Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 281750 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...MAINTAINING NORTH FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH IN THIS FLOW...BUT WILL FIND UNSEASONABLY DRY
AIR BENEATH THEM. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (10-20KFT AGL) WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
UNABLE TO COMPLETE A VOYAGE THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

A SHALLOW FRONT HAS INVADED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ATTENDANT
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD TO PROPEL OUTFLOW INTO THE DFW TRACON.
WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA. EARLY SATURDAY
DEPARTURES TO THE NORTH MAY BE DISRUPTED...BUT METROPLEX TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
AMARILLO TX TO NEAR ENID OK AND INTO E-CENTRAL KS. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL PROGRESS ESE TOWARD SOUTHERN OK AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TO A CHILDRESS
TX TO NEAR OKC LINE THIS EVENING. A QUICK CHECK OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL BE ELEVATED AND ABOVE 700 MB WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
AN ASSIST FROM THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE MORE EAST THAN SOUTH DUE TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE TAIL END OF FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP INTO THE RED RIVER BUT REMAIN NORTH OF
I-20 TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE
VERY HIGH-BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION...WEAK INSTABILITY AND BEST
FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
AFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
380 LATER IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OR POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED HEAT BURST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY HOT TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   5  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05


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