National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 151717
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY WEAK FORCING NOTED TODAY. THERE
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY UNLESS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S.
WITH HEAVY CLOUD COVER IT APPEARS THAT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...BUT ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD WARM THINGS UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
STORMS. WILL LEAVE THE VCTS IN DURING MAX HEATING...AND EXPECT
THAT AS EVENING PROGRESSES THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND LESS
CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED. A FEW MODELS DEVELOP MORNING CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LACK OF CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST BETWEEN SWEETWATER AND WICHITA FALLS AS OF LATE
MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
REFLECTIONS WAS NOTED AROUND THROCKMORTON WITH GENERALLY A SSE
WINDS 10-15 MPH EAST OF I-35 AND WEAKER MORE CHAOTIC FLOW TO THE
WEST. RADAR WAS ACTIVE WITH WEAK ECHOES MAINLY WEST OF I-35...THOUGH
A MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS VERY HIGH-BASED AND NOT PRODUCING
ANY MORE THAN SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

THIS UPDATE IS MAINLY TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. 24 HOUR
DIFFERENCES RANGED BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES COOLERS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FORT WORTH TO SHREVEPORT/LAKE CHARLES ALL
INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT EAST OF I-35...WITH AREAS WEST TOWARD ABILENE
MORE MOIST ADIABATIC AS ONE WOULD EXPECT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF -3 TO -4 K/KM ARE FORECASTED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST BET FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY VERY SMALL HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FURTHER WEST...
FEEL ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...THOUGH ISOLATED
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL PRESENT A THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THOSE OUTDOORS TODAY. BRIEF/HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OR 1.75-2.00 INCHES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP STORMS MOVING AND BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME TALL STORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK
FLOW...GOOD INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. THEREFORE...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE STATE. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  97  77  94 /  40  20  10  10  30
WACO, TX              93  72  96  75  95 /  40  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             90  71  93  72  92 /  40  30  20  20  40
DENTON, TX            90  72  96  74  93 /  40  20  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  97  74  92 /  40  20  10  10  30
DALLAS, TX            93  75  97  77  93 /  40  20  10  10  30
TERRELL, TX           92  72  97  74  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  73  95  75  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  70  97  72  94 /  40  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /