Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 271735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78

&&

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE
SHIFTED SOUTHWEST...BASED OFF OF THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT 15Z...
ROUGHLY FROM CANTON...TO TERRELL...TO FORT WORTH...WHICH IS
DIVIDING THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING IN WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
OUR DEWPOINTS AREN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER...SITTING IN THE 60S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES
SURGING UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND RAISED THEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
ALL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY.

AJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  84  71  82 /  30  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             82  69  83  70  80 /  30  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  70  83  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  84  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            86  72  84  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  70  82  68  82 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78


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