Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 261002
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

/NOTE: DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS AS A RESULT OF A BUSY AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ABBREVIATED AND A FULL DISCUSSION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISSUED BY 430 AM/

THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT WEATHER ELEMENTS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7-8 DAYS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND/OR CENTRAL TEXAS. OF NOTE...ALL MENTION
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN REMOVED AND THE
REASONING FOR THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS KANSAS AND
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WE KEEP A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 1/10TH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED. THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-50
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED
CAPE MAY BE PRESENT TONIGHT SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL END. HOWEVER...AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY FOR
THIS REASON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
AND/OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL
PLACES OCCURING IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ABBREVIATED EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS ARRIVAL TIME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE REGION
AND PREVIOUSLY WE WERE MONITORING A CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THUS A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AS THE ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVES WE REMOVED THE POPS AND THE MENTION FOR WINTER PRECIP
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY STARTS MOVING
EAST...BUT BY THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO MODIFY AND WARM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND JUST A
COLD RAIN /ALL LIQUID/ IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/
CONCERNS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS.

REGIONAL 88D VAD WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY SHOWING A STRONG LLJ
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. HIGH END
STRATUS HAVE FORMED AROUND KSAT AND AREAS SOUTHWARD AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE KACT/KCRS AREA. THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER INTO THE 1-2 KFT
RANGE AFTER 06Z. ONCE LOW-END MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED...WE EXPECT
THEM TO BE AROUND FOR SOME TIME. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS /OVC006/ AND 5SM BR 13-16Z FOR BOTH KACT AND
ACROSS THE METROPLEX. THE CIGS MAY LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN RETURNING TO OVC015 FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD FALL FURTHER LATE FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AT
4SM BR BKN007 THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY 10-17KTS TONIGHT AND 8-15 KTS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.

THE KDFW EXTENDED NOW INCLUDES A COLD FRONT ARRIVING 08-09Z...LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS OF 32016KT AND MVFR CIGS /OVC012/ SHOULD PREVAIL
AFTERWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  45  46  32  50 /  20  30  20  10  10
WACO, TX              66  49  49  33  53 /  10  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             60  50  50  32  49 /  20  50  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            63  41  45  29  50 /  10  30  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  46  46  31  50 /  20  40  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            64  47  47  33  51 /  20  40  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           62  52  52  33  50 /  20  50  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  54  54  35  51 /  20  50  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  52  52  34  53 /  10  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  38  43  28  51 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




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