Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 100936
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATION IN THE
SURFACE PATTERN...HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL DELIVER SOME MODEST
VARIABILITY IN OUR TEMPS AND DAYTIME WINDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO EASTERN
KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE GULF.
THE RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL FOSTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR
AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH IN OUR
NORTH AND WEST COUNTIES. COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND
INCREASINGLY CURED FUELS...THESE CONDITIONS HAVE NECESSITATED A
GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 TODAY. JUST A TAD BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT RESIDENTS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REALLY NEED TO START BEING AWARE OF THE
GROWING RISK OF GRASS FIRES ON MARGINALLY WINDY DAYS LIKE
THIS...AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS SURPRISINGLY DRY EL NINO WINTER.

A WEAK (AND DRY) COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WON`T BRING A MAJOR CHANGE IN AIRMASS BY
FEBRUARY STANDARDS...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PULL AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE NORTH BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH MILD 70S CONTINUING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH. A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND
(RAINFREE) FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF ROLLING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AREAWIDE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL EVOLVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE
(BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS ANYWAY) SWEEPS EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE/H8 SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS
MIGHT POP UP IN OUR EASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT...MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUN
NIGHT/MON MORNING WILL WARRANT CONTINUED CHC POPS EAST OF A BOWIE
TO KILLEEN LINE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR
FAR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING MONDAY. THE SPEED AND LIMITED
MOISTURE QUANTITY OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT A FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-35 MIGHT PICK UP A QUARTER
INCH.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR REGION MONDAY...WE`LL RETURN TO A
FAMILIAR DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME AND STICK
WITH IT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THERE`S SOME
VARIABILTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF THE
20TH...BUT NOTHING AT THIS TIME THAT AUGERS WELL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR UNSEASONABLY DRY PATTERN
WILL THUS CONTINUE.

66/BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL NO MAJOR
AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  47  68  38  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              74  45  75  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             65  41  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            73  43  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  43  66  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  47  69  38  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           67  45  69  40  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         70  47  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  47  76  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  43  69  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.