Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 312331 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...

A 500MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OREGON TO LOUISIANA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST WITH GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
KSEP /STEPHENVILLE/...KILE /KILLEEN/ AND KHOU. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX AND WACO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
LINGERING ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING AND SOME CUMULUS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 6 KNOTS BY 06Z AND THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER
THESE TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR 100 IN MANY AREAS WEST OF I-35...AND
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION IS ALSO SUFFICIENT TO
YIELD LOW AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF I-35. THE AIRMASS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS AS THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL PROMOTE STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS DUE TO
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
LOW THIS EVENING SO POPS WILL STAY AT 10-20 PERCENT WEST OF I-35.

OTHERWISE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INFILTRATE THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
AND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ACTUALLY SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE AIR TEMP. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO AID IN NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND LOW
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL.

THE WESTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIVERGENT WIND ALOFT. THUS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA...AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE DRY AND
STABLE...INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL MODELS ARE THAT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THUS SOME SHOWERS
OR WEAK STORMS MAY WANDER INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AS WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION...THIS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
TO COOL HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.

BY MONDAY THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING BACK INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY. HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO
THE 100-105 RANGE.     TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  98  76  98  78 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              73  98  72 100  75 /  10   5   5   5   0
PARIS, TX             69  96  71  97  73 /   5   0   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            71  96  71  97  74 /  10  10  10  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          70  96  72  96  75 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  98  77  99  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           70  98  72  98  75 /   5   0   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  99  72  99  76 /   5   0   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  99  71  99  74 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  96  71  97  73 /  20  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75


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