Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 192025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DUNN



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE (MCV) WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SET UP BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING (BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z). WILL KEEP
WACO DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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