Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 262055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/15



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