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000
FXUS64 KFWD 262358 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

DFW Airports: A fairly simple TAF is expected through the next
24-30 hours. Generally VFR conditions are expected but a few
patches of MVFR cigs could occur after daybreak Tuesday. Light
east and east-southeast winds this evening will become light and
variable overnight. By Tuesday afternoon, the winds will return to
a southeast direction but speeds will remain below 10 kts. Some
pop up afternoon showers or storms are possible again Tuesday
afternoon but the confidence and threat is too low at this time
to include a VCTS mention.

Waco Airport: Convective activity through the evening hours is
largely expected to remain west and south of the Waco area, but
will be closely monitoring the progression of the convective
complex to the west (near Brady and Mason). Since there are a few
boundaries still in the Central Texas area at this hour, will keep
a VCSH mention through 02Z and reassess if the mention needs to
be extended, or changed based on the storm complex. VFR conditions
with light and variable winds are expected overnight, and then
MVFR stratus will likely return between 13-16/17Z. Some pop up
afternoon showers or storms are possible again Tuesday afternoon
but the confidence and threat is too low at this time to include a
VCTS mention.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Spotty showers, with only an occasional CG strike, are ongoing
across western portions of North and Central Texas, "mostly" west of
I-35. This is where a shortwave will continue tracking slowly
southeast from the Big Country toward the Hill Country and South-
Central Texas through tonight. Will carry scattered convective
chances through nightfall generally southwest of a Graham, to
Mineral Wells, to Waco, to Hearne line where better forcing will be
associated with this shortwave. After nightfall, widely scattered,
mostly showers with isolated thunderstorms should continue south of
I-20 and west of I-35 for the most part. CAPE is relatively "skinny"
through tonight with the tropical airmass in place with weak
northwest 0-6km bulk shear less than 15 knots, so we do not expect
any severe weather, but can`t rule out some strong downbursts
through nightfall from any collapsing activity. Otherwise, it will
remain muggy overnight with light east-southeast winds less than 10
mph.

Tropical moisture will continue to remain entrenched across the CWA
on Tuesday. Intensifying lee cyclogenesis will help veer winds
southeasterly to between 10 to 15 mph. Though better forcing from
today`s shortwave will be south of our area, any subsidence behind
this feature looks negligible with weak diffluent flow aloft
continuing overhead. A subtle disturbance will move south across
the region by afternoon and have included low convective chances
areawide. However, richer moisture south of I-20 should allow for
more scattered convection to percolate, with more isolated
coverage further north. Like today, shear will be weak with mainly
insolation and old subtle outflow boundaries playing roles for
development.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/
/Tuesday night through Monday/

A relatively benign pattern looks to prevail through the middle
and end of the week as North and Central Texas remains situated
within the northeastern periphery of the subtropical high. A
persistent weakness in the upper-level flow across the Gulf Coast
looks to be the only salient feature of interest during this
portion of the forecast. This feature should help push diurnally-
driven convection into our southern and eastern counties each
afternoon. In typical summertime fashion, winds will be
exceptionally light through the troposphere (you`ll have to head
above 200 mb to find winds in excess of 20 kts), and as a result,
any severe threat looks to remain negligible outside of some
gusty winds as storms entrain drier mid-level air. With limited
change to the synoptic pattern through the end of the week,
temperatures look to fluctuate little from day-to-day, with highs
within a degree or two of climatology. Heat index values will
begin climbing towards or just in excess of 100 degrees into the
upcoming weekend.

The longer range guidance remains in decent agreement that a
departing shortwave and associated surface low across the Great
Lakes will send a stalling cold front into Kansas and northern
Oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening. Climatology, and the
progressive nature of the parent upper trough will strongly work
against this front making it south of the Red River. However, deep
moisture underneath the strengthening EML plume (sub-800 mb
mixing ratios in the 15-17 g/kg range) will result in a reservoir
of copious amounts of instability. As a result, it seems at least
plausible that showers and thunderstorms could materialize along
this boundary Friday afternoon and evening, and this is depicted
with reasonable consistency among the global models. The presence
of dry mid-level air and associated DCAPE values in excess of 1000
J/kg would indicate that cold pool amalgamation would be possible
overnight. This would ultimately favor a decaying thunderstorm
complex tracking towards our Red River counties towards daybreak
on Saturday as any activity builds into a weakening low-level
jet. As a result, we`ve bumped PoPs up just a hair along the Red
River to account for southward-sinking activity given the good
model agreement. Weak mid-level winds and increasing capping
across our region should mute the severe weather threat, but we`ll
refine these details over the coming days as the mesoscale
details become clearer.

Looking just beyond our valid forecast period: the deterministic
GFS paints a potentially unsettled pattern for the 4th, but
ensemble guidance offers up a decidedly drier (and hotter)
solution.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  90  74  92  76 /  20  20   5   5   5
Waco                70  90  72  92  74 /  30  40   5  10   5
Paris               67  89  70  89  73 /   5  20   0   5   5
Denton              69  90  72  91  74 /  20  20   5   5   0
McKinney            69  90  72  91  74 /  10  20   5   5   5
Dallas              72  90  74  93  76 /  20  20   5   5   5
Terrell             70  90  72  90  74 /  10  20   5  10   5
Corsicana           70  89  71  91  72 /  20  30   5  20   5
Temple              69  88  71  91  74 /  40  40  10  20   5
Mineral Wells       67  89  70  92  72 /  30  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/30