Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 290247
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
947 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
We will send out a quick update to lower pops and adjust hourly
temps and dewpoints based on current trends.
High Res models have backed off on any additional showers and
storms overnight and based on the current location of the storms
across the Central Plains, this seems like a reasonable solution.
A few storms may still make it south of the Red River after
sunrise Friday so will leave these pops in place for now.
/ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
Most convection continues to slide south of the Metroplex, with
numerous outflows creating a chaotic scene to the surface winds.
Have extended VCTS for an additional hour to 29/02Z at the
Metroplex sites given the proximity to a westward-advancing
outflow boundary presently along a KTKI-KDAL-KRBD line. Will
monitor this additional activity closely and amend to TEMPO TSRA
as necessary. Activity should, however, continue to diminish as
the atmosphere stabilizes.
The next concern centers around ongoing convection across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and whether or not this activity
persists into our region. Indications continue to suggest the
potential for precipitation impacting the Metroplex sites during
the late overnight/early morning hours on Friday is too low to
mention in this current set of TAFs.
Finally, the weather scene on Friday looks to be quieter across
North Central Texas as we gradually begin to dry out. Afternoon
convection appears most likely in the vicinity of the Red River.
As a result, have continued to precip-free forecasts at all TAF
Outside of thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions to prevail with
south winds generally less than 10 kts.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
portions of North and Central Texas this afternoon. Greatest
coverage has been across our far eastern, southern, and western
counties with little to no coverage across the metro area. Expect
these trends to continue through the next few hours. Lightning, brief
heavy downpours and gusty winds of around 40mph will be possible with
the stronger storms, particularly across our southern counties up
The last few runs of the HRRR have been quite bullish in bringing
thunderstorms from Oklahoma across the Red River and along the
I-20 corridor by late this evening. While coverage is increasing
across northern Oklahoma other guidance is less aggressive and
will tend to discount the HRRR solution for now. Greatest chances
for precipitation overnight into early Friday for our area will be
along the Red River near daybreak with the approach of an
overnight MCS expected to develop across SW Kansas and propagate
southeastward into Oklahoma. This pattern may repeat overnight
Friday into Saturday but the strengthening ridge should shift the
best rain chances further off to the north.
Extended forecast remains relatively unchanged as the upper ridge
is expected to recenter itself across the southern plains by this
weekend and slowly strengthen into next week. This will keep most
of the region dry beginning Friday and allow temperatures to
slowly warm into next week. By early next week increasing heights
combined with south southwesterly low level winds should
allow afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100 degrees across much
of the region Monday through Wednesday. The ridge begins to
slowly weaken over the latter half of next week which would allow
temperatures to ease slightly but produce no significant relief
from the heat.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 97 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 5
Waco 76 98 77 98 77 / 20 10 5 5 5
Paris 73 94 74 95 76 / 20 20 20 20 5
Denton 74 96 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 10 5
McKinney 75 95 75 96 76 / 20 20 10 10 5
Dallas 78 97 78 98 78 / 20 10 10 10 5
Terrell 76 95 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 5
Corsicana 76 96 77 97 77 / 20 10 5 10 5
Temple 75 97 76 98 76 / 20 10 5 5 5
Mineral Wells 73 97 74 99 76 / 20 10 10 5 5