Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 172055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING ANY SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A DECAYING MCS FROM OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING MAKING IT INTO THE
METROPLEX IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF INCLUSION INTO LATER
TAFS IS NECESSARY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 UTC. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER STRATUS DISSIPATES
AND HEATING COMMENCES LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN METROPLEX
TAFS.


MVFR STRATUS AT WACO SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 20-21Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED
A VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20-01Z PERIOD. AFTER 01Z...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
AFTER 09Z EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH WITH IFR TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS AND ALSO SOME FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING /AROUND 16Z/.

15/58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  50  60  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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