Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280238
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
938 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017


.UPDATE...
Only minor tweaks to the current forecast. There remains a small
cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms that are ongoing
south and southeast of the Metroplex late this evening. These seem
to be partially enhanced by a northward moving outflow boundary
from earlier convection to the south. Radar trends are similar to
earlier convection with strongest updrafts lasting only 15-30
minutes before collapsing and new showers developing. General
thinking is that this activity will persist for another 1-2 hours
before falling apart completely as intersecting outflow departs to
the north and low level inflow weakens. We`ll keep some 20% PoPs
going through midnight mainly south and southeast of the
Metroplex. Other minor adjustments include hourly temperature
trends.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 733 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/
A weakness in an upper ridge overhead and the presence of old
outflow boundaries led to scattered thunderstorm development in
and around the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Convection has waned with
the loss of surface heating, leaving behind vfr conditions and
generally light winds. For Waco, there remains an outside chance
of a seabreeze shower but the probabilities are too low to mention
in the KACT TAF.

The weakness in the ridge will move southeast overnight which
should confine Wednesday`s convective weather to the Upper Texas
Coastal region. Otherwise, return flow during the overnight hours
will usher in an MVFR stratus layer, which should arrive at KACT
around 09Z and the Metro area 12Z. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by midday Wednesday.

30

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms started to develop northwest
through east of Dallas. This activity has increased in areal
coverage and intensity with a couple of the storms getting close
to or becoming severe. Given the slow movement of the storms some
localized flooding is also likely. This activity is diurnally
driven and should dissipate before sunset. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms have been isolated except over the southeast where
the activity has been more in the scattered category.

The weak upper level trough that has aided in the development of
thunderstorms today will shift to the east overnight tonight. Low
chances of showers and thunderstorms will shift to areas southeast
of a Temple to Athens line Wednesday afternoon and evening. High
temperatures Wednesday will be a little warmer with ranging from
near 90 east to the mid 90s northwest.

The warming trend will continue for Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging builds in from the west. The combination of the
temperature and humidity will result in heat index values of 98
to 107 degrees both days. A Heat Advisory may be needed for
Thursday and Friday for parts of the forecast area. There will be
low chances of thunderstorms across the southeast again Thursday
afternoon and evening and across the east and near the Red River
Friday.

A cold front will move down the Plains Thursday as a upper level
trough moves across the Northern and Central Plains. This front
will move down to or just south of the Red River overnight Friday
night into Saturday. A thunderstorm complex is expected to develop
along the front and move southeast into North Texas. Strong gusty
winds and heavy rain will accompany some of the storms.
A slight cool down is expected Saturday across the north.Highs
Saturday will rang from the upper 80s northeast to the mid 90s
southwest.

Hot and rain-free weather is expected Sunday through the middle
of next week as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Lows will be in the 70s and highs will be in the 90s to slightly
over 100 degrees.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  93  75  95  79 /  10   5   5   5   5
Waco                71  91  74  96  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Paris               69  90  72  91  74 /   5   5   5  10  10
Denton              70  92  73  96  76 /  10   5   5   5   5
McKinney            70  91  73  93  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
Dallas              74  93  76  95  78 /  10   5   5   5   5
Terrell             71  91  73  94  76 /  20   5   5  10  10
Corsicana           71  91  73  94  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
Temple              71  91  73  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       70  92  72  95  74 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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