Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161922
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/
/This Weekend/

Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed across the region with an
increase in coverage expected through the remainder of the
afternoon as this activity slowly moves east. While the threat for
severe storms is low today, an isolated strong to marginally
severe storm can`t be ruled out across Central Texas, and the
primary threats would be hail and gusty winds. Further north,
lightning will be the main concern, but small hail will be
possible with any stronger storms. Additionally, rainfall rates
will peak mid to late afternoon, with PW values nearing or
potentially exceeding the climatological daily maximum. Therefore,
heavy rainfall will result in a low threat for flooding today,
especially across the urban DFW Metroplex as well as Central
Texas where moisture will be most abundant. The rain and cloud
cover will keep us cool through the remainder of the afternoon,
with high temperatures in the 50s across the west to mid 60s
across the east.

Most of the showers and storms will shift into Central Texas
tonight, but we could see a few showers linger across North Texas
overnight. The arrival of another shortwave trough will result in
the development of additional showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday. Most of this activity will be confined to Central Texas,
but we`ll carry some 20-30% PoPs for portions of North Texas
mainly Sunday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will eventually
arrive late Sunday afternoon and will begin to gradually shift
rain chances further south as drier air filters in behind the
front. Rainfall totals through late Sunday afternoon will average
between 1/4" and 2" with isolated areas receiving as high as
3-4". The best chance for these higher totals will be across
Southeast Texas.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were warranted for this long term forecast
update. Cool but relatively pleasant weather conditions will
return across North and Central Texas as we kick off the start of
the work week. Rain chances will have already exited from west to
east by Monday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the
region. It may be a bit chilly on the commute Tuesday morning with
wind chills in the low to upper 30s. This will be short-lived
however as a gradual warming trend begins and takes us through the
rest of the week. Highs will rise a couple of degrees each day,
all the way through the start of next weekend. Our next rain
chances will push through ahead of our next system through the
middle of the week where scattered showers and thunderstorms will
overtake the region once again. The severe weather threat appears
to remain low, but this will continue to be monitored as we move
through the upcoming week.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Next Week/

After multiple days of rainfall, the last week of astronomical
winter will begin with cool but benign conditions as weak mid
level ridging remains over West Texas. At the surface, broad high
pressure (of Canadian origin) will build southward through the
Central US reinforcing the seasonably cool airmass already in
place. With highs generally in the lower 60s, Monday will be the
coolest day of the week in most areas. Cold air advection in the
wake of Sunday`s reinforcing cold front and clear skies will push
lows into the mid 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Tuesday. The
surface high will reach the Central Gulf coast early Tuesday
resulting in the return of southerly surface winds. In addition to
gradual moisture recovery, temperatures will also trend warmer
through the end of the work week with highs back in the 70s
areawide on Thursday.

By late Tuesday, the upstream blocking regime will finally begin
to break down as the upper-level low over Arizona transitions into
an open wave. The remnants of the weakening low, eventually
becoming a modestly amplified wave, will lift through the Four
Corners region on Wednesday and then emerge into the Plains by
early Thursday. Induced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern
Rockies will lead to a slight uptick in wind speeds as the surface
gradient tightens. Instability and moisture should be sufficient
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday as the low and associated cold front push across the
state. At this time the risk for severe weather appears low. This
front will not carry the same cool down as we will see at the
beginning of the next week with temperatures forecast to be at or
slightly above seasonable values on Friday and into the weekend.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of North and
Central Texas, and we should continue to see a slight uptick in
coverage over the next few hours. A few of the stronger storms may
be capable of producing small hail, but severe weather is not
expected. Widespread IFR ceilings are being observed across the
region, but ceilings will continue to fluctuate between IFR/LIFR
across D10 through the remainder of the afternoon. A lull in
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected late this evening,
but VCTS has been introduced to the KACT TAF Sunday morning as our
next round of showers and storms develops.

Ceilings are expected to improve to low MVFR Sunday morning across
D10 but will remain IFR at KACT likely through the end of the
current TAF period. VFR may return to D10 as early as 19Z
tomorrow; however, this could change as some of the shower and
thunderstorm activity in Central Texas may reach the Metroplex
sometime tomorrow. Confidence in timing/location was too low to
include this in the TAFs at this time.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  67  47  62  43 /  50  20   5   0   0
Waco                59  67  49  62  41 /  80  30  10   0   0
Paris               55  67  42  58  35 /  50  10   0   0   0
Denton              52  66  42  61  38 /  40  20   5   0   0
McKinney            54  66  43  60  39 /  50  20   5   0   0
Dallas              57  67  47  62  42 /  50  20   5   0   0
Terrell             57  67  45  60  38 /  70  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           60  67  49  63  41 /  80  30   5   0   0
Temple              58  66  49  64  42 /  80  30  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       52  65  44  64  39 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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