Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010825
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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