Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240439
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1039 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018


.UPDATE...
Another clear and cold night is underway as ideal radiative
cooling conditions have once again developed across North and
Central Texas. The usual cold spots have already dipped below
freezing, while the more urban areas remain in the upper 30s and
40s. However, with clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass in
place, even the warmer locales will at least flirt with the
freezing mark by daybreak. Grids have been updated to account for
the hourly temperature trends, otherwise the current forecast is
in great shape.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 554 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/
VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as upper level
ridging dominates the region. North winds of 5 to 10 KT should
become calm to light and variable over the next few hours as low
level flow decouples. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast
on Wednesday as the axis of a surface ridge moves east into East
Texas, with speeds remaining below 10 KT. Otherwise, any
lingering smoke plumes from localized grass fires should remain
well north and east of the DFW area this evening.

30

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 304 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Although relative humidities are in the teens and 20s across
North and Central again this afternoon, wind speeds are a lot
lower -- in the 5 to 10 mph range versus yesterday`s 15-25 mph
with gusts over 35 mph. A surface ridge that extended from
Colorado south-southeast across West Texas this afternoon will
move slowly east into North Texas tonight. Skies will be mostly
clear with only some scattered thin high clouds. North winds 5 to
10 mph will become light and variable overnight. With these mostly
clear skies, light winds, and dry air in place, temperatures will
fall into the 20s to mid 30s overnight.

58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/
/Wednesday Onward/

Generally mild and dry weather will prevail through Thursday
before some rain chances arrive Friday into Saturday. Wednesday
will begin with light and variable winds before they become
southerly later in the day as surface high pressure shifts east of
the region. Despite the onset of south winds, the air will remain
quite dry as the quality moisture remains well to our south along
the Gulf Coast. By Thursday, the shortwave currently located
across the southwestern US will pivot through North TX. While
moisture will be lacking prior to the shortwave`s passage, this
disturbance will act to increase southerly flow through the low
levels and pull moisture back into the area by early Friday with
dewpoints climbing back into the 50s. As a result, low clouds
will also be on the increase late Thursday night and into Friday.
Despite the increase in clouds, warm advection should still
allow temperatures to climb mostly into the 60s.

A second trough will deepen through the Central Plains on Friday.
Since moisture will now be in place due to the initial shortwave,
the lift provided by this second trough will be capable of
generating rain showers throughout the day Friday as warm/moist
advection occurs through the lowest ~5 thousand feet. This
activity should confined below a fairly stout capping inversion
initially. However, as the trough and associated cold front
approach Friday night into Saturday, enough cooling should occur
through the mid-levels to increase MLCAPE to a few hundred J/kg.
Overall, instability will remain quite meager, but should still be
supportive at at least some scattered thunderstorms. Due to
marginal instability, relatively weak shear, and the strongest
shortwave energy tracking well to our north, severe weather
appears unlikely at this time. Storm chances are highest Friday
night into Saturday morning and higher the farther east your
location. Our western zones that could really use the rain may
miss out once again.

The aforementioned cold front will push through the forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will mean slightly cooler
temperatures for Sunday, but there isn`t expected to be much cold
air behind this front. It will, however, serve to dry out the air
once again dropping dewpoints into the 30s. Winds will quickly
turn around to the south by Monday and continued mild and dry
weather will persist through early next week. Another stronger
cold front may arrive during the middle/end of next week along
with additional rain chances.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    34  62  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   5  20
Waco                27  62  33  64  46 /   0   0   0   5  20
Paris               31  59  35  61  41 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              26  60  34  64  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            28  61  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dallas              35  63  38  64  47 /   0   0   0   5  20
Terrell             30  61  34  62  42 /   0   0   0   5  20
Corsicana           32  62  36  63  43 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              29  63  34  63  46 /   0   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       28  63  32  67  44 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91



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