Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 020545 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016
All remains quiet late this evening, but the first real signs of
northward moisture transport are apparent as a shield of MVFR and
VFR clouds is presently pushing through the Hill Country. Low-
level winds will usher the lowest clouds to our west, but VFR cigs
should begin to develop at area TAF sites towards Friday morning.
These cigs may scatter and lift during the late-morning before a
secondary surge of moisture ensures the envelopment of North and
Central Texas with overcast VFR skies during the afternoon.
As warm advection increases in earnest, expect an initial wave of
showers to develop, first impacting Waco Friday afternoon, before
moving north and overspreading Metroplex sites an hour or two
later. The thunder potential with this initial wave still appears
too low to mention explicitly in the TAFs, but sporadic lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out. Initially VFR cigs at Waco should
lower to MVFR towards the end of the valid TAF period.
In the DFW extended: warm advection/isentropic ascent will
continue to intensify late Friday night. Precipitation will
respond accordingly by increasing in coverage and intensity with
cigs lowering to MVFR. I`ve also introduced VCTS after 03/10Z as
this intense warm advection, coupled with increasing mid-level
instability should result in an elevated threat of thunder.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/
We`ve had a nice day today with temperatures rising from the 20s
and 30s shortly after sunrise to the mid to upper 60s this
afternoon. With a surface high having moved off to the east,
southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph have returned. The airmass is still
quite dry with surface dewpoints in the 20s to mid 30s as of 3 pm.
The initial return of low level moisture for North and Central
Texas will come in from the southwest, spreading from the Hill
Country into areas mainly along and west of I-35 overnight tonight
and across the rest of the forecast area during the day Friday. As
isentropic upglide increases tomorrow, some light rain showers
will start off in the southwestern zones during the morning and
rain chance will increase from southwest to northeast during the
afternoon across all but the northeastern counties. Highs will be
cooler Friday ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The rain will become widespread Friday night and continue
Saturday as a cold front slides south into the forecast area while
a strong jet sets up on the east side of an upper level low
centered over northwestern Mexico. At this time it looks like mid
level instability may be insufficient for much in the way of
thunderstorm development. Although we cannot totally rule out some
isolated thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday, have not included
this in the forecast at this time, but later shifts may need to
add thunderstorms. Lows Friday night will be mostly in the 40s.
Temperatures will be nearly steady or slowly fall during the day
Although rain chances will continue area wide through Monday, the
greatest areal coverage of rain should shift southeast overnight
Saturday night into Sunday. As the upper level low lifts northeast
into the Central Plains, more widespread rain along with some
isolated thunderstorms are expected Sunday night with the best
chances shifting to east of the I-35 corridor Monday. As the low
moves farther to the northeast, rain chances will end from
southwest to northeast Monday night.
We will have a brief break on Tuesday as we will be between
weather systems. With a return of some sunshine, highs will range
from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. As the upper level
trough moves across the Plains and a cold front moves through
Texas, there will be some rain chances overnight Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Some of the coldest air of the season is expected
mid to late week behind the front.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 64 47 50 45 / 0 30 90 80 60
Waco 44 63 47 50 47 / 0 40 90 90 70
Paris 39 62 45 48 43 / 0 5 80 90 70
Denton 42 62 46 49 44 / 0 30 80 80 60
McKinney 42 62 46 48 44 / 0 20 80 80 60
Dallas 46 64 48 50 46 / 0 20 80 90 60
Terrell 42 63 47 50 46 / 0 20 80 90 70
Corsicana 44 64 48 50 46 / 0 20 80 90 80
Temple 45 62 47 51 46 / 5 50 90 90 80
Mineral Wells 44 61 45 48 44 / 0 40 90 80 60