Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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047
FXUS64 KFWD 210550 AAD
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1150 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Skies have cleared across most of North and Central Texas Monday
afternoon and evening. With clear skies, light winds and wet
grounds from recent rains, areas of fog have developed mainly east
of I-35/I-35E and the fog has become locally dense. The TAF sites
will be on the western edge of the fog overnight into Tuesday
morning and the lowest visibilities should be to the east of the
TAF sites. Winds will come around to the west at around 5 knots
and then northwest around 10 knots as a cold front approaches and
then moves through the region. This front that was southeast of an
KSPS-KABI line as of 05z will reach the Metroplex 09-10z and Waco
12-14z. Any fog that develops at the TAF sites should dissipate
by 14z. Winds will increase to around 15 knots mid to late morning
with some gusts over 20 knots possible. Wind speeds will diminish
to 5 to 8 knots by 00z Wednesday.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
Main update was to issue a Dense Fog Advisory and add
in a mention of light rain showers through midnight
across Central Texas. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is in good shape.

Water vapor imagery at this hour revealed the broad upper trough
that resulted in severe weather across portions of Central TX late
last night/early this morning continues to churn across the
region. This feature has ushered in a very diffuse frontal
boundary which continues to slide south and eastward through
western zones. Farther east, lingering cloud cover on the
downstream side of the broad trough continued to slowly depart the
forecast area. The clearing skies, coupled with light winds
(courtesy of the weakening pressure field associated with the
approach of the diffuse front), and recent rainfall across eastern
zones should favor areas of dense fog. With visibility already
slipping below 1-2 miles in spots, went ahead and issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for areas along and east of a Bonham to Corsicana to
Hearne line through mid-Tuesday morning. Areas farther west of
this line could experience some patchy fog, but winds are expected
to shift towards the west which should largely mitigate the fog
potential here.

Other change was to add a mention of showers/sprinkles across
Central Texas where enough lift around the base of the trough
appears to be responsible for the light returns on the Central
Texas radar. This activity should be short lived and will only
have low rain chances prior to midnight.

The rest of the forecast looks good and only minor tweaks to
temperature and winds were necessary. Updated products have
already been transmitted.

24-Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

Water vapor imagery shows the large upper low spinning across much
of Texas this afternoon with moisture continuing to stream
northward across much of East Texas. Drier air has moved in across
West Texas where skies are mostly sunny. A few higher based
cumulus clouds are noted on visible satellite imagery across West
Texas associated with the colder temperatures aloft but no
additional precipitation is expected tonight. The ongoing area of
light rain across the far eastern counties will continue to slowly
move east through the remainder of the day and should end by early
evening.

Our main concern tonight will be the potential for areas of fog to
develop...especially across our eastern counties. With the upper
low slow to move eastward...a surface trough still remains off to
our west. This keeps moist southerly flow in place across the
region. As temperatures cool tonight under thinning cloud
cover with wet ground...areas of fog are likely to develop. This
is most likely to happen across the eastern half of the CWA where
drier air will be slower to move in from the west. The surface
trough will move east of the area Tuesday morning allowing much
drier air to filter into the region.

The remainder of the forecast looks very warm and dry. Mid level
ridging will pass overhead Tuesday through Thursday allowing
temperatures to climb into the mid 70s on Tuesday and lower 80s on
Wednesday. By Thursday...a strong shortwave trough will be
approaching the Central Plains. This will result in a deepening
surface cyclone across Kansas. Wind fields will veer around to the
south-southwest with a dryline advancing eastward through the
afternoon. Deep vertical mixing will result in gusty southwest
winds and temperatures warming well into the 80s and possibly as
high as 90 degrees across some of our western counties. We will
continue to monitor this as it could have some fire weather
impacts by late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Otherwise...a weak front will slide through the region on Friday
cooling temperatures back down into the 60s and lower 70s. A
reinforcing shot of cooler air will filter into the region on
Saturday. At this time...no precipitation is expected either day.
Rain chances may increase slightly as we head into early next week
but no major systems appear to approach the region over the next 7
days.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  75  49  80  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                52  75  47  81  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  72  48  76  53 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              51  75  45  79  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            48  74  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  75  50  80  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             50  75  48  78  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           52  74  50  79  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  76  47  81  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       50  76  44  83  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ094-095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-161-162-175.

&&

$$

58/24



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