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000
FXUS64 KFWD 150500 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MORNING FROST...OTHERWISE NONE.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. FROST IS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE...AND
PLANES PARKED OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE DE-ICED. VWP
SHOWING 35-KT WINDS AT 2KFT AGL...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LITTLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT TAF SITES. EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
WITH RUNWAYS...WHICH WILL REMAIN FREE OF ICE (EVEN WHERE THERE IS
OPERATIONAL WATER RUNOFF).

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY PASS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE SOUTH.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND MOST
OF TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH TO
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH OVER NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT LED TO HAIL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DALLAS FORT-WORTH
AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. THINNING CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SUN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE DROPPING LATER THIS EVENING. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL
SET UP TONIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
AT 9 PM...BUT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A FROST ADVISORY...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST
FORMING EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN OFFICIALLY
ABOVE FREEZING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A NARROWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD RESIDE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EASTER SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE THURSDAY SYSTEM....BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 30
PERCENT AREA-WIDE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES / MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY / DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  63  41  67  52 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              33  64  39  69  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             31  60  36  64  46 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            30  62  38  66  50 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          30  61  36  65  48 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            36  62  42  67  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           34  61  37  66  49 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         34  62  38  66  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            33  64  37  70  53 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  64  37  69  50 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ119>123-134-135-
146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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