Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 262043
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Overall no significant changes were made to the forecast, but triple
digit temperatures could be making a comeback to portions of the
western half of the CWA starting early next week.
Showers and storms so far this afternoon have been confined to
mainly north of Interstate 30 with some isolated activity east of
Interstate 45. Will maintain a 20-30 percent chance for
convection across all of the region through the evening hours with
most of the activity expected to dissipate by 9 pm. Gusty winds
will be possible with any storms.
For the next few days, the upper level ridge will remain centered
west of North and Central Texas while an inverted trough continues
to slowly slide west across the central Gulf Coast. A vorticity
maximum within the base of the trough is currently located along
the Louisiana/Mississippi border and will continue to slide
northwest tonight. On Wednesday, it will stall near the
Louisiana/Arkansas border, and North and Central Texas will
remain between this feature and the upper level ridge to our west.
With ample moisture in place, the coverage of diurnally driven
convection is expected to be greater on Wednesday than today.
Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain will again be possible
with any storms.
On Thursday, the inverted trough to our east will merge with
another upper level trough moving east through the Midwest. The
upper level ridge will still be centered to our west so expect
isolated to scattered showers and storms Thursday afternoon and
evening with slightly better rain chances across our eastern
counties. On Friday, rain chances will lower some across the
region as drier air begins to invade from the west.
Over the weekend, the upper level ridge will recenter over the
Plains ending rain chances for most of the region this weekend and
at least early next week. A few showers on the afternoon sea
breeze may occasionally reach our southeastern counties but hardly
anyone is expected to see rain early next week.
It will continue to be hot and humid through Friday but humidity
levels are expected to start lowering over the weekend as the
drier air works its way in from the west. With the upper level
ridge repositioning over the area next week, several locations
along and west of Interstate 35 could reach the 100 degree mark
each day next week.
/ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
18 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns...Convective potential this afternoon. VFR outside of
any convective activity.
For the Metroplex TAF sites...VFR with generally south flow can
be expected throughout the entire TAF cycle including the DFW
extended. Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery indicate
that a mid-level shear axis in combination with daytime heating
will be the culprits for encouraging afternoon convection. More
robust mesoscale ascent appears to be across Oklahoma associated
with remnant convective outflows. This will likely impact the
northernmost arrival/departure gates. It is conceivable that this
convection will produce additional outflows which may promote
growth of additional showers/storms further to the south towards
D10 airspace. Given the probability of additional cells along
convective outflows and the Metroplex`s proximity to the upper
level shear axis, I`ve opted to continue with the mention of VCTS
from the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. Convection near or
at any terminals will be capable of frequent lightning, heavy rain
(which will result in poor visibility) and gusty/chaotic winds.
Thereafter, convection should subside with the loss of daytime
heating. East winds this afternoon will become more southeasterly
through the TAF with perhaps a few brief periods of light south-
southwest winds. Convective chances beyond 12 UTC Wednesday are
too low to mention in the TAF at this time, but trends in model
output will be monitored.
For the Waco TAF site...Diurnal convection is expected across
Central TX, but overall confidence in the exact timing only
warrants a broad window for VCTS in the TAF. Convection near or at
the TAF site will be capable of lightning, heavy rain (reducing
visibility) and gusty/chaotic outflow. Otherwise, VFR with east
winds shifting to the south can be expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 97 79 98 79 / 30 30 30 30 10
Waco 75 97 77 98 78 / 20 30 30 30 10
Paris 74 97 74 97 74 / 30 30 30 50 20
Denton 73 95 74 95 76 / 30 30 30 30 10
McKinney 74 95 76 95 75 / 30 30 30 30 20
Dallas 78 97 79 99 80 / 30 30 30 30 10
Terrell 75 95 76 95 75 / 20 30 30 40 20
Corsicana 75 95 77 96 78 / 20 30 30 40 20
Temple 74 95 76 96 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 72 96 75 97 75 / 30 30 30 30 10