Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 010633 AAD
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1233 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail. Shift to north flow early Wednesday.
Early morning thunderstorms will remain north and northeast of
Metroplex TAF sites.

The 00Z RAOB from Fort Worth showed a lingering capping inversion
around 850mb, preventing 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from being
realized. A cooling boundary layer this evening has strengthened
this inhibition further, but forcing for ascent is spreading
across the region, and steepening lapse rates aloft have
maintained the instability beneath the inversion. Strong to severe
storms have developed in advance of an approaching cold front, but
even if this activity is able to bleed south of the Red River, it
should remain well north and northeast of the Metroplex. This will
impact the Bonham cornerpost, but the storms will race into
Arkansas by the morning push. Surface winds have begun to veer
across western North Texas, and westerly flow will precede the
predawn frontal passage. North flow will prevail Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
Latest environmental analysis at 10 pm indicates moisture is very
scant and below 850mb with a significant dry layer still across
especially the southern two-thirds of North-Central TX tonight for
anything more than some spotty elevated showers and a few storms
mainly across the eastern Red River Valley, then across our
eastern counties with the passage of cold front late tonight.
A strong storm or two with lightning and hail will be possible
across mainly our Northeast counties, but otherwise not seeing a
lot of potential for deep, sustained updrafts across the area for
the most part. Have removed severe wording near the Red River
Valley, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, the shortwave and
large-scale ascent are now arriving with some meager development
currently across South-Central Oklahoma. Some of this will build
southeast toward Paris to Emory in the midnight-3 am CST period.

Otherwise, look for blustery and cooler conditions behind the cold
front Wednesday morning, with clearing skies.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/
A strong capping inversion has held across the region today. The
dry line has moved just to east of a Wichita Falls to Junction
line as of 3 PM while a cold front extended from northwestern
Missouri to southeastern Colorado. We will likely need the cold
front and an approaching shortwave to weaken the cap sufficiently
for surface based storms tonight. Have kept a 20-30 percent POPs
in for areas along and northeast of a Bowie to Palestine line
through this evening and 20-30 percent POPs overnight along and
east of a Sherman to Lampasas line. With steep lapse rates and
strong shear, if the cap were to break, some severe storms would
be possible.

The cold front will move into the Graham to Bowie areas shortly
after midnight and sweep rapidly southeast through all but the
southeastern-most zones by daybreak Wednesday. Winds will shift to
the west at 10 to 15 mph as the front approaches and then become
northwest to north at 15 to 20 mph and some higher gusts with
frontal passage. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s
northwest to lower 60s southeast.

Winds will be north at 15 to 20 mph Wednesday with some gusts
over 25 mph. The combination of the winds and relative humidities
in the upper teens to mid 20s, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are expected mainly along and west of the Interstate 35
corridor. Dry weather is expected across the North and Central
Texas Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be cooler but
will be near or slightly above normal through this period except
for Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday night will be mostly in the
30s...except near 40 southeast.

Southerly winds will return Friday. As a surface trough deepens
to our west, expect gusty southerly winds Saturday to advect gulf
moisture northward. Low rain chances will start to return by
Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night through Sunday
night. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday until a cold front pushes through and brings in drier
air.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  65  38  64  41 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                53  67  36  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               52  63  35  63  39 /  30  10   0   0   0
Denton              49  63  33  64  37 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            52  65  35  64  38 /  20   5   0   0   0
Dallas              52  65  40  65  42 /  10   5   0   0   0
Terrell             54  66  37  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  68  39  65  40 /  20  10   0   0   0
Temple              55  68  37  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  64  32  65  36 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/05



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