Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251747 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

A very tricky TAF cycle continues today at all sites as the
pertinent mesoscale details are being handled poorly by recent
high-resolution model guidance. Needless to say, this is a fairly
low confidence forecast, even in the short term.

For the Metroplex: recent radar trends reveal a general reduction
in the most robust cells, with a transition towards more showery
precipitation. It`s possible we pick up some filtered sunshine
through the afternoon hours, and given how moist the environment
is, it won`t take much to spark off additional thunderstorms and
will continue to prevail -SHRA VCTS after 20Z. While winds have
gone light northwesterly behind an outflow boundary, the actual
cold front will not arrive until about 02Z tonight, at which point
wind speeds will increase and most of our thunder chances will
diminish. MVFR cigs will likely accompany the front and will
linger into the morning hours on Monday. A gradual improvement to
low-end VFR cigs should occur through the mid-morning hours on

For Waco: outflow has pushed east of the TAF site, taking most of
the shower and thunder activity with it. With breaks in the
clouds, additional scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible through the afternoon hours. Tonight, the cold front
looks to push through around 05-06Z. MVFR and IFR cigs will
develop as the front passes.



A wet and rainy day is expected to continue across the region
with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall resulting in mostly
minor flooding at times. Rainfall totals this morning vary
considerably with a few locations near the I-35/35W corridor
receiving up to 3-4 inches of rain so far. Flooding reports have
been minimal so far and limited to mostly street flooding and full
creeks where some training has occurred. The heaviest rains have
been located near an eastward moving outflow boundary that appears
to be located just east of Interstate 35/35W at this time.

We are now starting to see additional convection develop ahead of
the outflow boundary (east of I-35/35E) where breaks in the clouds
are providing enough, albeit minimal, heating for convection to
quickly develop. For the remainder of the day, we expect scattered
convection will continue to develop as breaks in the cloud cover
occur. In the short term, most of the development will be near and
east of the outflow boundary (generally along and east of
I-35/35E), but in the afternoon hours, we could see redevelopment
of storms across the western half as breaks in the clouds allow
for some heating and several weak disturbances translate north
near our western border. Severe weather is not expected and
lightning and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

The cold front is tracking through Western Oklahoma and the Texas
Panhandle and is expected to reach our northwestern counties late
this afternoon. Storms are developing along the front but are
producing outflow boundaries that may push the front`s arrival
slightly earlier. The front will make steady progress southeast
tonight with additional rain along the front.

For the update, adjusted PoPs based on current trends this morning
and made small adjustments to the afternoon period. Adjusted
temperatures down over most of the region but a combination of
breaks in clouds and rain will play havoc with temperatures today.



Although the mean flow is nearly parallel to the quasi-linear MCS
that reached our northwestern zones at nightfall, it has continued
to make gradual progress eastward overnight. This has been made
possible by the advancing outflow, the gusty winds early this
morning confirming that the updrafts have maintained access to the
juicy surface parcels downstream. But this steadily stabilizing
nocturnal air has been unable to maintain the complex`s strength
as its associated forcing aloft has moved into Oklahoma. Despite
the eastward progress of the activity, the wind profiles continue
to promote training echoes. The impressive rainfall totals were
west of our area on Saturday, but many locations in our northwest
zones have received at least an inch of rain overnight. Antelope
(Jack County) tallied more than 3 inches.

The next impulse will take a similar track to its predecessor,
but its associated convection is also deviating eastward toward
the richer moisture. These showers and storms will impact our
southwestern zones early this morning with some gusty winds, but
they too will wane as the upper forcing leaves them behind.
Although there will be heavy rain, the progressive nature of the
activity should limit its duration. Subsequent disturbances, one
currently entering the Edwards Plateau and another upstream in
Mexico, will also take northerly treks, keeping the better forcing
to our west today. However, there will still be rounds of showers
and storms that affect areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor.
While flooding issues could result from training activity,
particularly if this occurs in areas that have already seen
wetting rains, the main concerns will be to our west. There will
also be some diurnally driven activity east of the better
organized convection, but lingering subsidence in East Texas
should limit its eastward extent.

The ongoing activity is disrupting the surface wind field, and
additional convection will continue to do so throughout the day.
Rain-cooled air well in advance of a cold front will belie its
position, which is currently in the Texas Panhandle. The true
boundary will take much of the day to reach our northwestern
zones. With the upper forcing driving the bulk of the convection
in vicinity of the front, we are unlikely to see a linear complex
coincident with the surface boundary, and showers and storms will
persist after its passage. However, as the dry postfrontal layer
deepens, the activity will eventually end from northeast to
southwest, but it may be until the daylight hours Monday before
this happens.

Lingering clouds and steady north winds Monday will likely keep
afternoon temperatures in the 70s along and west of the I-35
corridor. Sunshine will emerge Tuesday, but with many locations
starting the day in the 50s and lower 60s, high temperatures may
be similar. The 80s will return Wednesday, but the moisture will
not. Seasonal temperatures with humidity more befitting of autumn
will prevail into the opening weekend of October.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  64  76  61  80 /  90  60  40  10  10
Waco                82  67  78  60  79 /  90  70  40  10  10
Paris               87  65  79  59  80 /  40  40  30  10   5
Denton              76  63  75  55  79 /  90  60  40  10   5
McKinney            80  65  79  57  80 /  90  50  30  10  10
Dallas              81  66  77  63  80 /  90  60  40  10  10
Terrell             83  67  81  60  81 /  50  50  30  10  10
Corsicana           84  68  81  62  80 /  60  60  30  10  10
Temple              81  66  77  60  78 /  90  70  40  10  10
Mineral Wells       75  62  71  56  77 /  70  70  50  10  10


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