Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY AT WACO WILL
CONTAIN MORE THUNDERSTORM CELLS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE VLIFR
VSBY/CIGS MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE ACTIVITY ENDS THERE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE CIGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE CURRENTLY. SHORT-TERM HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH MAY COMPLETELY ERODE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...BUT GIVEN TRENDS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW A PERIOD OF VFR. CIGS OR
FOG MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NEVER A GOOD DIRECTION FOR DENSE FOG. WILL
SHOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY AFTER 9Z...BUT THIS IS A HEDGE AGAINST SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
ANY CLOUDS/FOG WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT WITH PERHAPS BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS
BETWEEN 2-4Z AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN COMPLEX. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS.

CONCERNING WESTERLY CROSSWINDS ON N-S RUNWAYS ON SUNDAY...THERE
IS NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM CONSIDERABLY MORE TAME
WITH WINDS THAN THE GFS. WE ARE NOW IN RANGE OF THE RAP...AND
ITS FORECAST OF 850MB/925MB WINDS APPEARS TO BE ALIGNING MORE WITH
THE GFS. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS ARE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TO GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BELIEVE THEY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THEIR STRONGEST SPEEDS UNTIL
20Z/2PM TO 00Z/6PM. THUS OUR STRONG WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
DELAYED THAN THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND A FEW KNOTS LOWER. RIGHT
NOW OUR FORECAST IS FOR 29023G33KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT TRAFFIC
FLOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR AMENDMENTS TO THIS THINKING.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  70  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  50   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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