Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 050824
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK SYNOPSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...WHILE ONE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND ANOTHER LIFTING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LEE TROUGH WAS ANCHORED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. NO RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIMILARLY...THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN
MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THIS
PERIOD HELPING TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION DEFLECTED EAST OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST...INTENSIFYING AND SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 595 DECAMETERS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SUNNY...HOT
AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN THE HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND HELPS
RETROGRADE THE STRONG UPPER HIGH BACK WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK NORTH FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES LATER
NEXT WEEK...WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR JUST THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY AND EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEW
CRITERIA THIS PAST YEAR STATES AN AMBIENT HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103
DEGREES AND/OR HEAT INDEX OF VALUE OF 105 DEGREES FOR TWO
CONSECUTIVE DAYS IS REQUIRED WITH NO LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
REQUIREMENT. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS HEATWAVE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY AREAS. THOUGH THE NEW
ADVISORY ON EXTENDS THROUGH SATURDAY...IT IS LIKELY THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH D/FW AND WACO DO NOT LOOK TO BE IN
JEOPARDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT RECORDS GENERALLY BETWEEN
106 AND 112 DEGREES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX TAF SITES FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON SCT VFR CU CAN BE EXPECTED BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SCT AFTERNOON CU SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS REACHING THE WACO
TAF SITE REMAINS LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
IF BRIEF MVFR CIGS WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE IN THE 12 TO 14 UTC
TIME FRAME ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON VFR CU
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 14-16 KNOTS.

NOTE...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 104 TO 107 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUALS THAT WORK OUTSIDE ARE URGED TO STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN POSSIBLE.

BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 101  81 103  82 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  78 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  78 101  79 101 /  10  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX           101  79 103  80 103 /   5   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX         100  80 101  80 102 /   5   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX           100  82 102  83 103 /   0   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX          100  78 102  79 102 /   5   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  76 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    103  77 101  78 104 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

05/



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.