Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 121644
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service TULSA OK
1044 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.AVIATION...
In the wake of the dry frontal passage, N-NW surface winds will
begin to relax in the 22Z-24Z time frame. As the surface ridge
axis slides south-southeast overnight, winds will return to the
W-SW. Sfc winds will continue to veer after 18z in response to an
upper trough moving southeast into the midwest and another dry
boundary approaching from the north. A few high clouds from time
to time possible through the period, otherwise VFR TAF elements
to prevail all sites.


&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 950 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
Full sunshine expected across the forecast area today, with winds
the only element at this time to keep an eye on. Forecast afternoon
high temperatures look good per area soundings. The aforementioned
wind grids are representative at this time, so that and the
remaining forecast elements will be left as they are.

No update planned at this time.



&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
/Wednesday Onward/

The extended forecast will consist largely of near- or above-
normal temperatures with a couple days of fire weather concerns.
Rain chances will be scarce with only a slight chance for showers
on Sunday.

By Wednesday morning, southwest winds will have resumed area-wide
following Tuesday`s cold frontal passage. With the return of
southerly flow, temperatures should soar into the upper 60s and
70s during the afternoon while moisture remains meager with
dewpoints mostly in the 20s. Above normal temperatures, RHs in the
teens, and winds of 10-20 mph will result in elevated/critical
fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours, especially
given the primed fuels across the region.

By Wednesday evening, another front will begin moving into Texas
from the north. This should clear the entire forecast area
overnight, leaving cooler conditions (closer to seasonal normals)
for Thursday. A secondary push of stronger cold advection will
arrive later Thursday into Friday as the primary trough axis
pivots eastward. Friday should be just a few degrees cooler than
Thursday as a result. North winds will continue through Friday
evening, keeping moisture scoured from the area.

As a southerly flow regime resumes on Saturday, it may bring some
of the highest dewpoints we`ve seen in several days. This increase
in moisture and any associated rain chances however, will be
dependent on the timing/phasing of a couple upstream shortwaves.
At this point, the moisture will likely arrive too late to
prevent some elevated or critical fire danger on Saturday
afternoon. Winds will be quite breezy (gusts 25-35 mph) and with
warm temperatures in the forecast, this could set the stage for a
significant fire weather threat as RHs fall as low as 20%.

Regarding weekend rain potential, the latest ECMWF has come in
with a wetter solution for late Saturday/Sunday owing to a lead
shortwave ejecting through the southern stream which would act to
quickly pull a surge of moisture into the area before a stronger
secondary trough approaches from the northwest while providing
stronger lift. The operational GFS does not eject the lead
disturbance and its rainfall forecast hinges solely on the larger
northern stream trough, hence a drier forecast for North and
Central TX. It`s worth noting that a few GEFS members are
generating a decent amount of rainfall over portions of East TX,
so any westward shift would certainly warrant some higher PoPs.
For now, I`ve introduced some 20%s for areas east of I-35.
Regardless, the potential for meaningful rainfall over the weekend
still appears bleak at best. The shortwave will also be sending
yet another cold front through the area early Sunday, which will
once again scour moisture from the area while returning
temperatures to near-normal. The forecast through early next week
largely appears mild and dry at this time as a transition to
increasingly zonal flow aloft occurs through the middle of the
week.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  39  73  41  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                62  31  69  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  32  68  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              56  32  73  34  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            56  33  70  35  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  40  72  42  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             59  31  70  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           60  33  68  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              62  31  69  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  32  75  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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