Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260048 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
748 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Return of MVFR ceilings tonight into Thursday morning
with convective activity possible mid/late Thursday morning into
the afternoon.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR should prevail through the
early evening hours before stratus at FL025 invades from the
south with continued low level moisture transport. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lower down to the FL015-FL020 around 08 UTC
on Thursday. With the tight low level pressure gradient, it
appears that enough nocturnal mixing will preclude a widespread
IFR stratus threat. Precipitation is expected to overspread
Metroplex TAF sites from the south/southwest during the late
morning hours on Thursday as an upper trough spreads lift across
the area. Showers may help ceilings become VFR during this time.
Right now, the better risk for TS appears to be later in the day
and have inserted VCTS into the TAFs around 2100 UTC. It`s likely
that the timing of TS will be refined in later TAFs, especially
if convection is a bit more vigorous earlier in the day than
currently thought.

DFW Extended---The threat for TS may continue after 00 UTC Friday,
but for simplicity, have opted to keep the window in the early
afternoon hours on Thursday.

For the Waco TAF site---Stratus below FL030 currently lurks across
the Hill Country and should spread northward towards the Waco TAF
site over the next several hours. Similar to the Metroplex TAF
sites...the breezy winds should preclude a threat for IFR
ceilings. There may be some periods of DZ/BR which may result in
some brief reductions in visibility through the overnight hours.
Lift from an approaching upper trough should arrive at the Waco
TAF site just after sunrise, resulting in scattered convection and
a lifting of the stratus deck. I think that this initial batch of
lift will be just enough to result in some showers and I have
included a mention of VCSH around 15 UTC. Through the afternoon
hours---more vigorous lift should result in more robust convection
across the area which will likely mean the potential for TS.
Again, if convection is stronger earlier in the day that currently
thought, inclusion of TS may be warranted in the morning hours for
the Waco TAF site.

Bain

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
After a relatively quiet stretch, an active and wet weather
pattern is in store for North Central Texas to close out the week
and into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend.

Currently, the dryline has mixed east to a roughly Wichita Falls
to Abilene line early this afternoon based on surface observations.
Temperatures in this region have warmed into the upper 80s to near
90 F. Visible satellite loops show limited vertical growth in the
cumulus field in this region indicating that convective initiation
is not immediately likely. That being said, any storms that do
develop into this environment--characterized by MLCAPE values in
excess of 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear values near 30-40 kts--
would have the potential to become severe very quickly posing
mainly a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Convection presently developing across the high terrain of Mexico
is expected to congeal into a cluster and track across the Hill
Country later this evening. Latest indications are that this
convection may impact southern parts of our CWA. It appears that
this activity should stay south of the metroplex tonight, and thus
have confined the highest PoPs (40%) to south of a roughly
Stephenville to Coriscana line.

Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, a lead shortwave--which
has been picked up for several days now by most NWP--is expected
to translate into southeastern Texas. Based on the consistency
seen in the past few runs of the ECMWF, have followed its timing
and show precip chances increasing during the 12-18Z time frame
tomorrow, which also agrees well with this morning`s run of the
Texas Tech WRF. This activity should be elevated and will likely
not pose much of a severe weather risk. At this time, think the
severe weather threat tomorrow will be tempered somewhat by 1)
relatively weak wind fields and 2) reduced lapse rates/instability
owing to morning showers/storms. One potential caveat in this
forecast: if this precipitation does not materialize during the
morning hours and we are able warm more than currently
anticipated, any convection that fires in the vicinity of the cold
front/dryline to the west would pose a greater severe weather
risk than presently advertised.

Profiles will moisten further Thursday night into Friday as the
brunt of a potent upper low approaches the region. It is during
this time frame that we are most concerned about a heavy rain and
flash flood threat, as PWAT values increase to around +2SD above
normal, combined with deep warm cloud layers promoting efficient
rain processes. However, because of uncertainties regarding the
position of a potential MCS near the Gulf of Mexico reducing the
poleward transport of moisture into the region, we have opted to
hold off on the issuance of a flash flood watch at this time. That
said, the risk for heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 4 inches
and locally higher (greatest amounts south and east of the
metroplex) exists late Thursday night and into Friday. Severe
weather will also be a possibility on Friday as wind profiles
increase ahead of the upper level low. There may be a conditional
tornado potential late Thursday night and into Friday as well,
given the deep tropical airmass in place and 0-1 km shear values
increasing into the 25 to 30 kt range.

A brief respite from the widespread showers and storms should then
occur on Saturday as the main area of ascent moves north and east
of the area. However, expect the weather to remain unsettled as
broad troughing takes hold over the Western CONUS.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  83  73  81  70 /  20  60  60  70  40
Waco                75  81  73  81  71 /  40  60  60  70  40
Paris               73  79  70  76  68 /  20  60  60  80  70
Denton              74  81  71  80  68 /  20  60  60  70  40
McKinney            74  81  72  79  69 /  20  60  60  70  50
Dallas              75  83  73  81  71 /  20  60  60  70  40
Terrell             74  82  73  79  70 /  20  60  50  80  60
Corsicana           75  80  73  79  71 /  30  70  60  80  50
Temple              75  80  72  81  71 /  40  60  60  70  40
Mineral Wells       74  81  71  84  67 /  30  50  70  60  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

15/78



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