Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

A thunderstorm complex, associated with an approaching shortwave,
is currently impacting the Concho Valley. Rain (with isolated
lightning strikes) from the downstream anvil has reached the
western edge of our CWA. As the upper impulse continues to east,
showers and thunderstorms will spread across North and Central
Texas today. Despite maritime tropical dew points at the surface,
and the instability they portend, the activity this morning will
be elevated. The lapse rates aloft will not be extraordinary and
expect the morning storms will primarily pose a lightning threat.

The 00Z sounding from Fort Worth showed that a formidable cap
remained. Even in our western zones, where the sun pushed
temperatures over 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon with dew points
were in the mid 70s, the cumulus field proved that the inhibition
was as widespread as it was strong. The lift associated with the
initial shortwave today should weaken the inversion to some extent
today, but morning rainfall will likely yield a cooler boundary
layer that is equally unable to overcome it. As a result, the
showers and thunderstorms will likely remain elevated into the
afternoon hours. Short-range guidance is literally all over the
map with respect to the location of the elevated convection this
afternoon, but expect the bulk of the forcing with be in areas
east of the I-35 corridor during the latter half of the day. Some
surface-based (potentially severe) convection will be possible
this afternoon mainly west of I-35, particularly those areas that
remain largely free of precipitation this morning. SBCAPE values
in our western zones should be less than the eye-popping numbers
we saw yesterday but could still yield very strong updrafts
supportive of large hail and damaging downbursts.

With the main upper trough still upstream, it is unlikely this
passing shortwave will veer or intensify the flow beneath it. This
means that the dryline will likely remain across West Texas,
perhaps even farther west than it was Wednesday afternoon.
Regardless of its position, there should be little if any
downglide in the wake of the departing impulse, and the dryline
may again be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon.
This activity would likely maintain its intensity into the evening
hours as it approaches our western zones. These storms would pose
a significant severe threat with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. This activity may congeal into a complex that would
reach the I-35 corridor after midnight. Although the intensity may
steadily diminish overnight, there would still be a continued
hail/wind threat into the morning commute across our eastern

The main upper trough will emerge from the high terrain of the
southern Rockies on Friday, dragging its final and most intense
spoke of lift across Texas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will impact North and Central Texas, with primarily a heavy rain
and flooding threat. However, with considerable instability still
in place, some strong/severe storms will be possible. One of the
favored areas will be Central Texas, the convection within which
may consume the bulk of the moisture flux. Another favored area
will be our western zones, which may see enough sunshine to allow
for surface-based thunderstorms late in the day. In addition,
dryline convection may enter our northwest zones late in the
afternoon or into Friday evening.

Although oppressive humidity will remain on Saturday, North and
Central Texas may experience a rare sunny afternoon, particularly
in areas along and west of the I-35 corridor. But while you`re
at the pool, the next upper trough will be deepening on the West
Coast. Rain chances will increase late Sunday into Memorial Day,
and the unsettled pattern looks to continue throughout the
upcoming week.



/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Return of MVFR ceilings this morning with convective
activity possible through the day.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---Patchy MVFR ceilings located to the
west of the Metroplex TAF sites should slowly creep eastward with
time. Stratus should remain in the FL015-FL025 range through at
least mid-morning today. As mentioned in the 00 UTC Aviation AFD...IFR
ceilings appear unlikely due to nocturnal mixing. Some patchy BR
will also be possible, especially at some of the more rural
Metroplex TAF sites as well. The other concern will be the
potential for VCSH and VCTS through the day on Thursday. VCSH
still appears possible mid to late morning Thursday with perhaps a
brief lull during the afternoon hours. The better threat for VCTS
appears towards the 00 UTC time frame for several hours as the
main trough lifts out into the area.

DFW Extended---The threat for TS is expected to continue after 00
UTC Friday. Thereafter, a return to MVFR cigs with the continued
threat for -SHRA will continue. Additional periods of TS may be
possible after 04 UTC, but confidence is too low to include in the
TAF at this time.

For the Waco TAF site---MVFR stratus will gradually overspread
the Waco TAF site. Similar to the Metroplex TAF sites...IFR
conditions are not expected due to the increased winds this
morning. VCSH is expected during the mid morning hours. As the
upper trough approaches, more vigorous lift should result in the
generation of widespread showers and thunderstorms during the mid
to late afternoon hours. Thereafter---primarily VCSH is expected.
The chance for VCTS after 02 UTC does exist, but remains too low
to continue during this time. Additional TAFs will address this
potential, however.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  70  82  70  89 /  60  60  70  40  20
Waco                83  72  84  70  90 /  70  60  70  40  20
Paris               81  69  78  68  85 /  60  70  80  60  30
Denton              83  69  82  67  88 /  60  70  70  30  20
McKinney            82  70  81  67  86 /  60  60  80  40  20
Dallas              84  70  83  71  89 /  60  60  70  40  20
Terrell             83  72  82  70  88 /  60  60  80  50  20
Corsicana           82  71  81  70  88 /  60  60  80  50  30
Temple              82  72  84  71  89 /  70  60  70  40  30
Mineral Wells       82  68  85  65  89 /  60  70  70  20  10


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