Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231638

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Quick update this morning to near term temperature, sky, and
dewpoint trends. Dewpoints this hour are generally hanging out in
the mid 70s, although some upper 70 readings are still showing up
across our eastern-most counties. Based on our morning sounding,
we would expect dewpoints to mix out perhaps a degree or two more
this afternoon compared to yesterday, but it will also be hotter
today, with high temperatures soaring into the mid and upper 90s
across a good majority of our CWA ahead of an incoming cold front.
Heat index values at the top of the hour were, in fact, already
approaching the century mark at many locations. As a result, we`ve
gone ahead and expanded the heat advisory across our south and
eastern zones. Temperatures here will be a bit cooler (in the
lower to middle 90s), but it appears dewpoints in the mid and
upper 70s will still allow heat index values to top 105 degrees
for a few hours this afternoon. Whether your county is in a heat
advisory or not, it`s important to realize that it will feel
oppressively hot pretty much everywhere today, although relief is
in sight on Saturday.

The aforementioned cold front is making gradual progress southward
through northern and western Oklahoma at this hour, with a pre-
frontal wind shift noted out ahead of this feature on regional
surface observations. With the limited forcing associated with
the front waiting until late this afternoon and evening to
approach the Red River, much of the day looks to remain dry and
mainly sunny. PoPs will then increase as the front approaches
after 5 PM. Given such a moist atmosphere and surface-700 mb
theta-e deficits approaching 30-35 K this evening, there will be a
threat for strong downburst winds with any storms that manage to
develop. Given the limited forcing, however, any coverage is
expected to remain isolated late this afternoon and early evening.
More expansive shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected late
tonight-Saturday morning as elevated convection blossoms behind
the front. While the severe threat should diminish through the
late evening hours, a localized flash flooding threat may develop
given initially slow storm motions and a very moist atmosphere
with PWAT values near 2". We`ll take a closer look at this
potential after the receipt of all the morning model data.



.AVIATION... /Issued 710 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/
/12Z TAFs/

The primary concern within this forecast package is thunderstorm
impacts from this evening into early Saturday morning.

IFR and low MVFR stratus is blanketing portions of Central and
East Texas. There has been rapid expansion to the north around
daybreak, and Waco will experience temporary ceilings through
mid-morning. The GRK VWP suggests that the westerly component
within the low-level jet (FL020-040) should keep the western edge
of the cloud bank near Waco. The June sun will erode this thin
layer later this morning.

A cold front has invaded northern Oklahoma and the Texas
Panhandle. With favorable northerly flow in the wake of Cindy, the
boundary will make steady progress southward today. Winds will
steadily veer to the east, becoming northeasterly in the Metroplex
this evening. With weak boundary layer flow, the convergence near
the surface boundary may be insufficient for convective initiation
with its passage, and will continue to carry only VCTS during that
time. Keeping with tradition for late June, the cross-boundary
flow aloft is similarly weak. But as the 850mb front arrives, the
steepening upglide of this maritime tropical air should be
sufficient for widespread showers and thunderstorms after midnight
tonight. This will gradually taper off to light showers or
stratiform rain before the complex dissipates during the daylight
hours of Saturday morning.



.DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/
The main weather stories for North and Central Texas will be the
heat today and then thunderstorm chances late this afternoon
through the weekend along with some cooler weather.

Tropical Depression Cindy continues to move northeast across
Central Arkansas this morning. In its wake, we will be in an area
of subsidence today. With skies being or becoming mostly sunny,
temperatures will rise into the 90s to 103 degrees across the
region. These temperatures, when combined with dewpoints in the
mid 60s to mid 70s, will result in afternoon heat index values of
100 to 110 degrees across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory is in
effect from Noon through 7 PM today for areas from Bowie to
Lampasas east to Bonham and Hearne where heat index values of 105
to 110 degrees are expected. Winds in the 5 to 10 mph range will
provide little relief from the heat.

A cold front that extended from northeastern Kansas southwest
into the Texas Panhandle at 3 AM will move into the northwestern
part of the forecast area late this afternoon and through all but
the southeastern zones by sunrise Saturday. Expect scattered
thunderstorms to develop along this front and this activity will
become more numerous tonight as the front moves southeast. Hail to
1 inch in diameter, and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible
with the strongest storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Locally heavy rain will also be a weather hazard as well as cloud
to ground lightning.

The summer cold front will sweep through the rest of the forecast
area Saturday night. The best chances of rain will shift to the
south of the I-20 corridor by midday. With northwest flow aloft
continuing and a weak frontal boundary to our south, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through
Monday. Low chances of showers and thunderstorm will return
Wednesday and Thursday mainly southeast of a Temple to Sulphur
Springs line.

Temperatures will be below seasonal normals Saturday through
Tuesday. Some spots across the north may see temperatures top out
in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday; otherwise, expect highs
mostly in the 80s through Tuesday. Temperatures will warm up mid
week with some mid to upper 90s possible by the end of the work



Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  73  82  71  86 /  10  70  70  20  20
Waco               100  74  86  71  87 /   5  50  60  30  30
Paris               93  69  81  66  84 /  30  70  60  20   5
Denton             100  69  80  68  85 /  20  70  60  20  10
McKinney            97  70  80  68  85 /  20  70  70  20  10
Dallas              99  73  82  71  87 /  10  70  70  20  20
Terrell             96  73  82  70  86 /  10  70  70  30  10
Corsicana           95  72  84  70  86 /  10  60  60  40  30
Temple              99  74  88  71  87 /   5  40  60  30  30
Mineral Wells      100  69  80  67  84 /  10  70  70  30  20


Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-102>105-



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