Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THE
ONLY MINOR CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING IN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA.

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
BKN-OVC CIRRUS ACROSS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT AND SYSTEM WILL BE
DRY AS LOWER-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY.

LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS THIS EVENING TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE INITIAL COLD FROPA JUST BEFORE 15Z SUNDAY. AS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME WITH DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79




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