Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242038
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE IMPACTS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT...DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED
IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 90S...WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH TRIPLE DIGITS RETURNING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS TOMORROW ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TOMORROW ALSO BELOW
CRITERIA. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT. HOWEVER...THAT SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM THE FACT THAT IT
WILL STILL BE A HOT DAY TOMORROW AND PERSONS OUTDOORS NEED TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM THE HEAT.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100-106
DEGREES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PATTERN SHIFT
BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. ON
SUNDAY...A FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY STALL OVER THE
REGION AGAIN AND THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT THAT
ARRIVES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SECOND FRONT ARRIVES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED WEST AS TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS INCLUDING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AREA.

THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
BEHIND MONDAYS FRONT AND KEEPS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LONGER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS MID WEEK FRONT THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE...WHILE WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE FINER DETAILS REGARDING WHERE
AND WHEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AND HOW COOL/WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW...DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT WEEK WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOOKING TO OCCUR WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT AN MCS MAY
AFFECT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN
THE PLAINS AND ALSO HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.


82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS AT 17Z TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND SOUTH SATURDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 101  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              75  99  77 100  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             72  95  75  98  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            74  98  77  99  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  76  99  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            78  98  80 102  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  98  77 100  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  76  99  75 /   5   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74 100  76 102  75 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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