Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 240823
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A breezy and warm morning will begin the day today, while stratus
continues developing across the Hill Country and Central Texas
with a 30-40 kt LLJ over the area. Any stratus will likely be
confined to areas south of I-20 this morning, with mostly sunny
conditions across the area by this afternoon. Scattered showers
and storms across West Texas/Oklahoma will continue to remain west
of the western counties, as the upper high keeps our area very
warm and dry with highs in the lower to middle 90s.

The aformentioned western portion of the subtropical upper high
will maintain dry and breezy conditions through tonight as lows
remain seasonably warm and in the 70s. For Thursday, the upper
high will shift slightly eastward and weaken over North and
Central Texas. A a shortwave is forecast to rotate north-northwest
along the western periphery of the upper high and over east Texas
later on Thursday, bringing low convective chances back across
areas east of I-35/35E with highs continuing in the lower-middle
90s. Though no severe weather is expected, a strong storm or two
with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will be possible across
our eastern counties til sunset Thursday evening.

The subtropical upper high will continue to shift east of Texas as
a deepening upper trough over the Rockies approaches the high
plains for the end of the week. Though this longwave trough won`t
have a direct impact on our counties, slow-moving tropical shortwave
energy transversing the western edge of the upper high will. Rain
chances are expected to increase across much of the area diurnally,
especially along and east of I-35 where localized heavier rains
will be possible as PWAT values rise, or in excess of 2 inches. A
brief strong storm with gusty winds cannot be ruled out with
strong late August heating each afternoon/evening, but for the
most part thunderstorms will be of the garden variety.

With the core of the upper high being centered across the Mid-
Atlantic region and southeast states late this weekend into next
week, we`ll continue to see subtle energy within the sub-tropical
easterlies moving west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico and
into Texas. This set up will help maintain low diurnal convective
chances across the CWA each day in the extended forecast.

Something of interest for tropical weather enthusiasts will be the
increase in activity expected the end of August into early
September. Tropical systems named Gaston and what will likely
become Hermine soon will likely affect areas anywhere from the
central Gulf coast to the southeast Atlantic coast the next 10
days. Models currently diverge on track solutions. Regardless, at
this time it appears Texas will remain west of any tropical system
impacts. Seeing that Atlantic Basin become active is likely a
tell-tale sign that the large-scale ENSO is transitioning to a
neutral or even weak La Nina signature. Otherwise, temperatures
next week will remain slightly below climatological normals from
this weekend into next week.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/
/06Z TAFs/

No significant changes were made from the previous TAF. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the period at the DFW
airports, but KACT will experience a few hours of MVFR cigs
Wednesday morning. Stratus clouds causing MVFR cigs between 1-2
kft will affect KACT between 12-16Z. Will prevail BKN cigs but
most of the stratus may remain outside the airport with just
SCT015 observed at KACT. Some of the stratus may creep into the
DFW area after sunrise, but is not expected to result in BKN
conditions at this time. South and southeast winds between 5-11
kts overnight will increase to 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon with
gusts around 20 kts. Wind speeds will decrease again near sunset.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  75  94  76  91 /   5   0  10   5  50
Waco                94  73  93  74  91 /   5   0  10   5  40
Paris               92  72  92  74  88 /   5   5  20  10  60
Denton              94  73  94  73  90 /   5   0   5   5  50
McKinney            93  71  93  74  90 /   5   5  10   5  60
Dallas              95  76  94  76  91 /   5   0  10   5  60
Terrell             93  74  93  75  89 /   5   5  20  10  60
Corsicana           92  73  92  75  89 /   5   5  20  10  50
Temple              93  71  92  72  91 /   5   5  10   5  30
Mineral Wells       94  71  93  72  90 /   5   0   5   5  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

/05


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