Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
356 FXUS64 KFWD 092337 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms (30-50%) will continue through sunset across Central Texas before winding down after nightfall. - Thursday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-109 along and east of the I-35 corridor. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances (20-40%) of thunderstorms each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ /Through Tomorrow Night/ ...Today and Tonight... Upper-level water vapor imagery continues to show a positively tilted trough with its axis extending from Western Texas into the Great Lakes region. Weak synoptic scale lift ahead of this slowly moving trough will be the primary forcing mechanism for widely scattered (30-50% chance) thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening. Most of the activity will be along and south of the I-20 corridor, though a stray shower or storm (10-15% chance) will still be possible closer to the Red River. Cloud cover and storms this afternoon should keep temperatures near or below average yet again, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in Central and Southeast Texas to the mid-90s in the Big Country. Though thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity with sunset, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance) to linger to midnight, as weak forcing from the aforementioned trough will continue to support convection even with the absence of diurnal heating. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. ...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night... Tomorrow, weak synoptic scale subsidence will work its way into the region as the trough axis shifts further east towards the Mississippi River Valley. As such, afternoon/evening storms will be suppressed across most of the region with the exception of east-central Texas where surface moisture will be high enough in conjunction with weak remnant forcing for ascent to potentially initiate isolated thunderstorms (15-30%). The bigger story tomorrow will be the heat. With highs into the mid 90s and afternoon dew points remaining in the low and mid 70s, it will be one of the hotter days so far this year. The combination of hot temperatures and high PBL humidity will result in peak heat indices along and east of the I-35 corridor ranging from 100-109 degrees. By tomorrow night, if any storms are able to develop, they should quickly diminish with sunset, giving way to a clear night and lows in the 70s. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ /Friday through Tuesday/ ...Friday... High pressure is expected to dominate across the region the last day of this work week. This will keep skies clear, and allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid-90s. More abundant sunshine will allow for deeper mixing of the PBL. This will help decrease surface humidity in the afternoon with dew points dropping into the upper-60s and lower-70s. As such, peak heat indices will reduce slightly compared to Thursday, maxing out in the 95-104 range. ...Saturday through Tuesday... Weak troughing is expected to return to the Southern Great Plains by this weekend. This will bring, yet again, the potential for isolated to widely scattered (20-40% chance) showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Probabilities are higher Saturday and Sunday as there is more confidence in the position of the upper-level trough. Solutions diverge heading into the beginning of next work week, with uncertainty regarding the persistence of weak forcing for ascent that would favor diurnally driven convection. Regardless, there will still be a low-end chance for isolated storms during peak heating for Monday and Tuesday, somewhere in the 10-20% range at this time. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Scattered thunderstorm activity continues to affect mainly southeastern portions of D10 as of 2330z, but cells have largely been unable to sustain themselves in the immediate vicinity of the Metroplex airports in the presence of strengthening mid-level subsidence. An isolated rain shower or brief thunderstorm remains possible near DFW/DAL/GKY through about 01z before this activity dissipates with loss of heating. More numerous thunderstorms in Central Texas have impacted Waco for much of the afternoon period, and nearby TSRA will continue to produce erratic outflow winds at the airfield for the next hour or two. South winds of 5-10 kts will recover at all airports later this evening with VFR prevailing into Thursday. At this time, all convective activity is forecast to remain east and south of the TAF sites tomorrow afternoon, as the mid-level trough axis and low-level moisture maximum both progress eastward. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 95 77 94 76 / 10 10 0 0 0 Waco 73 93 73 91 74 / 5 10 0 0 0 Paris 72 94 75 94 74 / 5 20 0 0 0 Denton 74 96 75 95 75 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 74 95 76 95 76 / 5 10 0 0 0 Dallas 75 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 0 0 0 Terrell 73 95 75 94 75 / 5 20 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 95 75 95 76 / 5 20 0 0 0 Temple 72 93 73 92 74 / 10 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 96 74 94 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$