Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 191844 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
The surface layer was unable to cope with the sudden surge of
Gulf moisture at the coolest time of the day, and widespread LIFR
ceilings and IFR/LIFR dominated the daylight hours of the morning.
Although such conditions rarely improve so quickly this time of
year, this air mass is better suited to April than February. That
said, there remains the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms
tonight. The remainder of the afternoon will be dominated by MVFR
ceilings, and showers will develop as rich moisture arrives at
850mb. However, the deep convection will initiate across western
portions of North Texas, particularly if the low cloud deck is
able to allow some sunshine through. It still appears that these
scattered thunderstorms will have a tendency to congeal into a
line and approach the I-35 corridor around midnight. This may be
during the complex`s transition from a severe threat to a heavy
rain threat, but this will not preclude thunder at the I-35
corridor TAF sites during the early morning hours Monday. Showery
rain will continue during the morning push, which should have
minimal adverse impacts.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/
A weak east-west oriented surface boundary near the I-20 area
currently separates cooler and drier air to the north from deeper
moisture and warmer air to the south. This boundary will lift
north this morning as a deep upper level trough approaches and lee
side surface troughing intensifies. This will allow Gulf moisture
to spread north across the entire area mid to late morning as the
boundary lifts north of the Red River, which will set the stage
for a round of showers and storms tonight.
Light showers will be possible this morning as low level moisture
spreads in from the south. This moist air advection when combined
with surface heating will destabilize the atmosphere as we move
into the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms should develop
mid to late afternoon across the western third of the forecast
area as modest lift associated with a lead shortwave develops.
Surface based CAPE is forecast to be at or above 1000 J/KG with 50
KT of bulk shear in place, which should be sufficient for a few
strong to possibly severe storms. Hail and damaging wind would be
the primary threat, though an isolated tornado is possible. Deep
layer meridional flow means that storms will move quickly to the
north-northeast, which should keep activity west of the I-35
corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Stronger forcing for ascent will arrive 9PM to midnight as the
main upper trough axis moves into West Texas. High-res model
solutions are coming into pretty good agreement on rapid storm
development just west of the I-35 corridor during this timeframe.
A window of opportunity may exist during these late evening hours
that may allow for individual cells containing rotating updrafts,
which would keep the severe threat in place through at least
midnight. It appears that storms will quickly grow upscale into a
linear MCS shortly after midnight as forcing continues to increase
and a 30 KT low level jet develops. Individual cells embedded in
the line will be moving rapidly north-northeast while the entire
line shifts steadily eastward overnight. Training storms will
lead to locally heavy rain and flooding of low lying areas, but
the progressive nature of the system should prevent a higher-end
flood threat. Instability will have dropped off significantly
during the overnight hours but will still be enough for isolated
wind damage due to bowing segments along the line.
The line of storms will move east of the forecast area Monday
Morning, with the back edge of lingering stratiform precipitation
ending in the afternoon. The upper trough will then split Monday
night and Tuesday, with the northern half racing off to the
northeast as an open shortwave and the southern half dropping
southeast into the Northwest Gulf as a cut-off low. This will
leave North and Central Texas under the influence of a shortwave
ridge, keeping conditions warm and dry Tuesday through Thursday.
The ridge will break down late Thursday and Friday as an upper
trough sweeps across the Central CONUS, which will send a cold
front through the area on Friday. This will cool things to near-
normal, with conditions remaining dry Friday through next weekend.
Rain chances return by next Monday as a mid-latitude shortwave
and a Pacific cold front affect the region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 61 73 52 76 / 20 60 30 10 5
Waco 75 60 72 51 75 / 20 70 40 10 5
Paris 74 61 69 53 73 / 20 70 50 10 10
Denton 72 59 73 49 75 / 30 60 30 10 5
McKinney 73 61 72 51 74 / 20 70 30 10 10
Dallas 74 62 73 53 76 / 20 70 30 10 10
Terrell 77 62 71 53 74 / 20 80 40 10 10
Corsicana 77 62 71 54 74 / 20 80 50 10 10
Temple 75 60 72 52 76 / 30 70 40 10 5
Mineral Wells 72 56 75 48 76 / 40 60 20 5 5