Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230803
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
303 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
North and Central Texas should continue to see a relatively dry
pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over
the southeast CONUS continues to expanding westward over the area.
Meanwhile, a broad longwave upper trough was over the western U.S.
Areas northwest of the DFW Metroplex will continue to see low
chances for showers and thunderstorms today, as southwest flow
aloft with embedded shortwave energy continues over that area.
Instability will be relatively low, though precipitable water
values will remain around 2 inches with the potential for brief
heavy downpours possible by this afternoon. We are not expecting
any flooding issues, as all activity should be progressive with no
one area seeing extensive periods of heavy rainfall.

The upper high will continue expanding west over North and
Central Texas tonight through Thursday allowing for a few days of
drier and warmer weather. Highs will warm back into the lower to
middle 90s with the usual late Summer humidity continuing as well.

The western U.S. upper trough will amplify over the High Plains
and off the lee of the Rockies and weaken the upper high over our
area Friday into the weekend. This will allow another weak cold
front move southeast into the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi valley. The combination of the surface front and
increasingly moist deep southern fetch of moisture will bring
convective rain chances back to much of the area Thursday night
into Saturday. With the tropical and moist adiabatic nature of the
airmass in place and weak winds aloft, severe weather is not
expected. However, some locally heavy rainfall will return to
especially the eastern half of the area with precipitable water
values of 1.5-2 inches moving back west from Louisiana.

Relatively drier air will filter in behind the front from the
north-northeast on Sunday with just low lingering rain chances
across the southeast counties. The first half of next week should
see highs around or slightly below seasonal normals in the upper
80s/lower 90s. Will maintain a dry forecast for the early half of
next week, as the subtropical high expands from the Mid-Atlantic
states to the Southern Plains. A few easterly wave disturbances
will track across South Texas and it is possible they could track
close enough to our far southern counties for some low rain
chances next week. For now, we will leave these out with best
forcing remaining along and south of the I-10 corridor.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/
VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period
with the exception of some brief MVFR cigs Tuesday morning.

Low stratus should develop across the Hill Country in the next
few hours and will be ushered northward by an intensifying low-
level jet. MVFR cigs should spread into Waco by 11-12z and persist
for a few hours before lifting and scattering later Tuesday
morning. There is a chance that IFR cigs may exist at Waco at
times, but do not anticipate this being widespread enough to
warrant a mention in the TAF. For the Metroplex, the potential
for long-lived MVFR cigs is low, but cannot rule out some
intermittent cigs around FL020 between 12-14z, thus have
introduced a tempo to account for this. Otherwise, winds will be
south/southeast through the period and gusty at times during the
day Tuesday with gusts around 20 kts possible.

-Stalley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  76  93  76  94 /   5   5   5   5  10
Waco                91  75  91  74  92 /   5   0   5   5  10
Paris               91  73  92  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20
Denton              91  73  92  72  94 /  10   5   5   5  10
McKinney            91  74  92  74  93 /  10   5   5   5  20
Dallas              92  77  93  76  94 /   5   5   5   5  10
Terrell             91  74  92  74  92 /   5   5   5   5  20
Corsicana           91  76  91  75  91 /   5   5   5   5  20
Temple              91  74  90  73  91 /   5   0   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       91  71  92  71  93 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

/05


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