Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230223
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
923 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BENEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S DURING
THE PAST HOUR...AND LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH THE 70S AREA-
WIDE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 724 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS HOT AND GENERALLY FREE OF EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS OR RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH DUE TO A PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONCE A
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER THAN GFS/CANADIAN BUT FASTER
THAN IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG BUT
IT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...SO
AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78 100  79 101  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              75  99  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            74 101  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          71  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  79 101  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  99  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  98  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71 100  72 101  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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