Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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292
FXUS64 KFWD 131749
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...
|
- Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized
  additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding later this
  afternoon and early this evening. A Flood Watch remains in
  effect for much of North and Central Texas through 7 PM.

- Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 534 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/
Update:

The potential for flash flooding will continue across North and
Central Texas today. There are two main areas of convection
ongoing this morning: (1) a thunderstorm complex in southeast
Oklahoma and (2) the remnants of the complex of storms that moved
through Lampasas earlier. At it`s peak, rain rates in the Central
Texas complex reached 2 to 4 inches/hr. This, combined with slow
storm motions, led to very rapid accumulations with a few gauges
reporting rain totals of 4 to 8 inches over the last 6 hours. The
increased soil saturation from this morning`s rainfall has
significantly reduced the infiltration capacity of the soil and
thus increased the potential for rapid surface runoff with any
additional rainfall. Translation: Flood issues will emerge VERY
quickly with any additional rain that falls. This means that even
hourly rainfall rates as low as 0.25-0.75"/hr can and will pose a
risk for flooding. The main change made with this morning`s
forecast update has been to increase PoPs primarily across Central
Texas through this afternoon as the embedded vorticity maxima
continues to slowly pivot across the region.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

A moist and unstable airmass remains entrenched across North and
Central Texas this morning, as the upper trough drifting slowly
eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma drags a small vorticity max
across Central Texas. These features are embedded within a
stagnant and weakly diffluent upper-level flow pattern, situated
between broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and the Southeast
U.S. The resulting col region aloft, augmented by the quasi-
stationary trough over the Central Plains, continues to support
deep-layer ascent across a saturated column.

This setup will sustain the ongoing wet and unsettled pattern
through the forecast period with periods of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding remaining the primary concern through early
Sunday evening. Recent GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis depict a broad moisture plume draped across North and
Central Texas with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0
inch range, above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. These
values are consistent with the latest HREF and NBM probabilistic
guidance, which continue to advertise high-end moisture anomalies.

The slow-moving thunderstorm complex that has developed across
western Central Texas (near Lampasas, Mills, and Hamilton
counties) over the past few hours is expected to continue to
gradually shift east and northeast across the region through the
remainder of the overnight period, supported by persistent low-
level WAA and the mid-level perturbation embedded in the flow
aloft. While surface-based instability will be limited during the
early morning hours, elevated instability (750-1500 J/kg) will
support continued convective redevelopment, particularly south of
the I-20 corridor where convergence remains maximized.

Rainfall rates will vary locally, but any slow-moving or training
convection will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a
short period, with localized amounts in excess of 4-5 inches possible.
Given the already saturated soils in portions of North and
Central Texas, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM
Sunday for areas mainly and along and west of I-35, including the
DFW Metroplex and the I-35 corridor southward to Temple and Waco.
The watch has been cancelled for the following locations where the
expected additional rainfall totals are now below 1 inch: Young,
Jack, Montague and Cooke.

The relative lull in activity occurring across North Texas right
now is expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours as early
evening convection has stabilized the lower troposphere. However,
as the vort max continues to progress across Central Texas we
could begin to see convective activity spreading towards the I-20
corridor before daybreak, in addition to redevelopment in eastern
North Texas, closer to the favorable forcing of the main upper
trough. Scattered thunderstorms could develop again this
afternoon, particularly along remnant outflow boundaries and
differential heating zones. With the weak mid-level low progged to
be lingering nearby, most of the CAMs support renewed activity
favoring Central and East Texas, with the potential for localized
training storms once again. Weak mid-level winds will continue to
promote slow storm motions, maintaining a flash flooding risk into
the early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated though
isolated gusty downburst winds and even a few isolated instances
of small hail cannot be completely ruled out.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/
/Monday through Saturday/

Lingering moisture and weak ascent may continue to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. By
Monday evening, the broad upper-level trough should finally begin
to lift northeastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley,
leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across most of our
forecast area. Though Tuesday was previously anticipated to be the
beginning of our transition towards a more typical mid-July
pattern, the mid-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. is
now not likely to build as strongly westward given the lingering
influence of the late weekend troughing which may still be
located to our north as we head into mid-week. Despite this
forecast shift, there should still be a decrease in rain chances
while high temperatures warm closer to seasonal averages.

Continued surface dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index
values into the triple digits next week, with peak values in the
100-105 degree range especially along and east of I-35. Ensemble
guidance shows general agreement in the ridge maintaining control
through the end of the week, though some signs of subtle weakness
aloft could allow for isolated sea breeze-driven showers or storms
to reach our southeastern counties by late Friday and into next
weekend. Confidence remains low in the scenario for now. Otherwise,
a hot and increasingly dry pattern will dominate through the end
of the forecast period, typical for mid-July in Texas.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

The environment over much of North Texas, including D10, has
remained fairly stable, owing to substantial mid and high level
cloudiness leftover from earlier rains. An area of renewed
convection is developing across Central Texas early this
afternoon, and the north edge of this shield should deposit
isolated thunderstorms into parts of D10 by 23z, if not a bit
earlier. Believe the window for any storms in the Metroplex area
will be limited to the 23z-03z period, before the loss of daytime
heating shuts down most of the activity. In addition, much of
this current convection is related to an mesocale convective
vortex (MCV) centered near San Saba. This feature should track
east northeast through 00z, limiting the amount of activity that
bleeds further north into D10. Waco, on the other hand, should
experience 2-3 hours of occasional thunder, followed by VCSH for
the remainder of the afternoon.

After 03z this evening, believe the vast majority of any
precipitation will have diminished or moved east of the D10-area
TAF sites or Waco. Maintained VFR ceilings at all sites through
most of the overnight period, with the addition of MVFR ceilings
at Waco from 09-15Z. Guidance does also suggest the possibility
of some limited showery redevelopment across North Texas after
09z, and included VCSH at all sites through daybreak Monday.
Confidence in this additional precipitation is not great at this
time, however. Conditions should transition to VFR sky conditions
areawide by mid morning Monday.

Surface troughing to the west of the region will promote a south
to southwesterly flow regime through Monday afternoon, at speeds
averaging 06-10 knots.

Bradshaw

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested today within the
Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  73  88  75  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
Waco                86  72  87  73  90 /  80  40  40  10  10
Paris               86  71  86  72  90 /  70  40  50  20  30
Denton              88  72  89  73  93 /  40  30  30  10  20
McKinney            88  73  88  74  92 /  60  40  40  20  20
Dallas              89  73  88  75  93 /  70  30  40  10  20
Terrell             88  72  88  73  92 /  70  40  40  10  10
Corsicana           90  73  91  75  93 /  70  40  40  10  10
Temple              88  72  89  73  91 /  80  40  40   5  10
Mineral Wells       88  71  89  72  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$