Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280244 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
944 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND
WACO AROUND 18Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WIND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT
THE METRO TERMINALS AND FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT WACO. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP IN THE TAFS BUT WILL MENTION STORMS IN
THE VICINITY.

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FT ON MONDAY.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  69  90  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   0  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




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