Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011830 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1230 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS...GUSTY NNW WINDS.

CEILINGS...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNSET...BUT A CLEAR SLOT
UPSTREAM OF THE METROPLEX MAY SCATTER THE LOW DECK THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD AIR STRATUS BEHIND THE CLEAR SLOT...THIS SCATTERING WILL
LIKELY BE TEMPORARY. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR GOOD BY MID EVENING.

WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOW IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES. WITHOUT MUCH OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT...CROSSWIND ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. THE STRONGEST MOMENTUM...NOW IN OKLAHOMA...WILL REACH
THE METROPLEX MID AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...IT MIGHT APPEAR THAT THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS TOPPING 20KTS...AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. BUT NIGHTFALL WILL DO LITTLE TO TEMPER
THE WINDS...WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH
MOST NOCTURNAL GUSTS WITHIN 10KTS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVERNIGHT...
GUSTS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. REGARDLESS...GUSTS TONIGHT WILL
OFTEN TOP 25KTS. WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS. OUTDOOR
AIRPORT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A BLUSTERY NIGHT AND
MORNING.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
WE ARE ISSUING AN UPDATE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
SURGING INTO THAT AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH YIELDING
SBCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG. EVEN SO...WE BELIEVEDEVELOPMENT
WILL BE VERY LIMITED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS POOR DUE TO VEERED WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THAT AREA. ONLY A THIN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS READILY THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE COLDER AIR OR TRUE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LAG 100 MILES OR
MORE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WAS PUSHING THROUGH AREAS NORTH
OF I-20 ATTM. THE CAA WAS DRIVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
15 TO 25 MPH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METRO CURRENTLY. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE
DAY WITH STEADY OR SLOW-FALLING TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED THROUGH MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING.
SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            54  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  28  43  31  56 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  20   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            65  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






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