Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250511 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TOMORROW MORNINGS COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 9 PM. IT/S WIND SHIFT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES 3-4 AM AND PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE
AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM REMAINS WET IN THE GFS SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS MUCH DRIER. IF THIS SYSTEM ACTS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST ONE...CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA...THEN THE WET SOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE GFS IS ALSO ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND BE REVISITED DAILY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.   79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75





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