Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282338
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms have developed in a region of hot and unstable air
roughly west of a KABI-KSAT line. We will need to keep an eye on
RADAR trends this evening as storms approach from the west, but at
this time the feeling is that activity should diminish before
reaching North & Central TX TAF locations. There is some potential
for upscale growth into an MCS over the TX Hill Country, which
might skirt the Waco area to the south tonight, so we will
maintain the VCSH at KACT around 29/06Z.

Otherwise, a return of MVFR cigs is expected at or shortly after
midnight local tonight, with conditions improving late Sunday
morning. A slightly better potential for direct impact from
thunderstorms will exist Sunday evening as a weak upper level
disturbance moves east across the state.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Abundant low level moisture will remain in place across the entire
region until a cold front arrives around the middle of next week.
The combination of this moisture coupled with energy associated
with several upper level impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft
will result in scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms nearly every day through the middle of next week.

In the short term we expect a few storms to develop over Central
Texas and the Concho Valley late this afternoon/early this evening
where the cap is the weakest and instability is quite high. There
is no good focus for storms, so we expect coverage to be limited.
However, if storms do develop, additional convection is possible
on any outflows. Hail and lightning will be the primary threats,
especially south of Interstate 20 and west of Interstate 35 where
CAPE is in excess of 4000 J/KG.

Sunday morning will be cloudy but rain-free. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave
approaches from the west. It appears that storms will be most
numerous across the Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening.
These storms will organize into a complex that will move
east/southeast across the region overnight Sunday through Monday
morning. There is a very good chance that storms could end in
most locations by midday Monday but we will still carry low pops
through Monday night due to timing uncertainties. Storms Sunday
through Monday will have the potential to become strong to severe
as well as to produce locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances will increase again on Tuesday/Tuesday night
as a southern branch upper low approaches from the Desert
Southwest. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely Wednesday when a
stronger upper low moves across the Northern Plains and sends a
strong cold front southward through the Central and Southern
Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind
the cold front and linger across the area through the end of the
week.

Dry and cool air at the surface and a building ridge aloft will
bring mostly clear and cooler conditions next weekend with lows
in the 50s and lower 60s Friday and Saturday and highs mainly in
the 70s and lower 80s.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  86  69  86  70 /  20  20  40  50  20
Waco                71  86  68  85  69 /  30  30  30  40  20
Paris               68  85  67  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
Denton              69  85  67  85  68 /  20  20  50  50  20
McKinney            69  85  67  84  69 /  20  20  40  50  20
Dallas              72  87  70  86  71 /  20  20  40  50  20
Terrell             70  86  68  86  69 /  10  20  30  40  20
Corsicana           71  86  69  85  69 /  20  30  30  40  20
Temple              71  85  69  83  69 /  30  30  30  40  20
Mineral Wells       69  85  66  84  68 /  20  30  50  50  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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