Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232334 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
634 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across all of North and Central Texas this
evening and this should continue for several more hours. All of
the convective activity has come to an end across the region. The
upper trough over the western U.S. will get a little closer to the
Southern Plains overnight. This will keep a moist southerly flow
in place across all of North Texas. Widespread MVFR cigs should
begin to develop and spread north by midnight and continuing into
the morning hours on Saturday. Will continue to show MVFR at Waco
by 9Z and spreading into the Metroplex by 10Z. Moisture content
in the lowest 1500 ft is very high and with a modest low level
jet developing tonight...some brief IFR cigs will be
possible...especially at Waco.

Thunderstorm chances will increase through the day Saturday with
best chances during peak afternoon heating. Coverage will
generally be 20-30% but should increase through tomorrow night.
Will keep the VCTS in at the Metroplex airports through the
afternoon hours.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/
Significant changes are on the way for North and Central Texas
this weekend after a string of hot and dry weather. The upper
level ridge remained over the region today with a large upper
level trough over the western Conus. Within the trough, an upper
level low currently over Utah will move northeast into the
northern Plains by Sunday. However, another upper level low will
cut-off in the base of the trough, forming over Arizona and New
Mexico Saturday night, then retrograding over Baja California Sunday
and Monday. This changing upper level pattern will weaken the
ridge over our area, and a cold front will move into the region
Sunday night and Monday. All this combined with moisture in place
will result in rain chances through the weekend.

For the remainder of today and tonight...Isolated shower and
storm activity has mostly been located south of Interstate 20 this
afternoon. Each rain cell has been fairly short lived, not
impacting any one particular location for too long. Expect
isolated convection to continue through sunset, with a threat for
lightning and gusty winds. Will keep low chances for a few showers
in our northwest counties overnight, but am anticipating a quiet
night overall. Overnight lows tonight will be near or slightly
warmer than this morning due to increasing moisture and additional
cloud cover, both aided by a decent low-level jet.

On Saturday...the upper level ridge will be weakened as the upper
level trough to our west nudges east. With southerly flow
continuing to bring moisture into the area, a greater number of
showers and storms is expected, mostly in the afternoon and early
evening hours. Coverage of rain is still expected to be scattered
at most but rain chances increase Saturday and continue to
increase into Sunday. Any showers or storms will be moving north
or northeast with a threat for lightning and gusty winds. It`s
possible a storm could become marginally severe, but any severe
threat is expected to be very isolated in nature. If this were to
occur, it would most likely develop in our southeastern counties
where instability will be slightly better. Better rains will be
ongoing to our west and northwest on Saturday, closer to the upper
level trough. High temperatures on Saturday will be slightly
cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

On Saturday night, better rain chances will continue to our
northwest and west, but we could see a better coverage of rain in
our northwestern counties as the upper level trough continues to
nudge east.

Sunday through Monday...rain chances really increase Sunday
through Monday as the cold front approaches and then moves across
the region. During this period, the cut-off upper level low will
be retrograding away from us, taking the best upper level dynamics
and heaviest rains with it, but there should still be sufficient
lift associated with the frontal system for nearly everyone to
receive some rainfall. Most of the lift for rain will come in the
form of forcing along and behind the front, and also from
isentropic lift. South to northeast winds in the 850-700 mb level
along and behind the front will be the main areas of lift
resulting in widespread rainfall. The best rain chances and
highest rainfall totals are expected to be west of Interstate
35/35W where 2-4 inches of rain is possible. The highest totals
are expected to be west of Highway 281. Along and east of
Intestate 35/35W, rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected.

These rainfall totals are expected to be spread out over at least
a 48 hour period, and we do not anticipate widespread flash
flooding. Isolated instances of flash flooding may occur where
heavy rainfall rates occur, but any localized flooding problems
during this event are anticipated to be mostly urban and small
stream. At this time, we do not feel a Flood or Flash Flood Watch
is needed, but will be reevaluating over the next 24 hours. The
front should fully pass through the southern portions of the CWA
on Monday, ending most of the rain chances by Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday...Due to model discrepancies on Tuesday,
will leave low rain chances in the forecast, but anticipate the
Tuesday through Friday timeframe will be dry as an upper level
ridge builds back across the Southern Plains. Temperatures next
week will thankfully be slow to rebound, spending much of the week
in the 70s and 80s for highs and 50s and 60s for lows.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  91  73  85  68 /  10  30  30  70  70
Waco                77  91  73  87  70 /  10  40  20  60  70
Paris               71  90  71  87  67 /  10  30  20  40  50
Denton              73  89  72  82  64 /  10  30  40  70  70
McKinney            73  89  72  85  66 /  10  30  30  60  70
Dallas              78  91  74  86  69 /  10  30  20  70  70
Terrell             75  91  73  87  68 /  10  30  20  50  60
Corsicana           75  90  73  87  70 /  10  30  20  50  60
Temple              75  91  72  86  71 /  10  40  20  60  70
Mineral Wells       71  87  71  79  63 /  10  40  50  80  80

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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