Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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219
FXUS64 KFWD 220308 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1008 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Overall, the forecast is in good shape, and no significant
changes were needed for the evening update, but did increase the
cloud cover through the night as a mixture of low level stratus
and high level cirrus continues to spread across the region. TS
Cindy is now located about 100 miles south of the Texas/Louisiana
border and is forecast to continue moving north tonight, making
landfall early Thursday morning. Impacts to North and Central
Texas are still expected to be minimal as we remain on the western
side of the storm. Decaying rain bands on the northwestern
periphery of the storm are approaching our southeastern counties,
but it`s very unlikely any precipitation has fallen in these
counties. However, some rain may occur there later tonight and
will retain up to a 40 PoP in our far east and southeast counties.

Thunderstorms have also once again developed in the Texas
Panhandle and Western Oklahoma. These storms are showing a
decaying trend and should continue to weaken over the next few
hours, posing nearly no threat to North Texas.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/
Main aviation challenge is the potential for MVFR cigs on
Thursday morning. These low clouds will be associated with
moisture on the far northwestern periphery of Tropical Storm Cindy
which continues to approach the TX/LA coast.

Models are fairly consistent with Cindy`s track, bringing it
northward towards Shreveport, LA. DFW Metroplex airports as well
as Waco will be on the far northwestern and western edge of the
system through the next 24-30 hours. As a result, airports will
largely be unaffected other than the potential for the
aforementioned MVFR cigs Thursday morning. Western Metroplex
airports may see very limited MVFR conditions and have only
tempo`d cigs for KFTW and KAFW. Conditions should improve to VFR
by midday with winds remaining northeasterly around 10 kts.
Rainfall chances are expected to remain east of the airports and
have not included any RA or even VCSH mention in the TAFs at this
time. Later Thursday evening in DFW`s extended TAF period, winds
should return to the ESE as Cindy begins moving northeastward away
from TX.

-Stalley

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/
/Tonight through Thursday Night/

Visible satellite imagery and regional radar data indicate that
Tropical Storm Cindy is now spreading a little closer to Texas
this afternoon. Some high cloudiness has overspread much of the
region from the east and this will likely persist through
Thursday. The main concern in the short term is precipitation
chances primarily driven by the track of the tropical system.
Generally, we`re expecting little overall impact to North Texas
outside of some increasing rain chances across our eastern
counties.

Latest track guidance continues to indicate that the center of
Tropical Storm Cindy will make landfall near the TX/LA border very
late tonight or early Thursday morning, before lifting off to the
north then northeast. This track would generally favor lower
precipitation chances across our area given we would be on the
west side of the storm, which is usually much drier. However, over
the last several hours, there has been a marked increase in
convection to the northwest of the center. This has been modeled
fairly well by all of the guidance, and current indications are
that this convection on the northwest side will continue as the
system makes landfall. This means that we may see some outer
bands, or at least the outer periphery of the main rain shield,
spread into our far eastern and southeastern counties well after
midnight tonight into early Thursday morning. As the storm weakens
and continues northward, rain chances will continue mainly across
our far eastern counties. Most areas along and west of I-35 will
see no rainfall at all.

Concerning rainfall amounts across the east, they should generally
remain around 1". Of course with any tropical system, rainfall
production is extremely efficient, so if a stronger band rotates
around the western side and into our area, some localized areas
could pick up more than that rather quickly. Overall though, the
threat for widespread heavy rainfall and flooding in our area is
low. Likewise, the threat for any tropical tornadoes or damaging
wind gusts is also very low being on the western periphery of the
storm. Rain chances should drop off rather quickly Thursday
evening as the system pulls off to the northeast.

Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow
given the extensive cloud cover, especially across the east.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/
/Friday through Tuesday/

For Friday---The remains of T.S. Cindy should be lifting
northward towards the Ark-La-Tex through the day on Friday. In the
wake of the remains, height rises should yield a mostly
precipitation-free day. The exception to this may be across East
TX, where some lingering rain bands may slide southward and graze
far eastern zones. Overall, the strong subsidence should squelch
any widespread convective chances during the day. The subsidence
will also help temperatures climb into the mid 90s with a few
upper 90s to near 100 not being out of the realm of possibility
down across Central TX and the Big Country. The humid conditions
coupled with temperatures in the 90s are expected to yield heat
index values in the 100-105 degree range. Given that Saturday
should be cooler, a Heat Advisory is not planned at this time.

Better rain chances are forecast late in the day on Friday and
into Saturday morning as a front slides southward towards North
Texas. The GFS and NAM have been consistent all along with a
faster progression of the front and the latest ECMWF appears to be
coming into better agreement with the model consensus---despite
the time of year. One potential reason for a faster progression of
the front could be due to the stronger north winds that will
likely already be in place, courtesy of the remains of T.S. Cindy.
In addition, a trough axis, albeit very diffuse, may induce
enough CAA to help shunt the front southward. Precipitation
chances increase along the Red River and across eastern zones
close to this feature on Friday evening into Saturday. While there
will be a front in the vicinity of North TX, much of this
activity will be largely diurnally driven, so it`s possible that
Friday night into early Saturday remain dry. With regards to storm
hazards, widespread severe weather is not expected as deep layer
shear should be quite meager and the widespread cloud cover may
serve to keep instability values below 1500 J/kg. Slow storm
motions coupled with high amounts of low level moisture may
support a heavy rain and minor flood threat. For now, I don`t
anticipate the need for any flood headlines, given the expected
areal coverage and relatively isolated minor flood potential.

For Saturday and Sunday---The early portion of the day on
Saturday could be dry before limited daytime heating allows for
the development of convection. Similar to Friday, rain appears
more probable near and just south of the frontal boundary, which
should be draped across the Red River. Deep layer shear still
appears to be on the low end of the spectrum with CAPE values
nearing 1500-2000 J/kg. With these instability values, there could
be some strong storms with gusty winds being the main concern.
Heavy rain and isolated instances of minor flooding will be
possible given that storm motions will remain slow. The coverage
of storms is expected to be scattered to perhaps numerous at
times. As a result, not all locales will experience rain/storms on
Saturday. The coverage of storms should dwindle after sunset with
likely a dry period Saturday night into Sunday morning. Diurnally
driven convection should return on Sunday, with perhaps the
greatest coverage shifting a bit farther down to the south along
the slow moving frontal boundary. Gusty winds and heavy rain still
look possible, especially across Central TX. With the widespread
cloud cover and pockets of convection, temperatures area-wide are
expected to be 5 to nearly 8 degrees below normal.

For Monday and Tuesday---Low end rain chances continue into early
next week. The lack of strong forcing precludes anything higher
than slight chance PoPs. Temperatures should remain below normal
during this time as well, compliments of mostly cloudy skies.
Beyond the early part of next week, precipitation-free conditions
are expected.

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  76  95  75 /   5  10   5   5  30
Waco                73  91  74  96  76 /  10  10   5   5  10
Paris               71  85  73  89  73 /  10  40  20  30  40
Denton              70  91  73  94  73 /   0   5   5  20  30
McKinney            71  90  74  93  73 /  10  20  10  20  30
Dallas              75  91  77  95  76 /   5  10  10   5  30
Terrell             73  88  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  30
Corsicana           74  87  76  93  75 /  20  20  10  10  20
Temple              72  91  74  96  76 /   5   5   0   5  10
Mineral Wells       68  93  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/26



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