Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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024
FXUS64 KFWD 261800 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...

18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...Convective potential this afternoon. VFR outside of
any convective activity.

For the Metroplex TAF sites...VFR with generally south flow can
be expected throughout the entire TAF cycle including the DFW
extended. Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery indicate
that a mid-level shear axis in combination with daytime heating
will be the culprits for encouraging afternoon convection. More
robust mesoscale ascent appears to be across Oklahoma associated
with remnant convective outflows. This will likely impact the
northernmost arrival/departure gates. It is conceivable that this
convection will produce additional outflows which may promote
growth of additional showers/storms further to the south towards
D10 airspace. Given the probability of additional cells along
convective outflows and the Metroplex`s proximity to the upper
level shear axis, I`ve opted to continue with the mention of VCTS
from the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. Convection near or
at any terminals will be capable of frequent lightning, heavy rain
(which will result in poor visibility) and gusty/chaotic winds.
Thereafter, convection should subside with the loss of daytime
heating. East winds this afternoon will become more southeasterly
through the TAF with perhaps a few brief periods of light south-
southwest winds. Convective chances beyond 12 UTC Wednesday are
too low to mention in the TAF at this time, but trends in model
output will be monitored.


For the Waco TAF site...Diurnal convection is expected across
Central TX, but overall confidence in the exact timing only
warrants a broad window for VCTS in the TAF. Convection near or at
the TAF site will be capable of lightning, heavy rain (reducing
visibility) and gusty/chaotic outflow. Otherwise, VFR with east
winds shifting to the south can be expected.

24-Bain

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes were needed to the forecast and most minor
changes were to update based on current trends. The cumulus field
is starting to expand across what has been a mostly sunny sky for
most of North and Central Texas this morning. By early afternoon,
we anticipate isolated showers and storms to develop again with
slightly better chances for rain across our north to northwest
counties and also across our southeastern counties. Strong and
gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain will be the main
hazards with any storms today.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
Things are quiet this morning across North and Central Texas after
a day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery
shows the shortwave trough responsible for the initial
thunderstorm activity moving through south-central Texas this
morning. A much broader large scale troughing exists across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and it is this general weakness in the
heights aloft that will allow continued scattered rain chances
across North and Central Texas for the next several days.

For today...a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across central
Oklahoma this morning will continue to weaken and will likely not
make it into North Texas. This cluster of storms has put down at
least one outflow boundary that appears to be located just north
of the Red River. A little farther north...a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary is located across central Oklahoma. Aloft...one
shortwave embedded in the overall large trough is moving away to
our southwest. Another shortwave appears on water vapor to be
approaching the LA/MS coast now. This puts North and Central Texas
in between these features away from the better forcing for ascent.
While we may not actually be subsident...we will likely need at
least some weak forcing to get showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the absence of any substantial surface forcing
mechanism. This is not to say that we won`t see scattered storms
today...but it appears that coverage will be significantly reduced
from yesterday. We should still see scattered storms during peak
heating where any remnant boundaries or areas of stronger
mesoscale forcing are present. The favored areas for this to occur
appear to be across our northern counties along the Red River and
across our southern tier of counties. Convection will likely be
more robust in coverage across south-central and southeast Texas
where a very moist uncapped environment will support scattered to
numerous storms. This convection is also likely to send outflow
boundaries northward which should spark new development. That
being said...will keep PoPs at 20-30% across our area for today.
Any storms that develop will still be capable of producing strong
downburst winds given the relatively dry air below 850mb.

By Wednesday...the shortwave spreading into Louisiana will head
into the Arklatex region. This will be favorable for a little more
convection during the afternoon hours across North
Texas...especially east of Interstate 35. PoPs are currently at
30% for this time with activity diminishing in coverage after
sunset.

On Thursday...a stronger shortwave trough moves through the
central Plains. This will allow mid-level flow to strengthen.
There is some indication that a complex of thunderstorms will
develop across Oklahoma late Wednesday night and move southeast
into North Texas. Will have some 30-40% PoPs on Thursday to
account for this. Even if a complex of storms doesn`t develop and
move into the area...the shortwave is likely to push a weak
frontal boundary into the region on Thursday. This would likely be
sufficient for afternoon thunderstorms to develop...favoring our
eastern counties.

We will continue to see the upper ridge remaining off to the west
through the weekend which will allow for at least isolated
convection each afternoon across parts of North Texas.
Temperatures through the remainder of the week will be near
normal.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  79  97  78  97 /  20  20  30  20  30
Waco                95  75  97  77  97 /  30  20  30  20  30
Paris               94  75  94  74  92 /  30  20  30  20  50
Denton              96  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  30  20  40
McKinney            95  75  96  76  94 /  20  20  30  20  40
Dallas              97  80  97  79  96 /  20  20  30  20  30
Terrell             96  76  95  76  94 /  20  20  30  20  40
Corsicana           96  76  95  77  95 /  20  20  30  20  40
Temple              94  75  95  76  95 /  30  20  30  20  30
Mineral Wells       96  74  97  74  97 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/82



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