Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181703 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS STALLED FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO CORSICANA TO PALESTINE. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT SO FAR LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY AS A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH WEST TEXAS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. NO CURRENT CHANGES
TO THE WATCH ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 715 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY PREVAILING THUNDER IN WACO FROM 19Z
THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
MIDDAY...WE FEEL THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER
AT THE METRO SITES FROM 20Z THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET AND POSSIBLY
INTO MID EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES. ALL
STORMS SHOULD END BY MID EVENING BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF SCATTERING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN WACO
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A 20 TO 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPACT METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECT FTW AND AFW.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE METRO TAF SITES BY 11Z FRIDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  40  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-
156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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