Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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867
FXUS64 KFWD 201142 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

With the upper level low still to our west and deep south to
southwest flow above the cool surface layer, additional areas of
rain are developing and spreading north this morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail this morning, even with periods
of light rain, but the afternoon remains in question. Some
guidance is persistent that mid level clouds will clear to the
east around midday and a layer of MVFR cigs will develop as the
clouds clear. Confidence in this possibility is low and for now
will prevail a SCT015-020 group this afternoon.

As the skies clear this afternoon and the winds become light this
evening, there is a good possibility fog will develop over the
saturated soils in advance of an approaching front. Have prevailed
2SM overnight, but it`s possible visby could be less than 1/2-1SM.
The front is expected to move through around 11Z at all the sites
and the fog may persist for a few hours after FROPA.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/
A line of thunderstorms continues to progress steadily east across
the eastern-most counties of North and Central Texas early this
morning. The bowing segment over the southeastern counties has a
history of producing damaging winds, and this threat will
eventually shift east of the forecast area as the leading edge
pushes east.

The upper level trough responsible for the convective weather
still remains west of the forecast area. An enhanced area of
ascent appears to be lifting north along the eastern flank of the
upper trough. This is resulting in a second line of storms over
South-Central TX, which may end up affecting areas already hard
hit by damaging winds earlier. Instability has decreased
considerably in the wake of the initial line of storms, so chances
are that these additional storms will remain below severe limits.
Localized flooding associated with the multiple rounds of
convection will be the primary threat across the southeastern
counties through sunrise.

Stratiform precipitation will continue to affect the eastern
third of the region this morning, and may linger into the early
afternoon over the eastern-most row of counties. Rain will shift
east of all counties mid to late afternoon as the upper trough
continues trekking east across the state.

The upper level system is progged to transform into a cut-off low
Tuesday before shifting east-southeast across the northern Gulf.
The resulting shortwave ridging over Texas will keep conditions
warm and dry Tuesday through Thursday, with many areas reaching
the 80s Wednesday and Thursday under sunny skies. A cold front
will push through the area of Friday, cooling things to near-
normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. Rain chances will
return late Sunday into next Monday as a shortwave trough and
another cold front affect the area.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  52  77  50  80 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  51  76  48  80 /  30   5   0   0   0
Paris               68  53  73  50  76 /  70  20   5   0   0
Denton              71  48  76  47  79 /  30   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  50  75  48  79 /  40   5   0   0   0
Dallas              71  53  77  51  80 /  30   5   0   0   0
Terrell             71  52  76  50  79 /  50  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  54  75  52  80 /  50   5   5   0   0
Temple              72  51  77  48  80 /  30   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  47  77  46  82 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/30



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