Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 210954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
354 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

/Today and Tonight/

The combination of increasing upper-level diffluence in
association with the right entrance region of an upper-level jet
streak and yet another shortwave moving out of Coahuila, Mexico is
resulting in the development of our next wave of precipitation.
Recent hi-res guidance seems to be catching onto most of this
activity pretty well, which lends confidence to PoPs in the
short-term which will be near 90-100 percent for much of the
region. Temperatures are obviously one of the more important
aspects of the short-term forecast. As of 3 AM, the freeze line
extended from near a Bonham to Decatur to Mineral Wells to
Comanche line. Any precipitation north and west of here is falling
as a mixture of rain and freezing rain. A combination of the
colder NAM guidance and the GFS LAMP data actually seemed to be
doing a respectable job with regards to temperatures, and this
guidance was generally used to depict temperatures today and
tonight. With lingering gusty north winds in the wake of
yesterday`s front and temperatures north of the Red River hanging
out in the mid and upper 20s, cold advection will persist through
the morning and into the afternoon hours across the region
allowing temperatures to slowly fall across the western 2/3rds of
the area.

This current batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist into the mid-morning hours before gradually peeling away
to the east. Up along the Red River, we elected to add Fannin
county to the winter weather advisory for this morning activity
with temperatures falling to around 30. Locales from near Bonham
to McKinney to Dallas and points eastward should actually slowly
warm during the afternoon, however, as surface winds become more

Our far north and western counties continue to be where our
highest concern is for icing issues, as this is where the
combination of the coldest temperatures (falling into the upper
20s) and an additional wave of possibly convective precipitation
develops during the late-morning and early-afternoon. Here,
roughly west of a Cisco to Gainesville line, some ice
accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch can be anticipated,
creating for treacherous travel today.

The immediate Metroplex posed the next conundrum. While it seems
likely that outlying spots across parts of Tarrant County will
fall to below freezing this morning (the Alliance and Azle areas,
for example), guidance supports mainly 31-32 degree readings here,
which should help curtail any significant icing issues.
Regardless, some elevated roadways may become slick, and a glazing
on trees is possible here. Basically, the message here is that
while freezing rain is technically occurring at 32 degrees, it
typically takes several hours at 29-30 or so to start causing
substantial issues. Either way, take it slow this morning where
temperatures have fallen to 31-32.

It`s looking like the most widespread/heaviest precipitation will
clear the region by early this evening, but we may have to contend
with very light showers/drizzle as the low-level remain quite
moist. For this reason, the winter weather advisory was extended
through midnight tonight to account for any lingering issues.

Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall will persist today, and with
yesterday`s soaking rainfall, it won`t take a lot of additional
precipitation to cause some runoff issues.



/Thursday through Tuesday/

After a brief respite overnight Wednesday night, another
shortwave is expected to approach Thursday. With temperatures
expected to be 28 to 32 degrees around daybreak Thursday along and
northwest of a Goldthwaite to Glen Rose to Sherman line, have
included a mention of freezing rain or rain/freezing rain in those
areas. Temperatures should rise above freezing by midday and have
just gone with a chance of showers area wide with isolated
thunderstorms from Lampasas to Gainesville line. Highs Thursday
will range from the upper 30s northwest to near 50 southeast.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue into Saturday with
good chances of showers and thunderstorms. Fortunately, as a
surface ridge moves east, winds will come around to the east and
southeast Friday and to the south Friday night. This will result
in a warm-up. Temperatures Thursday night will be nearly steady in
the mid 30s northwest to around 50 southeast. A warm front will
lift northward during the day Friday. Highs will range from the
lower 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. As a shortwave
moves out of the Rockies Saturday, a cold front will sweep through
the region, bringing drier air and a temporary end to the rain by
Saturday night. Dry weather is then expected through Monday. An
approaching shortwave will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region again overnight Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal
Sunday through Tuesday.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/
/06z TAFs/

The next wave of ascent appears to be moving off the high terrain
of Coahuila near Del Rio, Texas late this evening. Broad warm
advection continues ahead of this feature which is resulting in
continued showery activity occasionally impacting area terminals.
While most activity has been slowly weakening as it`s been
approaching the Metroplex TAF sites, just enough elevated
instability remains for a few embedded storms for a few more hours
before this instability aloft decreases (briefly). Recent hi-res
guidance is in fairly good agreement that this aformentioned
increased ascent will result in the development of another rather
widespread area of showers late tonight which will impact the
Metroplex terminals into the mid-morning hours. The latest
indications are for this next batch of precipitation to gradually
clear the Metroplex towards 15z. This is important because
surface temperatures by this time are forecast to approach and
fall below the freezing mark, especially at KAFW and KFTW. Since
sufficient evidence exists to suggest that a gradual drying trend
may take place, have left out the mention of -FZRA in this TAF
issuance. However, should this precipitation hang on longer than
currently anticipated, impacts from some light freezing rain will
be possible, potentially even at DFW perhaps during the 14-17z
time frame.

After a brief lull in activity, another disturbance is forecast to
ripple overhead along with increasing elevated instability once
again with SHRA and VCTS Wednesday afternoon. As this batch clears
the Metroplex sites, low-level saturation and lingering weak lift
down low may support drizzle and mist through the overnight hours.
At this time, temperatures Wednesday night are forecast to be just
above freezing.

At Waco, overall similar trends are anticipated with the same
slug of moisture and lift resulting in the development of
additional showers--perhaps with more in the way of embedded
lightning--overnight. Here, temperatures aren`t expected to be as
much of an issue with the freezing line staying off to the north
and west.

Overall, IFR cigs are anticipated through the forecast period
right around FL008-010, but periodic fluctuations to low-MVFR will
be possible.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    35  33  40  40  61 / 100  40  70  70  80
Waco                40  34  43  43  66 / 100  40  70  70  70
Paris               44  38  50  48  64 / 100  60  80  90  80
Denton              33  32  39  39  57 /  90  40  60  70  80
McKinney            35  33  43  41  61 / 100  50  70  70  80
Dallas              36  34  42  42  63 / 100  40  70  70  80
Terrell             42  35  47  46  66 / 100  60  80  80  80
Corsicana           43  35  46  46  67 / 100  60  80  80  70
Temple              43  34  44  44  67 / 100  40  70  70  60
Mineral Wells       31  31  39  39  56 /  80  30  50  60  80


Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ092>095-102>107-116>123-

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for



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