Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230911
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
411 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
After another day or two of 100-degree heat, North and Central
Texas`s (relatively) brief flirtation with the century mark should
come to an end for several days. On the flip side, our rain
chances will creep upward, which should be welcome news for
everyone.

The large ridge draped across the central and western portions of
the country will hold sway again today, but weaken slightly and
recede westward by Monday. The key weather driver for our region
will be the approach - from the east - of a weak upper level
shortwave, now located over the lower Tennessee Valley. This
feature will slip westward along the southern rim of the upper
ridge, providing subtle lift over the area starting late Sunday,
and especially Monday and Tuesday. With the GFS and ECMWF both
advertising a marked increase in precipitable water, and together
with the SREF, increased QPFs with the approach of this shortwave,
have included 30-40% PoPs over most of the eastern 2/3rds of
North Texas Monday and Tuesday. This shortwave should damp out and
move west of us by Wednesday, but the ongoing upper level easterly
flow pattern, together with increased moisture, justify at least
some low PoPs Wednesday.

By Thursday and Friday, the primary upper high should be well west
of Texas, leaving us in a weak northwesterly flow regime.
Attention from Thursday evening through Saturday may shift to our
northern counties, where convection may drift in from Oklahoma,
forced by multiple shortwaves that are dropping southeastward
through the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley with the
main northern stream of the jet. Didn`t go too crazy with PoPs in
this time horizon, but did include small chances near the Red
River. If a weak frontal or outflow boundary manages to enter
Oklahoma by the end of next week, it`s certainly not out of the
question that extreme North Central Texas could see some
thunderstorm activity - probably during the overnight hours.

On the temperature front, the persistent strength of the upper
ridge should facilitate 100-degree highs across much of North and
Central Texas both today and Sunday. Increased moisture,
cloudcover, scattered rainfall, and modestly lower thicknesses
should all conspire to reel our highs back into the 90s starting
Monday, and continue all week. It`s a tad premature to break out
the parkas, but seasonably normal readings in the mid to upper 90s
should be the norm.

Heat indices will probably climb into the 106-107 range in our
northeast counties today, and push 105 in many other locations.
These values will retreat on Sunday, and given the lack of
persistence, will forego a Heat Advisory at this time.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/
VFR conditions are expected at the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites
through 12z Sunday. An upper level ridge over northeastern New
Mexico will continue to slowly shift westward during the next few
days. This will allow for some isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms
east of a KPRX-KCRS-KLHB line over the weekend. There will be some
scattered afternoon cumulus at the TAF sites. winds will be
generally southerly (varying from southeast during the evenings
to the south southwest overnight through mid morning) at 5 to 10
knots.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80  99  79  96 /  10  10  10  10  30
Waco               101  78 100  77  97 /  10   5  10  10  30
Paris              100  77  98  76  94 /  10  10  20  20  40
Denton             100  77  98  76  95 /  10   5  10  10  30
McKinney            99  78  98  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  30
Dallas             100  81  99  80  96 /  10  10  10  10  30
Terrell             99  77  98  76  95 /  10  10  10  20  40
Corsicana           99  78  96  77  95 /  10  10  10  20  30
Temple             100  77  98  76  97 /  10   5  10  10  20
Mineral Wells      100  75  99  75  96 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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