Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
...18Z PACKAGE...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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