Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241655
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THIN...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WILL DO A QUICK GRID ADJUSTMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 12Z TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS 15 TO 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 KNOTS
15-17Z SUNDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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