Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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105
FXUS64 KFWD 221207 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
707 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017


.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR ceiling potential through noon today. Low
potential for showers at eastern Metroplex TAF sites.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---MVFR stratus associated with moisture
on the western periphery of T.S. Cindy continues to slowly invade
westward this morning. The most likely TAF site to experience a
more continuous period of MVFR cigs below FL020 will be KDAL and
I`ll maintain the inherited prevailing cigs here given nearby
observations. Farther west (DFW, GKY, AFW and FTW), there is a
higher degree of uncertainty with regards to the MVFR potential.
For now, I`ll TEMPO MVFR cigs below FL020 through the morning with
a brief period of MVFR cigs around FL025 around noon at DFW and
GKY. Thereafter, VFR will return and continue through the
remainder of the period. Confidence is too low in MVFR stratus
reaching AFW and FTW this morning, so for now, I`ll keep these
sites completely VFR. If stratus starts to move towards the west a
bit more than currently thought, amendments to advertise MVFR at
these sites will become necessary.

Some hi-res guidance indicates a chance for some showers across
the central and eastern sections of D10 airspace this afternoon.
Confidence in this occurring is low given the expected track of
T.S. Cindy. Also, the airmass to the west of the main low center
should generally be characterized by sinking air which would tend
to limit precipitation chances this far west. With this in mind,
I`ll maintain precipitation-free TAFs, but will monitor radar
trends. The most likely TAF site to be impacted by any rain
bands/showers will be DAL and perhaps DFW. Showers east of the
main TAF sites may result in some minor disruptions for eastern
arrival and departure gates. Otherwise, northerly winds of around
10 knots will switch the the east and east-southeast late this
evening. Scattered to broken CU around FL040 will prevail through
the early evening hours.

For the Waco TAF site---MVFR stratus continues to graze Central
McLennan Co at this hour and it`s a little difficult to say just
how far west this activity will continue to advance. With that in
mind, I`ll carry a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs through a majority
of the morning. VFR should return thereafter with some afternoon
CU.

24-Bain

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall over extreme southwestern
Louisiana and is expected to move northward today near or just
east of the Texas/Louisiana line this morning and gradually turn
to the north northeast and then northeast during the next 24 hours
bringing it into northern Mississippi by daybreak Friday.
Given this track, the impacts across North Texas will be limited
as we will be on the western side of the system. A band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move into the eastern
most counties today. Have placed some low PoPs (20 percent) just
east of I-35/US75 with increasing chances up to 60 percent across
the far eastern counties. Rainfall totals from this event may
reach 1 inch in some areas east of a Centerville to Emory line but
the widespread heavy rain will be to the east of our forecast
area.

Clouds from the tropical storm can be seen on satellite extending
to west of the I-35 corridor this morning. After morning lows in
the mid 60s to lower 70s, temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
east to the mid 90s northwest. Winds will be north to northeast
at 5 to 15 mph.

Some low chances of showers will linger into tonight east of a
Bonham to Hearne line and it should be rain-free elsewhere as
the remnants of Cindy move farther away. Lows will be close to
seasonal normals with upper 60s to mid 70s expected.

With Cindy exiting and a shortwave moving through the trough
over the Northern and Central Plains, a cold front is expected to
move south and approach the Red River by mid Friday afternoon.
With subsidence in the wake of Cindy and some heating ahead of the
approaching front, temperatures should rise into the 90s across
North and Central Texas and some locations, especially across the
northwest and also over parts of Central Texas, may reach the
century mark. The NAM MOS guidance is even going with a high of 99
degrees at DFW and 100 for Dallas Love Field for Friday.

Maximum heat index values will approach 105 degrees across much of
the forecast area Friday afternoon but given the cool down
expected Saturday, we don`t anticipate that we will be issuing a
Heat Advisory. There will be some low chances of showers and
thunderstorms with the front Friday afternoon near the Red River.

The much-welcomed summer cold front is expected to move through
the rest of North and Central Texas Friday night. There will be a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide Friday night
and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
through Monday. High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s
Saturday through Monday which will be 6 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

There will be low chances of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along and west of a Bowie to Hearne line Tuesday and
along and east of a Sherman to Temple line Wednesday.
Temperatures will slowly rise but expect them to be near or below
seasonal normals through midweek.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  75  97  73  84 /  10   5  10  60  50
Waco                91  75  99  75  87 /  10   5   5  40  50
Paris               86  73  90  70  82 /  40  20  20  50  50
Denton              91  74  97  71  83 /   5   0  20  60  50
McKinney            89  74  95  71  83 /  20   5  20  70  50
Dallas              91  76  97  73  84 /  10   5  10  60  50
Terrell             88  74  95  73  83 /  30  20  10  60  50
Corsicana           88  75  95  73  84 /  40  20  10  50  50
Temple              91  75  98  75  89 /  10   5   5  30  50
Mineral Wells       92  71  99  70  84 /   0   0  10  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/58



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