Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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445
FXUS64 KFWD 190510
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
AND IT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A
BAND OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL SHOW SHOWERS IN THE TAF
FROM 11-15Z...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
WAVE OF ACTIVITY GROWS. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE INSERTED VCTS FROM 18-23Z WHICH IS THE MORE LIKELY
WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE 4KM WRF IS SHOWING
A SOLID LINE DURING THIS TIME.

MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. CIGS WILL LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD
BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
TOMORROW.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF HIGHER GULF MOISTURE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. WILL RETAIN A 20 POP OVERNIGHT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/SKY/DEWPOINTS WERE MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED FLOODING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING TO
THE EAST OF TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS
YIELDS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE
INHIBITION. A LACK OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35KTS
BUT MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF STRONGER WINDS ABOVE 700MB. THE
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700MB IS QUITE WEAK AND SURFACE WINDS
ARE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN MANY AREAS. THESE OPPOSING WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN VERY
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM COLLAPSING
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVE EAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT CONTINUES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME SERIOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND HANGS ON TO
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WONT BE QUITE SO BULLISH ON POPS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...IF THE GFS HAS LATCHED ON TO MORE ROBUST
FORCING FOR ASCENT...WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COINCIDES
WITH A SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
RAIN/STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLOODING
FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURATED SOILS. CONTINUED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.

NOTE ABOUT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL GRAPHICS...

WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BECOME QUITE POPULAR FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. KEEP IN MIND THAT
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES
AND HAVE A NUMBER OF ASSUMPTIONS BUILT IN. THESE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS ASSUME THAT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS CORRECT
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION. MULTIPLE
DAY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY TO INCLUDE MORE THAN ONE
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...AND IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ONCE.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HAS
ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 1 INCH IN OUR SOUTHEAST TO OVER 2 INCHES IN
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID WEEK. ANY OF THESE SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN PUT DOWN CONSIDERABLY MORE
PRECIPITATION OVER A SHORT DURATION.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  83  70  83  65 /  20  30  60  50  50
WACO, TX              69  84  70  85  66 /  20  30  30  20  50
PARIS, TX             67  81  68  80  62 /  20  20  50  50  50
DENTON, TX            67  81  69  81  61 /  20  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  81  68  81  62 /  20  30  60  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  83  70  83  65 /  20  30  60  50  50
TERRELL, TX           68  84  69  83  64 /  20  20  40  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         69  84  70  84  67 /  20  20  30  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            69  85  71  85  67 /  20  30  20  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  80  68  82  63 /  20  50  50  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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