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169
FXUS64 KFWD 301113 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light north
winds today. This evening and overnight, the winds will become
light and variable and are expected to become light southerly by
midday Saturday. The skies will consist of some high clouds at
times.

JLDunn

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant conditions are expected to continue over the next
several days with little in the way of sensible weather concerns.
The next rain chances do not return to the forecast until the
early to middle portion of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Quiet weather is expected to continue during the short term time
period as mid and upper ridging continues. The 00 UTC FWD RAOB
coupled with IR satellite imagery revealed a dry and stable
airmass in place across North and Central TX. Dry air and clear
skies have resulted in an excellent radiational cooling overnight
period with areas falling into the 50s. A few of the sheltered and
low-lying areas will likely see low temperatures in the upper 40s!

For Today and Tonight---Dry conditions should persist with
generally light northerly winds. While lingering weak CAA is
expected, the dry airmass coupled with mostly sunny skies should
allow temperatures to quickly climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the area. As a result, I`ve nudged temperatures a few
degrees above guidance, especially given the degree of warming we
experienced on Thursday, despite the stronger CAA.

Tonight should be very pleasant for the multitude of outdoor
festivities across North and Central TX. A few high clouds may
start to encroach on western zones around the periphery of the
ridge, but it should be a quiet night! Overnight low temperatures
may begin to warm a degree or two than the previous night as
winds start to slowly transition to the east and shut off any
remaining weak CAA.

For Saturday and Sunday---Warm conditions are expected to
continue as easterly surface winds continue and ridging remains
dominant across the region. Each day should see temperatures
moderate with a few high clouds streaming in overhead. The ridge
should ensure that precipitation chances remain near nil.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...

For Monday---Low level moisture will start to slowly lift
northward as a fairly potent upper trough beings to take shape
over the Great Basin. 100 to 120 meter height falls will gradually
overspread portions of the eastern Rocky mountains which should
foster lee-side cyclogenesis. The leading edge of the Gulf
moisture, that will likely be trapped below shortwave ridging,
will likely be fairly shallow in nature. While some models suggest
that sea-breeze activity may develop across southern/southeastern
zones, I`ve maintained a dry forecast everywhere due to the
shallow nature of the returning moisture and continued shortwave
ridging aloft. The increasing moisture will yield warmer overnight
low temperatures with slightly cooler daytime highs. Breezy
southerly winds can also be expected on Monday and into Tuesday as
the surface pressure gradient intensifies.

For Tuesday---Things start to get a bit more interesting with
regards to convective chances across the southern plains. The
large upper trough across the Great Basin is expected to amplify
and shift eastward with time. In response, broad low level
troughing and subsequent low level confluence should give birth to
a sharpening dryline across western North TX down into the Big
Country. Fortunately, most models have started to converge on the
overall position of the dryline and current implications are that
by Tuesday afternoon, it`ll be positioned just to the west of our
CWA. Outside of the position of the dryline, models show quite a
bit of variability with regards to other pertinent weather
features.

The ECMWF quickly lifts the parent upper trough towards
the north with little in the way of forcing along the southern end
of the dryline. This would certainly result in a lower coverage of
convection Tuesday afternoon/evening. The GFS on the other hand
maintains a fairly deep trough and lifts the upper trough a tad
slower and drags some of the greater height falls further to the
south. The northwestern zones would also be closer to the synoptic
scale lift associated with the entrance region of the upper jet in
this scenario. Ultimately---the GFS solution would suggest a
higher coverage of convection closer towards western North TX and
the Big Country. For now---I will maintain slight chance PoPs on
Tuesday afternoon mainly across the extreme northwest zones.

With regards to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
---it remains very much in question. While shear would certainly
be more than adequate for organized storm modes, north to
northeast winds in place over the western Gulf of Mexico through
this weekend may yield limited instability for Tuesday. As a
result, we will continue to monitor trends in model output before
becoming too overly concerned about the idea of severe storms next
week.

For Wednesday and Thursday---Additional low level moisture will
continue to lift northward on Wednesday and Thursday. As the upper
trough lifts eastward it should drag a cold front southward. This
front should overtake the dryline and will likely result in
scattered convection across the area. Deep layer shear should
support organized storm modes (probably linear in nature). Again---
with this being fairly far out in time, we will defer to later
shifts before becoming too overly concerned with the exact
details. Should instability be sufficient, a few strong to severe
storms cannot be discounted.

The southern progression of the front remains somewhat in
question, especially with the departing upper trough. The ECMWF
has maintained some run-to-run consistency and pushes the front
through all of North and Central TX. The 00 UTC GFS, on the other
hand stalls the front near the I-20 corridor before lifting it
back towards the north. If this solution verifies---a larger areal
coverage of PoPs may be warranted through the end of the week.
For now, I`ll side with the ECMWF given its recent performance and
run-to-run consistency. With that in mind, I`ve carried PoPs for
much of the area on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. There may be
some lingering rain chances across our Central TX counties on
Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon with heating and remnant
moisture. Cooler and likely below normal temperatures can be
expected in the wake of the front.

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  60  81  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  56  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               79  55  81  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              77  54  80  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77  54  80  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  60  82  63  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             79  56  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78  58  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              79  56  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  55  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/24