Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201743
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The extensive low clouds continue to erode late this morning and
have cleared all of the major airports with the exception of Waco.
A gradual scattering over the next hour or so is expected there
with VFR conditions prevailing the rest of the afternoon. There
are still extensive IFR cigs/vis just east of the major airports
and while some scattering is expected, much of the low moisture
will remain in place. Expect another round of low clouds tonight
as moisture spills back westward ahead of a strong upper
disturbance. We`ll have conditions deteriorating again after dark
with MVFR cigs by 02Z at the major airports and some IFR cigs
later during the overnight and early Sunday morning hours.

As the strong upper trough gets closer tomorrow, a Pacific cold
front will begin to race eastward. Winds will become more
southwesterly during the morning hours and cigs/vis will begin to
improve. Scattered showers are likely to develop around midday
near the I-35 corridor and we`ll keep the VCSH in for DFW/DAL/GKY
with the expectation that deeper convection will get going farther
east during the afternoon hours. This is not likely to directly
impact the airports but will have an impact on eastbound
departures/arrivals. Winds will become west-southwest behind the
Pacific front and more westerly into late Sunday night/Monday
morning.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/
/Today through Sunday/

Low level warm moist/advection will continue today as a surface
low continues to intensify across the Central High Plains in
response to an approaching West Coast upper trough. Extensive low
cloudiness and patchy drizzle/fog early this morning will begin
to dissipate before midday as drier air just above the surface
works in from the west and mixes down. A few warm air advection
showers will be possible across the east where the clouds will
linger the longest but the chance for measurable rainfall will be
low.

Temperatures today will be quite mild for late January with mainly
upper 60s and lower 70s. The only exception will be in the east
where mid 60s will be more common due to less sun.

The weather pattern will be similar tonight with continued low
level warm air advection and the return of low clouds and a few
showers. It may be a bit more breezy overnight as some higher
momentum air from a 40 knot low level jet mixes down. The cloudy
and breezy conditions will keep mild temperatures in place with
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

Large scale lift will increase on Sunday as a closed upper low
moves from the Four Corners toward the Central Plains. This will
result in scattered warm air advection showers Sunday morning
ahead of an approaching dryline and cold front. The dryline will
march across region Sunday afternoon and provide an additional
source of lift for showers and thunderstorms. Locations east of
I-35 will have the best instability, deepest moisture, and
therefore the highest chances for thunderstorms. A few storms may
become strong to marginally severe with damaging winds being the
primary hazard. Rainfall amounts will be light (generally less
than 1/4 inch) due to the fast movement of the dryline.

Windy, warm and dry conditions will move in quickly behind the
dryline and result in an increasing fire threat across the western
zones Sunday afternoon. Locations west of a line from Gainesville
to Weatherford to Hamilton will see the highest threat due to
afternoon relative humidities below 30 percent, gusty southwest
winds between 20 and 25 mph, and temperatures in the lower 70s.
Therefore, we will continue with a Fire Weather Watch from late
morning Sunday through Sunday evening.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/
The weekend rain event will come to an end Sunday night as a
Pacific front overtakes the dryline, pushing the rich low-level
moisture to the east. Unlike with the previous cold front, the
source region for this postfrontal air mass is not as far from
our latitude. A cP front will dive into the Central Plains on
Sunday, but the surface cyclogenesis that will result along it (in
response to the upper low advancing out of the Rockies) will
prevent much of the continental air from reaching the Southern
Plains. In addition, the meager cold advection on Monday will be
somewhat offset by abundant sunshine and a marked downslope
component to the postfrontal winds. As a result, Monday afternoon
temperatures, though undeniably cooler than Sunday`s, should still
reach seasonal normals.

Although a few outlying/low-lying locations in the north and west
may see a light freeze both Tuesday and Wednesday morning, the
vast majority of North and Central Texas will likely remain
above freezing throughout the upcoming week. Mainly zonal flow
will dominate next week, and with no significant low-level warm
advection until late in the week, the warming trend will be slow.
Once southerly flow returns in earnest, clouds and drizzle/
sprinkles Friday may prevent temperatures from reaching the 70s
again before another cold front arrives next weekend.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  57  73  42  60 /   5  20  40  10   0
Waco                68  57  71  41  61 /  10  20  50  20   0
Paris               62  55  68  41  55 /  20  20  60  60   0
Denton              68  54  72  39  58 /   5  10  30  10   0
McKinney            65  55  71  40  57 /  10  20  50  10   0
Dallas              68  57  71  42  59 /  10  20  40  10   0
Terrell             66  57  71  42  58 /  10  20  60  30   0
Corsicana           66  57  71  42  59 /  20  20  60  30   0
Temple              68  56  72  40  62 /  10  20  50  20   0
Mineral Wells       72  51  72  37  59 /   5   5  20   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.

&&

$$



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