Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 291644
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
NEAR TERMINAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. A DISTINCT VORT MAX ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSPS. THIS FEATURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
EAST...PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BEGINNING 21-22Z. SINCE
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT WORKED OVER BY MORNING
CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. WE WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE VCTS IN THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX FROM 22Z UNTIL 02-03Z...AND LIKELY INCLUDE KACT AS
WELL. A TEMPO GROUP MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED LATER IF CURRENT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING REDEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRENDS LEAN TO A
MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES AFTER O3Z/10 PM THIS EVENING. 30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/
AN AREA OF CONVECTION...NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE
AT THIS WRITING...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE
AND MOST OF IT SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE MORNING. IF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES BEYOND MID MORNING...THEN IT WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SPLIT AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...WE ARE EXPECTING DIURNAL
HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO CAPES AROUND 1800 J/KG AND LI/S OF MINUS 3 TO 5. DOWNBURST
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20...ESPECIALLY THE RED RIVER COUNTIES...WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RECEIVING A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (1/2 INCH OR MORE) TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE SOME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY BE TOTALLY
MISSED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IF IT LASTS THROUGH MIDDAY. CURRENTLY...HAVE A RANGE
OF 92 TO 95 ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS 90 TO 96 ON SATURDAY AND 92 TO
98 ON SUNDAY. WE/LL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AREAWIDE ON
SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. POPS WILL BE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES WEST TO
EAST.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL RE-CONNECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  94  77  96 /  70  40  30  10  10
WACO, TX              95  74  94  76  96 /  80  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             92  72  90  72  92 /  70  50  30  10  20
DENTON, TX            94  74  94  75  97 /  60  40  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  92  74  95 /  60  40  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            94  77  93  77  96 /  70  40  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  75  92  74  94 /  70  40  30  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  75  93  74  94 /  80  30  40  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            94  74  93  74  96 /  80  30  30  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  95  73  97 /  40  40  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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