Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 291144
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THIS MORNING THE EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE LIGHT RAINFALL OVER ALL AREA TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THROCKMORTON THIS MORNING...BUT THINK
THAT THIS MID-LEVEL ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS AS WELL. HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS TO COVER ONGOING
ACTIVITY UNTIL 14Z IN THE DFW AREA...AND THRU 15Z NEAR WACO AS A
RESULT.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM TO BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER HANG AROUND OVER THE REGION TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE
OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
WEAK LIFT OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SO THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. IF WE
GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE DFW AREA. LEFT
VCTS IN THE DFW AREA TAFS FROM 22 TO 03Z EXPECTING SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WACO IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SO LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE WACO TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/
AN AREA OF CONVECTION...NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE
AT THIS WRITING...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE
AND MOST OF IT SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE MORNING. IF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES BEYOND MID MORNING...THEN IT WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SPLIT AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...WE ARE EXPECTING DIURNAL
HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO CAPES AROUND 1800 J/KG AND LI/S OF MINUS 3 TO 5. DOWNBURST
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20...ESPECIALLY THE RED RIVER COUNTIES...WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RECEIVING A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (1/2 INCH OR MORE) TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE SOME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY BE TOTALLY
MISSED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IF IT LASTS THROUGH MIDDAY. CURRENTLY...HAVE A RANGE
OF 92 TO 95 ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS 90 TO 96 ON SATURDAY AND 92 TO
98 ON SUNDAY. WE/LL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AREAWIDE ON
SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. POPS WILL BE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES WEST TO
EAST.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL RE-CONNECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  94  77  96 /  70  40  30  10  10
WACO, TX              95  74  94  76  96 /  80  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             92  72  90  72  92 /  70  50  30  10  20
DENTON, TX            94  74  94  75  97 /  60  40  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  92  74  95 /  60  40  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            94  77  93  77  96 /  70  40  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  75  92  74  94 /  70  40  30  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  75  93  74  94 /  80  30  40  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            94  74  93  74  96 /  80  30  30  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  95  73  97 /  40  40  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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