Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221836
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
136 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017


.AVIATION...
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR cessation this afternoon and gradual wind shift.
MVFR ceiling potential at Waco Friday morning.

Metroplex TAF sites---MVFR cigs have continued early this
afternoon across the Metroplex in association with moisture
pivoting around T.D. Cindy. Cigs should become VFR during the mid
to late afternoon time frame as Cindy gradually lifts towards the
northeast and the late June sun shines. Winds will also become
more easterly and eventually southeasterly as Cindy departs.
Thereafter VFR will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
cycle.

Beyond this current set of TAFs, including beyond the DFW
extended, there will be a threat for showers and thunderstorms
along a southward advancing cold front.

Waco TAF site---MVFR cigs will continue over the next 1-2 hours
before gradually lifting to VFR. Southeasterly winds will return
later this evening of around 8 knots. Towards sunrise on Friday,
there may be a brief window of opportunity for some MVFR ceilings,
but overall potential is too low to include in the TAF at this
time.

24-Bain

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall over extreme southwestern
Louisiana and is expected to move northward today near or just
east of the Texas/Louisiana line this morning and gradually turn
to the north northeast and then northeast during the next 24 hours
bringing it into northern Mississippi by daybreak Friday.
Given this track, the impacts across North Texas will be limited
as we will be on the western side of the system. A band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move into the eastern
most counties today. Have placed some low PoPs (20 percent) just
east of I-35/US75 with increasing chances up to 60 percent across
the far eastern counties. Rainfall totals from this event may
reach 1 inch in some areas east of a Centerville to Emory line but
the widespread heavy rain will be to the east of our forecast
area.

Clouds from the tropical storm can be seen on satellite extending
to west of the I-35 corridor this morning. After morning lows in
the mid 60s to lower 70s, temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
east to the mid 90s northwest. Winds will be north to northeast
at 5 to 15 mph.

Some low chances of showers will linger into tonight east of a
Bonham to Hearne line and it should be rain-free elsewhere as
the remnants of Cindy move farther away. Lows will be close to
seasonal normals with upper 60s to mid 70s expected.

With Cindy exiting and a shortwave moving through the trough
over the Northern and Central Plains, a cold front is expected to
move south and approach the Red River by mid Friday afternoon.
With subsidence in the wake of Cindy and some heating ahead of the
approaching front, temperatures should rise into the 90s across
North and Central Texas and some locations, especially across the
northwest and also over parts of Central Texas, may reach the
century mark. The NAM MOS guidance is even going with a high of 99
degrees at DFW and 100 for Dallas Love Field for Friday.

Maximum heat index values will approach 105 degrees across much of
the forecast area Friday afternoon but given the cool down
expected Saturday, we don`t anticipate that we will be issuing a
Heat Advisory. There will be some low chances of showers and
thunderstorms with the front Friday afternoon near the Red River.

The much-welcomed summer cold front is expected to move through
the rest of North and Central Texas Friday night. There will be a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide Friday night
and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
through Monday. High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s
Saturday through Monday which will be 6 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

There will be low chances of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along and west of a Bowie to Hearne line Tuesday and
along and east of a Sherman to Temple line Wednesday.
Temperatures will slowly rise but expect them to be near or below
seasonal normals through midweek.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  97  73  84  72 /   5  10  60  50  40
Waco                75  99  75  87  72 /   5   5  40  50  40
Paris               73  90  70  82  68 /  20  20  50  50  40
Denton              74  97  71  83  70 /   0  20  60  50  40
McKinney            74  95  71  83  69 /   5  20  70  50  40
Dallas              76  97  73  84  73 /   5  10  60  50  40
Terrell             74  95  73  83  70 /  20  10  60  50  40
Corsicana           75  95  73  84  71 /  20  10  50  50  40
Temple              75  98  75  89  71 /   5   5  30  50  40
Mineral Wells       71  99  70  84  69 /   0  10  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/91



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