Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200253 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
953 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The cold front is quickly surging through southern Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas and is expected to reach our far northwestern
counties before 11 pm. The front is currently undercutting storms
around the Vernon and Frederick area that were strong and even
reached severe limits for a short time. The environment ahead of
the storms is still unstable and capable of supporting strong
storms. The window for strong storms is closing but still a
possibility in our northwest counties through at least midnight.
Overnight, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out completely
but with the steady forward progress of the front quickly
undercutting any development along the leading edge and the best
upper level lift moving east with the upper level trough, the
potential for stronger storms is not as high.

No significant changes were needed for the overnight period but
adjusted hourly trends and especially dewpoints based on latest
observations and new guidance. Breezy and noticeably cooler air
will arrive with the front but noticeably drier air will lag a
few hours. New guidance suggests some of the best rain may now be
across the northeastern half of the region, closer to the track of
the upper level trough, and made some adjustments to the PoP
trends as a result.



/ISSUED 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Timing of convection and frontal passage. Outside of
convection, low MVFR potential post-FROPA with breezy north winds.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR will likely prevail through at
least midnight before poor flying conditions are expected.
As of 2340 UTC, a sharp cold front was located from near a
Vernon, TX, to Norman, OK to Tulsa, OK line. This front will
continue to slide southward and should promote the development of
new convection. This convection may move into a warm, dry and
well-mixed low level airmass which could result in some slightly
faster storm motions to the south. As a result, I believe that TS
at most Metroplex TAF sites will be closer to 07 UTC. The
exception may be GKY which should experience convection closer to
08 UTC. Breezy winds are expected with any thunderstorm. Dry air
should slide southward quickly to preclude a threat for a brief
hours or two of post-frontal MVFR cigs. Trends will be monitored
over the next several hours to address this possibility. I expect,
however, that VFR conditions will prevail in the wake of FROPA.
The clearing skies along with good CAA and a tight surface
pressure gradient as advertised by most NWP should support good
momentum transfer and thus breezy conditions. As a result, I`ll
continue the gusty winds in the afternoon portion of the TAFs with
gusts to near 25 knots. SKC is expected late Thursday afternoon
and into Friday with no aviation concerns expected during that
time frame.

For the Waco TAF site---FROPA will be a couple of hours later,
closer to 10-12 UTC on Thursday morning. Breezy winds will be
possible with storms. Breezy winds will also be possible in the
wake of FROPA. Similar to the Metroplex TAF sites, dry air
advection should limit the window of opportunity for post frontal
MVFR stratus, but this will be re-visited at the 06 UTC TAF



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
Only a few more hours to go before temperatures begin to feel like
they are supposed to for this time of year. The cold front is
currently located across Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and The Texas
Panhandle. 2 PM temperature readings were in the mid to upper 80s
in North and Central Texas, dropped to the low 80s near Childress,
and were already in the 60s in Amarillo and Dalhart. With the cold
front moving into the area tonight, the 90s will go away for a
while at least.

Over the next seven days, the cold front and associated rain
chances are the main forecast challenge. The front is expected to
move into the the northwestern portion of our area after 10 PM,
and slowly move northwest to southeast through the night. Rain
chances will rise to around 70 to 80 percent for some areas, with
much of this occurring in a one to three hour period as the front
moves through. The gridded forecast database will show the hourly
progression of the chances for rain and wind shift as the system
moves across North and Central Texas. There will be a brief
window just before midnight, where a severe thunderstorm is
possible, especially along the Red River.

After the front moves through overnight and Thursday morning, we
will be left with seasonable temperatures, with highs returning to the
70s and morning lows in the 40s and 50s by early Friday. Rain is
not anticipated through this weekend and temperatures will
moderate back into the upper 70s to near 80. By late next week,
the synoptic scale models beginning to come into better agreement
in brining rain chances back to North and Central Texas by the end
of next week and next weekend.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  74  53  73  52 /  80  60   0   0   0
Waco                68  78  50  76  47 /  40  60   0   0   0
Paris               64  75  49  72  48 /  80  40   0   0   0
Denton              64  73  47  72  48 /  80  30   0   0   0
McKinney            64  73  49  71  48 /  80  30   0   0   0
Dallas              65  74  53  73  53 /  80  70   0   0   0
Terrell             65  74  51  73  49 /  80  70   0   0   0
Corsicana           68  75  52  75  50 /  60  70   0   0   0
Temple              67  76  51  76  48 /  30  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       62  74  47  73  47 /  70  20   0   0   0




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