Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302305
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CUMULUS FIELD OVERHEAD SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN AS SURFACE
HEATING WANES...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
TAF SET IS THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM /WHICH IS SLATED TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY/
AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING.

A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRATUS...THOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF IT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH TO CREATE A CEILING. TYPICALLY THIS RESULTS IN
STRATUS AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...SO
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE MVFR AT
KDAL AND KDFW ALONG WITH KACT...WHILE MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE OTHER 3 TAF SITES. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE MORNING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TAKES PLACE...WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY BUT A STOUT CAP
SHOULD STAVE OFF CONVECTION. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
ENTER THE PICTURE BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS. THIS LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
HAS HELPED PULL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THAT TRACK FOR THE
UPPER LOW. THIS MEANS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STRONG AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF I-20 INITIALLY. THE LINE SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES HOLDING EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  92  75  88  62 /   5   5  10  40  20
WACO, TX              71  92  75  90  64 /   5   5   5  30  30
PARIS, TX             69  89  72  87  60 /  10   5  10  50  30
DENTON, TX            68  92  74  88  58 /   5   5  10  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  91  74  88  59 /   5   5  10  40  20
DALLAS, TX            73  92  75  89  63 /   5   5   5  40  20
TERRELL, TX           73  92  74  89  61 /   5   5   5  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  91  73  90  63 /  10   5   5  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  73  90  63 /   5   5   5  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  93  71  89  57 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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