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000
FXUS64 KFWD 240439 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Wednesday at the TAF
sites. A cold front moved through North and Central Texas Monday
evening. North winds at 10 to 15 knots will become northwest by
12z and increase to 16 to 20 knots by 17z Tuesday with some gusts
over 25 knots likely. Winds will decrease to around 10 knots
around 00z Wednesday. Only some scattered high clouds are
expected.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 306 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/
/Through Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows a fast moving shortwave trough digging
southward through the Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a
reinforcing cold front is now draped through the Midwest and into
southern Oklahoma. This front will quickly swing through North
Texas this evening with winds becoming more northerly. Only a few
passing high clouds are associated with this system so no
precipitation is expected. It will be cool tonight with most areas
dropping into the 40s with north winds.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/
/Tuesday Onward/

Dry weather will prevail through the next few days with a gradual
warming trend. Tuesday will be 10-15 degrees cooler for most of
the area thanks to the dry cold frontal passage overnight. With
another shot of dry air arriving, this will elevate fire weather
conditions on Tuesday afternoon as relative humidity falls to 20%
with continued gusty north winds. Depending on how quickly winds
subside, Tuesday night could be quite cool with dewpoints scoured
into the 30s or upper 20s. If efficient radiational cooling
conditions prevail, temperatures could fall several degrees lower
than the current forecast of lower 40s.

Winds will return to a more westerly direction on Wednesday and
become more southerly on Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm
a few degrees each day. Additional elevated fire conditions are
possible Thursday afternoon as temperatures climb well above
normal into the upper 70s and 80s while breezy southwest winds
overspread the region.

By Thursday evening, another cold front is expected to
enter the region, this time with some substantial Arctic air
behind it with a very deep upper trough encompassing much of the
Central US. Without significant moisture return across the
Southern Plains, the initial frontal passage is expected to be dry
for our forecast area. However, much of the forcing associated
with the deep upper trough should lag behind the initial front.
With some mid-level moisture available, elevated rain showers
will be possible on Friday well behind the frontal boundary.
However, precipitation would have to overcome what appears to be a
very dry 850-700mb layer in place across most of the area. Have
continued to include some low PoPs, mainly for areas east of I-35.
Otherwise, Friday should be quite blustery and much cooler, with
temperatures struggling to reach the 60s and sustained north winds
of 20-30 mph. Lows Saturday morning will be the coldest of the
season so far, with some outlying areas in our northwestern zones
possibly plummeting to near freezing.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  72  46  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                50  74  41  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               48  68  41  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              48  72  41  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            49  71  41  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  73  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             50  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           50  72  44  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  74  41  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       46  72  40  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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