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000
FXUS64 KFWD 051715
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELD BACK QUITE A BIT BY ALL OF
THE SLEET AND SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAINED BELOW FREEZING ANYWHERE WHERE
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATED...SNOW AND SLEET ON AREA ROADWAYS WAS
ALREADY STARTING TO MELT. ANY AREA ROADWAYS WHERE THE ROAD SURFACE
IS EXPOSED TO THE SUN WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS "EARLY MELT" BEFORE
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE THE DARK
SURFACES OF THE ROAD WILL ABSORB THE SUN`S ENERGY CAUSING THESE
SURFACES TO HEAT UP FASTER THAN THE AIR. THIS PROCESS OCCURS
EVERYDAY ACTUALLY...BUT IT IS MORE NOTICEABLE WHEN THERE`S
SOMETHING ON THE ROADWAYS TO MELT OFF. STARTING OFF THE DAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL HELP SNOW AND SLEET
TO MELT OFF AREA ROADWAYS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN SIMPLY WAITING
FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT
AFTER NOON TODAY FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ONCE AIR
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE AIR AND ROAD SURFACE HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL WORK TOGETHER TO START MELTING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS EFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET MELT WILL
BE GREATEST ON WELL TRAVELED ROADWAYS BECAUSE PERSISTENT TRAFFIC
IS MORE LIKELY TO EXPOSE ROAD SURFACES TO THE SUN. ALSO...WHILE
THIS IS FAIRLY COMMON SENSE IT`S WORTH NOTING...NOT ALL AREAS
RECEIVED THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT OF SNOW. AREAS THAT RECEIVED LESS
SNOWFALL WILL SEE IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS THE FASTEST.

IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT (FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT):

URBANIZED AREAS (INCLUDING MOST OF THE DFW AREA):

CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY: NOON
FALL BELOW FREEZING: 8-9 PM
OVERNIGHT LOW: 22-25 DEGREES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY: BY 10 AM
FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE: MID-40S

NON-URBAN AREAS (MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS):

CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY: NOON-1PM
FALL BELOW FREEZING: 7-8 PM
OVERNIGHT LOW: 19-23 DEGREES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY: BY 10 AM
FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE: MID-40S

ANTICIPATED IMPACTS:

URBAN AREAS WILL TEND TO ABSORB MORE OF THE SUN`S ENERGY
TODAY...KEEPING THE AIR TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTRA
HOUR OR SO THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT...SO ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW...SLEET...OR WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS LIKELY TO REFREEZE
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED HOWEVER...SO ANY ROADWAYS THAT BECOME DRY BEFORE 8-9 PM
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR
AREA ROADWAYS OF ALMOST ALL SNOW AND ICE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN SUMMARY...EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF
ROADS BECOMING COMPLETELY ICE AND SNOW FREE BEFORE WE FALL BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO VARY BASED ON THE DISCUSSION
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOME SORT OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE WILL
REMAIN ON ROADWAYS THAT ARE LESS TRAVELED...OR WHERE SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT. FACTORS SUCH AS WHICH
ROADS MAY HAVE BEEN PLOWED OR SEMI-CLEARED BY HEAVY TRAFFIC ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ON A MULTI-COUNTY/CITY SCALE. CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH THAT ANY REMAINING SLUSH ON ROADS AFTER 9 PM WILL
BECOME REFROZEN TO ROAD SURFACES BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEARED OFF OF
MOST AREA ROADWAYS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SNOW COVER AND WIND CHILLS...MVFR CEILINGS AT WACO.

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END...BUT SNOW COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
MELT TODAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL SOON PAST TO
THE EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THEREAFTER. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...SPEEDS STEADILY
DECREASING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO
KILLEEN LINE. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL END ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WE WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING EVEN THOUGH THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
...WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
THUS HAVE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF A
BOWIE...MERIDIAN...GATESVILLE LINE. WILL LET THE REST OF THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM. WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING TO 15
TO 25 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT WITH ICE/SNOW ON THE
GROUND...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO MODERATE FRIDAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS. THIS
MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY...50S SATURDAY...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
SUNDAY AND 60S AREA WIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A SHORT WAVE
SLIDES ACROSS TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  23  47  28  54 /   0   0   0   5  10
WACO, TX              41  22  48  27  53 /   5   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             38  20  45  26  54 /   5   0   0   5  10
DENTON, TX            37  20  47  27  54 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          37  20  47  27  54 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            37  24  47  28  54 /   0   0   0   5  10
TERRELL, TX           37  21  47  28  54 /   5   0   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         40  24  48  29  54 /   5   0   0   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            41  23  49  28  52 /   5   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  19  47  28  55 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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