Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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854
FXUS64 KFWD 240431
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1131 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Northwest winds behind today`s cold front have backed to the west
and fallen below 10 kts this evening, and will remain light the
rest of the night. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase
to around 15 kt late Wednesday morning. Winds will become light
again Wednesday evening as a surface ridge passes overhead, then
shift around to the southeast by midnight Wednesday night as the
surface ridge moves east into Louisiana. Otherwise, VFR
conditions can be expected as dry air and subsidence dominate in
the wake of a passing upper level trough.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the current forecast other than to completely
remove the mention of light rain for the remainder of the night.
We`re now on the back side of the upper trough and mid level
drying will continue. With clearing skies and light winds,
temperatures have fallen into the mid/upper 50s across the region
and we`ll be flirting with record lows by Wednesday morning.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/
By mid-afternoon, a cold front had moved through the entire CWA.
Adequate instability remains above the frontal layer, and as
large-scale lift associated with a mid-level shortwave swings out
of the Panhandle, numerous showers have developed. Thunderstorms
have been primarily confined to the leading edge of this
convection. As the lapse rates aloft continue to steepen, a few
of these updrafts may be able to support severe hail. That should
be the primary hazard as any gusty winds aloft will struggle to
penetrate the frontal inversion. Outside of the severe
thunderstorm watch, thunderstorms will still be possible until the
mid-level trough axis passes, but with tall/skinny CAPE, deep
showers should be the primary mode.

The speed of the system aloft will allow the back end of the
precipitation area to reach the I-35 corridor by 00Z (7 pm CDT)
and should exit the entire region by mid-evening. Gusty northwest
winds will make for a surprisingly chilly night for late May.
Skies will clear, and a few locations in the northwest may dip
into the 40s. Current forecast lows for Wednesday morning are
just above the record lows at DFW (54 in 1940) and Waco (52 in
1917). If the urban heat island can`t prevent a record at DFW, it
will be the first record low for the site since July 20, 2014. The
northerly winds will continue Wednesday, but the May sun will
still allow afternoon temperatures to reach 80F across the
southwest half of the CWA, including the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex and the Waco/Temple/Killeen area.

South winds will return Thursday and Gulf moisture will make a
rapid return. Shortwave ridging aloft will push temperatures into
the mid to upper 90s across our far western zones Thursday
afternoon. An even warmer and more humid day will follow on Friday
with heat index values topping 100F across much of North and
Central Texas. The exception will be west of an advancing dryline,
which may reach our far western zones late in the day. If the
boundary is able to thrust dryline/downslope westerly winds into
areas from Breckenridge to Graham, they may see the first triple-
digit readings of 2017. A stout cap should prevent the dryline
from realizing any of the instability within the juicy surface
layer east of the boundary.

It may be a different story on Saturday when a cold front enters
North Texas. Keeping with tradition, this late season front may
decide to hang around for a while. If so, the best rain chances
would be across the southern half of the region for Sunday and
Monday. The forecast will hang on the position and potency of the
boundary, but areas along and north of I-20 boundary may see sunny
(or at least rain-free) weather for the latter half of the
Memorial Day weekend.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  79  58  90  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                53  81  58  91  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               52  72  53  85  70 /  20   0   0   0   5
Denton              50  78  55  89  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            52  76  55  87  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              56  80  60  90  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             53  77  56  88  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           54  79  58  89  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              53  83  59  91  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       51  80  55  94  72 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91



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