Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 310848
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
348 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning water vapor and satellite imagery show the weak upper low
that was along the TX Coast the last few mornings has now settled
a little farther south into the Gulf of Mexico. This should take
the majority of the forcing associated with it and keep it mainly
out over the open waters of the Gulf. In its wake...a very weak
trough axis remains in place in Central Texas which will still
support some convection in the moist uncapped environment. Over
the last couple of hours...we have seen a small cluster of showers
and thunderstorms develop from north of Houston westward into
southern Milam County. These will likely continue through the
early morning hours.

A little farther north...the center of a 500mb ridge continues to
shift slowly westward but also continues to weaken as it does.
Slightly drier air is associated with this feature and it is now
moving into North Texas. The 6Z sounding from FWD indicated slight
drying in the 700-500mb layer but ample moisture remains below
700mb. This drying should become a little more pronounced later
today as the ridge continues to move west. As for rain/storm
chances...with the drier air moving in from the northeast...the
thinking is that coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
lower than the last few days and more confined to our western
counties. Will only have 20% PoPs for today generally west of
I-35...although can`t totally rule out an isolated storm farther
east. Later this afternoon a stronger shortwave trough will be
moving through the Midwest helping to send a cold front through
the Southern Plains. The front should be approaching our northern
counties this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
likely accompany the front into early evening but should diminish
in coverage with the loss of daytime heating. Will keep some low
PoPs across the northwest and Red River counties during the
overnight hours.

On Thursday...this frontal boundary will continue slowly south
into our CWA. We will still be quite moist and uncapped across the
region...so scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
increase in coverage through the day. Highest coverage will be
along and north of Interstate 20. While the front itself won`t
bring significantly cooler air...substantially drier air will
filter in from the northeast late Thursday night into Friday. This
will push rain/storm chances into our southwest counties on Friday
and Saturday where the remnant front will linger.

Outside of our southwest counties on Saturday...most of the area
should remain dry through early Monday. By that time a strong
shortwave trough will be moving through the western U.S. A
deepening surface low over eastern Colorado will help strengthen
southerly flow across the Plains and will pull moisture northward.
This may result in a few showers and thunderstorms across our
southeast counties by Mon/Tues afternoons. Otherwise...most areas
will stay dry but there will be a noticeable increase in low level
humidity. Temperatures will generally remain near normal through
the next 7 days with the exception of a couple of cooler days
behind the cold front Thursday through Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/
Earlier convection has ceased and anticipate the remainder of the
overnight hours to remain quiet with no clear mechanisms present
to force additional precipitation. High pressure aloft will
reorient itself tonight and into tomorrow across the Texas Big
Country. The resulting weak subsidence and increasing mid-level
temperatures should---to a certain degree---counteract the
plentiful moisture in the lower levels, resulting in less
afternoon thunderstorm coverage than we`ve seen in past days.
While isolated storms will blossom during peak heating hours (in
greatest concentration west of the Metroplex), the prospects for
impacts at the individual TAF sites is too low to warrant mention
of thunder in the 06Z issuances.

During the Wednesday evening period, there are some indications
that a cluster of storms may develop ahead of a southward-moving
frontal boundary in Oklahoma. Given the very weak flow in place,
however, it appears unlikely this activity would make it south of
the Red River. Better chances for showers and storms will spread
to all TAF sites Thursday afternoon as the front slides into our
region.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with afternoon cumulus around
FL050 and north-northeasterly winds in the 5 to 8 kt range.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  77  92  75  89 /  10  10  50  30  10
Waco                93  75  93  74  89 /  20   5  30  20  20
Paris               93  73  88  70  86 /  10  20  40  20  10
Denton              92  73  89  71  88 /  10  20  50  30  10
McKinney            92  74  89  72  88 /  10  10  50  20  10
Dallas              95  78  92  76  89 /  10  10  50  20  10
Terrell             92  75  90  73  87 /  10  10  40  20  10
Corsicana           94  76  92  75  89 /  10   5  30  20  20
Temple              92  74  93  73  89 /  20   5  20  20  30
Mineral Wells       92  72  89  71  88 /  20  20  40  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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