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170
FXUS64 KFWD 010301 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1001 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Our period of quiescent weather will continue unabated the next
few days with ridging in place along with a very dry low-level
airmass. The inherited forecast looks to be in good shape, but
made some minor cosmetic changes mainly to account for slightly
higher dewpoints across our southeast and northwest counties and
to increase (high) cloud cover a smidge.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 614 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 06z Sunday at all
of the TAF sites. Light mostly north to northeast winds are
expected through tonight and winds will become light southerly at
4 to 6 knots by 15z Saturday as a surface ridge moves off to the
east.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/
The nice weather will continue through the weekend and into early
next week with only a slight warmup through that time and
precipitation chances near zero. A beautiful day is in progress
across North Texas this afternoon with temperatures generally in
the mid to upper 70s...about 5-7 degrees below normal. Light winds
and clear skies will continue into tonight.

North Texas is currently under ridging aloft with weak northerly
flow above the surface. This will keep dry conditions in place
with little moisture return expected through the weekend. A weak
disturbance will slide through the southern Plains late tomorrow
but a lack of moisture should result in no more than some passing
high clouds. Temperatures will warm a few degrees into the lower
80s areawide.

On Sunday...upper ridging will persist across the Southern Plains
with temperatures continuing to warm into the mid 80s. Farther
west...a large upper trough will be moving into the western U.S.
By late in the day as height falls begin to overspread the Central
Plains a surface low will deepen over eastern Colorado. This will
help increase southerly winds across North Texas and begin
northward low level moisture transport into the region.

Model consensus tracks this strong upper trough into the Northern
Plains during the day on Tuesday. This will take the strongest
forcing for ascent with it...however broad troughing will extend
well south into the four-corners region of the U.S. By Tuesday
afternoon a dryline will sharpen and will likely be located
somewhere across the eastern half of the Panhandle into west-
central Texas. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive with a
secondary shortwave within the overall large trough moving into
Texas late Tuesday afternoon...accompanied by a favorable position
of a 90kt upper jet. The GFS also shows this feature but to a
weaker degree. Given the moisture return and likelihood that some
forcing for ascent will be present over the dryline...there should
be at least scattered thunderstorms that develop during this time.
Best chances will be to the northwest of our CWA but will have
some 20 PoPs across our far northwest into the evening hours.

Eastward progression of the front/dryline will be slow given the
position and movement of the upper trough. It appears that another
strong shortwave will swing through the Southern Plains on
Wednesday or Wed night. This may actually be when we have the best
chances for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas and it
should finally push the front through the area. There are some
timing differences right now and this will continue to be refined.
Otherwise...there is also at least some low chance for severe
weather during this time...however if the bulk of the convection
occurs Wednesday night...this threat would be lower. We will
continue to monitor this potential.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  81  63  83  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                53  81  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               55  80  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              52  80  57  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            53  79  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              61  82  61  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             55  80  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  81  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              53  81  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       53  80  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/90