Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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335
FXUS64 KFWD 220927
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As shortwave ridging aloft moves across the region today, quiet
and warm weather will occur with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. South to west winds in the lower to mid levels of the
atmosphere will reestablish today and tonight in response to
another upper level trough that will quickly move into the Western
CONUS. Tonight will be a warmer night with lows mostly in the
50s, but a few rural locations may dip into the upper 40s.

As the upper level trough moves into the Intermountain West, a lee-
side low will develop and strengthen, moving east into Kansas
tomorrow. Our surface winds will respond on Thursday increasing to
15-20 mph with higher gusts. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be in
the mid to upper 80s with some locations west of Interstate 35
reaching 90-92 degrees. The current forecast of 87 degrees at DFW
would be a new record high for the day, breaking the current
record of 86 degrees set in 1933. Waco`s record high for Thursday
is 89 degrees set in 1996, and the current forecast is for a high
temperature below that record.

In addition to record or near-record temperatures on Thursday,
fire concerns increase west of Interstate 35/35W due to the warm
temperatures, breezy winds and humidity values in the teens and
lower 20s. Recent rainfall in part of that area will likely temper
some of the fire weather concerns, but there are still some areas
that did not receive quite as much rainfall where any fires that
start may be able to quickly spread.

As the upper level trough crosses the Plains on Friday, it will
send a cold front into North and Central Texas. A dryline/front
will cross the region on Friday with a reinforcing shot of cooler
air Friday night. We are still expecting dry weather with this
front, and some fire weather concerns may exist on Friday. Breezy
northwest winds near 15 mph will be behind the initial
dryline/front but there will be some cooler air starting to filter
in with this initial push. However, humidity values will be below
30 percent and this raises some fire weather concerns.

Cooler temperatures are expected Friday night and Saturday, and
some locations in our northwest may approach the freezing mark
early Saturday morning. If freezing temperatures do occur, they
should exist only for a short window near sunrise. South winds
return on Sunday in advance of the next upper level system and a
warming trend quickly returns heading into next week.

Next week`s system will be one to watch as the set-up may favor a
chance for severe weather across part of the region. Currently the
latest model guidance does not indicate much of a severe weather
threat, and there are enough differences between the models to
keep the rain chances and severe weather threat low at this time,
but the pattern bears watching. Moisture will quickly return
across the region starting Sunday with dewpoints in the 50s and
60s surging north. This will set up a dryline to our west that
will mostly remain to our west for the next few days. However,
each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, it will have the potential to
wander close to our western counties. The lift with the upper
level system won`t reach the region until Tuesday, and then the
upper level system is expected to drive the dryline and a front
through our region Tuesday night. With this system being nearly a
week out, the timing and chances for rain and/or severe weather
could change, and for now will maintain low PoPs on Monday across
the eastern half of the region, and then spread PoPs across the
region Monday night through Tuesday night.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR.

VFR is expected to prevail through the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle.
Surface low pressure continues to slide eastward through the Ark-
La-Miss this evening and in response, winds have become light and
westerly. A period of variable winds will be possible through
sunrise, but for brevity, I`ve omitted from the TAFs. The light
winds should allow area terminals to start out in a south flow on
Wednesday morning. A few high clouds should invade from the west
and northwest. Surface winds will continue to back towards the
south and southeast through the day on Wednesday with speeds
approaching 10 knots as surface troughing to the north intensifies.
Winds will diminish Wednesday evening at the surface, while
increasing aloft. This may result in some minor concern for non-
convective LLWS, but overall, the potential appears low at this
time.

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  54  87  54  67 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                82  51  84  53  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               78  53  84  52  69 /   0   0   0   5   5
Denton              81  50  87  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            80  52  86  52  67 /   0   0   0   5   5
Dallas              82  56  87  56  68 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             80  54  84  55  69 /   0   0   0   5   5
Corsicana           80  55  85  56  72 /   0   0   0   5  10
Temple              83  51  85  54  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       84  50  89  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/82



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