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000
FXUS64 KFWD 011142
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND SOME TEMPORARY
LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT.

CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 FT WITH OCCASIONAL SCATTERED VFR
CEILINGS. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...MOVING EAST. HOWEVER...AS SOON AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE
VISIBILITY IS FALLING BELOW 1 MILE AND IN SOME CASES BELOW 1/2
MILE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLIFY THE CEILING TRENDS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING AND CARRY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...MVFR BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z AND VFR AFTER 20Z. THE DRIVING
FACTOR FOR THE CEILING TRENDS IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO AROUND
17Z. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL STAY UP AROUND 12
KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
RAIN BAND IS MOVING EAST...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
SUN...DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO...IT WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WE HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THAT
EVENT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TX...WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS COLD FRONT...AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT MAY PROVIDE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIF...NORTH TX WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH NO RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  28  43  31  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  30  44  35  58 /  30   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  40   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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