Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190856
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS CONTAINED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY. THE HRRR...NATIONAL WRF AND SREF
MODELS SEEM TO BE THE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NOT
ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT OCCURS...WE
WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS
WELL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS
THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON
EVOLUTION OF FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE
THROUGH THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS MAY
HELP WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES
MODIFYING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS
COMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/




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