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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210414 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1114 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
06z Tuesday as an upper level ridge maintains its grip on the
weather across North and Central Texas. South flow will persist
through the forecast period with southeast winds around 10 knots
veering around to the south overnight and then backing around
to the southeast by 20z Monday.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/
A hot but slightly less humid day is underway this afternoon.
Temperatures have climbed into the mid and upper 90s, but
dewpoints have mixed into the 60s across most of the area which
has helped hold heat index values below 105. Drier air can be
seen working into our western counties while slightly higher
moisture content remains across the eastern 2/3rds of the area.
Cumulus development has been relatively unimpressive thus far
with practically no ascent present, and as a result, only a very
low potential for a couple showers exists. Have maintained some 10
PoPs through this evening across our eastern zones within the
area of better moisture. Otherwise, a warm and dry summer night is
expected with lows in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/
An upper level ridge will start to weaken on Tuesday but will
keep us hot and mostly rain-free through the day Tuesday. The
good news is that the weather across North and Central Texas will
be nice for viewing Monday`s solar eclipse with mostly sunny
skies expected area wide. There will be low chances of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon east of a Bonham to Corsicana to
Temple line and on Tuesday afternoon southeast of a Temple to
Palestine line. Highs will be in the 90s both days with heat index
values in the upper 90s to 108 degrees.

As a shortwave moves down the Northern and Central Plains in the
northwesterly flow aloft, a cold front will slide down the Plains
on Tuesday. This front will approach the Red River Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms chances will spread southeastward during the
evening through the overnight hours. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night and some locally
heavy rain will also be possible.

We will have below seasonal normal highs for the rest of the week
thanks to the increased cloud cover and chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid 80s north to upper 90s
south Wednesday, mid 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday.
Some drier air looks like it will work its way in from the
northeast Thursday and Friday bringing lower rain chances to our
northeastern zones Thursday night and Friday. Another decent
shortwave is expected to approach late Saturday into Sunday
bringing better chances of showers and thunderstorms for next
Saturday night and Sunday.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  80  99  77 /   5  10   5   5  40
Waco                77  99  76 100  77 /   0  10   5  10  10
Paris               75  94  75  94  74 /   5  20  10  10  50
Denton              77  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  40
McKinney            76  96  74  96  74 /   5  10   5  10  40
Dallas              80  98  79  99  78 /   5  10   5   5  30
Terrell             76  96  76  97  74 /   5  10   5  10  30
Corsicana           77  97  76  98  76 /   5  10  10  10  10
Temple              75  99  75 100  75 /   0  10   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       75  97  74  97  73 /   5   5   5  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/25