Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 282036
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Abundant low level moisture will remain in place across the entire
region until a cold front arrives around the middle of next week.
The combination of this moisture coupled with energy associated
with several upper level impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft
will result in scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms nearly every day through the middle of next week.
In the short term we expect a few storms to develop over Central
Texas and the Concho Valley late this afternoon/early this evening
where the cap is the weakest and instability is quite high. There
is no good focus for storms, so we expect coverage to be limited.
However, if storms do develop, additional convection is possible
on any outflows. Hail and lightning will be the primary threats,
especially south of Interstate 20 and west of Interstate 35 where
CAPE is in excess of 4000 J/KG.
Sunday morning will be cloudy but rain-free. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave
approaches from the west. It appears that storms will be most
numerous across the Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening.
These storms will organize into a complex that will move
east/southeast across the region overnight Sunday through Monday
morning. There is a very good chance that storms could end in
most locations by midday Monday but we will still carry low pops
through Monday night due to timing uncertainties. Storms Sunday
through Monday will have the potential to become strong to severe
as well as to produce locally heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorm chances will increase again on Tuesday/Tuesday night
as a southern branch upper low approaches from the Desert
Southwest. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely Wednesday when a
stronger upper low moves across the Northern Plains and sends a
strong cold front southward through the Central and Southern
Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind
the cold front and linger across the area through the end of the
Dry and cool air at the surface and a building ridge aloft will
bring mostly clear and cooler conditions next weekend with lows
in the 50s and lower 60s Friday and Saturday and highs mainly in
the 70s and lower 80s.
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Widespread low clouds continue to linger right along the I-35
corridor and areas east. Light winds have generally resulted in
slower erosion of the cloud cover but conditions are expected to
improve through early afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through much of the remainder of the day. Farther
south...visible satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field
spreading north. This is where the better moisture is located and
it`s northward progress should continue into the evening hours.
Weak forcing will also spread across central Texas later this
afternoon and at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop. Best coverage of thunderstorms will be on
the leading edge of the better moisture...generally west of
Interstate 35 and all of the major airports. So...no thunder is
currently forecast through tonight...although some impacts are
expected for western departures/arrivals through late evening. We
will have to watch for better coverage of storms as they should
try to move east with time.
Otherwise...another round of low clouds are expected across all of
North and Central Texas again tonight persisting into early Sunday
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 86 69 86 70 / 20 20 40 50 20
Waco 71 86 68 85 69 / 30 30 30 40 20
Paris 68 85 67 84 68 / 10 20 30 40 20
Denton 69 85 67 85 68 / 20 20 50 50 20
McKinney 69 85 67 84 69 / 20 20 40 50 20
Dallas 72 87 70 86 71 / 20 20 40 50 20
Terrell 70 86 68 86 69 / 10 20 30 40 20
Corsicana 71 86 69 85 69 / 20 30 30 40 20
Temple 71 85 69 83 69 / 30 30 30 40 20
Mineral Wells 69 85 66 84 68 / 20 30 50 50 20