Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 301832 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

METROPLEX...
SIGNIFICANTLY VEERED WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. AND WITH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES MAY
EXCEED 1000J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH
THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OBLITERATE ALL THE RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INITIATION.
WITH WEAK SHEAR...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
SURFACE HEATING AND SHOULD DECAY AROUND SUNSET.

WACO...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE 90S FROM CORSICANA TO MEXIA...SHOWING THAT
INCREASING INSTABILITY IS NOT FAR AWAY. WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING
REMAINING AT THE HEAT OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AREA
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL COVER.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS CURRENTLY PROVIDING LIFT FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX FROM WACO SOUTHWESTWARD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD
LONGWAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTS
WEST WITH NORTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. A
SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES
WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

SIMILAR IN SOME ASPECTS TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE
EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE
MID 90S NORTH AND LOWER 90S SOUTH. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNSET. THE INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...SHOULD RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR
THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BY ADDING THUNDER
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A
MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
LIMIT INSOLATION AND HEATING TO AN EXTENT.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE CAN BEEN SEEN TURNING OVER WEST
TEXAS...AS WELL AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF OF THE MS/AL GULF
COAST. A THIRD DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
IL/IN. ALL THE WHILE...THE INFAMOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS MOVED
OVER INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE... NUMEROUS
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE BROAD SURFACE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE PLAINS WAS DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS OF
830 Z /330 AM/...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PRESENT SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
EASTWARD AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW.
HOWEVER...IT WOULD STILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. AT BEST...IT REACHES THE RED RIVER
BEFORE WASHING OUT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS PART OF THE AREA RETURNS TUESDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THOUGH.
WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH HERE EITHER. OTHER THAN
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  75  98  76  93 /  20  10   0   0  10
WACO, TX              91  73  95  73  93 /  30  20   0   5  20
PARIS, TX             92  71  94  70  92 /  20  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            93  72  95  73  93 /  20  10   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  72  95  73  92 /  20  10   0   0  10
DALLAS, TX            94  76  96  77  93 /  20  10   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           94  71  94  72  92 /  20  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  95  74  92 /  30  20   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  97  72  92 /  30  30   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  96  71  94 /  20  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05


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