Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170435
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
50KT LLVL JET BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING IFR AT WACO NEAR SUNRISE. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT METROPLEX NEAR SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD
BOUNCE QUICKLY BACK TO MVFR. CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE 020 AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BY THAT TIME PRECLUDES
CEILINGS DISSIPATING AND THEY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH MVFR ALL
DAY. WEAK SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN MODEST
AREA OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION. CIGS DROP
BACK BELOW O20 THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL HANG ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET AND DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH WITHIN THE 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 5-10 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED...WHICH WILL IN
TURN PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
BROAD BUSH 20 POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY EASE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY MONDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND DOMINATE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
HINT AT A LARGER-SCALE AND STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY
BRING SOME MORE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  69  57  76  59 /   5  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              52  71  54  77  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             44  68  51  74  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  66  52  73  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          48  68  53  74  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  70  57  76  58 /   5  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  69  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  71  55  75  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            52  73  55  76  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  67  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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