Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211132
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
532 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.AVIATION...
The area of dense fog affecting much of East TX this morning
continues to shift eastward away from the TAF sites. This has
been due to a weak dry cold front which is making southeastward
progress through North TX. Visibilities are improving area-wide
thanks to this drier air and this trend will continue through the
next 1-3 hours. Clear skies will follow for the remainder of the
day.

The front is also causing a wind shift to the northwest at 10-15
kts which will persist through this evening. Wind speeds will
decrease tonight to less than 10 kts; they should become light
and variable after midnight as surface high pressure settles in
over Central TX, allowing airports to resume south flow
configurations. Southerly winds will resume on Wednesday morning
at 10 kts or less.

-Stalley

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/
Patchy areas of dense fog are occurring this morning mainly along
and east of Interstate 35 where soils are saturated from
yesterday`s rain, winds are light, and higher levels of low-level
moisture reside. The visibilities are varying at times and likely
will continue to vary through mid morning. A front is currently
moving into the northwestern counties of the CWA and will continue
steady progress southeast this morning. This front will help to
clear the fog as wind speeds behind the front will average 10-15
mph. Significantly drier and cooler air is not expected behind
this front and afternoon highs today will warm into the 70s.

Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week, but there
are still fire weather concerns despite the recent rainfall. The
upper level trough that brought yesterday`s storms and rain is
slowly drifting east over East Texas. Upper level ridging in the
wake of this trough will traverse the region on Wednesday followed
by zonal flow through the beginning of next week.

Temperatures will rapidly warm to well above normal on Wednesday
and Thursday as south to westerly winds return in the lower to
mid levels of the atmosphere. On Thursday, temperatures in our
western counties are expected to reach the upper 80s and near 90
degrees, while lower to mid 80s are expected elsewhere. DFW may
flirt with its record high of 86 on Thursday (Feb 23rd), but Waco
looks to remain below their record high for Feb 23rd of 89
degrees. Wind speeds will also be breezy and gusty on Thursday in
response to a deepening surface low moving through Kansas. The
combination of warm temperatures, breezy winds and low humidity
values will likely result in at least an elevated fire weather
threat west of Interstate 35 Thursday afternoon. We will have to
consult our partners at the Forestry Service for input on how the
fuels in that area respond after the recent rain, to fully gage
the fire weather threat.

The above mentioned surface low will be associated with a fast
moving upper level trough moving through the Plains. The track of
this system remains north of our area, but will drag a dryline
through our area on Friday, followed by a cold front Friday night.
The chance for rain with this system still looks very minimal as
the dryline quickly moves through the area spreading dry air
across the region. However, it`s not entirely out of question that
we see some drizzle late Thursday night and Friday morning in our
eastern counties ahead of the dryline. Temperatures will briefly
cool on Saturday before starting to warm again in advance of the
next system.

Our next chance for rain returns next week. By Monday, another
upper level trough will be moving into the West Coast. Southerly
winds will return across North and Central Texas, spreading
increasing moisture and warm air across the region. A combination
of warm air advection and isentropic lift may result in a few
showers in our eastern counties on Monday. However, there is some
indication by the ECMWF and GFS that storms may develop along a
dryline to our west Monday afternoon as the nose of a strong upper
level jet crosses the region ahead of the upper level trough.
This same scenario may repeat again on Tuesday as the upper level
trough continues to approach from the west with a higher potential
for rain on Wednesday as the upper level trough moves through the
Southern Plains.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  48  80  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                75  46  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               72  49  77  53  82 /   5   0   0   0   5
Denton              73  44  79  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            73  45  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              75  49  80  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             73  49  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           73  50  79  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              75  47  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       75  44  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ093>095-
104>107-119>123-133>135-145>148-159>162-175.

&&

$$

26/82


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