Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 100002 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
Metroplex TAF sites...VFR ceilings that have hung in across the
Metroplex for most of the day have been shifting north and should
be north of the Metroplex TAF sites shortly after the beginning
of the TAF period. Will have to keep an eye on another band of
clouds that currently extend from KMKN to KACT to KDKR. Have
indicated that these clouds will spread into the Metroplex toward
12z but this may occur toward 06z if current trends continue.
Expect mostly VFR ceilings through much of the day tomorrow. East
to southeast winds around 5 knots at TAF issuance time, are
expected to veer around to south at around 10 knots by 12z
Saturday and speeds will increase to around 15 knots by 18z.
Ceilings are expected to gradually lower with MVFR ceilings
forecast Saturday evening.
At Waco, VFR ceilings moved back across the region during the late
afternoon. Expect southeast winds around 5 knots to become
southerly 10 to 15 knots Saturday morning. Ceilings may lower
during the day with MVFR ceilings expected by 21z Saturday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/
Afternoon satellite imagery shows cloud cover holding strong
across much of the area mainly along and north of Interstate 20.
South of the Metroplex...skies have become mostly sunny and
temperatures have responded upward into the mid 40s. These clouds
should continue to thin over the next few hours with skies
becoming mostly clear later this evening. This will allow
temperatures to fall back into the upper 20s and lower 30s
areawide by tomorrow morning.
With the large surface high pressure center now shifting to the
east of the area...surface winds are gradually becoming more
southeasterly. These winds will increase substantially during the
day Saturday as surface pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a fast moving upper disturbance. In response...low level
moisture will surge northward through the day Saturday into
Saturday evening. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the lower
50s although temperatures won`t fall much more than that Saturday
night as the boundary layer continues to moisten and warm. By late
Saturday night into Sunday morning...areas of drizzle or light
rain are expected to develop. The most favored area will be along
and east of I-35 into our eastern counties where the best moisture
advection will be occurring. 20-30% PoPs are currently forecast
through midday Sunday in these areas. It looks like we`ll remain
strongly capped to deeper convection...so showers or areas of
drizzle look to be the main precip type. With strong
south/southwest winds during the day Sunday...temperatures will
warm back into the 70s areawide. A weak cold front will move into
the region late Sunday night which will cool things back down a
tad for Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 60s.
As we get into the middle of the week...fast zonal flow will
prevail across much of the CONUS but a large upper low will swing
through much of southern and eastern Canada. This upper low over
Canada is tied to some significantly colder air and will be the
source region for another cold front on Wednesday. At this time
the model guidance handles the position of the large Canadian low
reasonably well through mid week...although there is considerable
uncertainty with respect to amplification of heights over the
western U.S. during this time. If we do indeed amplify over the
western U.S. through late Tuesday...then it will be more likely
that the coldest air will slide to the east of our area.
However...if we stay more zonal then colder air will tend to slide
southward into our region.
For now...will continue with the consensus which is in line with
the previous forecast and show a rather strong cold front arriving
on Wednesday. If the guidance continues to suggest that the
coldest air will be east of here...then we will need to raise
temperatures through the mid/late week timeframe. As of now...it
does appear that precipitation chances will be quite low through
the upcoming week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 32 52 49 74 47 / 0 0 10 10 0
Waco 30 52 50 71 49 / 0 0 20 20 5
Paris 26 49 42 67 46 / 0 0 20 20 10
Denton 27 51 46 73 41 / 0 0 10 10 0
McKinney 28 49 45 70 44 / 0 0 20 20 0
Dallas 34 54 50 73 48 / 0 0 10 10 0
Terrell 31 50 47 69 48 / 0 0 20 20 5
Corsicana 32 52 49 71 53 / 0 0 20 20 5
Temple 30 50 48 70 51 / 0 0 20 10 5
Mineral Wells 28 56 46 73 40 / 0 0 10 5 0