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000
FXUS64 KFWD 151130 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR IFR...MVFR AND TSRA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROBLEMS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE FORECAST. THESE PROBLEMS INCLUDE IFR/MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHRA
POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA /LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL/ MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
/20-01Z/ AND SOME -RA AND SHRA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TERMINALS AROUND
MIDNIGHT /05-06Z/ AND ACROSS KACT AN HOUR OR TWO LATER /07Z/.
WINDS WILL GO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING /13-15Z/ THAT SPEEDS BECOME 35020G30KT.

METROPLEX RAINFALL OF AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WHILE KACT MAY ONLY SEE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH.   75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
WEST TEXAS AFTER DAYBREAK AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN TO THE REGION. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT...AS IS OFTENTIMES THE
CASE WITH THESE STRONG SPRINGTIME SYSTEMS...SEVERE WEATHER ALSO
ACCOMPANIES THEM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE I-20. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE. THUS WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND THEN EAST INTO TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST
MODEL. IT GENERATES SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF 1 INCH OR MORE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES
NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR TO JUST
WEST OF WAXAHACHIE TO TEMPLE. AMAZINGLY IT HAS A 3 INCH PLUS SNOW
ISOPLETH FROM CISCO TO WEATHERFORD TO CLIFTON TO LAMPASAS WITH A
6 INCH BULLS EYE OVER ERATH AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. NONE
OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ANYTHING LIKE THE
NAM AS FAR AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED. THE 15/03Z SREF
PLUMES DID SHOW A FEW MEMBERS OTHER THAN THE NAM WITH GREATER
THAN 1 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE THAT IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF IT DOES
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
GRASS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS WITH VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN A POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WE COULD END UP WITH GREATER ACCUMULATIONS THAN WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM
UP EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  51  52  33  61 / 100  80  40  10   5
WACO, TX              70  52  56  34  63 /  70  60  40  20   5
PARIS, TX             69  52  52  30  58 /  90  90  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            70  47  50  33  62 / 100  80  40  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          70  48  51  34  60 / 100  80  30  10   5
DALLAS, TX            71  50  52  32  61 / 100  80  40  10   5
TERRELL, TX           69  51  54  33  59 /  90  80  30  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  52  56  34  61 /  70  80  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  51  56  36  65 /  60  60  40  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  45  48  32  66 /  90  60  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/