Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200436 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1136 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through 12z Monday. Abundant high
clouds from Saturday afternoon`s convection moved across North
Texas during the evening hours. These high clouds should thin
toward daybreak Sunday. Winds have backed around to the southeast
and will veer around to the south toward 12z Sunday and maybe
briefly south southwest late morning before backing back to the
southeast toward 20z Sunday. Winds speeds will remain in the 6 to
10 knot range.

58

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 950 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/
The showers and thunderstorms that developed across areas north of
I-20 during the afternoon had nearly dissipated as of 945 PM.
Have just made some minor temperature and cloud cover adjustments
with this update.

Concerning the possibility of a Heat Advisory for parts of North
and Central Texas Sunday and Monday, heat index values will be
borderline and dependent on how much moisture mixes out during the
afternoons. At this time, believe that some sites will reach heat
index values of 105 degrees Sunday and some will reach it Monday,
but given the areal coverage and how borderline it will be, will
opt not to issue a Heat Advisory at this time.

58

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/
/Through Tonight/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across
our northwestern zones as of 230 PM within an area of higher
moisture content. There is little/no large scale ascent in place,
so this activity has been driven almost entirely by buoyancy as
parcels reach their convective temperatures (mid to upper 90s).
Expect to see continued isolated development anywhere generally
along and north of the I-20 corridor and mostly west of I-35
through the peak heating hours. The main hazard with thunderstorms
today is the downburst wind threat with some very favorable
inverted-V profiles in place. Theta-e differences from the surface
to mid-levels are as much as 25-30K, which climatologically is a
preferred value for severe microbursts in North Texas. Near
Breckenridge (which had a surface dewpoint depression of 35F),
relatively weak thunderstorms already produced gusts in excess of
40 mph.

As heating wanes this evening, activity should subside giving way
to a tranquil, warm night. Temperatures will fall into the mid and
upper 70s for most locations under clearing skies with light
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...  /Issued 356 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/
/Sunday through Saturday/
An upper level ridge will build across the region during the next
couple of days. This should limit thunderstorm activity Sunday
through Monday to the east of the I-35 corridor. There may be some
isolated thunderstorms during the day Tuesday especially across
the southeastern zones where some seabreeze activity will be
possible, but the chances (10 percent PoPs) are not high enough
to include in the Day 3 forecast at this time. High temperatures
will be a little lower ranging from the mid 90s to slightly over
100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values Sunday through Tuesday
will be close to or slightly above Heat Advisory levels. Areal
coverage of the 105 degrees or greater heat index will be
borderline. We will reevaluate this evening and may end up issuing
one for parts of North and Central Texas this evening to cover
the Sunday and Monday period.

The upper level ridge will break down by Tuesday afternoon and as
a shortwave moves down the Plains, a cold front will move
southward. This front should cross the Red River before daybreak
Wednesday and move through Central Texas Wednesday night. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will spread to areas northwest of a
Comanche to Canton line Tuesday night and chances will spread
across all of North and Central Texas Wednesday. Rain chances will
continue through Saturday as another shortwave is expected to
move down the Plains in the northwestern flow aloft. The front,
and more importantly, the cloud cover and convection will result
in cooler weather for the Wednesday through Saturday period.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79 100  78  98  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
Waco                77 100  76  99  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
Paris               76  97  75  95  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Denton              79  98  76  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
McKinney            77  97  74  95  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
Dallas              80  99  79  98  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
Terrell             76  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5  10  10
Corsicana           77  99  76  99  76 /  10  10   5  10  10
Temple              75 100  75 100  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       75  97  74  96  73 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/25



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