and allow a cold front to move south across the
region. The front will become a focus for showers and storms with
the best chances on Sunday. Models have been fairly consistent
with moving the front south of the forecast area Sunday night and
stalling it out over South Texas on Memorial day. Therefore, some
elevated showers and storms will be possible across mainly the
southern zones Monday and Monday night.

Storm chances should return to the entire region on Tuesday as the
front lifts back to the north in response to another developing
low pressure system in the west. This low pressure system should
keep the weather unsettled as we move into early June.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  60  91  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                81  59  90  74  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  54  85  70  89 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              78  56  90  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            76  55  87  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80  62  91  75  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  57  87  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79  59  89  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              82  60  91  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       80  56  94  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/79


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