Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORMS EARLY.

METROPLEX...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED METROPLEX TAF SITES (ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
IS STILL WITHIN THE VICINITY RANGE RING OF KGKY). DFW AIRPORT
REMAINS IN SOUTH FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
BELOW 12KTS (THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS). THE PRIMARY
ISSUE FOR METROPLEX COMMERCIAL AIRPORTS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NE/SE ARRIVALS AND S/E DEPARTURES. OF THE
FOUR AFOREMENTIONED ROUTES...THE BONHAM VORTAC CORNERPOST IS
ALREADY LARGELY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT STARVED OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CUMULUS WILL REMAIN.

WACO...
STRONG STORM UPSTREAM IS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ONCE IT PASSES...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  60   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  30   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  50   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  60   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  20   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





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