Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281818 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR WITH SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z. CHALLENGES
ARRIVE AFTERWARD WITH REGARD TO TIMING CIGS/CONVECTION THROUGH
12Z. WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT AND LEAD SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WINDOW BETWEEN 03Z-09Z...WHEN THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A 30-40 KT LLJ. WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY DISCRETE...WE WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
VCTS IN THE FCST AT ALL NORTH TX AIRPORTS DURING THIS 6-HR WINDOW.
BEST WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO OK/AR BY 12Z AND
AFTER.

WE DO LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD 12Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. IN ADDITION...
WAA WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AND
LIMIT ARRIVALS TO AREA AIRPORTS WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
PREVAILING.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME... WITH A DRYLINE
MOVING CLOSE TO...OR INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND RACE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AIRPORTS BY NIGHTFALL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE ADDED A 24-30 HR
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 20Z FRIDAY TO INTRODUCE VCTS AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS NORTH TX FOR DFW AIRPORT.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58



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