Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
082 FXUS64 KFWD 081046 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 546 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are expected again today and Wednesday. Some storms could produce gusty winds as well as heavy rain and localized flooding, but widespread flooding is not expected. - Low rain chances are expected Thursday through the weekend. - Hotter temperatures and high humidity are expected Thursday through the weekend with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 153 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025/ /Today through Wednesday/ Radar and satellite imagery early this morning across North and Central Texas are both clear for a change, quite a difference from the past several days. Despite the current quiet weather, another round of scattered showers and storms is anticipated across North and Central Texas today, especially our eastern half where a weak upper trough will be in place. CAMs have been fairly consistent showing showers and storms developing around the Metroplex into northeast Texas around 12Z this morning, possibly as a weak boundary currently across Central Oklahoma sinks south into North Texas. This activity looks to continue into the early afternoon while expanding in coverage, mainly along and east of I-35. Our western counties should see less activity today as the H5 ridge over the Four Corner nudges eastward. PWATs have dropped significantly across the region as shown by the 00Z FWD sounding PWAT of 1.83 inches, and this lower tropospheric moisture along with less activity over our rain-soaked southwest counties will preclude any need for a Flood Watch today. Even so, any slow- moving storms could dump locally heavy rain and cause localized flooding anywhere in North or Central Texas, especially urban areas. As we have seen the past several days, rain and clouds will keep temperatures below normal again, with highs only in the upper 80s to low 90s. Wednesday looks to be fairly similar to today as upper pattern remains roughly the same, with scattered showers and storms anticipated areawide. Once again, highest precip chances will be over our eastern half where the upper trough will be in place, with less coverage in our western counties due to influence from the H5 ridge. Guidance also suggests a remnant boundary sinking southward from storms in Oklahoma could enhance storms across our parts of North Texas. Temperatures look to be only slight warmer on Wednesday than today with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 153 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025/ /Thursday through Monday/ 00Z guidance continues the cooler and somewhat wetter trend for the late week and weekend timeframe as there will be little change in the upper level pattern, with a strong H5 ridge centered over the Four Corners, a weak upper trough over Texas, and a weaker H5 ridge over the Gulf Coast states. This pattern will keep slight rain chances in the forecast each day, mainly over our northern and eastern counties. High temperatures now look to stay in the low to mid 90s through the long term, which is roughly around or even slightly below average for this time of year. With the lower temps now in the forecast, the need for heat advisories later this week into the weekend is looking less likely, with peak heat index readings in the 95-105 range each day. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue this TAF period at all airports. Uncertainty remains high on potential impacts from SHRA/TSRA as model guidance has been very inconsistent. After coordination with CWSU FWR, will only mention VCSH at airports for today - although cannot rule out possible VCTS. South winds up to 12 knots will continue through the TAF period. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 75 90 75 94 / 40 10 20 5 5 Waco 89 74 89 74 90 / 30 20 30 5 5 Paris 90 72 89 72 93 / 60 30 40 5 5 Denton 92 73 91 73 95 / 40 10 20 5 5 McKinney 90 74 89 73 93 / 50 20 30 5 5 Dallas 92 76 93 75 95 / 40 10 30 5 5 Terrell 90 73 90 73 93 / 50 20 40 10 10 Corsicana 92 75 92 75 93 / 30 20 40 10 10 Temple 90 73 89 73 92 / 30 20 30 5 5 Mineral Wells 92 72 92 72 95 / 30 20 20 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$