Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 181210 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016
An area of mostly MVFR stratus had spread along and southeast of
a line from KLZZ to KFTW to KF00 as of 1130z. Winds at 1500 feet
are south southwest at 40 knots. Thanks to the more south
southwest component today, am not expecting the stratus to be as
far west as yesterday and it will likely not last as long. Thus
have just indicated SCT015 at KAFW and KFTW with just a brief
TEMPO BKN015 to be slightly on the pessimistic side. At the rest
of the TAF sites have started them off with BKN015 but show a
TEMPO SCT015 in couple of hours and just VFR by 16z at KDFW and
KGKY and by 17z at KDAL and KACT.
A weak cold front that extended southeast of a KOKC-KLAW-KABI
line as of 12z will move to the southeast of a K0F2-KGZN line
before stalling this afternoon. Thus southerly winds will prevail
at at the TAF sites through 18z Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are
expected to spread back into KACT toward 10z Wednesday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/
The 3 AM surface analysis indicated that a front extended
southeast of a line from Wichita, Kansas southeast into the South
Plains of West Texas. This front will move southeast into the
northwestern parts of North Texas today and is expected stall just
east of a Bowie to Cisco line by sunset. Despite some convergence
along this boundary, the cap is expected to remain strong enough
to not allow thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening.
After some morning low clouds across the central and eastern parts
of the forecast area through mid to late morning, expect skies to
become mostly sunny. It will be another day of well above normal
temperatures. Highs will be in upper 80s to mid 80s across the
forecast area. The only exception may be in the northwestern
zones, where a few mid 80s will be possible behind the front. DFW
will likely come within a degree or two of its record high for
October 18th (93 degrees set in 1921, 2004 and 2005). Waco`s
record high for October 18th is a less attainable 96 degrees which
was set in 1947.
The aforementioned front will lift back to the north tonight
as lee side troughing develops ahead of the next shortwave.
Outside of some late night low clouds, skies will be clear to
partly cloudy tonight and lows will be in the mid 60s to the
As a shortwave moves out of Rockies Wednesday, a cold front will
move south down the Plains. This front will enter the northwestern
part of North Texas before sunset Wednesday and sweep through
the rest of the forecast area before daybreak Thursday. We will
have a chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late Wednesday
afternoon across the northwestern zones, and area wide Wednesday
night. No severe weather is expected at this time, though we
cannot rule out a few strong storms north of I-20. Rain chances
will end across most of the forecast area Thursday morning as the
shortwave moves off to the east. A few showers/thunderstorms may
linger into the afternoon across the southeastern zones.
Rainfall totals are expected to range from less than 1/4 inch
across the south to 1/2 to 3/4 inch across the north.
Winds will shift to north behind the front and will be gusty on
Thursday. Although skies are expected to clear by afternoon across
most of the forecast area, the cold advection behind the front is
expected to allow highs to only reach the 70s.
Dry weather is expected Thursday night through the weekend. With
diminishing winds and clear skies, lows will range from the mid
40s to lower 50s. It will be mostly sunny and cool Friday with
highs in the 70s. Light southerly winds will return Friday night
as the surface high that built in behind the front moves off to
the east. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
An upper level ridge will build in from the west this weekend.
This along with the return of southerly low level flow will
result in a warming trend that will continue into early next week.
Lows will be in the 50s area wide Saturday night...upper 50s to
lower 60s Sunday night...and low to mid 60s Monday night.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 71 89 62 74 / 0 5 10 60 30
Waco 92 71 90 64 77 / 0 5 5 50 30
Paris 88 70 87 61 75 / 5 5 10 60 30
Denton 90 70 88 59 73 / 0 5 10 60 20
McKinney 89 70 87 59 73 / 0 5 10 60 30
Dallas 91 72 88 64 74 / 0 5 5 60 30
Terrell 89 70 88 62 75 / 5 5 10 50 30
Corsicana 91 70 89 66 76 / 5 5 10 50 30
Temple 92 70 90 65 77 / 0 5 5 40 30
Mineral Wells 89 67 89 59 73 / 0 5 10 60 20