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000
FXUS64 KFWD 062117
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG S/W MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOW ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME
PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
A FEW HOURS. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE 4-CORNERS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
INTO WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK...SO WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY BY MONDAY INTO THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A MUCH
STRONGER MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS DISCREPANCY SEEMS TO ORIGINATE
FROM THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE ECMWF...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL LOWER TEMPS
A BIT IN THE EXTENDED BUT KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON IT.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  39  70  46  57  37 /   0   5   5  40  20
WACO, TX              35  67  44  58  37 /   0   5   5  40  30
PARIS, TX             35  65  42  59  38 /   0   5   5  40  20
DENTON, TX            35  70  43  55  34 /   0   5   5  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          33  68  43  56  35 /   0   5   5  40  20
DALLAS, TX            39  70  47  58  36 /   0   5   5  40  20
TERRELL, TX           36  68  45  60  37 /   0   5   5  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         39  67  46  61  38 /   0   5   5  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            35  67  45  58  36 /   0   5   5  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  73  44  54  34 /   0   5   5  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$