Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221701 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1201 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
A cloudy, windy, chilly day will continue across North and
Central Texas for the remainder of the day. For the update,
lowered high temperatures across the region, and some locations
will struggle to even reach the 60s this afternoon as widespread
cloud cover and cold air advection aren`t expected to allow too
much more warming. Isolated areas of light rain or sprinkles will
also continue this afternoon as troughing persists overhead and
some isentropic lift occurs near the 310-315K surface. Wind speeds
of 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph will continue into the early
evening hours.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 706 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
/12Z TAFs/

A shallow cold front continues its march into far East TX and the
Upper TX Coast early this morning with gusty northwest winds 15
to 20 knots in its wake. Cigs and a few lingering showers will be
a challenge through the morning hours, as lingering lift works
upon slightly lingering mid-level moisture over the region. Have
decided to hold onto VCSH in the forecast through mid-late
morning, as we await lingering ascent to shift east of the area.

The deepening frontal inversion will remain relatively saturated
through early-mid afternoon with a slow rise of cigs into VFR. NNW
winds of 15 to 25 knots will persist well into the afternoon
hours, as cold low level thermal advection and a tight pressure
gradient continue across the area. VFR cigs scatter out this
evening with northwest winds diminishing in response to a surface
high pressure settling across the TX Panhandle and South Plains.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
The well advertised cold front continues to plow through Central
TX at this hour. Additional weak/short-lived convection will
likely fire across southern and southeastern zones as the surface
cold front slides southward through the remainder of the forecast
area, but the overall threat for widespread severe weather is
expected to be mitigated by increasing surface based CINH and the
tendency for convection to be undercut by the swift moving front.

Farther to the north, isolated convection (without any lightning)
continues, likely in response to modest isentropic upglide along
the 310K theta surface and this should continue through at least
midday. This conveyor of lift is expected to shift towards the
east by the afternoon with subsidence in its wake. It will be a
cool and blustery day today as the surface pressure gradient will
be tight across North and Central TX. Moisture will remain trapped
beneath the frontal inversion, so clouds should be slow to clear.
With north winds and cold air advection, temperatures may
struggle to near 70 for a good portion of North and Central TX
with mostly precipitation-free conditions this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures remain somewhat tricky, but it appears
that most areas will fall into the 40s. Depending on the rate of
clearing and how fast the winds subside, it`s conceivable that
some of the outlying/rural areas across northwestern and Red River
zones fall into the upper 30s. For now, will go as low as 40-41
degrees for some overnight temperatures.

Sunday should be another breezy day to start, but winds won`t be
quite as strong as the surface pressure gradient loosens a bit.
Mostly sunny skies and veering surface winds will allow
temperatures to moderate into the 70s across much of the area.
Another cool night is anticipated Sunday night into Monday and for
eastern zones, it`s quite conceivable that temperatures are lower
Monday morning compared to Sunday morning as the periphery of the
surface ridge may result in nearly calm winds. For locales along
and west of I-35, overnight temperatures will be comparable or
slightly higher courtesy of a slight increase in low level
moisture/southeasterly winds.

The warming trend will continue through the week as zonal flow
across the Central Plains induces good lee-side cyclogenesis. The
resultant wind field will allow for a return of modified Gulf air,
initially across the Big Country and then farther east into North
and Central TX. With time, broad troughing will likely give birth
to a dryline across the region. The exact location of this
feature will need to be examined closely, but at this time---
convective chances on Tuesday appear low due to lack of large
scale synoptic forcing for ascent as well as the formidable cap
that will be in place. The dryline`s biggest impact will be on
afternoon high temperatures. In the wake of the dryline, west
winds and subsequent downsloping will likely aid in high
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. Areas east of the
dryline will still be quite warm, but humid with temperatures in
the upper 80s.

A cool down is expected on Wednesday as a front invades from the
north. At this time, it appears that only far eastern zones will
be the beneficiaries of perhaps some low rain chances as
convection develops across eastern OK and the Ozarks and moves
towards the south. At this point in time, I don`t have high
confidence in high rain chances, given the spread among the model
guidance, but for now will advertise just low-end rain chances. We
will also have to watch the interface of the front/dryline merger
as there may be some ascent here to produce convection. Again, the
cap appears to be quite stout in forecast soundings, so for now,
I`ll go with a precipitation-free forecast out across western
zones. The front should clear most of the forecast area before
stalling across portions of south-central TX.

With the zonal flow aloft, it`s probable that this boundary will
lift back towards the north as a warm front through the day on
Thursday. There may be some chances for rain, but right now, it
appears that the best threat will be across areas along and north
of a Hearne to Cleburne to Graham line where forcing from the
entrance region of an upper jet combined with the ascent along the
front warrant some precipitation chances. A dryline will sharpen
out across western zones as well. There are some details that
will be examined over the next several days, but forecast
soundings indicate a large cap in place across the region. With
areas just east of the dryline being somewhat removed from the
best forcing, the more probable areas for precip should be to the
north. This activity would likely be elevated in nature and pose a
hail threat, but again, we will have to monitor the strength of
the cap and vigor of upper level forcing.

Friday and into the weekend does have the potential to be a bit
more active in terms of weather as a trough should dig far south
enough into the region to provide sufficient lift for
precipitation. With adequate values of CAPE and favorable shear
profiles, the stage could be set for another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms across North and Central TX. Right now,
details are a little unclear, but just about all modes of severe
weather appear plausible.

24-Bain

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  46  73  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   5
Waco                62  47  73  44  81 /  20   0   0   0   5
Paris               60  43  71  43  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              62  42  73  44  78 /  20   0   0   0   5
McKinney            62  46  72  46  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              62  48  74  52  80 /  20   0   0   0   5
Terrell             62  46  73  45  79 /  20   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  46  73  48  79 /  20   5   0   0   0
Temple              63  49  74  44  80 /  20   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       60  44  74  45  82 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/82



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