Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 312341
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH EARLIER APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE WACO AREA. THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND THIS SHOULD MERELY SUPPLEMENT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS THE NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS TEXAS. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LIKELY THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT GOOD
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DECENT SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT. WILL INDICATE MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /  10   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /  10   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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