Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 190859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
359 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The weak cold front that moved as far southeast as a Gainesville
to Mineral Wells to Cisco line yesterday before stalling this
evening has started to lift back to the north.

For the last several days we have had temperatures that have been
10 to over 15 degrees above seasonal normals. DFW has had three
days in a row with daily record high minimum temperatures and
on Monday Waco tied that daily record high minimum and then went
on to tie their record high for the date. Today will be the last
of the very warm days for a while across North and Central Texas
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

As a shortwave moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains today
a cold front will move southeastward. This front is expected to
enter the Bowie to Graham areas around sunset today and sweep
through the rest of the forecast area before daybreak Thursday.
Some thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front late this
afternoon and could affect areas as far south as a Graham and
Gainesville by sunset. Thunderstorm chances will increase across
across North Texas this evening with the best chances of rain
being along and north of the I-20 corridor. There will be a chance
of showers and thunderstorms area wide overnight as the front
continues to move through the forecast area. With MLCAPEs around
1500 J/KG and effective bulk shear around 30 knots...some strong
to borderline severe storms will be possible north of the I-20
corridor this evening. Rainfall totals for the event (including
Thursday) will range from less than 1/4 inch across much of
Central Texas to between 1/2 and 3/4 inch across the north.

As the shortwave moves off the east and the cold front moves
deeper into South Texas, rain chances will end from northwest to
southeast across most of the forecast area Thursday morning. A
few showers/thunderstorms could linger into Thursday afternoon
across the extreme southeast. It will be breezy and cooler
Thursday with highs in the 70s. Winds will decrease Thursday
evening and with mostly clear skies and drier air in place
overnight...lows will reach the more fall-like mid 40s to lower

A surface ridge will move across the region Friday allowing winds
to return to the south by Friday night. It will still be cool
Friday with highs once again in the 70s and lows Friday night
will be inthe upper 40s to mid 50s. An upper level ridge will
move across the region this weekend. This along with southerly
winds will allow for a warming trend.



/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR/IFR Ceiling potential Wednesday morning and
convective potential Late Wednesday into Thursday.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR is expected through most of the
pre-dawn hours before MVFR stratus, aided by a 30-35 knot LLJ,
invades from the Hill Country. Ceilings between FL015-FL025 should
prevail between 12 UTC and 17 UTC. The threat for IFR ceilings
remains very low across the Metroplex TAF sites as the better low
level moisture is expected to remain further to the south and
west. If deeper low level moisture lifts further northward than
expected, a few hours of IFR stratus will be possible. Regardless, SCT
to BKN CU around FL040 and southerly winds of around 12 knots
will return during the late morning into the afternoon. Most of
the afternoon hours appear dry across the Metroplex TAF sites,
though some isolated to scattered convection will be possible for
northwestern and northern arrival/departure gates. A shallow cold
front is expected to slip southward towards North TX late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. I have pushed back
the onset of VCTS by a couple of hours from the 00 UTC TAF given
the larger scale forcing will be displaced to the north and trends
in some hi-resolution model guidance. Cold FROPA will usher in
breezy northerly winds of around 15 knots with gusts to near 25
knots probable. Post-FROPA showers will be possible through
sunrise. Some of this activity may produce lightning and it`s
possible that the window for VCTS may needed to be expanded in
future TAFs. The window of opportunity for sub-VFR ceilings post-
FROPA are too slim to include in the TAF at this time, but will
monitor additional model output.

For the Waco TAF site---There is some hint in the latest
consensus of hi-resolution model guidance that the better MVFR/IFR
potential may be just west and north of the Waco TAF site. For
now, I`ll side with statistical guidance and the inherited TAFs
and advertise MVFR ceilings for a good portion of the early and
mid morning time frame on Wednesday. In addition, forecast
soundings in conjunction with statistical guidance suggests that
IFR ceilings are likely and I`ve included a mention of this
between 11 and 13 UTC. Thereafter, VFR will prevail through the
remainder of the 06 UTC TAF cycle for Waco. Cold FROPA looks to be
just outside of the current TAF cycle. As a result, the latest
TAFs will only reflect a slight veering of the surface winds with
the approach of the front.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  62  74  52  74 /   5  70  20   5   0
Waco                90  64  76  48  75 /   5  50  40   5   0
Paris               89  62  74  49  74 /   5  70  20   5   0
Denton              89  60  72  47  73 /  10  70  20   0   0
McKinney            89  61  74  49  73 /   5  70  20   5   0
Dallas              90  63  74  52  75 /   5  70  20   5   0
Terrell             89  62  74  50  75 /   5  70  30   5   0
Corsicana           90  66  75  51  76 /   5  50  40   5   0
Temple              91  65  76  50  75 /   5  50  40  10   0
Mineral Wells       88  59  74  46  74 /  10  70  20   5   0




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