Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 081016
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR IS PLUNGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH TODAY. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES...THE SLOPE OF THE HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES WILL STEEPEN...AND THE ASSOCIATED JET WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
DIGS SOUTH IN RESPONSE. OVER NORTH TEXAS...500MB WINDS WILL EXCEED
100KTS TODAY. WITHIN 2 MILES OF THE SURFACE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH 80KTS. AS THE MIXING DEPTH DEEPENS THIS MORNING...SOME OF
THIS NORTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE. THE WIND
ADVISORY SPEED CRITERION OF SUSTAINED 25MPH SHOULD BE MET
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PEAK GUSTS WILL EXCEED 40MPH IN SOME AREAS.

THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING...
BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. DESPITE THE COOL AIR...THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW
DORMANT...AND THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE
RESISTANT TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL
WILDFIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO
DALLAS...TO CENTERVILLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE.

THE WINDS WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON TUESDAY...BUT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE HERE AND
UPSTREAM...THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL EXCEED THE DIMINISHING
THERMAL ADVECTION. AS A RESULT...MANY AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING...BALMY 850MB TEMPS...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT MAY CROSS
THE RED RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL
REACH PEAK HEATING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS BONE DRY.
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES MAY STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES FOR MID-FEBRUARY.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON VALENTINES DAY...BUT GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER PALTRY IN ADVANCE OF THE SUBSEQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH
WITH A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CORRESPONDING
PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS EVENT REMAINS BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A
RESULT....NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  35  62  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              58  32  64  35  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             52  29  54  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  31  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  31  59  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  36  61  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  34  59  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  34  62  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  33  65  37  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  31  65  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-
174-175.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

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