Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 242140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. CHANGES
ARE ON THE WAY WITH A CONSIDERABLY WARMER CHRISTMAS DAY EXPECTED
FOLLOWED BY A COLDER WEEKEND THEN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF 2015.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON CHRISTMAS DAY. PRESSURE
FALLS INDUCED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SERVE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A RATHER BREEZY CHRISTMAS DAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 850MB AND TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE. THE COMBINATION
OF WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED GRASS FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE IT APPEARS THAT FINE FUEL
MOISTURE/SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PREVENT RAPID
GRASS FIRE GROWTH...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS ANTICIPATED DESPITE
MEETING THE STRICT METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GRASS FIRES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-35. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND GENERALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FARTHER EAST INSTEAD OF PULLING
IT WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE TIED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF THE TROUGH DIGS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MORE MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED IN
ATOP A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS RESULTING IN A MORE PROLONGED COLD RAIN
EVENT.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S BOTH
DAYS AND ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
AWAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 1050MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO MONTANA BY LATE MONDAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHARPLY COLDER WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING AS IT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST THROUGH
MID WEEK AND THE 850MB TROUGH AXIS CLOSE BY...THERE COULD BE GOOD
WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS ATOP A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
THIS IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A DEEPER COLDER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME SORT OF MIX OR TRANSITION TO
SLEET THEN SNOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY. WITH A DEEPER COLDER AIRMASS
IN PLACE...MOISTURE QUALITY BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT
COULD MAKE A MESS OF THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING THE SHIFT IN WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CHALLENGE.

LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR SUNSET. AS WINDS VEER IN DIRECTION...THEY ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES TEMPORARILY ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  63  49  64  46 /   0   0   5  10  30
WACO, TX              32  64  49  65  50 /   0   0   5  10  30
PARIS, TX             32  61  45  59  49 /   0   0   5  20  60
DENTON, TX            32  63  48  61  43 /   0   0   5  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          32  62  48  61  46 /   0   0   5  10  30
DALLAS, TX            36  63  50  63  48 /   0   0   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           33  63  49  63  51 /   0   0   5  10  40
CORSICANA, TX         34  63  50  66  53 /   0   0   5  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            32  64  49  67  52 /   0   0   5  10  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     31  64  45  64  39 /   0   0   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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