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000
FXUS64 KFWD 071141 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...

WILL KEEP ALL SITES MVFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE. WE/VE RECEIVED SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE METROPLEX...BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AT ALL METROPLEX AIRPORTS UNTIL
16Z THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES REMAIN BELOW TAF THRESHOLD
GUIDANCE. ANY SNOWFALL OF SLEET SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH.

OTHERWISE...ALL AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN SUB-FREEZING THROUGH THE
FORECAST. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING DATA COMING IN NOW SHOWS THAT THE WARM NOSE HAS
FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0 AND THAT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...HAVE CHANGED THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE TODAY FROM SLEET TO LIGHT SNOW. WILL KEEP
THE POPS LOW SINCE ANY SNOW FLAKES THAT FALL WILL STILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME A STOUT LAYER OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL
WILL STICK.

WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR NOW

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE FALLEN DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SLEET
PACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS WELL AS CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM BOTTOMING OUT THIS MORNING. LOCATIONS THAT
WE EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE DIGITS...REMAINED IN THE TEENS AS OF 3
AM. WE STILL EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH TO COOL TO AROUND
12 OR 13 DEGREES BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SITES WILL REACH THE HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA OF 10 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE CANCELED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING. WE HAVE ALSO
CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY SINCE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS ABOVE 0 DEGREES. IT WILL
STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S IN ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE MELTING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TRAVEL ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN TREACHEROUS.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER PRECIPITATION TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SLEET. THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVEL SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF THE SLEET FROM MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND BUT ANY AREA THAT SEES CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT COULD SEE
SHOWERS OF SLEET. IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...THEY
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND REALLY WILL NOT ADD TO THE IMPACTS THAT ARE
ALREADY PRESENT.

THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ONCE AGAIN.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND SOME PARTIAL SUN IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ONCE
AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
DUE TO THE DECREASING PRESENCE OF MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND THE
RETURN OF THE SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN REGION-WIDE.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  26  23  38  25  35 /  30  10  10   5  10
WACO, TX              27  18  41  26  39 /  20  10  10   5  20
PARIS, TX             27  23  34  26  36 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            23  19  34  21  35 /  30  20  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          23  20  33  22  35 /  30  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            26  23  37  27  37 /  30  20  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           24  22  36  26  37 /  30  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         27  24  41  29  37 /  20  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            28  22  44  28  41 /  20  10  10   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     23  16  41  24  36 /  20  10  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75