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322
FXUS64 KFWD 230307 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1007 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
For the evening update, lowered PoPs across our eastern counties
for the remainder of the night as most of the precipitation
continues to pull away from the region as TD Cindy moves farther
northeast across Louisiana and Arkansas. The convection well to
the northwest in the Texas Panhandle is again not expected to
track into our region. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
was in good shape. The main weather highlights for tomorrow will
first be the dangerous heat and a Heat Advisory remains in effect
for tomorrow along and just outside the Interstate 35 corridor.
Then the front will arrive Friday night with rain chances
spreading from north to south.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24 hours at all
TAF sites, although can`t completely rule out lingering FEW/SCT
stratus below 3 kft early Friday morning. The current light
northerly winds will return to the south later this evening as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy move away to the northeast. The
focus will then shift to Friday evening and overnight when
thunderstorms may impact TAF sites as a cold front slides into
North TX. Have included some VCTS in the extended DFW TAF along
with a wind shift back to the north behind the cold front. This
activity will be largely scattered, so pinning down the most
likely time for the inclusion of TS will prove to be difficult.
Additional storms are possible through early Saturday morning,
just outside the current TAF window.

-Stalley

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 358 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
/Tonight through Saturday Morning/

T.D. Cindy continues to churn up through the Sabine River Valley
at this hour with some ill-defined rain bands wrapping around the
western periphery. Outside of these pockets of rain, impacts from
Cindy across North and Central TX have been quite minimal. In
general, this will continue to be the norm through the short term
forecast period. Friday will be hot and humid as subsidence
associated with Cindy overspreads North and Central TX.
Thereafter, a cold front is expected to slide southward towards
the area which appears to support decent rain chances, for at
least the northern one to two thirds of North and Central TX on
Saturday.

For tonight---Rain chances should dwindle as Cindy becomes
enveloped in the broad trough across the eastern CONUS. Much of
the activity across North and Central TX this afternoon has been
devoid of any lightning activity. While I can`t rule out a rumble
of thunder or two, I feel the potential is quite low and I`ll
simply carry a mention of rain showers in the weather group during
the overnight hours. Otherwise, it`ll be a warm and very humid
night into Friday morning for much of North and Central TX.

For Friday---A majority of the day on Friday is expected to be
precipitation-free as height rises overspread much of North and
Central TX in the wake of the departing tropical depression. This
sinking air aloft coupled with generally stagnant low level flow
will likely result in oppressive outdoor conditions. Flow will
eventually become more easterly which should allow for a bit of
weak moisture transport towards the west. With temperatures
soaring into the 90s to the low 100s and dewpoint temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s apparent temperatures will climb above Heat
Advisory criteria. While "technically" not meeting the two day
requirement, given the very hot conditions and expected oppressive
conditions, we will go ahead and issue a one day Heat Advisory
for areas near and just outside of the I-35 corridor. Be sure to
avoid prolonged periods of strenuous outdoor activity and remain
hydrated with plenty of water.

For Friday night and Saturday Morning---The chance for more
widespread rainfall looks more likely during this time as a cold
front slides southward. While the large scale ascent is generally
weak, there does appear to be sufficient convergence along and
just behind the surface frontal boundary (closer to the 925-850mb
front). While the time of day for convective initiation is not
ideal, there is an overwhelming amount of agreement between both
hi-res and coarser model guidance that indicates widespread
showers and thunderstorms. That being said, will still err on the
conservative side with a 50 to 60 percent chance for
precipitation, mainly along and north of I-20 late Friday and into
the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. Widespread severe weather is NOT
expected at this time, but some gusty winds and small hail cannot
be completely ruled out. Heavy rainfall will be a concern given
the slow moving nature of the convection.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 358 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
/Saturday through Wednesday/

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mostly elevated,
should be ongoing early Saturday morning across North Texas. The
surface front should be draped across the southern half of the CWA
with most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to the north of
the frontal boundary. Despite subtle forcing for ascent, showers
and thunderstorms should spread south through the morning with the
cold front. While there is some potential for a strong
thunderstorm, right now it looks like the severe threat will be
limited on Saturday given the elevated nature of the ongoing
convection. We`ll show a decrease in PoPs from north to south
through the day Saturday.

The Sunday through Tuesday timeframe will feature little
significant change in the upper pattern with continued northwest
flow aloft and east-southeast flow in the lower levels. With the
remnant frontal boundary draped across Central Texas, each
afternoon should feature scattered showers and thunderstorms with
the greatest concentration across the southern half of the CWA.
Some drier air will begin to move in from the east late Monday as
a strong shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Progressively
deeper dry air will filter into North Texas through late week
ending the rain chances.

Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with the expected clouds
and precipitation. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper
80s. These slightly below normal readings will continue into early
next week before temperatures rise back into the mid 90s for the
middle and latter part of the week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  72  84  72 /   0  10  60  60  20
Waco                76  99  74  86  71 /   0   5  40  60  20
Paris               73  92  70  81  67 /  20  20  60  30  20
Denton              74  98  70  83  69 /   0  10  60  40  20
McKinney            75  98  70  82  69 /   5  10  60  40  20
Dallas              77  99  73  84  72 /   0  10  60  60  20
Terrell             74  95  72  83  70 /  10  10  60  50  20
Corsicana           73  95  73  84  70 /  10  10  50  60  20
Temple              75 100  75  88  71 /   0   5  30  50  20
Mineral Wells       71 100  69  83  68 /   0  10  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>094-
102>105-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

&&

$$

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