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419
FXUS64 KFWD 260005 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

DFW Airports: VFR conditions are expected through most of the
night. Low level moisture is expected to start slowly returning
north tonight with better moisture return mainly west of I-35.
This will result in some MVFR cigs to the west of the TAF airports
and potentially creeping into the DFW Metroplex after 12Z. At
this time, it appears that KAFW and KFTW have the better chances
of being impacted by MVFR cigs with diminishing chances to the
east, so left the TEMPO group for BKN conditions out of KDAL. Any
MVFR cigs in the Metroplex are expected to be between 2-3 kft.

A complex of thunderstorms is already taking shape across New
Mexico, and this complex is expected to move southeast. However,
the wind field ahead of this system overnight will be weak and
unfavorable for it to track as far as North and Central Texas.
Most model guidance diminishes the system before it reaches a
Comanche to Bowie line. There`s a small chance this system could
produce a boundary that forces a few showers during the Monday
morning hours, but better chances for showers and storms exist in
the afternoon hours as a disturbance moves into the area. Coverage
should be no more than isolated to scattered but have decided to
include a VCTS mention starting at 17Z due to decent agreement
between the weather models.

Waco Airport: As mentioned in the paragraph above, better chances
for showers and storms affecting Waco are also in the Monday
afternoon hours and have included a VCTS starting at 17Z. Some
models indicate a few showers may occur this evening around 03Z,
but have opted not to mention any convection in the TAF this
evening. MVFR cigs are likely to affect KACT Monday morning. The
onset time of MVFR cigs for KACT is challenging. For now,
forecasted the arrival time around 12Z but will monitor trends
overnight as the arrival time could be as early as 09-10Z. A
short period of cig bases between 1-2 kft is possible between
12-16Z.

JLDunn

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/
/Tonight through Monday Night/

Spotty showers, with only an occasional CG strike, are ongoing
across portions of our Central Texas Counties this afternoon within
an axis of maximized low-level theta-e air. While convective
inhibition is effectively nil, moist adiabatic lapse rates atop the
soupy sub-850 mb air are only facilitating MLCAPE values either side
of 1000 J/kg across the southern half of our CWA. This, combined
with little large-scale forcing for ascent means scattered showers
and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be the norm through the
early evening hours across Central Texas. We should see activity
dwindle gradually with the loss of daytime heating tonight, but
we`ll maintain low PoPs across the south overnight within the moist
axis. There is also a potential for some patchy visibility
reductions to accompany surging low stratus late tonight across our
southern and western-most counties, but confidence in this was too
low to introduce a mention into the worded forecast at this time.

Vigorous convection is expected to blossom this afternoon/evening
across the high terrain of New Mexico, and should organize into an
(initially) eastward-advancing MCS. As upscale growth and cold pool
amalgamation occur, this system should then begin to favor a
southeasterly, or even southerly direction into the burgeoning low-
level jet. In addition, with such weak sub-3km flow present across
our region, it appears unlikely we`d see impacts from this overnight
system outside of some additional convective anvil blow off. This
system`s associated mid-level vorticity maximum may, however,
provide the impetus to spark off isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the southwestern 2/3rds of the region on Monday afternoon.
Outside of some brief gusty winds, strong or severe storms are not
anticipated at this time. Convective chances will then wane Monday
evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Carlaw


&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

Northwest flow aloft will begin to dampen and shift east-northeast
of the area by Wednesday, as the Southwest CONUS upper high
begins to build eastward across West Texas. A shortwave over
Central Texas Tuesday will sink very slowly south, but be enough
to drum up subtle lift with increasing Gulf moisture from
southeast winds 10-15 mph. Isolated showers and storms along the
I-20 corridor will be more scattered in coverage across our
Central Texas counties where better lift and moisture will reside.
Both surface-based instability and lapse rates aloft on the order
of 6-6.5 deg C/km may be enough for a strong storm or two south
of I-20, but weak flow aloft and mid level shear will keep storm
organization subdued for any severe weather threat. By Wednesday,
lee- cyclogenesis deepens over Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas and
will result in increasing south breezes and richer low level
moisture. However, increased ridging aloft will confine better
column moisture over South-Central and Southeast Texas. I will
carry slight chances across our far southeast counties where a
potential seabreeze could result in a isolated convection late in
the day. Otherwise, increasing subsidence will result in highs
warming into the lower-mid 90s. Heat index values will start to
approach 100 degrees as well.

For Thursday and Friday, the main center of the upper high will
remain confined to West Texas and across Northern Mexico with a
weakness (possibly from an upper level TUTT feature over the
Western Gulf of Mexico) across much of our area. The richer column
moisture will remain mostly confined to Southeast Texas into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley each day. That said, diurnal
seabreeze activity could reach our far southeastern counties each
afternoon.

The upper ridge will continue to expand across the area moving
into next weekend, making the first weekend of July, well, feel
like early July with plenty of heat and humidity with continued
strong southerly breezes. The main storm track should remain well
north through east of our area with the polar jet stream remaining
well north of the area. We should remain capped enough that any
nocturnal MCS intrusion across the Red River would likely weaken
and die off pretty quickly after sunrise, providing the northern
counties with a little more cloud cover. Enjoy any rain chances
this next week, as they look to dwindle quite a bit just in time
for outdoor July 4th celebrations.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  88  73  90  74 /  10  20  10  20   5
Waco                71  88  70  89  73 /  30  40  20  40  10
Paris               65  86  68  88  71 /   5  10   5  10   0
Denton              68  87  69  90  73 /  10  20  10  20   5
McKinney            67  87  69  89  72 /   5  10  10  20   5
Dallas              73  88  73  90  74 /  10  20  10  20   5
Terrell             69  87  70  90  72 /  10  20  10  20   5
Corsicana           69  88  70  89  73 /  20  30  10  30   5
Temple              70  88  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  40  10
Mineral Wells       69  86  68  88  71 /  10  30  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/30