Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290447
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 00Z
TAFS...SO LEFT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION APPENDED BELOW.

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT AGL OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON... HOWEVER AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DFW AREA DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON HOW DEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THAT IT IS UNLIKELY
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CERTAINLY WATCH THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND THE DFW AREA IF
MOISTURE RETURN IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

CAVANAUGH



&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN CENTRAL
TEXAS HAS DISSIPATED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUIET. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
FOR THE UPDATE...MADE MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TRENDS BUT DID MAKE A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEWPOINT TRENDS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SOME HIGHER MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FEATURE AND AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION...THIS MOISTURE WILL HEAD BACK
TO THE NORTH MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS OVER
THE REGION FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY
POP UP. ON TUESDAY THE BEST FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...POPS OF
30 PERCENT SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO
POPS TAPER DOWN TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW TEMPS JUST BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT SOME
STRAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF
POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES ONLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS PUSHING 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT...WITH HIGH TEMPS LEVELING OFF IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY.

BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY WANDER FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/WEAKNESS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY THE 4TH...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
RISK OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND CLOSES IT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS
THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. MEANWHILE
THE ECMWF IS VERY DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO...AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS MAY COOL JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  94  75  94  75 /   5  10  20  10   5
WACO, TX              72  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             69  92  73  92  73 /   5  10  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            70  94  74  94  74 /   5  10  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          70  94  74  93  74 /   5  10  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            74  95  77  95  77 /   5  10  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           71  94  74  93  74 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  73  92  74 /  10  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  91  72 /  10  20  20  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  95  71  94  70 /   5  10  20  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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