Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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945
FXUS64 KFWD 072358
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will persist Tuesday and Wednesday. However, a few
  storms could be strong with gusty winds in addition to the
  localized flooding concern.

- Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend
  with heat index readings up to 105 possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 144 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025/
/Through Tuesday Night/

Another active afternoon is taking shape across the region with
showers and storms impacting many locations across North and
Central Texas. For this afternoon, the highest coverage will
remain in Central Texas, but scattered storms are possible
anywhere in our region. A weak mid-level disturbance is
interacting with our very moist airmass and surface features that
remain in our vicinity. This will continue to support at least
scattered showers and storms through early this evening. The main
hazard will be localized flash flooding from slow moving moderate
showers or storms. Most of the activity will diminish again in
the evening due to the loss of daytime heating, with quiet
conditions expected overnight.

Unfortunately, the rain is not over for us with another round of
showers and storms possible as early as Tuesday morning. A
decaying storm complex is expected to move southward from Oklahoma
into North Texas. Most of the CAMs show scattered convection
developing over North Texas in the morning, shifting towards
portions of Central TX in the afternoon. Again, gusty winds and
localized flooding will be the main concerns if storms can
maintain any strength. Another decaying complex of storms may
approach the Red River counties Tuesday night, but at this time
the chances are around 20% for our area.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 144 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025/
/Wednesday through Next Weekend/

The northwest pattern aloft will continue to send shortwaves
southward and with any leftover surface boundary in the region, we
will see more scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. The
highest coverage is expected to be across East Texas and southern
Central TX with PoPs between 30-50%. This should be the last
round of widespread precipitation with only low rain chances on
Thursday across the Brazos Valley region. We will finally have
dry but warmer conditions on Friday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s. Some of the extended guidance continue to show more
storm systems moving south over the weekend which could bring at
least some low rain chances over the area. The good news is that
at least this will keep the heat indices from reaching 105 region
wide.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions prevail this evening with scattered SHRA
continuing to wind down south and east of the TAF sites. The rest
of tonight is expected to be quiet with southerly flow falling
below 10 kts. Guidance has continued to signal the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday morning (around
11-12Z) in the vicinity of the D10 airspace so we will retain the
mention of VCTS at the major airports. The main adjustment with
this update is to push the VCTS into the afternoon given the
persistent signal from the CAMs for this activity to remain near
the DFW Metroplex through 21-22Z. The convective evolution could
be similar to today with redevelopment along convergence
zones/outflow boundaries making convective motions chaotic at
times. For Waco, while we will likely see some scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop across Central Texas, the probability of
any of this activity reaching KACT before the end of the current
TAF period is too low to warrant any mention of VCTS/TSRA at this
time.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  91  75  93  76 /  10  30  10  20   5
Waco                73  90  73  90  74 /  10  20  10  30   5
Paris               73  89  72  93  73 /  10  40  20  30  10
Denton              74  92  73  93  74 /  10  40  20  20   5
McKinney            75  91  75  93  74 /  10  40  20  30   5
Dallas              76  92  76  95  76 /  10  30  10  30   5
Terrell             73  91  73  93  73 /  10  30  10  30  10
Corsicana           75  91  75  93  75 /  10  30  10  40   5
Temple              73  90  72  91  73 /  20  20  10  30   5
Mineral Wells       73  92  73  93  72 /  10  20  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$