Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 052123
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON SNOW COVER AND
ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAVE NOT
CHANGED...SO THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WHICH DISCUSSES THIS IN
DETAIL HAS BEEN APPENDED BELOW THIS DISCUSSION.

FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED BELOW...ANOTHER FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND THAT COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ASSUMING THE SNOW IS ALL
GONE...OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD
REMAIN WARMER...WITH LOWS FALLING JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFF SHORE JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS
IT APPROACHES...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP US DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DESPITE MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANTLY...ONCE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
BEHIND IT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY SO WENT AHEAD WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. HAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIFT OVER THE
REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF THE DFW
AREA. MOST IMPORTANTLY...THERE IS NO COLD AIR ON ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...SO WHATEVER RAIN FALLS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID
FORM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

MONDAY...LINGERED SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE DYNAMICS AND
EVOLUTION OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE
CWA ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE WEAK IN NATURE AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY`S LEAD UPPER LOW
OR UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A WEAK PACIFIC TYPE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HOW EXTENSIVE THIS DRY AIR
INTRUSION IS WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL RAIN
DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO THERE IS NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
FEW DAYS CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MID-WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY OR
INTO THE WEEKEND. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT...THERE IS NO
CURRENT EVIDENCE THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV UPDATE...

...TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ROAD
CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELD BACK QUITE A BIT BY ALL OF
THE SLEET AND SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAINED BELOW FREEZING ANYWHERE WHERE
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATED...SNOW AND SLEET ON AREA ROADWAYS WAS
ALREADY STARTING TO MELT. ANY AREA ROADWAYS WHERE THE ROAD SURFACE
IS EXPOSED TO THE SUN WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS "EARLY MELT" BEFORE
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE THE DARK
SURFACES OF THE ROAD WILL ABSORB THE SUN`S ENERGY CAUSING THESE
SURFACES TO HEAT UP FASTER THAN THE AIR. THIS PROCESS OCCURS
EVERYDAY ACTUALLY...BUT IT IS MORE NOTICEABLE WHEN THERE`S
SOMETHING ON THE ROADWAYS TO MELT OFF. STARTING OFF THE DAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL HELP SNOW AND SLEET
TO MELT OFF AREA ROADWAYS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN SIMPLY WAITING
FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT
AFTER NOON TODAY FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ONCE AIR
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE AIR AND ROAD SURFACE HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL WORK TOGETHER TO START MELTING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS EFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET MELT WILL
BE GREATEST ON WELL TRAVELED ROADWAYS BECAUSE PERSISTENT TRAFFIC
IS MORE LIKELY TO EXPOSE ROAD SURFACES TO THE SUN. ALSO...WHILE
THIS IS FAIRLY COMMON SENSE IT`S WORTH NOTING...NOT ALL AREAS
RECEIVED THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT OF SNOW. AREAS THAT RECEIVED LESS
SNOWFALL WILL SEE IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS THE FASTEST.

IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT (FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT):

URBANIZED AREAS (INCLUDING MOST OF THE DFW AREA):

CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY: NOON
FALL BELOW FREEZING: 8-9 PM
OVERNIGHT LOW: 22-25 DEGREES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY: BY 10 AM
FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE: MID-40S

NON-URBAN AREAS (MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS):

CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY: NOON-1PM
FALL BELOW FREEZING: 7-8 PM
OVERNIGHT LOW: 19-23 DEGREES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY: BY 10 AM
FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE: MID-40S

ANTICIPATED IMPACTS:

URBAN AREAS WILL TEND TO ABSORB MORE OF THE SUN`S ENERGY
TODAY...KEEPING THE AIR TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTRA
HOUR OR SO THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT...SO ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW...SLEET...OR WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS LIKELY TO REFREEZE
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED HOWEVER...SO ANY ROADWAYS THAT BECOME DRY BEFORE 8-9 PM
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR
AREA ROADWAYS OF ALMOST ALL SNOW AND ICE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN SUMMARY...EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF
ROADS BECOMING COMPLETELY ICE AND SNOW FREE BEFORE WE FALL BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO VARY BASED ON THE DISCUSSION
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOME SORT OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE WILL
REMAIN ON ROADWAYS THAT ARE LESS TRAVELED...OR WHERE SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT. FACTORS SUCH AS WHICH
ROADS MAY HAVE BEEN PLOWED OR SEMI-CLEARED BY HEAVY TRAFFIC ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ON A MULTI-COUNTY/CITY SCALE. CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH THAT ANY REMAINING SLUSH ON ROADS AFTER 9 PM WILL
BECOME REFROZEN TO ROAD SURFACES BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEARED OFF OF
MOST AREA ROADWAYS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT IN THE METROPLEX AND
15-17 KT AT KACT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 06/00Z AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY 06/03Z.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S MAY TURN SOME OF THE WET
SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON INTO ICY SURFACES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TEXAS.
30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  24  49  30  56  40 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              22  50  28  54  40 /   0   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             22  48  27  56  35 /   0   0   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            21  49  27  57  38 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          22  48  28  56  38 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            25  49  31  57  40 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           22  49  29  57  39 /   0   0   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         24  49  30  57  40 /   0   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            23  51  29  54  39 /   0   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     20  50  28  58  37 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



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