Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270000 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.AVIATION...
Earlier MVFR cigs have lifted and scattered this evening, and VFR
will be the rule through the remainder of the TAF period.
Breezy northwest winds will continue for another hour or so,
before quickly slackening after 01Z. High pressure will crest
overhead this evening, resulting in winds backing towards a
southerly direction, but may become light and variable for a brief
period. Airports should be able to resume a south flow by around
06Z. There is a small possibility that some very shallow fog may
materialize late tonight/Thursday morning, mainly across the
Metroplex sites. At this time, it appears any visibility
reductions should be minimal, and the potential is too low to
include in the 00Z TAFs.

In response to cyclogenesis to our north tomorrow, breezy south
winds will materialize during the late-morning hours and will
persist into the evening. Another disturbance will rapidly move
across Oklahoma, but the only impacts to our TAF sites will be an
increasing deck of cloud cover around FL150, with any
precipitation relegated north of the Red River.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/
The strong cold front continues to make southeastward progress and
has nearly cleared the forecast area as of 3pm with the exception
of our far southeastern zones. A few showers and storms remain
immediately along the front but these also will be exiting the
area shortly. Strong pressure rises behind the front have resulted
in gusty northwest winds which are causing much cooler air to be
advected into the region. A Wind Advisory will remain in effect
area-wide through 7pm before wind speeds begin decreasing. Where
post-frontal stratus has lingered, temperatures have held in the
50s throughout most of the day. A gradual clearing trend will
follow this evening and tonight. These clearing skies and light
winds will result in favorable radiational cooling conditions,
and temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s for most
locations by Thursday morning. Given todays rainfall and
lingering moisture, some patchy fog or at least some ground fog
will be possible, mainly along and east of I-35 and have included
a mention in the forecast. No dense fog is expected and any fog
that does develop should be short-lived. A warmer Thursday will
follow with winds quickly returning to the south.

Now that today`s cold front and thunderstorms are out of the way,
the focus shifts to the Friday-Saturday time frame when our next
round of strong to severe storms is expected. There will be a
couple identifiable rounds with this system, the first being a
highly conditional severe storm threat late Friday afternoon and
evening which will depend on the available lift. The second round
will be on Saturday when strong to severe storms are likely in
the forecast area along another cold front.

Moisture will increase on Thursday as a warm advection regime
sets up across the southern plains. Temperatures will rebound
quickly, climbing back into the 70s and 80s area-wide with some
90s possible in our western zones. Moisture will be on the
increase during the day Thursday, setting the stage for
thunderstorm chances to end the week. By Friday afternoon, a
powerful upper trough will be digging southward into New Mexico.
In addition, plentiful Gulf moisture will be in place in the warm
sector of a deepening surface low located in the TX Panhandle.
This warm sector will be bound by a quasi-stationary front near
the Red River and a sharp dryline positioned from SW Oklahoma
southward into Texas. While the capping inversion is forecast to
be fairly weak during this time across North TX, the main question
will be if strong enough lift will be able to generate storms
during this time, either along the dryline with aid from the
approaching trough, or near the quasi-stationary front which
should begin lifting northward through Oklahoma as a warm front.
If storms are able to develop within this quality warm sector
airmass, they will have the potential to quickly become severe
with CAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50
kts. Supercells would be supported by these conditions with all
modes of severe weather possible. However, this potential remains
highly conditional on the strength of the cap and available lift,
and confidence remains low in the convective potential during this
time.

There is higher confidence regarding thunderstorm chances
beginning late Friday night and Saturday as a strong cold front
arrives from the north. The approaching upper trough will aid in
the development of widespread thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the southeastward-moving cold front. Severe thunderstorms are
possible across nearly our entire forecast area throughout
Saturday, although the entire day probably won`t be a washout.
All modes of severe weather will be possible on Saturday as well,
although large hail appears to be the primary severe weather
hazard. How quickly convection grows upscale will determine the
extent of the tornado or wind threats, but forecast hodographs are
not the most favorable for tornado potential at this time. Flash
flooding will also be of concern, especially across our
northeastern zones where the highest rainfall amounts are
currently forecast. Some spots could see 2-4 inches of rain by
the time convection ends late Saturday night with some locally
higher totals possible. Rain amounts should be quite a bit less to
the west and southwest. Unless the system digs farther south and
slows down from the current forecast, am not expecting a terribly
widespread flood threat at this point. Given latest guidance,
rain is expected to be coming to an end from west to east by
Sunday morning at the latest as the cold front clears the area.

A couple of quieter days will follow on Monday and Tuesday with
highs bouncing back to near or above seasonal normals. Guidance
is in fairly good agreement regarding our next shot at storms
during the midweek time frame. Another deep trough is expected to
deepen to our west which should drive another cold front through
the area sometime on Wednesday.

-Stalley

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  81  67  88  71 /   0   0   0  20  50
Waco                47  82  68  89  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               42  76  59  83  67 /  10   0   5  30  60
Denton              43  80  65  86  68 /   0   0   5  20  50
McKinney            44  78  63  85  69 /   0   0   0  20  50
Dallas              50  82  68  88  71 /   0   0   0  20  40
Terrell             47  80  64  86  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
Corsicana           47  81  66  88  72 /   0   0   0  10  20
Temple              48  83  69  89  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       43  85  64  89  66 /   0   0   0  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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