Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE WEST OF A KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ TO KBWD /BROWNWOOD/ LINE AS OF
23Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 25-30 MPH.
THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
01-02Z. THUS HAVE CARRIED TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z
FOR KAFW AND KFTW...AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z FOR THE REST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
STARTING AT 20Z.

THINGS ARE SIMILAR AT WACO EXPECT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...04 TO 08Z.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  83  66  82  63 /  60  60  30  60  40
PARIS, TX             70  82  68  81  64 /  50  70  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            70  83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  65  79  61 /  60  60  60  60  30
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  80  65 /  60  60  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  69  83  64 /  50  60  50  60  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  68  82  66 /  50  60  30  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            71  81  67  83  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  82  65  79  61 /  70  40  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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