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000
FXUS64 KFWD 031111
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF CIRRUS MOVED OVER THE METROPLEX SLOWING THE COOLING A
BIT...BUT IT HAS MOVED EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOG IS STARTING TO
FORM AT DFW AS I WRITE THIS. DENSE FOG REMAINS AS CLOSE AS
DENTON...LANCASTER...AND MESQUITE WHICH APPEARS SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW FOG REACHING
DFW AND DAL...BUT NOT THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SITES. 4KM WRF STOPS
FOG JUST EAST OF TAF SITES AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GROUND FOG.
WITH TWO HOURS TO SUNRISE...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR COOLING TO
CONTINUE AND FOG TO FORM...SO WILL KEEP THE IFR FORECASTS FOR DFW
& DAL. LIKE YESTERDAY...FOG LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY THIN AND SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET TOMORROW MORNING...NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VSBY ARE
EXPECTED. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/
STILL SOME MILD WEATHER TO ENJOY BEFORE THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES.

DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A BOWIE TO DALLAS TO
CANTON LINE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
THROUGH MID MORNING. THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH FROM
CORSICANA TO HEARNE EASTWARD...AND IF IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH WILL EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF IT WILL BE A NICE LATE FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 80 WEST.

ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUE CONCERNING
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...THEY HAVE COME CLOSER TO AGREEMENT THAN THEY
WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT BUT
IS SLOWER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS THEN SLOWS
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS CONSIDERABLY...BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
TO A PARIS TO EASTLAND LINE BY 00Z THURSDAY...AND TO A CANTON TO
LAMPASAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE
RED RIVER AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE CMC ALSO BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY BUT BY 12Z...IT PLACES THE FRONT NEAR A TYLER TO TEMPLE
LINE. THE NAM BRINGS THE FRONT DOWN TO A PARIS TO DFW TO HAMILTON
LINE BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST AND WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THUS HAVE WARMED WEDNESDAY/S TEMPERATURES 5 TO
OVER 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE. LIKEWISE HAVE RAISED THURSDAY MORNINGS
LOWS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
RAIN STARTING THURSDAY AND INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
THE FREEZING LINE MAY BE DOWN TO NEAR A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
KILLEEN LINE. HAVE JUST LEFT A MENTION OF RAIN AT WACO AND
KILLEEN FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO A TEMPORARY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE TROUGH STILL BACK TO OUR WEST...WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS
OVER THE REGION THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
HEAVY. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  55  77  43  45 /   0   5  10  20  60
WACO, TX              77  57  79  54  57 /   0   5  10  20  50
PARIS, TX             69  52  72  46  46 /   0   5   5  20  70
DENTON, TX            72  50  73  38  39 /   0   5   5  20  60
MCKINNEY, TX          71  51  75  41  41 /   0   5  10  20  60
DALLAS, TX            74  56  77  44  48 /   0   5  10  20  60
TERRELL, TX           71  57  76  48  48 /   0   5  10  20  60
CORSICANA, TX         74  61  77  53  54 /   0   5  10  20  60
TEMPLE, TX            78  57  79  56  58 /   0   5  10  20  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  52  77  39  40 /   0   5  10  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ092>095-
103>107-120>123-135.


&&

$$

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