Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230835
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS AROUND THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
METROPLEX. -RA MAY BRIEFLY BE OBSERVED AT KAFW AND KFTW BEFORE 06Z
BUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY BKN TO OVC SKIES DUE TO A MIX OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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