Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180859
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WORKED ITS
WAY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF THE KACT AREA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OFF TO OUR
WEST CREATED LOCALIZED FLOODING...FORTUNATELY NOT ON ANY OF THE
AREA TERMINALS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ARISE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE SPINS OFF WHAT
REMAINS OF ODILE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN A VCTS GROUP AT AREA TAF SITES WITH
THE BELIEF THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER... WE WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BASED SOLELY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  30  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$




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