Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 030448 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NO CONCERNS...VFR.

LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHEN SPEEDS FALL TO NEAR 5KTS...THE DIRECTION
TYPICALLY VARIES...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY ENTER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH IN W/NW FLOW.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
TAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS MOST OF OUR RED RIVER
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH MAY SLIDE IN FROM THE
NORTH AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING
OF THE COLUMN. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM...BUT PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

BAIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AGAIN JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WE WILL SHOW
A MENTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY...AND THUS VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FOR EARLY AUGUST. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SO UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL BE RETURNING TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEK...BUT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON ITS EASTERN
FRINGE. THIS MEANS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE TOO
PROMINENT...AND ONCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS ENOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY BE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEK...IT IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT COULD MAKE
THE WEATHER GO FROM DRY TO - SURPRISE IT IS RAINING. AT THIS
POINT THE INGREDIENTS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION DO NOT APPEAR
TO COME IN PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...BUT AGAIN THIS IS NOT A
PATTERN WHERE DRY WEATHER IS A CERTAINTY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE HIGH PLAINS. FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW ALOFT EXISTS FOR A MCS TO
FORM AND TRACK INTO THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
JUST LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR ANY COMPLEX TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BY THIS TIME
THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE FORCING MAY INTERACT
WITH THE UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS. OTHERWISE HAVE SHOWN POPS OF
10 PERCENT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY NORTH OF I-20 BUT KEPT THE WORDED
FORECAST DRY. THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND STALL. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.

AGAIN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTEND WITH
JUST HOT AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCH UP INTO
THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE WEEK. BY NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL PROMOTE HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WELL INTO MID AUGUST.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79  99  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              73  99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  98  74  98  76 /   0  10   0  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  98  75  99  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  99  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 100  82 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           73  99  75  98  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74 100  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  98  73  99  76 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/15



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