Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182035
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
FIRST WAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND HELPED FIRE OFF
SOME SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DENTON SOUTHEAST TO CANTON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW SPREADING
SOUTH OUT OF THEM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO WACO AND SOUTHEAST OF THERE. THIS APPEARS TO
BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES AND IS ACTUALLY
REFLECTED WEAKLY AT 850MB AND 700MB. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN
THIS VERY MOIST UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SMALLER CLUSTERS WILL TEND
TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE FASTER THAN SURROUNDING STORMS. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND OTHERS MISSING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THIS...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA BUT WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANT UPPER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FLARE UP OF CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WILL
HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...HAVE RETAINED MVFR CIGS FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BREAKS UP A BIT.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS PRODUCED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUBTLE LIFT FROM A WEAK
WAVE ALOFT SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR ALL METROPLEX TAFS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
VCTS GROUP ACROSS THE METROPLEX AT THIS TIME. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP AS WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 12 UTC...LATER TAFS MAY NEED TO ADJUST ONSET
AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS HOWEVER.

FOR THE WACO TAF...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT VICINITY THUNDER WITH A
TEMPO GROUP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  91  74  92  74 /  20  20  10  30  20
WACO, TX              70  89  72  91  73 /  50  30  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             68  89  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  90  71  91  72 /  20  10  10  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  90  69  90  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  74  91  74 /  20  20  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           70  89  71  91  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  90  71  91  72 /  30  20  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  88  72  90  72 /  70  40  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  89  72  88  71 /  40  30  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ141>143-
156>162-174-175.

&&

$$





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