Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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403
FXUS64 KFWD 220859
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
259 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Good cold and dry air advection persists today following
yesterday`s cold front, which stretched along the Texas coast
early this morning. North winds of 10 to 15 MPH will continue
through much of the day before slackening this evening as the
surface ridge axis settles in across the region. Today`s cold air
advection will do its best to offset solar heating, keeping high
temperatures mainly in the 50s. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air will create ideal radiative cooling conditions tonight with
low temperatures in the 30s expected area-wide (the exception
being the heart of Dallas where the urban heat island effect could
keep low temps in the lower 40s). Patchy frost will be possible
in rural locations, and a few spots may even drop to 32 by sunrise
Thursday.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Thanksgiving Through Early Next Week/

The holiday will start off chilly with lows in the 30s with
light and variable winds, as a broad high pressure ridge continues
sliding through the area. By afternoon, the surface ridge will
move southeast away from the area with modest southeast winds
10-15 mph returning. Highs will range from the 60s east to the 70s
west. Southeast surface winds will stay Thanksgiving night into
Black Friday morning, as lee side pressure falls deepen off the
Central High Plains. Dry north flow aloft in between a deep upper
trough over the Eastern CONUS and a stout upper ridge over the
Western Conus will continue into Black Friday. Outside of the
occasional streak of mid-high cloudiness, any low level moisture
return will be minimal as the Western Gulf of Mexico remains
scoured by recent cold fronts. No precipitation expected through
the day Black Friday, as temperatures modify back into the 70s
areawide. Another cold front will appear on the horizon and enter
our far northwest counties just before sunrise Saturday morning.
This front will be dry like its last few predecessors with a
milder night in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The cold front will pass through the area during the day Saturday
under plentiful sunshine, as upper ridging continues to increase
across the region. Deeper low level cold advection through 850mb
looks to lag behind the surface front by 6-12 hours, with the
strongest thermal advection remaining north and east of the area
with a shortwave moving across the Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys. Highs will be slightly cooler, but still in the lower-
mid 70s for most areas. After a slightly colder morning between
35-45 degrees on Sunday, the stronger cold advection will be
realized during the day Sunday, despite a return to southeasterly
surface winds around 10 knots. Highs in the mid 60s to the lower
70s across Central Texas will be the rule Sunday afternoon, as
many return to the area from their holiday adventures. The strong
upper ridge will continue to keep the area rain-free Sunday night,
with breezy south winds 10-15 mph helping to hold lows Monday
morning up between 45 and 50 degrees.

Gusty southerly winds continue into the early half of next week,
as a strong upper trough develops across the Central Rockies on
Monday. With the Continental Shelf just off the Texas Coast still
well scoured from several surface cold frontal passages, any
moisture return will modified and not rich. Mild, breezy, and dry
conditions will persist, as the dampening upper ridge keeps a lid
on our sensible weather. It does appear the deep latitudinal
Rockies upper trough will draw a cold front into the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday, as it lifts across the Heartland and toward
the Mississippi Valley/Great lakes later next week. Have continued
the low chances for showers across the eastern half of the area
where slightly higher moisture content will be available.
Otherwise, instability appears pretty meager with richer low level
dew points remaining relegated closer to the Gulf Coast and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday will cool
into the 50s/60s south on Wednesday in wake of the cold front.

05/

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through 12z Thursday.
Skies will be mostly clear. North winds around 15 knots will
persist through 21z Wednesday with speeds decreasing to around 10
knots for the rest of the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Winds will become light and variable after 03z Thursday as high
pressure moves across the region. Winds will back around to the
southwest by 09z Thursday.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  39  69  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                59  33  69  41  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  34  63  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              55  34  68  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            56  35  66  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              56  40  68  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  35  65  42  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  35  67  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  34  69  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       54  34  72  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/30



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