Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 311821 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05




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