Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 311739 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KACT AND POSSIBLY THE
DFW METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE TAF REPRESENTS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AROUND KACT AND POSSIBLY IN THE DFW METROPLEX. KACT HAS
BETTER CHANCES FOR BEING AFFECTED BY A STORM AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
METROPLEX. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY THIS EVENING IN THE METROPLEX AND AT KACT SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW- SCT CUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 5-10 KFT WILL
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

82/JLD

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT HAS
RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IS STILL TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCES
SHOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND AREAS WEST OF THERE
AS MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. UNFORTUNATELY
IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SHORT ONE
AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LACK
OF RAINFALL...IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ON SATURDAY...WHAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S BUT DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE MID 50S. THIS IS THE SO CALLED DRY HEAT
AND MAKES SWEATING VERY EFFICIENT AT COOLING THE HUMAN BODY EVEN
IN LIGHT WINDS FOR THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTSIDE. THE
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE WONT LAST LONG THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMB TO OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 102 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  75  97  77  98 /  20  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  73  99  73  99 /  20  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  69  96  72  97 /  10  10  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            97  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          96  70  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            98  76  98  78  98 /  20  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  72  98  73  99 /  20  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  72  98  73  99 /  20  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  71  99  73  99 /  20  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  71  95  73  97 /  20  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/92



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.