National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 062332
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS
LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DRY...SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS EVIDENCED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY
OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CAUSING LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY 03Z. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE TOO LIGHT OVERNIGHT FOR STRATUS RETURN. WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
TAF LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES. WILL
INCLUDE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z
FRIDAY. STRATUS RETURN IS A BETTER BET FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG S/W MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOW ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME
PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
A FEW HOURS. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE 4-CORNERS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
INTO WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK...SO WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY BY MONDAY INTO THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A MUCH
STRONGER MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS DISCREPANCY SEEMS TO ORIGINATE
FROM THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE ECMWF...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL LOWER TEMPS
A BIT IN THE EXTENDED BUT KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON IT.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  39  70  46  57  37 /   0   5   5  40  20
WACO, TX              35  67  44  58  37 /   0   5   5  40  30
PARIS, TX             35  65  42  59  38 /   0   5   5  40  20
DENTON, TX            35  70  43  55  34 /   0   5   5  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          33  68  43  56  35 /   0   5   5  40  20
DALLAS, TX            39  70  47  58  36 /   0   5   5  40  20
TERRELL, TX           36  68  45  60  37 /   0   5   5  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         39  67  46  61  38 /   0   5   5  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            35  67  45  58  36 /   0   5   5  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  73  44  54  34 /   0   5   5  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79