Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
854 FXUS64 KFWD 110541 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-105. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday/ A strong shortwave trough dropping southeast through the Plains will force a cold front south through Oklahoma Friday night and Saturday. Another seasonably hot and humid day can be expected Friday out ahead of the front, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices from the mid 90s to around 105. A broken line of convection will likely push south through Oklahoma along or ahead of the front Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms may weaken in the morning as a modest low level jet mixes out, but should redevelop late morning into Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Activity would be focused along outflow left over from the collapsing storms, with said redevelopment occurring near the Red River and/or Highway 380 corridor. In addition, an active seabreeze appears likely Saturday afternoon, resulting in a second area of scattered showers and storms across Central Texas. Those two areas will hence have the highest POPs, but will still include at least a slight chance of storms across the rest of the region in the event that the seabreeze pushes farther north or outflow farther south. Severe weather is not likely, but a few of the stronger storms will be capable of 50 MPH wind gusts, heavy rain, and localized flooding. All activity will start weakening after sunset and should dissipate around midnight. 30 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The main shortwave trough responsible for Saturday`s convection will continue its journey southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. However, a weak upper low, which is progged to develop near the base of the trough, will be left behind and become quasi-stationary somewhere across North Texas on Sunday. Additional rounds of scattered showers and storms will be the result for Sunday, and possibly into Monday. The highest POPs will be on Sunday when the low is parked overhead, with slightly lower POPs on Monday as the low starts to lift northeast of the region. Weak flow aloft will preclude a severe weather threat both Sunday and Monday, but heavy rain and localized flooding will again be a possibility just about anywhere due to the expectation of slow storm motions. The low will accelerate northeast into the Midwest Monday night and Tuesday, shutting off rain chances for the most part as a mid level ridge builds in from the east in its wake. There may still be isolated thunderstorms each afternoon, but increasing subsidence should keep most locations seasonably hot and rain free mid to late next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ South winds of 10-15 kt will increase to 15-25 kt by midday Friday as the surface pressure gradient narrows. Some 30+ kt gusts cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon. Overnight stratus may briefly impact KACT around daybreak, but at this time the expectation is that it will remain south and east of the Metroplex. A stronger northward stratus surge will occur Friday night into Saturday morning, which will need to be addressed in future TAFs. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 93 75 90 75 / 5 30 40 40 20 Waco 75 91 74 91 74 / 0 30 20 40 10 Paris 75 93 73 91 73 / 5 30 30 40 20 Denton 76 93 73 89 73 / 5 30 40 50 20 McKinney 76 93 75 90 75 / 5 30 40 50 20 Dallas 76 94 76 92 76 / 5 30 30 40 20 Terrell 75 93 74 92 74 / 5 30 20 40 10 Corsicana 76 94 76 93 75 / 5 30 20 30 10 Temple 74 91 74 91 73 / 5 30 20 40 10 Mineral Wells 74 92 73 88 72 / 0 30 50 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$