Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 281733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN ORIENTATION...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPERIENCING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH
UPON NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
VERY STRONG REGARDING THE FORCING NEEDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IF
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET GOING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE BEING PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO FELT THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
STRONG...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP VERY MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/ FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.

THERE REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT
BEING SAID...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
HAVE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SUPPORT TO SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEREFORE THE RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT
OUT OF OUR AREA AS WELL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...UNTIL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
WACO, TX              84  58  84  62  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             73  50  78  56  69 /   5   0  10  30  30
DENTON, TX            81  54  83  59  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  53  81  60  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  55  82  60  74 /   5   0   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  82  61  76 /   0   0   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  58  83  62  78 /   0   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  54  88  58  76 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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