Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 300450
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF ALL NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE VICINITY OF WACO CURRENTLY. KEY FORECAST PROBLEM
REMAINING OVERNIGHT CONCERNS THE RETURN OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
METROPLEX (AND LATER...WACO) TAF SITES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD MASS OVER WESTERN OK HAS NOW MADE IT INTO BOWIE...AND
EXPECT AT LEAST BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO BUILD INTO DFW-AREA SITES BY
10Z. BELIEVE THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SHUNT NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 14Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE DELAYED A BIT AT WACO...ARRIVING BY 11Z AND
DEPARTING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.  WACO WILL SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY 11Z.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
TORNADO WATCH 124 FOR ALL BUT JACK...PALO PINTO...EASTLAND...STEPHENS
AND YOUNG COUNTIES CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE STRONG WAA SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH OTHER DISCRETE CELLS
FIRING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RIPE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/SHEAR/AND INSTABILITY. ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH
MID EVENING. STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR IN STRUCTURE
OR OCCUR IN STORM CLUSTERS AS LARGE- SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD MORPH INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE
MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS EAST OF EAST OF I-35/35E TONIGHT. MESO-
LOW TYPE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...CONSIDERING MOIST SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 70S
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW LCL/S AND CLOUD BASES. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THREATS AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA TO HEARNE LINE WHERE 1-2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IT/S A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR ANY
FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCHES...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR HYDROLOGIC WARNINGS IN ADDITION TO ALL THE SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS. THE CURRENT MID LEVEL TROUGH NEGATIVELY ROTATING
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT
PROGRESSIVELY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TX WILL ALSO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND EXIT
OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BRIEFLY
MARK AND END TO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL MAINLY COOL HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS FRONT.

ANOTHER STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THINGS THIS TIME AROUND...AS A STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING
VERY HUMID AND MOIST AIR WITH COOL AND MOIST AIR REMAINS SETTLED
ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVEN BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND LIFT QUICKLY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL EVENT...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION...SO
A FEW ELEVATED STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HAIL AND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR SEMI-DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY GET TIME TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER
FROM THESE CURRENT ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AS WELL.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    64  80  58  78  58 /  50  10   5   5  40
WACO                65  82  58  80  58 /  60  10   5  10  50
PARIS               64  78  57  79  56 /  80  30   5   5  40
DENTON              59  77  54  76  55 /  40   5   5   5  40
MCKINNEY            61  79  56  77  56 /  60  10   5   5  40
DALLAS              65  81  59  79  58 /  50  10   5   5  40
TERRELL             65  81  57  79  58 /  70  20   5   5  40
CORSICANA           68  83  60  80  60 /  80  20   5  10  40
TEMPLE              65  84  60  81  60 /  60  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS       57  78  54  75  55 /  30   5   5  10  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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