Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021117
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS
BEFORE BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN THIS EVENING.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
THE MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS
DISSIPATED BUT SOME REMNANT VORTICITY FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BUT HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT BASED ON MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE COMING IN A LITTLE DRIER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER GENERALLY
NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE...AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST AND
PARK ITSELF OVER TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SOGGY SOILS WILL HELP TO ADD MOISTURE TO
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH EVAPORATION...RESULTING IN HIGHER
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS WILL
BE STRONGLY CAPPED AND GENERALLY SUBSIDENT...SO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN LOOK MINIMAL. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SLIDING OFF TO THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND PERHAPS A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY IF THESE FORECASTS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  69  88  69  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
WACO, TX              89  67  88  68  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             84  66  85  67  86 /   5   0   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            87  67  87  67  88 /   5   0   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  67  86  67  87 /   5   0   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            88  69  90  70  91 /   5   0   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  67  87  68  88 /   5   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         87  67  88  68  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            89  67  88  67  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  67  88  67  89 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

77/92


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