Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201831
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
131 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and southerly winds in the 6 to 10 kt range will
continue to prevail for all the TAF sites through the forecast
period with scattered mid-to-high level clouds. The latest high
resolution model guidance shows some short lived isolated showers
developing across the Metroplex around 20-22Z, likely due to the
growth of cumulus clouds in areas where there is plenty of
moisture. However, the potential for showers to develop is too low
for it to be mentioned in the TAF.

For tomorrow morning, MVFR stratus will likely develop in the
Hill Country, but it is not expected to reach the KACT TAF site.

Sanchez

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Upper ridging will strengthen across the region today ahead of a
westward moving upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This should
result in a hot but mostly dry day across North Texas with high
temperatures near 100 degrees and rain chances generally less than
10%. A little better mixing of the low levels is expected this
afternoon which should result in dewpoints falling into the mid to
upper 60s. The only exception will be across our far eastern
counties where the best moisture will be located today. This is
where we`ll have some low PoPs this afternoon for isolated
thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, any convection could produce
some gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise,
most areas will stay mostly sunny today. With slightly drier air
near the surface, heat indices will generally range between
102-105 degrees, so no heat advisory is needed for today. Any
isolated convection will diminish by this evening with mostly
clear skies expected overnight.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/
/Monday through Saturday/

Monday should feature generally tranquil weather as North and
Central Texas remains sandwiched between two primary high
centers. Residual low-level moisture present across our far
eastern and southeastern counties may be sufficient to allow a
couple showers/storms to bubble with the peak heating of the day.
Heat indices once again appear too marginal and limited in areal
extent to justify a Heat Advisory at this time, but pockets of
104-106 degree readings are possible. For those hoping to get a
glimpse of the partial eclipse during the early afternoon (with
the aid of proper eye protection, of course), mother nature looks
to cooperate as just spotty daytime cumulus dots the sky.

Attention on Tuesday will begin to shift to the north, as a cold
front slides into Oklahoma. While pressure rises and cold
advection behind this front don`t look to be overly impressive,
guidance continues to suggest that plentiful thunderstorm coverage
and associated cold pool amalgamation may help drive this boundary
across the Red River as early as Tuesday evening. On the flip
slide, the GFS and its associated ensemble guidance continues to
be the laggard of the global guidance, introducing the front to
our northern counties on Wednesday night. Considering the
consistency shown by the ECMWF, CMC, and now backed up by the NAM,
we`ve introduced chance PoPs north of I-20 Tuesday evening, and
likely PoPs near the Red River overnight as activity leaks south
of the state line. The overall threat for severe weather during
this time frame appears low right now given pretty lazy mid-
tropospheric flow (20 kts or less) and a lack of better mid-level
lapse rates.

We`ll continue chance PoPs across much of North and Central Texas
into Thursday, but it appears that dry air will persistently work
its way in from the north and east through this period, which may
temporarily bring precip chances to an end across our northern
counties Thursday night.

Overall, rainfall totals during the Tuesday night through
Thursday night portion of the forecast aren`t exceptionally high,
and this seems to be tied to a lack of more widespread and focused
forcing aloft. It`s possible that ripples embedded within the
northwesterly flow act to locally enhance storm coverage--and
therefore precipitation amounts--but any hope of capturing these
finer-scale details at this range is wishful thinking. Given weak
steering flow and high moisture quality/content, individual
storms will certainly be capable of laying down impressive
rainfall rates, but their coverage looks to remain isolated enough
to temper the overall flood risk. Record summertime rainfall
amounts across our northeastern counties means locations north and
east of the Metroplex will remain the most vulnerable to
additional deluges, however, and this is something we`ll keep in
mind over the coming days.

The highest precipitation chances (30-40%) will migrate generally
west of the I-35 corridor towards week`s end as drier air
continues to spill in from the northeast. Thanks to the increased
cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures by Thursday will
be pretty refreshing. Have indicated highs in the mid to upper
80s across most of the region, but if widespread storms and cloud
cover persist through the day, these may even be a touch too warm.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  79  97  78  96 /  10   5  10  10   5
Waco                99  76  98  76  98 /   5   5  10  10   5
Paris               95  75  93  74  93 /  10   5  20  10  10
Denton              97  76  95  76  95 /  10   5  10   5  10
McKinney            98  73  95  75  95 /  10   5  10  10  10
Dallas              99  79  97  79  96 /  10   5  10  10   5
Terrell             97  74  96  75  96 /  10   5  10  10   5
Corsicana           98  76  97  76  97 /  10   5  10  10   5
Temple              99  75  98  75  98 /   5   5  10  10   5
Mineral Wells       97  74  96  75  95 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

17/26/58


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