Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231536 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...

TODAY IS THE FIRST FULL DAY OF AUTUMN AND LOWS THIS MORNING WERE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS DATE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SO AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH WEST TO EAST
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP ALL SYSTEMS DEFLECTED WELL NORTH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PINCHED OFF OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE
WILL KEEP THE GULF SHUT DOWN AND HOLD DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ATYPICAL EARLY FALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN COOLER AIRMASSES REMAINING BOTTLED UP IN CANADA FOR THE
ENTIRE 7 DAYS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE DAY AND PLEASANTLY COOL AT NIGHT. LOWS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 55
AND 65 WHILE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A
TAILING THIN AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE TAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CUT
OFF SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE
GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT HELP LESSEN THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OR HELP IMPROVE UPON THE LOW LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE CUT OFF WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DRIFTS SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THIS SYSTEM SETTLES
WITH RICHER MOISTURE BEING CONTAINED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. IF THE FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE EUROPEAN MODELS PANS
OUT...THEN THERE MAY BE LOW DIURNAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. EITHER WAY IT MOST LIKELY BE LOW
COVERAGE AND NOT DO MUCH TOWARD CURRENT RAINFALL DEFICITS. THE
DIFFERENCES NOTED HAS US HOLDING TO A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS CAN GET IRON OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS...LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.

A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY FALL EVOLVES
BY THE FIRST OF OCTOBER OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR THE OCCASIONAL FRONTAL SURGE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING OR WHAT ACTUALLY EVOLVES WITH
THE PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. UNTIL THEN
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME OUTSIDE OF AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND HUMIDITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DFW WAS STILL SITTING AT 0.06 FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THE
RECORD DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD IS 0.09 INCHES IN 1984. IF NOTHING
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THEN THIS RECORD COULD
CERTAINLY BE IN JEOPARDY.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              86  58  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  55  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            83  57  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          82  54  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            84  61  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  57  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         84  58  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  59  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  58  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82





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