Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261126 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR DURING THIS FORECAST. EXPECT SCT-BKN250
THIS MORNING...SOME CU AROUND KACT THIS AFTERNOON AND SCT250
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDFW COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR AND EAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS FOR KACT 20-01Z. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
A WEAK TUTT LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE RATHER DRY 1.25 INCH READING
RECORDED ON LAST NIGHT/S SOUNDING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE
TUTT LOW/AXIS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ALL
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AIRMASS THAT IS UNCAPPED AND
CONTAINS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE POPS OF 20 PERCENT ARE FORECAST.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH A 10 POP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS HIGH RESOLUTION AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE STILL SHOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ZONES AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

WHILE THE TUTT LOW...WHICH IS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE TEXAS COASTLINE IN THE NW GULF.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TO A
WARM-CORE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WILL TEND TO
CONSOLIDATE THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR ITS CENTER OVER THE NW GULF
WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE MOISTURE OVER NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER OUR CWA WILL DROP BACK BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMING OF TEMPS FROM
600-700MB WHICH SHOULD CAP OFF ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP. WILL SHOW JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND CIN
WEAKEST...AND A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND DUE TO CONTINUING WEAK COLD
ADVECTION IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS NOW DROPPING THROUGH NEVADA WILL BE OUR
PRIMARY RAIN MAKER. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING OUR REGION SATURDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAW THE RICH GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE INTO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES. RAIN WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INFLUX OF HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM CONVECTION BEING FORCED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTION.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BUT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM LOCATION TO
LOCATION DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN GOING OVER THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM UP SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES NOT BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THESE TEMPS WILL JUST BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  98  76  97 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              99  75  98  74  97 /  10  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             96  73  94  70  94 /  20  20   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            99  75  97  72  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  96  71  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            99  79  98  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           98  75  98  74  96 /  20  20   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  74  96 /  20  20   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  72  98  72  96 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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