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000
FXUS64 KFWD 031000 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SCOURING OUT THE REMAINING SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION SINCE LATE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE HAD SINCE TWO SATURDAYS AGO /FEBRUARY
21ST/. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO HAVE PLACED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY...MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...AND TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
TEMPLE-KILLEEN AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF BEFORE SUNSET
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE A CHALLENGE...AS THE NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE WARMER...SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR...THAN
THE GFS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND THUS PLACED
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
SLEET/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3S AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT DISAPPEARS BY 00Z THURSDAY
AT DFW BUT HANGS ON AT WACO PAST 06Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHUT OFF BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MODERATING
TREND BEGINS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
/06Z TAF/

NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER TO INDICATE VLIFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH
-DZ/FG PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST 15Z AT ALL AIRPORTS. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AWAY INTO E TX/UPPER TX
GULF COAST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY HELPING A WEAK WARM FRONT SURGE
NORTH. THE WEAK WAA AND OVERRUNNING OVER THE TOP OF COLD AND MOIST
SOILS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL ALMOST MIDDAY
TUESDAY OR AFTER...AT WHICH TIME INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15
KTS AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER HELP CIGS SLOWLY RISE INTO
IFR...THEN BRIEFLY INTO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AREN`T VERY HIGH...THOUGH
MIXING FROM APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TUES AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SETTLING SOME TUESDAY
EVENING...HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS BACK IFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH SUCH EMPHASIS ON THE FIRST 12-18 HRS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OUT OF THE 24-30 HR DFW
TAF FOR NOW...BUT NEXT FEW TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD...CHALLENGES
ON A TURNOVER TO WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT MORE CHALLENGES TO AVIATORS WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

05


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  39  40  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
WACO, TX              60  52  54  29  40 /  30  50  90  70  20
PARIS, TX             62  41  41  19  41 /  50  90  90  60  10
DENTON, TX            63  36  37  21  40 /  40  70  90  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  37  39  24  41 /  50  70  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            62  40  41  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           62  42  44  26  41 /  50  70  90  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  48  54  29  39 /  40  60  90  70  20
TEMPLE, TX            60  55  57  28  39 /  30  40  80  70  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  39  39  21  40 /  30  70  80  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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