Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

This morning`s satellite imagery continues to show a steady stream
of cirrus moving southeast across the area, with a deck of low
stratus located just south of the region. Cigs associated with
the stratus deck are borderline MVFR, and veered flow at 925 MB
should keep these clouds east east of all TAF sites today. South
winds this morning will shift to the north this afternoon as the
next cold front pushes through the area. FROPA in the DFW
Metroplex will likely occur 20-21Z, and the boundary will make it
to the Waco area shortly after sunset. North winds behind the
front will initially be 8 to 10 KT. Sustained wind speeds will
increase to around 15 KT late this evening as stronger pressure
rises arrive with a secondary push of cool continental air.

The latest NAM guidance is hinting at post-frontal IFR in the
Waco area this evening, but the current thinking is that this is
too pessimistic. There will be increasing amounts of low level
moisture the farther south the front gets, but any cigs lower than
MVFR category will likely remain east of the area where a brief
period of isentropic lift will occur and where the better low
level moisture will reside.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 325 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

The current weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by a
prominent upper ridge over the western third of the nation with a
large scale trough dominating the rest of the country. This
places North and Central Texas beneath a northwest flow aloft
regime, which is depicted well on satellite by the large steady
fetch of cirrus spilling southeast from the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, we await the arrival of a cold front currently
stretching across the Central Plains. The front will get a nice
southward push today as a shortwave drops southeast out of
Colorado, with the boundary reaching the Red River early this
afternoon and clearing the southern CWA early this evening. The
strongest pressure rises will occur well behind the initial
frontal passage, so winds will actually be stronger during the
late evening and overnight hours compared to the initial passage
of the cold front.

Temperatures should remain above freezing tonight, but sub-
freezing wind chills are likely during the overnight hours for
areas generally north of I-20 where lows in the mid and upper 30s
will be common, along with wind speeds of 15 to 20 MPH.

Otherwise, some low POPs have been added across the far southeast
counties tonight where post-frontal showers will be possible with
the passage of the shortwave.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/
/Wednesday Through Monday, Including The Holiday Weekend/

Low level, though not overly strong cold advection will be ongoing
Wednesday, as one of the bigger travel days for Thanksgiving
begins. Brisk and cool conditions under partly sunny skies are
expected underneath dry north flow aloft, as a shortwave disturbance
tracks southeast across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley and away
from our area. Despite plentiful sunshine by afternoon, highs
will struggle into the 50s after beginning in the 30s/40s, as a
very dry airmass and surface high settle into the area by Wednesday
evening. The surface high will be draped across the area
Wednesday Night and through Thanksgiving morning. Optimum radiational
cooling conditions will be in place with light winds and a very
dry, continental airmass in place with a chilly start to the
holiday. Lows Thanksgiving morning will be in the 30s areawide,
with protected areas dropping to, or possibly below freezing.
Highs will range from warmest west of I-35 in the lower 70s, to
cooler east in the lower-middle 60s, as we remain underneath dry
north flow aloft. No precipitation is expected with travel across
the area looking good.

North and Central Texas will remain sandwiched between the deep
latitudinal trough over the Eastern CONUS and the upper
ridge over the Western CONUS. A brief transition to breezy
and warmer conditions will occur Friday with occasionally gusty
south winds and mostly-partly sunny skies. After chilly start to
the day Friday morning in the 40s, with a few 30s in protected
areas, highs will rebound quickly well into the 70s most areas as
the Gulf of Mexico remains shut down with a dry airmass hanging
around. By Friday night, the flow aloft will orient northwest as
another shortwave drives southeast across the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. This disturbance will support another reinforcing
cold front through the Southern Plains and our area by Saturday
morning. After a brisk and cool start to the morning, highs should
rebound between 65 and 75 degrees and once again, the bulk of
stronger cold low level advection remains off to the northeast.
Winds should come down by afternoon, as yet another surface high
builds in from the north. Partly sunny conditions will prevail as
periodic rounds of high cloudiness pass across in the progressive
northwest flow aloft.

The high cloudiness should help keep radiational cooling
processes limited somewhat Saturday night, but will still go
cooler than guidance with surface high pressure settling across
the area. Lows will cool rapidly down into the 40s Sunday
morning, with protected areas seeing a few readings down in the
30s. However, as our dry and progressive late Autumn pattern
continues, folks returning from their holiday travels Sunday will
be treated to mostly sunny and slightly above normal temperatures
as the upper pattern dampens with the upper ridge building across
the the region. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s are expected Sunday
afternoon, though the southerly breezes may make it feel a tad
cooler. Low level warm advection and an upper ridge overhead will
lend to breezy and above normal conditions moving into early next
week. Cool mornings between 45 and 55 degrees will modify and warm
quickly into the upper 60s and 70s. Modified moisture will return
northward, but will be shallow with no rainfall expected.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  41  58  38  68 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                72  44  61  34  68 /   5  10   0   0   0
Paris               65  37  54  34  62 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              68  37  56  35  67 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            68  38  56  33  65 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas              69  42  57  39  67 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             69  41  57  34  64 /   5  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  44  59  36  65 /   5  20   0   0   0
Temple              73  46  61  36  69 /   5  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  37  58  34  70 /   0   5   0   0   0




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