Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 202150
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VSBY TRENDS...TIMING SWITCH TO SOUTH FLOW.

PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
AT MIDDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
HAS PROLONGED THE DRIZZLE AND IFR CEILINGS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY TOP 2000FT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNLIKELY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANOTHER LINE IN THE TAFS.

DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
TOO LATE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A STOUT INVERSION. THE
SURFACE LAYER WILL SATURATE AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. SUCH A SCENARIO SUGGESTS LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DOMINATE...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL OVC005
FOR 9 HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...THE
INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...RESULTING IN A 4TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH A PLODDING TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66




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