000
FXUS64 KFWD 160933
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...TODAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MOVES TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOWER THAN
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AS CLOUDS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AND STORMS COULD REDEVELOP. THERE WILL
STILL BE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE CAP
STRENGTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SINCE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH
AND IF THE CAP DID BREAK...STORMS WOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP AND HAVE A
VERY GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TOWARD
TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING
THE DAY AND REACH THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THE CAP TO BREAK. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION SOME
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AGAIN...IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO FORM...THEY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THAT...BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEST COAST
TROUGH.

OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE...MORE LIKE APRIL THAN MID
MAY.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  71  89  72  92 /  30  10   5  10  10
WACO, TX              87  73  91  73  90 /  40  10  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             77  67  83  68  85 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            85  70  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          81  69  86  71  87 /  40  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  71  88  72  90 /  30  10   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           81  70  86  71  88 /  40  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  70  88  71  88 /  40  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  91  71  90 /  40  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  67  92  68  96 /  20  10   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/79