


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
945 FXUS64 KFWD 072358 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 658 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will persist Tuesday and Wednesday. However, a few storms could be strong with gusty winds in addition to the localized flooding concern. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 144 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Another active afternoon is taking shape across the region with showers and storms impacting many locations across North and Central Texas. For this afternoon, the highest coverage will remain in Central Texas, but scattered storms are possible anywhere in our region. A weak mid-level disturbance is interacting with our very moist airmass and surface features that remain in our vicinity. This will continue to support at least scattered showers and storms through early this evening. The main hazard will be localized flash flooding from slow moving moderate showers or storms. Most of the activity will diminish again in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating, with quiet conditions expected overnight. Unfortunately, the rain is not over for us with another round of showers and storms possible as early as Tuesday morning. A decaying storm complex is expected to move southward from Oklahoma into North Texas. Most of the CAMs show scattered convection developing over North Texas in the morning, shifting towards portions of Central TX in the afternoon. Again, gusty winds and localized flooding will be the main concerns if storms can maintain any strength. Another decaying complex of storms may approach the Red River counties Tuesday night, but at this time the chances are around 20% for our area. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 144 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025/ /Wednesday through Next Weekend/ The northwest pattern aloft will continue to send shortwaves southward and with any leftover surface boundary in the region, we will see more scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. The highest coverage is expected to be across East Texas and southern Central TX with PoPs between 30-50%. This should be the last round of widespread precipitation with only low rain chances on Thursday across the Brazos Valley region. We will finally have dry but warmer conditions on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Some of the extended guidance continue to show more storm systems moving south over the weekend which could bring at least some low rain chances over the area. The good news is that at least this will keep the heat indices from reaching 105 region wide. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions prevail this evening with scattered SHRA continuing to wind down south and east of the TAF sites. The rest of tonight is expected to be quiet with southerly flow falling below 10 kts. Guidance has continued to signal the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday morning (around 11-12Z) in the vicinity of the D10 airspace so we will retain the mention of VCTS at the major airports. The main adjustment with this update is to push the VCTS into the afternoon given the persistent signal from the CAMs for this activity to remain near the DFW Metroplex through 21-22Z. The convective evolution could be similar to today with redevelopment along convergence zones/outflow boundaries making convective motions chaotic at times. For Waco, while we will likely see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across Central Texas, the probability of any of this activity reaching KACT before the end of the current TAF period is too low to warrant any mention of VCTS/TSRA at this time. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 91 75 93 76 / 10 30 10 20 5 Waco 73 90 73 90 74 / 10 20 10 30 5 Paris 73 89 72 93 73 / 10 40 20 30 10 Denton 74 92 73 93 74 / 10 40 20 20 5 McKinney 75 91 75 93 74 / 10 40 20 30 5 Dallas 76 92 76 95 76 / 10 30 10 30 5 Terrell 73 91 73 93 73 / 10 30 10 30 10 Corsicana 75 91 75 93 75 / 10 30 10 40 5 Temple 73 90 72 91 73 / 20 20 10 30 5 Mineral Wells 73 92 73 93 72 / 10 20 20 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$