Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 290345 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A WARMER AND BREEZY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL STAY BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SOUTH WINDS BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
BACK INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
BREEZIER WINDS WILL LEAD TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR
MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR STEADY
AND EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AS THE
DEWPOINTS START TO INCREASE IN THAT AREA.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO MOVE OVER AREA AIRPORTS
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MORNING STRATUS
INTRUSIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MODELS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET OF AROUND 45 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE STRATUS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 SATURDAY MORNING. LEFT A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CEILINGS IN AT WACO TOMORROW MORNING AS MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER WACO BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST...REMAINING JUST EAST
OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. STRATUS LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT
VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

DESPITE THE FORECAST FOR A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MIXED OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT ANY
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS. WILL MONITOR SURFACE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WOULD ONLY INCLUDE LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS IF WINDS FALL TO 5 KTS OR SO AS THERE
IS NO STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO CONTEND WITH.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY
AS SURFACE PRESSURES DROP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
A 995MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY AND
HEAD EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO INVADE THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND...THIS COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING AND BRING A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO 16C TO 18C OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S
OVER MOST OF THE CWA TOMORROW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS EAST OF I-35
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS EAST OF I-35 SHOULD MIX
OUT BY NOON...WHICH MEANS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE A BREEZY...IF NOT WINDY...DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT
IT APPEARS SPEEDS WILL BE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
SUBTLE BACKING AND WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE STUBBORN TO ERODE...AND IS THE
ONLY REASON TEMPS WILL NOT REACH THE 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. FORECAST HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE VERY SENSITIVE
TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND IF THE FRONT IS JUST A
COUPLE HOURS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THEY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THE EXACT FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS ARE LARGELY FRIVOLOUS...BECAUSE
REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO
30S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND INTO THE 40S FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST BELOW A STOUT THERMAL INVERSION. WHILE JUST
A FEW LOW-TOPPED WEAK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER THE EAST...THE RAPID COOLING OF THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS
SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. SINCE THE GROUND
WILL BE WARM AND THE DRIZZLE WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THERE IS LITTLE TO
NO THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB...NO ORGANIZED LIFT
ALOFT...AND ANEMIC LAPSE RATES. THIS RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT NO
IMPACTS FROM ANY WINTRY PRECIP ARE EXPECTED...AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO NOT MENTION IT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TRACKING MORE EAST...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW OVER TEXAS.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE
STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AND TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE GOOD INDICATIONS THAT
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BREAKING THROUGH THE INVERSION AND INDICATING SUNNY SKIES. AS A
RESULT...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY...AND THESE
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE IF CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDY SKIES GROWS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS A GOOD BET THAT CLOUDS WILL RETURN EVEN IF THEY DO SCATTER OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY...AND COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BE TOO WARM GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE/FOG. THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 60S FOR HIGHS AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST WITH THE WARM FRONT.
ALL IN ALL...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COOL...DAMP AND CLOUDY
STRING OF DAYS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF ANYTHING.

TR.92





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  76  63  77  40 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              54  75  63  76  53 /   0   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             50  73  61  74  45 /   0   0   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            53  75  61  77  37 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          53  74  63  76  40 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            55  75  63  76  41 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           55  73  63  74  48 /   0   0   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  75  62  77  55 /   0   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            51  76  63  77  56 /   0   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  75  57  76  36 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/82






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.