Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...THUNDER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

A DIFFUSE LAYER OF IFR STRATUS AND ACCOMPANYING BR HAS INVADED
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THRUST WILL BE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...
AND GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING IT AWAY FROM WACO. BUT BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECT SOME BRIEF IMPACTS THIS MORNING...
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND THIS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE
IS MIXED THROUGH A GREATER DEPTH.

THE RICH GULF MOISTURE ON THE COAST WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
FOR METROPLEX TAFS...HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
BE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF IT.

THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN STEADILY DETERIORATING
CEILINGS AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
ENSUE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM EVENT MAY
IMPACT THE I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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