Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220956
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into the region today
behind a cold front. The surface pressure gradient will slowly
decrease through the day as a deep surface low moves from eastern
Kansas to Iowa. There will be a period this morning through early
afternoon where the wind across the northern half of the CWA will
approach wind advisory criteria, but it will be marginal and
relatively brief so have opted not to issue a wind advisory at
this time.

The breezy and dry conditions will elevate the fire threat across
about the western half of the region this afternoon, but it looks
like critical fire weather conditions will not occur since the
strongest winds will not coincide with the driest part of the day.
We still anticipate some fire starts today, but fire spread
should be limited. We will issue a Grass Fire Danger Statement
generally west of a line from Gainesville to Hillsboro where fire
starts will be most likely.

Cold air advection today will be offset by full sun and some
downslope wind component so afternoon highs should still reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures tonight will cool quickly
with a decreasing wind, a clear sky and some cold air advection.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s in the northwest to the
middle 30s in the east and southeast.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Sunday/

The upper flow will become zonal and somewhat detached across the
southern states Tuesday and Wednesday which will keep the weather
quiet across the region. High temperatures will be near or above
seasonal normals, but since Gulf moisture will remain cut off,
overnight temperatures will still drop into the 30s.

Gulf moisture will steadily increase across the region Thursday
as a shortwave approaches from the west and a surface trough
develops across the Northern and Central High Plains. This will
result in a subtle warmup that will be most noticeable Thursday
night. A few showers will also be possible early Friday morning
when a weak shortwave translates east across the state.

Better moisture return is expected Friday ahead of another
fast moving shortwave. Increasing large scale lift and some mid
level destabilization will result in a slightly better chance of
showers and even a few thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

The shortwave will move east of the region Saturday which will
open the door to a cold front. Lift along and just behind the
cold front will bring additional showers and some thunderstorms
followed by drier and cooler air Saturday night through Sunday.
Since this will be a fast moving system, rainfall amounts should
be relatively light and the potential for severe weather appears
low.

The cold front will cool temperatures back closer to seasonal
normals with lows Saturday night in the 30s and highs Sunday in
the lower and middle 50s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1125 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/
/06Z TAFs/

The dryline has moved through the Metroplex TAF sites and will
move through KACT within a few hours. West winds between 10-15 kts
will prevail overnight under mostly clear skies.

Wind speeds are expected to increase Monday morning as a front
moves through the region. The winds will become more
northwesterly at a 290-300 degree direction as they start to
increase around 15-16Z. During the afternoon hours, the winds will
be sustained at 18-22 kts and gusts of 28-32 kts. The winds will
start to diminish between 22-00Z and will fall to less than 10 kts
in the evening hours. VFR will prevail otherwise with some
passing high clouds.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  35  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                63  31  61  31  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               56  33  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              58  31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  32  57  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  36  59  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             59  34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           60  35  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              63  31  62  31  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  30  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25


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