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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210251
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN THE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES... NEARLY ALL STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 PM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE FOR ALL COUNTIES AT 10 PM.
WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A TORNADO ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

FOR THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER FIRST PERIOD POPS IN MOST AREAS AND
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY AND WIND GRIDS.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST ACCARS KDFW SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING THIS EVENING
OVER THE METROPLEX...THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY METROPLEX TAF SITE THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE
CONVECTION WEST OF KACT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z BEFORE REACHING
THE AIRPORT. IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AFTER SUNSET...THEN UPDATES
WILL BE WARRANTED BEFORE THE REGULAR UPDATE AT 03Z.

TUESDAY...UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SQUALL LINE FORMING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE METROPLEX 18-22Z AND THROUGH KACT 22-00Z. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ONLY MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...BUT
DO FEEL THAT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED TO SOME
EXTENT BY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SOMETIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 18KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 22-24KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON.    75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.

TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  86  65  88  69 /  30  60  40  10  10
WACO, TX              72  89  67  89  70 /  40  60  60  10  10
PARIS, TX             69  81  63  85  64 /  30  70  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  85  62  88  65 /  30  50  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  64  88  65 /  30  70  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  89  72 /  30  60  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           71  86  67  88  69 /  30  70  60  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  70  88  70 /  20  60  70  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  88  68  88  69 /  40  50  60  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  87  61  89  66 /  30  50  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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