Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211812 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
112 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM TIMING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRST CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN
AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE TWO
OF NOTE... (1) A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
THE RED RIVER AND (2) A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR JACKSBORO TO
NEAR CLEBURNE. EXPECT THE RED RIVER FOCUS WILL BE THE FIRST TO
GO...WITH STORM MOTION NEARLY DUE EAST. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. STORMS WILL NOT
LINGER AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE 6-HOUR
VCTS GROUPS...WHICH WILL BE MORE PRECISELY DEFINED ONCE INITIATION
BEGINS. ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE GREATER THAN THE OPPOSING
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC FORCING. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION AND STORM FORMATION WILL BE AIDED BY
WEST TO EAST CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGES
NECESSARY WILL BE SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND
WIND.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JACKSBORO
TO MUENSTER AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP...EXPECT TO SEE A RESPITE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR
SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE BY 7 PM /00Z/. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND 25 TO 30
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO OR
TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHEAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ALSO LEFT 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  61  82  60  85 /  60  50   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  61  83  59  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  79  56  81 /  70  60   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            80  57  81  57  83 /  50  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  58  81  57  83 /  60  50   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  61  82  61  86 /  60  50   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           79  60  81  59  84 /  60  60   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  62  83  59  85 /  40  60  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  61  82  60  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  57  82  57  85 /  30  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79





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