Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181536 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1036 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV ROTATING EAST
OF SAN ANGELO WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF A CISCO
TO COMANCHE LINE. NORTH TEXAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
ASCENT AS NOTED IN MORE TOWERING MID LEVEL CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR TODAY WILL BE THE REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
THAT SURGES OUTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THIS
OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDING A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL RAISE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA IS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DURING THE MORNING
PUSH. A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FOCUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF METROPLEX TAF SITES.

WACO...
THE PUBLIC FORECAST CARRIES A POP OF 40 PERCENT FOR WACO...BUT
WITH THE NATURE OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...UNABLE TO
PINPOINT A NARROW WINDOW FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE. WILL FORGO ITS
INCLUSION NOW.

25


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  50  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             97  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            97  74  99  74  98 /  30  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  74  97  74  97 /  30  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  40  20   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  40  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  99  73  97 /  30  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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