Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
292 FXUS64 KFWD 131749 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... | - Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding later this afternoon and early this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of North and Central Texas through 7 PM. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 534 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ Update: The potential for flash flooding will continue across North and Central Texas today. There are two main areas of convection ongoing this morning: (1) a thunderstorm complex in southeast Oklahoma and (2) the remnants of the complex of storms that moved through Lampasas earlier. At it`s peak, rain rates in the Central Texas complex reached 2 to 4 inches/hr. This, combined with slow storm motions, led to very rapid accumulations with a few gauges reporting rain totals of 4 to 8 inches over the last 6 hours. The increased soil saturation from this morning`s rainfall has significantly reduced the infiltration capacity of the soil and thus increased the potential for rapid surface runoff with any additional rainfall. Translation: Flood issues will emerge VERY quickly with any additional rain that falls. This means that even hourly rainfall rates as low as 0.25-0.75"/hr can and will pose a risk for flooding. The main change made with this morning`s forecast update has been to increase PoPs primarily across Central Texas through this afternoon as the embedded vorticity maxima continues to slowly pivot across the region. 12 Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ A moist and unstable airmass remains entrenched across North and Central Texas this morning, as the upper trough drifting slowly eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma drags a small vorticity max across Central Texas. These features are embedded within a stagnant and weakly diffluent upper-level flow pattern, situated between broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and the Southeast U.S. The resulting col region aloft, augmented by the quasi- stationary trough over the Central Plains, continues to support deep-layer ascent across a saturated column. This setup will sustain the ongoing wet and unsettled pattern through the forecast period with periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding remaining the primary concern through early Sunday evening. Recent GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a broad moisture plume draped across North and Central Texas with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range, above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. These values are consistent with the latest HREF and NBM probabilistic guidance, which continue to advertise high-end moisture anomalies. The slow-moving thunderstorm complex that has developed across western Central Texas (near Lampasas, Mills, and Hamilton counties) over the past few hours is expected to continue to gradually shift east and northeast across the region through the remainder of the overnight period, supported by persistent low- level WAA and the mid-level perturbation embedded in the flow aloft. While surface-based instability will be limited during the early morning hours, elevated instability (750-1500 J/kg) will support continued convective redevelopment, particularly south of the I-20 corridor where convergence remains maximized. Rainfall rates will vary locally, but any slow-moving or training convection will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a short period, with localized amounts in excess of 4-5 inches possible. Given the already saturated soils in portions of North and Central Texas, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM Sunday for areas mainly and along and west of I-35, including the DFW Metroplex and the I-35 corridor southward to Temple and Waco. The watch has been cancelled for the following locations where the expected additional rainfall totals are now below 1 inch: Young, Jack, Montague and Cooke. The relative lull in activity occurring across North Texas right now is expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours as early evening convection has stabilized the lower troposphere. However, as the vort max continues to progress across Central Texas we could begin to see convective activity spreading towards the I-20 corridor before daybreak, in addition to redevelopment in eastern North Texas, closer to the favorable forcing of the main upper trough. Scattered thunderstorms could develop again this afternoon, particularly along remnant outflow boundaries and differential heating zones. With the weak mid-level low progged to be lingering nearby, most of the CAMs support renewed activity favoring Central and East Texas, with the potential for localized training storms once again. Weak mid-level winds will continue to promote slow storm motions, maintaining a flash flooding risk into the early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated though isolated gusty downburst winds and even a few isolated instances of small hail cannot be completely ruled out. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ /Monday through Saturday/ Lingering moisture and weak ascent may continue to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. By Monday evening, the broad upper-level trough should finally begin to lift northeastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley, leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across most of our forecast area. Though Tuesday was previously anticipated to be the beginning of our transition towards a more typical mid-July pattern, the mid-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. is now not likely to build as strongly westward given the lingering influence of the late weekend troughing which may still be located to our north as we head into mid-week. Despite this forecast shift, there should still be a decrease in rain chances while high temperatures warm closer to seasonal averages. Continued surface dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index values into the triple digits next week, with peak values in the 100-105 degree range especially along and east of I-35. Ensemble guidance shows general agreement in the ridge maintaining control through the end of the week, though some signs of subtle weakness aloft could allow for isolated sea breeze-driven showers or storms to reach our southeastern counties by late Friday and into next weekend. Confidence remains low in the scenario for now. Otherwise, a hot and increasingly dry pattern will dominate through the end of the forecast period, typical for mid-July in Texas. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ The environment over much of North Texas, including D10, has remained fairly stable, owing to substantial mid and high level cloudiness leftover from earlier rains. An area of renewed convection is developing across Central Texas early this afternoon, and the north edge of this shield should deposit isolated thunderstorms into parts of D10 by 23z, if not a bit earlier. Believe the window for any storms in the Metroplex area will be limited to the 23z-03z period, before the loss of daytime heating shuts down most of the activity. In addition, much of this current convection is related to an mesocale convective vortex (MCV) centered near San Saba. This feature should track east northeast through 00z, limiting the amount of activity that bleeds further north into D10. Waco, on the other hand, should experience 2-3 hours of occasional thunder, followed by VCSH for the remainder of the afternoon. After 03z this evening, believe the vast majority of any precipitation will have diminished or moved east of the D10-area TAF sites or Waco. Maintained VFR ceilings at all sites through most of the overnight period, with the addition of MVFR ceilings at Waco from 09-15Z. Guidance does also suggest the possibility of some limited showery redevelopment across North Texas after 09z, and included VCSH at all sites through daybreak Monday. Confidence in this additional precipitation is not great at this time, however. Conditions should transition to VFR sky conditions areawide by mid morning Monday. Surface troughing to the west of the region will promote a south to southwesterly flow regime through Monday afternoon, at speeds averaging 06-10 knots. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested today within the Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 73 88 75 92 / 60 30 30 10 20 Waco 86 72 87 73 90 / 80 40 40 10 10 Paris 86 71 86 72 90 / 70 40 50 20 30 Denton 88 72 89 73 93 / 40 30 30 10 20 McKinney 88 73 88 74 92 / 60 40 40 20 20 Dallas 89 73 88 75 93 / 70 30 40 10 20 Terrell 88 72 88 73 92 / 70 40 40 10 10 Corsicana 90 73 91 75 93 / 70 40 40 10 10 Temple 88 72 89 73 91 / 80 40 40 5 10 Mineral Wells 88 71 89 72 93 / 40 20 30 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$