Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010520
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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