Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 300447
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT ALL AREA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
THUNDERSTORM FREE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS OVER MARSHALL AND BRYAN COUNTIES ARE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
AN AXIS OF LARGER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO
CURRENT OBJECTIVE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR STORMS DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RESERVOIR OF CAPE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE QUITE A BIT
OF CAPE/ENERGY FOR STORMS WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WE STILL NEED SOME LIFT TO CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS
LIFTING MECHANISM...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IF A
LIFTING MECHANISM BECOMES MORE APPARENT TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES AS FORECAST...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING STORMS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FORCING FOR THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE
ADDED LIFT FOR STORM FOCUS. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY
DISTINGUISHABLE BOUNDARY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH JACK...WISE...DENTON AND COLLIN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY GENERIC
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY A GUSTY WIND THREAT.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
MUGGY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD APPROACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING.  COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY
SUNSET. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH OVERALL WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTH TEXAS REMAINING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM EITHER FOR LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE...THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE WEEK...THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-102 RANGE
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE...INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS FAR
SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRI/SAT BUT MAY NEED TO
BUMP THESE UP IF IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL COME FARTHER
SOUTH. EITHER WAY...THINK ITS PROBABLY A GOOD BET THAT SOME
LINGERING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  95  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  93  74 /  20  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  73  92  75 /  30  20   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            74  95  74  94  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  94  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  95  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  74  93  75 /  30  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  93  74 /  30  20   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  91  72  92  72 /  20  20   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  95  73 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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