Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 252320 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LOW CEILINGS.

CONVECTION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THE WEST ARE
ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WORKS
TO LIFT AND ERODE A PERSISTENT CAP...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER. THE
RESULTING DEEP CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
RAPIDLY SEVERE. IN THE MEANTIME...THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY
POSE A TURBULENCE/DOWNDRAFT THREAT WITHIN 10KFT AGL...AS VIRGA
EVAPORATES INTO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL OVERTAKE A DRYLINE IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...REACHING THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH A STABILIZING SURFACE
LAYER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY THE TIME
THE ACTIVITY IMPACTS METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTH DEPARTURES AND NORTHWEST ARRIVALS.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER AFTER NORTH WINDS HAVE ENSUED...BUT THE
TOTAL DURATION OF THE FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEF...COMING TO AN END BY 07Z (2 AM CDT).

CEILINGS...
CEILINGS BELOW 10KFT AGL ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES
SURFACE-BASED...AT WHICH POINT MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERING PAST SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
POSTFRONTAL LAYER DEEPENS...THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY MIDDAY.

WINDS...
THE SURFACE LAYER WILL NOT DECOUPLE FROM THE DEEP SOUTHWARD
MOMENTUM FEEDING THE INTENSE CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA...THUS GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. THE
POSTFRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN TIGHTER...AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL OCCASIONALLY TOP 25KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED THE AWW CRITERION OF 35KTS.

WACO...
CENTRAL TEXAS IS LESS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A SIMILAR FORECAST...ALBEIT WITH A DELAYED ONSET OF
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS. REGARDLESS...NORTH
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MORNING OPERATIONS.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN RACING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION
WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AS MID/UPPER 80S CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. AT THE SURFACE...A DRY LINE IS PUSHING
EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA...BUT THE IMMINENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE A STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS MAY LIMIT OUR OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND 6
PM...SPREADING EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AFTER
SUNSET...WITH ONLY A MINIMAL LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS AS FAR
EAST AS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA.

AS THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WEAKENS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER AS THE MAIN TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FAST-PACED
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE OUT AHEAD OF AND UNDERCUT THE CONVECTION.
THIS COMBINED WITH UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG IN ANY ONE AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. WE
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTIVE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM BONHAM TO KAUFMAN TO TEMPLE. A RELAXING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
LESSENING WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TOMORROW IN THE COOL AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SUNNY
AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES NORTH TEXAS. A ZONAL AND RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IS
BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  63  45  73  47 /  50  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  43  73  46 /  50  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             51  62  41  65  44 /  60  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  63  42  72  45 /  60  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          50  62  41  71  43 /  60  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            52  63  45  73  50 /  50  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           52  63  43  70  45 /  50  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  43  70  48 /  50  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  64  44  74  46 /  50  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  63  42  74  46 /  50   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159.


&&

$$

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