Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 010255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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