Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201814 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VSBY TRENDS...TIMING SWITCH TO SOUTH FLOW.

PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
AT MIDDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
HAS PROLONGED THE DRIZZLE AND IFR CEILINGS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY TOP 2000FT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNLIKELY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANOTHER LINE IN THE TAFS.

DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
TOO LATE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A STOUT INVERSION. THE
SURFACE LAYER WILL SATURATE AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. SUCH A SCENARIO SUGGESTS LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DOMINATE...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL OVC005
FOR 9 HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...THE
INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...RESULTING IN A 4TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH A PLODDING TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...DUE MAINLY TO DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 925-850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...HAVE NO EXPECTATION
OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TODAY...TONIGHT...OR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              51  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             48  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            45  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           48  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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