Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 152040
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service NORMAN OK
240 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

As the cold front makes its way through the region, radar trends
show a few transient light showers. Expect this isolated activity to
continue along the front into the evening, however, do not expect
much in the way of measurable precipitation (if any).

The front stalls near the southern border of the CWA before
beginning to lift on Thursday. Moisture return and isentropic lift
will be present, justifying the introduction of low POPs into this
period. A temperature gradient across the CWA will reflect the
position of the frontal boundary, with southeast portions of the
area keeping warmer temperatures while the rest of the region cools
off.

Day/OUN

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday Onward/

Models have come into much better agreement for the timing of the
Friday/Saturday front, giving increased confidence for this
forecast. Albeit, there are still some mesoscale factors that will
come into play such as eroding cloud cover.

Models show a strong moisture inflow from the south and southwest,
suggesting a slower erosion to cloud cover. This in turn will limit
the pre-frontal torch on Friday and keep some low POPs in the
forecast.

After the passage of the front, the weekend will see cooler drier
weather. Gusty winds will fill in behind the front on Saturday.

Tuesday may see some low chances for precip across our southern
counties as a shortwave passes just south of us, but the better
chances look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS show some sort of system moving through midweek next week,
though they differ greatly on what that system looks like.

Day/OUN

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  68  62  80  62 /  20  20  10  10   5
Waco                63  73  64  80  63 /  20  20  10  10   5
Paris               56  62  57  76  60 /  10  30  10  10  10
Denton              56  66  59  80  60 /  10  20  10  10   0
McKinney            57  67  60  78  61 /  20  20  10  10   5
Dallas              60  68  62  80  63 /  20  20  10  10   5
Terrell             61  70  62  78  63 /  20  30  10  10   5
Corsicana           63  72  63  79  63 /  20  30  10  10   5
Temple              64  75  63  81  63 /  20  20  10  10   5
Mineral Wells       56  67  58  82  58 /  20  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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