Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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665
FXUS64 KFWD 130855
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION....HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAYS...PUTTING TEMPS IN THE SEASONALLY NORMAL RANGE. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER...AROUND 50 DEGREES...DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1112 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS AS CHALLENGES CONTINUE REGARDING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
OVER S-CENTRAL TX. SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER NE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD VFR CONDS AND NE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OT THE WEST...WIND DIRECTION AT ALL
AIRPORTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH LOW VFR CIGS
STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  51  65  49  66 /   0   5  20  40  30
WACO, TX              67  51  70  49  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             55  41  54  44  62 /   0   5  20  50  40
DENTON, TX            61  49  65  45  65 /   0   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          59  49  63  47  64 /   0   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  51  67  50  66 /   0   5  20  50  30
TERRELL, TX           61  49  64  49  65 /   0   5  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         64  51  69  52  68 /   0   5  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            67  51  70  50  71 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  50  69  45  67 /   0   5  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/78



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