Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 011757 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY EAST
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS CONTINUING. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A MIX OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 100-120 KFT AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF THE DFW TAF SITES...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. IT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING APART AS PEAK
HEATING COMMENCES BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES THAT THIS RAIN-COOLED AIR MAY LEAVE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE ARE LOW CHANCES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. IF THESE
OCCUR...IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE DFW TAF SITES BUT
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE NOW
CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
RIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND IT PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. THIS SHALLOW LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX TO THE
WEST FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO SEE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S FEEL QUITE TOLERABLE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SIMILAR TO AREAS THAT SAW SOME STORMS
YESTERDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING
SPREADING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE 20 POPS GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH SENDING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COULD HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY IN OKLAHOMA
WHICH SHOULD IN TURN MOVE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. IT IS LIKELY
THAT ANY CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS THE FORCING BUT DOESNT
DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION. WE WILL KEEP 10 POPS IN FOR NOW BUT IF
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO REVISE OUR CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WOULD LIKELY BE IN PLACE.

EITHER WAY...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BY A FEW
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PULL IN MORE MOISTURE AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES BACK INTO THE 102 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  75  98  77  99 /  10   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              98  71  99  74  99 /  10   5   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             96  70  97  71  99 /   0   5   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            96  70  98  72  99 /  10  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  70  97  72  98 /  10   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            98  76  99  78 100 /  10   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           97  72  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         98  72  98  75  99 /   0   5   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  70  99  73  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  97  72  99 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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