Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 311746
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORNING MVFR STRATUS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT KDAL
FROM 14-17Z WHERE CHANCE IS BEST. OTHERWISE JUST SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT.

FOR WACO...CURRENT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. A REPEAT
INTRUSION OF MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
A FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON
LINE AS OF 1115 AM...HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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