Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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356
FXUS64 KFWD 092337
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms (30-50%) will continue through sunset
  across Central Texas before winding down after nightfall.

- Thursday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of
  100-109 along and east of the I-35 corridor.

- Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances (20-40%) of
  thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

...Today and Tonight...

Upper-level water vapor imagery continues to show a positively
tilted trough with its axis extending from Western Texas into the
Great Lakes region. Weak synoptic scale lift ahead of this slowly
moving trough will be the primary forcing mechanism for widely
scattered (30-50% chance) thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon and evening. Most of the activity will be along and
south of the I-20 corridor, though a stray shower or storm (10-15%
chance) will still be possible closer to the Red River. Cloud
cover and storms this afternoon should keep temperatures near or
below average yet again, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in
Central and Southeast Texas to the mid-90s in the Big Country.

Though thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity with
sunset, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance)
to linger to midnight, as weak forcing from the aforementioned
trough will continue to support convection even with the absence
of diurnal heating. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night...

Tomorrow, weak synoptic scale subsidence will work its way into
the region as the trough axis shifts further east towards the
Mississippi River Valley. As such, afternoon/evening storms will
be suppressed across most of the region with the exception of
east-central Texas where surface moisture will be high enough in
conjunction with weak remnant forcing for ascent to potentially
initiate isolated thunderstorms (15-30%). The bigger story
tomorrow will be the heat. With highs into the mid 90s and
afternoon dew points remaining in the low and mid 70s, it will be
one of the hotter days so far this year. The combination of hot
temperatures and high PBL humidity will result in peak heat
indices along and east of the I-35 corridor ranging from 100-109
degrees.

By tomorrow night, if any storms are able to develop, they should
quickly diminish with sunset, giving way to a clear night and lows
in the 70s.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/
/Friday through Tuesday/

...Friday...

High pressure is expected to dominate across the region the last
day of this work week. This will keep skies clear, and allow
temperatures to climb into the low to mid-90s. More abundant
sunshine will allow for deeper mixing of the PBL. This will help
decrease surface humidity in the afternoon with dew points
dropping into the upper-60s and lower-70s. As such, peak heat
indices will reduce slightly compared to Thursday, maxing out in
the 95-104 range.

...Saturday through Tuesday...

Weak troughing is expected to return to the Southern Great Plains
by this weekend. This will bring, yet again, the potential for
isolated to widely scattered (20-40% chance) showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Probabilities are higher Saturday
and Sunday as there is more confidence in the position of the
upper-level trough. Solutions diverge heading into the beginning
of next work week, with uncertainty regarding the persistence of
weak forcing for ascent that would favor diurnally driven
convection. Regardless, there will still be a low-end chance for
isolated storms during peak heating for Monday and Tuesday,
somewhere in the 10-20% range at this time.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Scattered thunderstorm activity continues to affect mainly
southeastern portions of D10 as of 2330z, but cells have largely
been unable to sustain themselves in the immediate vicinity of
the Metroplex airports in the presence of strengthening mid-level
subsidence. An isolated rain shower or brief thunderstorm remains
possible near DFW/DAL/GKY through about 01z before this activity
dissipates with loss of heating. More numerous thunderstorms in
Central Texas have impacted Waco for much of the afternoon period,
and nearby TSRA will continue to produce erratic outflow winds at
the airfield for the next hour or two. South winds of 5-10 kts
will recover at all airports later this evening with VFR
prevailing into Thursday. At this time, all convective activity is
forecast to remain east and south of the TAF sites tomorrow
afternoon, as the mid-level trough axis and low-level moisture
maximum both progress eastward.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  95  77  94  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
Waco                73  93  73  91  74 /   5  10   0   0   0
Paris               72  94  75  94  74 /   5  20   0   0   0
Denton              74  96  75  95  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            74  95  76  95  76 /   5  10   0   0   0
Dallas              75  96  77  96  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             73  95  75  94  75 /   5  20   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  95  75  95  76 /   5  20   0   0   0
Temple              72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  96  74  94  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$