Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 160442 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017


.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

No major changes to the TAF forecast through the period. VFR
conditions will prevail with northerly flow around 10 kt. Winds
will become light easterly late tomorrow night into Tuesday
morning areawide as the surface high shifts to the east. No major
aviation concerns expected through the period.

Dunn

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/
/Through Tonight/

It`s a much quieter short term forecast this afternoon as the
cold front that has brought a taste of Fall to the area continues
to plow through South TX. Breezy north winds have ushered in
cooler conditions with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

For tonight, breezy north winds will relax as surface high
pressure settles in across west TX and the Big Country. Mid-level
cumuliform clouds should diminish with just a few high clouds,
especially across Central TX. Dry air in place at the surface
should result in a good radiational cooling night across most of
the area. The limiting factor for more optimal nocturnal cooling,
however, will be elevated winds just above the surface. This is
reflected in forecast soundings and this output indicates that the
boundary layer will not completely decouple from the free
atmosphere. All that being stated, it should still be a cool and
crisp night! Temperatures should still fall into the low to mid
40s across northwest/western zones (closer to the center of the
surface ridge) and 50s elsewhere. A few of the more
sheltered/rural sites across Central and East TX may also see
temperatures dip into the upper 40s.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/
/Monday through Sunday/

The upper level trough that helped push today`s front through the
region will be moving across the Northeastern CONUS on Monday, and
weak upper level ridging from the west will replace our large
scale weather pattern. Monday will still be a pleasant day under
the influence of northwest flow aloft, clear skies and
significantly lighter surface winds. Highs will be in the 70s,
and then it will cool into the 40s overnight. Some locations in
our western and northwestern counties may even dip into the upper
30s. Optimal radiational cooling in this area may be mitigated by
a quick return of southwest winds in the 925-850 mb layer, but
wind speeds should be light enough that maybe a handful of sites
will drop below the 40-degree mark.

Pleasant temperatures and dry weather will continue Tuesday
through Thursday, but temperatures will warm a little each day as
the upper level ridge moves through the area from our southwest
to our southeast. Highs in the lower to mid 80s will be common
during the latter half of the week. Overnight lows will also
slowly warm and will increase more noticeably by Friday when
better low level moisture return is expected.

On Friday, a weak upper level trough will move into the region,
and a few showers and thunderstorms may occur across parts of
Central Texas where better moisture will reside. A stronger upper
level trough is expected on the heels of the weaker trough, but
continued timing differences between the models lend little
confidence in the forecast for next weekend. The ECMWF is the
fastest with the upper level trough, bringing it and a front
through on Saturday night-Sunday. The GFS is slower and stalls
the upper level trough to our west. GEFS ensemble spreads and the
EPS (European Ensembles) also seem to favor a slower timing, but
we will wait and watch the trends.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  74  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                45  75  44  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               47  72  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              44  73  43  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            43  73  43  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              51  74  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             47  74  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           51  74  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              48  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  72  43  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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