Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271610 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE 1545Z SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
GRAHAM TO DENTON TO TYLER. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RADARS CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY LOW REFLECTIVITY RETURNS NORTHEAST OF A DURANT OKLAHOMA
TO EMORY LINE. THE 12Z KSHV RAOB SHOWS VERY DRY AIR BELOW 10K
FEET...AND HAVE ONLY FOUND A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THAT HAVE REPORTED -DZ. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
SPRINKLES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF A BONHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. UPDATES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 703 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DFW AREA THIS
MORNING...CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
BY LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE
EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...BUT SOME
SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AREA
TAF SITES.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO VEER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP IN SPEED TO AROUND 15
KTS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...NOTICEABLE CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS A STEADY PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY TOWARDS TEXAS. FIRST ON DECK SHOWS UP LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL ENCROACH UPON AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS AREA OF LIFT
COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH VERY SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT HIGHEST THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING A `WASH OUT` OF
THE ENTIRE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...JUST PERIODIC RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  46  82  56  82 /   5   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              76  46  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  41  74  50  77 /  10   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            70  44  82  55  82 /   5   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          67  43  77  54  80 /   5   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            69  46  82  56  82 /   5   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           67  43  78  54  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  46  79  56  80 /   5   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  46  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  46  86  54  85 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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