Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200953
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO
CANTON LINE FOR TODAY. BESIDES THE LOW CLOUDS....SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY /AS OF 3 AM/ SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BUT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST EARLY
SUNDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY MORNING...30S AREA WIDE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...AND THEN MOSTLY 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. NORMAL
LOWS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AND NORMAL HIGHS
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING ARRIVAL OF CEILINGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS.

DESPITE DISORGANIZED WINDS AT THE GROUND...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20-30KTS ARE WITHIN 1500FT OF THE SURFACE. THOUGH MORE MODEST
TONIGHT...THIS LLJ WILL USHER IN THE LONG-AWAITED RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP A STRATUS INTRUSION
THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REACH WACO AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS INVADING THE
METROPLEX DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY
FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING VISIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE CAP SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  57  71  60  66 /   5  30  40  60 100
WACO, TX              68  58  72  61  68 /  20  30  40  40 100
PARIS, TX             65  53  65  55  63 /  10  40  50  60  80
DENTON, TX            67  55  70  59  65 /   5  20  30  70 100
MCKINNEY, TX          67  55  68  58  64 /   5  30  40  60 100
DALLAS, TX            69  58  70  59  66 /   5  30  40  60 100
TERRELL, TX           67  57  69  58  66 /  10  40  50  50 100
CORSICANA, TX         69  58  71  59  67 /  20  40  50  40 100
TEMPLE, TX            68  59  73  61  69 /  20  30  40  40 100
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  54  70  59  66 /   5  10  30  70 100

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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