Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 032141
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low remains over northwest Mexico today with water
vapor satellite showing a steady stream of rich moisture training
over the state. Most of North Texas is currently experiencing a
break in the precipitation with some areas of light rain
continuing to develop under the influence of weak isentropic lift.
However, another batch of rain is moving across our Central Texas
counties, and this is where we anticipate most of the rain will
remain through the overnight period.

One shortwave is in the process of exiting the region to the
northeast, and the best warm air advection/isentropic lift is also
shifting east of the region. In the lower levels of the
atmosphere, cold air advection is expected to move in from the
north tonight and continue on Sunday. Aloft, shortwave ridging is
expected to evolve ahead of the eastward moving upper level low.
The combination of the two will make it difficult for additional
rain across at least our northern half through Sunday. Weak
isentropic lift across our Central Texas counties and the arrival
of another series of weak disturbances across Southeast Texas are
expected to keep light to moderate rain across areas south of
Interstate 20 tonight through Sunday. There is a low potential
for a few thunderstorms south of Interstate 20 tonight. Some of
the rain may expand north into the Interstate 20 corridor during
the overnight hours, but should quickly end Sunday morning.
Meanwhile the rain will continue in our Central Texas counties.

The extent of rain coverage will likely diminish Sunday afternoon
but another round of rain is expected areawide Sunday night and
Monday as the upper level low moves over the region. Our concerns
for flooding potential remain low as rainfall totals over the past
24 hours were mostly below 1.25-1.5" and additional rounds of rain
are not expected to be heavy enough to cause widespread flooding.
Additional storm total rainfall from tonight through Monday is
anticipated to be less than an inch across roughly the
northwestern 2/3rds of the CWA with totals between 1-2 inches
across our south and southeast counties.

The extent and location of best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday remains challenging due to slight model
discrepancies, but the best rain chances are still expected to be
over our southeast half as the surface low tracks along the Texas
Coast and the upper level low moves over these southern counties.
Periods of heavy rain may occur with the more vigorous activity.
Minor nusiance flooding in low-lying areas may occur but widespread
flooding is not expected to be a threat.

Temperatures tonight through Monday will not vary much with lows
in the 40s and highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A weak front
will move through the region on Tuesday with high temperatures on
Tuesday varying from the lower 50s in the northwest to mid 60s in
the south. A more drastic temperature change is in store Wednesday
night through Friday night as a very strong cold front brings us
the coldest temperatures of the season so far.

The front will arrive Wednesday and Wednesday night with strong
north winds of 10-20 mph behind it. Temperatures will fall
quickly, and the strong winds will make it feel significantly
colder. Have kept the low rain chances in our eastern counties on
Wednesday, but in the wake of Tuesday`s front, moisture return is
scarce, and we likely won`t see any precipitation. In addition,
there won`t be any help from large-scale lift as the shortwave
embedded in the upper level trough will remain north of the area.
Much of the region will be near or below freezing Wednesday night
with highs on Thursday only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. However,
with the winds, it will feel like it`s in the teens and 20s
Thursday morning. A surface high will settle over the region
Thursday night/Friday morning, and with light winds and clear
skies, a hard freeze is expected for all of North and Central
Texas. Have continued to undercut MOS guidance a few degrees for
lows Friday morning.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

Intermittent light rain will persist throughout the afternoon as a
steady stream of showers continues spreading north across our TAF
sites. The heartier echoes are deeper showers, benefiting from
decent mid-level lapse rates. However, the instability aloft is
wholly inadequate for thunder; thus, we`ve removed the mention in
the Waco TAF. The vigorous 850mb flow will be focused into
Southeast Texas where CAPE values will continue to support
embedded thunder. The Cedar Creek cornerpost is northwest of the
best instability and should remain fully open this afternoon.

The swath of precipitation impacting our TAF sites will gradually
shift east late in the day. Northeast flow within the boundary
layer this time of year typically results in deteriorating
ceilings/visibility, and LIFR conditions are expected late
tonight. As the stratus deck supersaturates and descends, drizzle
will likely prevail. Conditions will slowly improve to MVFR by
Sunday afternoon, which will be a respite from the rainfall.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  53  46  51  43 /  50  20  60  60  20
Waco                47  51  46  50  43 /  90  60  90  90  20
Paris               44  51  42  48  44 /  30  20  40  80  40
Denton              45  53  43  51  42 /  40  20  50  50  20
McKinney            45  52  44  49  42 /  40  20  50  60  30
Dallas              47  53  46  50  43 /  50  20  60  70  20
Terrell             46  53  46  50  43 /  50  20  60  80  40
Corsicana           47  51  47  50  44 /  80  50  90  90  20
Temple              46  51  46  51  45 / 100  70  90  90  20
Mineral Wells       45  52  44  51  42 /  50  20  60  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/82


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