Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232025
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Deep ridging throughout the U.S. Gulf Coast has returned sunshine
to water-logged areas, finally shunting the fiendish plume of
tropical moisture off to the northwest. Within the remaining
stream of moisture, showers and storms will impact portions of
West Texas and Oklahoma, but this activity will remain primarily
northwest of our area. Across Southeast and East Texas, rich
moisture remains beneath the mid-level ridge, and some diurnally
driven showers and storms have developed this afternoon. Although
surface dew points across our CWA might imply a similar moisture
profile, we are in a relative dry slot between the two areas of
convection. When combined with little forcing for ascent, the
cumulus field across North and Central Texas is showing little
depth despite little if any inhibition. Aside from a slight chance
in northwest zones, expect the remainder of the afternoon will be
quiet.

Large-scale subsidence should preclude any convective development
on Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures gain a degree or two.
On Thursday, the ridge will begin to weaken, opening the door for
some scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms across East
Texas. Rain chances will climb further on Friday as an easterly
component to the low-level flow allows moisture to surge in from
the east and tropical moisture aloft invades on the underbelly of
the decaying ridge. Weak forcing should limit the severe
potential, but rich moisture and unidirectional shear promoting
training could reintroduce some flooding concerns. The renewed
influx of deep tropical moisture will keep precipitable water
values above seasonal normals, maintaining daytime rain chances
during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...

Days with high temperatures below 90 degrees this month:
   DFW Airport  5
   Waco         6
(most since August 2004)

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites this afternoon and
evening with scattered to broken CU between 3500 and 5000 ft
through sunset. A 35 knot low level jet will set up again tonight
and bring a surge of low level moisture and MVFR ceilings back to
the region. Ceilings between 1500 and 2000 ft will reach Waco
around 10Z and shortly after at the Metroplex TAF sites. These
low clouds should lift and scatter by late morning Wednesday,
much like today.

A south wind will continue through Wednesday morning between 10
and 15 knots along with some gusts near 25 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  75  93  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
Waco                74  92  73  93  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Paris               73  92  72  92  73 /   5   5  10  20  10
Denton              74  93  72  94  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
McKinney            74  93  73  93  73 /   5   5   5  20  10
Dallas              76  94  76  94  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
Terrell             74  93  74  93  74 /   5   5   5  20  10
Corsicana           74  92  73  92  74 /   5   5   5  20  10
Temple              72  93  71  92  71 /   5   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       72  93  71  93  71 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

79/25



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