Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 272317 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF
14G24KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AROUND 14KT WEDNESDAY EVENING. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WAS
ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD
FOLLOW SUITE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OF AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAINLY ALONG THE
U.S. 79 CORRIDOR...BUT THINKING IS THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HELP MOST
AREAS STAY AROUND 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY YIELDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL HELP TO INDUCE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S REGION-WIDE.
WE MAY EVEN BE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF A FEW DAYTIME HIGH
RECORDS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MECHANICAL MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD INTO
THURSDAY AM.

BY THURSDAY...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NW ZONES BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND COLDER AIR /AT LEAST COMPARATIVE TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS/. BREEZY NORTH WINDS...COURTESY OF SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 30
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW ZONES. FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES MAY STILL WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE LOW 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL NE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE TOWARDS
THE E-SE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. HAVE TAPERED POPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY
AS THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG THE 290-295K THETA SURFACES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.   15-BAIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SLICES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WAS
ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD
FOLLOW SUITE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OF AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAINLY ALONG THE
U.S. 79 CORRIDOR...BUT THINKING IS THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HELP MOST
AREAS STAY AROUND 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY YIELDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL HELP TO INDUCE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S REGION-WIDE.
WE MAY EVEN BE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF A FEW DAYTIME HIGH
RECORDS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MECHANICAL MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD INTO
THURSDAY AM.

BY THURSDAY...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NW ZONES BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND COLDER AIR /AT LEAST COMPARATIVE TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS/. BREEZY NORTH WINDS...COURTESY OF SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 30
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW ZONES. FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES MAY STILL WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE LOW 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL NE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE TOWARDS
THE E-SE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. HAVE TAPERED POPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY
AS THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG THE 290-295K THETA SURFACES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.    15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  78  53  63  39 /   0   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              44  78  53  66  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  75  51  61  36 /   0   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            43  78  49  62  38 /   0   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          42  77  51  61  37 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            49  78  54  63  40 /   0   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  76  53  64  39 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  77  53  67  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            45  78  51  68  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  80  48  63  38 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





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