Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212029
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT
AND WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
MUCH...BUT STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BRING THE MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
AND RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA...FRIDAY MORNING.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WILL
RETAIN 30-40 POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH TEXAS AREA FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LIMITED...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
SATURATED AREAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RETURN TO THE 70S GENERALLY
AREA WIDE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ON SATURDAY...AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING EVENT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND
SHEAR. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...THE SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WHICH WOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WIND PROFILE INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS WITH
CELL TRAINING. EXTREME AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE
40-50KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD PROVIDE EXCELLENT MOISTURE
FLUX TO REPLACE THE WATER VAPOR LOST TO PRECIPITATION.

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THESE
BANDS SET UP...BUT WE CAN SAY THAT THE NW CWA IS THE MOST LIKELY
REGION WHERE 6+ INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL...WITH AVERAGE VALUES OF
3-5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH SHERMAN LINE. BY
SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD POOL SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE BAND OF RAIN
AND HELP TO PUSH IT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ZONES..AND 1-3 INCHES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOILS
ARE SATURATED OVER THE REGION...AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...MANY OF THE LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS ARE NEARLY FULL AND WILL NOT BE ABLE HOLD ANY MORE
WATER WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD...JUST IT
IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND PRIMARY BAND OF RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PROBABLY MEANS THAT
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY
BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN CLEARING THINGS OUT. ON
MONDAY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST AND INTO LOUISIANA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE
NORTH TEXAS. POPS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM STORM ANVILS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN ZONES BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE
DAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT HIGH INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR SEVERE PULSE TYPE CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A LOW CHANCE
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS WEST
OF THE REGION. LIMITED DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY UNORGANIZED...BUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

CONCERNS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND RETURN OF CONVECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS NORTHERLY AND
CIGS MVFR TODAY. OVERNIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME EASTERLY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
PROVIDE FOR FALLING CIGS TONIGHT.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE
AREA....BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN AROUND
THE METROPLEX AND NORTH TO THE RED RIVER. THUS THERE MAY BE A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER AS INSTABILITY HAS BECOME WEAK.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ON ALL DAY...THEN TRANSITION TO IFR CIGS AT
KACT EARLY EVENING THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE METROPLEX. HAVE ADDED
SOME 3-5SM BR AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
METROPLEX COULD SEE MVFR CIGS BY 16Z...BUT KACT MAY STAY IFR
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

AS FOR CONVECTION...FRIDAY MORNING IS OUR BEST GUESS AND WILL ONLY
ADD VCSH 11-16Z UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS ON TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  73  67  81  67 /  20  30  20  50  70
WACO, TX              61  78  69  82  68 /  20  40  20  40  60
PARIS, TX             58  70  61  81  68 /  20  40  20  40  70
DENTON, TX            59  72  66  80  66 /  30  40  20  60  80
MCKINNEY, TX          59  72  65  80  67 /  20  30  20  50  70
DALLAS, TX            61  75  68  83  67 /  20  30  20  40  70
TERRELL, TX           60  75  67  83  68 /  20  30  20  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         61  78  69  83  68 /  20  30  20  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            63  78  70  82  69 /  20  40  20  40  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  74  67  80  66 /  30  50  20  60  90

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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