Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150811
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Saturday/

A cold front continues to slowly trudge southeast toward I-20/30
corridors and the DFW Metroplex during the early predawn hours of
this Friday morning. Low level warm advection is in play and
indicative of the 20-35 kts southwesterly flow noted on regional
radar VWPs is feeding into the top of the initial and very shallow
frontal inversion. Unfortunately, outside of minimal low level
cold advection upstream of the cold front as the main fuel to
move it along, flow from the boundary layer up through jet level
at 300mb is southwesterly.

The gradually increasing and approaching mid level height falls
and paralleling flow aloft juxtaposed over the slow- moving cold
front is never a good recipe nocturnally. The cold front`s snail
pace movement and the pulse-like nature of the storms has me a
little nervous regarding a training scenario known to cause
flooding issues in urban areas. Right now, the hail and flooding
is my main concern, then of course lightning strikes as we move
into the early part of the Friday morning rush hour. I expected
the northwest half of the DFW Metroplex will feel these impacts
through daybreak, then ease into the southeast parts of the Metro
and gradually into northern Central Texas later in the morning.
Gusty northerly winds 15 to 20 mph will arrive shortly after
frontal passage across any one area today. The brisk north winds,
expansive cloud cover, and periodic heavy downpours will keep high
temperatures this afternoon behind the front mostly in the  mid
to upper 60s, whereas a later arrival across eastern Central Texas
will likely bode for a longer residence time of breezy southerly
winds and humidity through mid to late afternoon before frontal
passage. Highs here should easily make it into the lower to mid
70s.

In addition, CAPE within the hail growth zones is 500-600mb with
overall MUCAPE between 1000-1200 J/KG. Combined with modestly
steep mid level lapse rates between 7-7.5 deg C/km is resulting in
mainly sub-severe hail to nickel size when updrafts increase.
Though 90% of this activity should remain sub-severe, I can`t rule
out a low end, severe hail criteria of quarters/half dollars
through the morning hours as the axis of storms eases
southeastward. In addition, we`ll continue monitoring the
hydrologic threat and impacts of this linear cluster of storms.
Pockets of locally heavy rainfall and any training of convection
will bring along some uneasiness as it shunts southeast over the
heart of the DFW Metro and surrounding suburbs during the morning
rush hour. Though the slow progression southward should limit any
flash flood risk, we`ll likely see a few areas that experience
extensive street flooding at times that could really pose some
commuting issues through daybreak this Friday morning.

Fortunately, the lead impulse aloft and cold front responsible for
this weather dilemma will exit the area with cool and more
subsident weather later this evening through daybreak Saturday.
The next impulse arrives from northeast Mexico (a sign of a
strong southern branch of the upper jet and ongoing, seasonal
stronger El Nino) will ramp up the rain and thunder chances across
mainly western North and Central Texas early Saturday morning,
then spreading across the entire area Saturday afternoon. Any
storms will be primarily embedded and elevated considering the
cool and cloudy conditions well behind today`s cold front.
Instability aloft looks much better south of the area, though a
few strong storms with small hail and brief torrential rainfall
will impact the region. The richest atmospheric moisture will be
contained across Central Texas, particularly south of Hwy 84 where
an excessive rainfall outlook from SPC will be marginal to
possible slight across the I-14/Hwy 190 corridor toward Highway 6
and I-45.

The cloudy/rainy conditions and occasionally gusty northerly winds
will make for a damp and cool weekend with diurnal ranges of only
5 to 10 degrees expected. I did undercut NBM temperatures
diurnally for afternoon high temperatures, but remain close on low
temperatures. After lows in the 40s and 50s Saturday morning,
highs will only slowly warm into the mid 50s and lower 60s west of
I-35, and in the mid to upper 60s across the Lower Brazos/Trinity
River Valleys into East Texas.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

An upstream cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will maintain
unsettled weather until its eventual ejection through the Southern
Plains late next week. While the bulk of the rainfall will be
through this weekend, unseasonably cloudy conditions and periodic
rain chances will persist next week.

After a series of sunny and pleasant weekends, the final weekend
of astronomical winter won`t be the best for outdoor activities.
Saturday will be quite wet as overrunning moisture feeds a passing
disturbance. Widespread showers and embedded storms will spread
southwest to northeast across the region during the daylight hours
and into Saturday evening. Adequate cell motion will limit
residence time, but positive precipitable water anomalies will
enhance precipitation efficiency. Rainfall totals Saturday are not
expected to be extraordinary, but following previous rounds of
heavy rainfall on Thursday and Friday, some flooding issues could
arise.

A reinforcing front will arrive on Sunday, providing yet another
chance for showers and storms. The dry advection will invade from
the northeast, keeping the better rain chances from the Big
Country into Central Texas. A lone rain-free day will follow on
Monday during which the sun should re-emerge. Rain chances will
steadily increase thereafter, culminating on Thursday when the
decaying trough upstream finally ejects, tracking directly
overhead.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

FROPA should slowly march through the DFW D10 through 12z with
gusty N winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. Periods of -RA/-SHRA
with embedded TS this morning will keep air traffic flow somewhat
limited through 18z. -RA/VCTS will ease up by/after 19z-21z, as
the first lead disturbance and FROPA exit the D10 and Waco areas.
However, brisk N winds 10 to 15 kts with gusty =>20 kts continue
beyond 00z Saturday.

VFR cigs prevail through 15z, before a gradual fall into high MVFR
early, then low MVFR BLO 2 kft through 20z, before the frontal
inversion deepens enough for cigs to rise above 2 kft. This is
crucial for DFW airports with ongoing construction to the main N-S
runways.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  55  65  55  69 /  50  20  70  40  20
Waco                70  58  65  58  68 /  90  30  80  50  30
Paris               68  51  67  53  68 /  30  10  20  30  10
Denton              66  52  64  51  68 /  40  10  60  30  10
McKinney            68  52  66  53  68 /  40  20  50  40  10
Dallas              68  56  66  56  69 /  50  20  60  40  10
Terrell             69  55  66  55  68 /  50  20  50  50  10
Corsicana           70  58  69  59  71 /  90  30  60  60  20
Temple              72  57  67  57  68 /  90  30  90  60  40
Mineral Wells       67  50  63  51  68 /  60  20  80  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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