Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171557 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED UNDERNEATH THESE LOW CLOUDS AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS SHOW
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK
LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR A COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
INCREASE CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ABOVE 2000FT. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BR THIS AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS CIGS MAY
DROP BELOW 2000FT. THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATER OVER TARRANT COUNTY
THAN IN DALLAS COUNTY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  57  77  61  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              68  54  76  55  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             66  50  75  55  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  53  75  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  52  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            66  57  77  61  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  53  75  58  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  54  77  59  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  55  77  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  58  74  57  79 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82





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