Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 062145
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

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&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              30  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           33  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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