Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 262334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
634 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A shortwave trough working its way southeast across the ARKLATEX
region is producing thunderstorms over Southeast OK and Northeast
TX this evening. A few strong cells are crossing the Red River are
currently affecting northeast gates and north routes and may
briefly affect the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex in a few hours
before dissipating. Chances are that these storms will weaken
below severe limits by the time they arrive in the Dallas-Fort
Worth area, but may still produce some gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning in the 9 PM to midnight timeframe. The other
possibility is that they go ahead and fall apart before making it
this far south. Either way, activity will come to an end around
midnight local after the loss of surface heating and the upper
level support shifts east into the Mississippi Valley. For the
rest of the night, the only other concern will likely be MVFR
stratus in the Waco area around sunrise.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
Near and short term convective trends are the biggest challenge
with regards to the forecast. Thereafter, dry and unseasonably
warm conditions are expected through the remainder of the current
work week and into the weekend. Low rain chances return to the
region next week with a continuation of above average

Regional radar imagery shows convection across East Central
Oklahoma this afternoon. The convection is associated with lift
along a slow moving cold front and a shortwave trough that were
both sliding towards the south and east. Hi-resolution model
guidance has waffled a bit with the 19 UTC HRRR less aggressive
than previous runs. The latest TTU WRF has also shown a lower
areal coverage of convection. That being said, mesoanalysis
indicates that the airmass ahead of the cluster of storms
remains unstable and it`s possible that a few more clusters of
storms could develop across southeast OK and adjacent portions of
North TX. As a result, I`ll maintain highest PoPs across far
northeastern zones and I have tapered them downward towards the
south and west. I went ahead and pulled PoPs from Central TX for
tonight as it appears that the threat for nocturnal convection
should be largely diminished as the shortwave trough exits to the
east and southeast and the cold front remains to the north in
Oklahoma. Overall, the threat for widespread severe weather across
North TX appears LOW at this time as deep layer shear and
instability are marginal. There will be a threat for some strong
wind gusts and/or near-severe hail, but this threat should be
largely mitigated as the best shear and cooler air aloft (thus
instability) remain further to the north and east. Most activity
should diminish later tonight.

The next concern will be during the overnight and early Thursday
morning time periods where a potential for patchy fog exists. The
two main areas for patchy fog will be along the Red River and
across Central TX. The threat for patchy fog along the Red River
is a bit more conditional and dependent on the coverage of storms.
Right now, I`ll mention patchy fog along our northern tier of
counties where the best rain chances are forecast. Assuming rain
falls and skies clear, the light winds should support a threat for
patchy fog. If the coverage of storms is much smaller, the threat
for patchy fog may be a little overstated in the current forecast.
Farther to the south and east, clear skies and light winds should
foster a greater potential for the development of some patchy fog.

A warming trend can be expected through the weekend as an H5
ridge centers itself across the Big Country and eventually towards the
Red River. Friday appears breezy and warm as southwest winds
should help temperatures to rise well above normal values. Most
areas should experience afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. A similar story is expected from Saturday through
Monday. There may be some passing high clouds as a weak shortwave
trough travels around the northern periphery of the H5 ridge as
well as the diurnal build up of afternoon cumulus.

Rain chances return to the forecast next week as low level
moisture streams northward in response to lee-side cyclogenesis.
I`ve not made too many drastic changes to the long term portion of
the forecast, but low rain chances for a majority of North and
Central TX appear reasonable. With most of the strong synoptic
forcing to the north, it`s likely that this convection will be
diurnal in nature.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  86  64  87  65 /  30   5   5   0   0
Waco                62  86  58  87  60 /  10   5   5   0   0
Paris               58  83  60  85  61 /  50   5   5   0   5
Denton              61  84  60  86  62 /  30   5   5   0   0
McKinney            60  84  61  85  63 /  40   5   5   0   0
Dallas              63  86  64  87  65 /  30   5   5   0   0
Terrell             62  84  60  87  62 /  30   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           62  85  60  87  62 /  10   5   5   0   0
Temple              62  85  59  87  60 /  10   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       61  86  60  87  60 /  20   5   5   0   0




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