Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 230446 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
06 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns---None major. VFR with south flow. Light to moderate
turbulence possible with virga on Sunday.
VFR will prevail through the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle. A shortwave
trough will lift northward out of the Rio Grande River Valley and
continue to spread mid and high-level clouds northward across all
North and Central TX terminals. There may be some high-based
convection associated with this lift on Sunday and Sunday
afternoon. While precipitation at the surface is expected to be
sparse due to the presence of dry air at the surface, some light
to moderate turbulence may be possible with virga from the
mid/high level clouds at around FL170-FL250. Otherwise, breezy
south winds of around 15 knots with higher gusts will are forecast
on Sunday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
Breezy and mild weather was occurring this afternoon, as North-
Central Texas was under the influence of upper high pressure. At
the surface, the area was sandwiched between broad high pressure
over Lower Mississippi Valley and a lee trough over the Western
High Plains. A shortwave disturbance currently moving northeast
over western Mexico will track across Mexico and Texas on Sunday.
Though this system is well-defined, the expected thermodynamic
environment will not be favorable for any precipitation due to a
broad and warm capping inversion and moisture being confined to
the boundary layer and aloft well above 700mb. Otherwise, it will
a little windier with S winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
in excess of 20 mph. Highs will warm to around 80 degrees Sunday.
After the departure of the late weekend shortwave to the east on
Monday and Monday night, southerly winds will continue to bring
moisture northward from the Gulf Of Mexico the first half of the
week. Tuesday will be in between disturbances, so the breezy and
warmer than normal conditions will continue, along with the
humidity. A weak shortwave moves across Tuesday night and helps
weakening the shortwave ridge over North Texas, before a stronger
shortwave moves across the Central plains and across the Ozarks
later on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A cold front will
slide across the Red River by Wednesday evening, before racing
back north as a warm front on Thursday.
Moisture will pool along the frontal boundary late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening and coincide with the tailing lift from
shortwave to initiate a few showers and storms, mainly north of
I-20 and east of I-35W. Northerly 0-6km bulk shear on the order of
20-45 kts and mid level lapse rates 7 deg/C could result in a few
strong to brief severe storms with hail, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning by Wednesday evening.
The progressive shortwave will exit the area quickly by Thursday
morning, allowing rapid mid level height rises and a quick end to
any convective rain chances. The upper high will continue to
strengthen over the area Friday. The zonal flow aloft to our
north will allow lee surface cyclogenesis and a return to gusty
south winds. In addition, high temperatures will continue around
10 degrees or more warmer than seasonal late October temperatures
usually in the lower 70s.
Next weekend is where the Euro and GFS models differ with the
former bringing in another cold front, low rain chances, and
cooler temperatures by Saturday night into early Sunday.
Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the upper high around longer, but does
backdoor a dry cold front later Sunday. With such uncertainty with
these model solutions, I have maintained a dry forecast with
above normal temperatures for next weekend until details can be
ironed out in the coming week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 80 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 52 82 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 50 78 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 51 78 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 52 78 60 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 56 80 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 52 79 60 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 52 80 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 51 80 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 52 81 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 0