Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 252022
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN RACING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION
WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AS MID/UPPER 80S CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. AT THE SURFACE...A DRY LINE IS PUSHING
EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA...BUT THE IMMINENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE A STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS MAY LIMIT OUR OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND 6
PM...SPREADING EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AFTER
SUNSET...WITH ONLY A MINIMAL LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS AS FAR
EAST AS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA.

AS THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WEAKENS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER AS THE MAIN TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FAST-PACED
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE OUT AHEAD OF AND UNDERCUT THE CONVECTION.
THIS COMBINED WITH UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG IN ANY ONE AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. WE
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTIVE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM BONHAM TO KAUFMAN TO TEMPLE. A RELAXING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
LESSENING WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TOMORROW IN THE COOL AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SUNNY
AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES NORTH TEXAS. A ZONAL AND RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IS
BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 112 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

SEVERAL CHALLENGES ABOUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-LATE EVENING
ACROSS DFW...THEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT WACO. UNTIL THEN...IT
WILL REMAIN VFR AS A SURFACE DRYLINE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST AND
WE AWAIT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AIRPORTS IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME.

VFR WITH GUSTY S WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING
AT ALL AIRPORTS. THERE IS A LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PRODUCED
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
APPROACHES WACO. IT IS POSSIBLE AN AMENDMENT FOR VCTS FOR WACO
WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN 20Z-21Z.

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE INTO DFW AREA AROUND MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND RACES
SOUTHEAST. WILL ADVERTISE VCTS AT 03Z...THEN A 2 HR PREVAILING 5SM
-TSRA PERIOD BETWEEN 05Z-07Z AS THE FROPA OCCURS ACROSS THE DFW
METRO AIRPORTS. WILL HOLD ON TO VEERING FLOW AROUND TO THE SW
MID-LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASE NW WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HRS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
SETTLE DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KTS...THEN TO AROUND 10
KTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BOTH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS JUST BEFORE
AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FROPA.

SAME SITUATION AT WACO REGIONAL...EXCEPT ABOUT 2-3 HRS LATER ON
ALL TRENDS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  63  45  73  47 /  50  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  43  73  46 /  50  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             51  62  41  65  44 /  60  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  63  42  72  45 /  60  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          50  62  41  71  43 /  60  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            52  63  45  73  50 /  50  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           52  63  43  70  45 /  50  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  43  70  48 /  50  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  64  44  74  46 /  50  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  63  42  74  46 /  50   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159.


&&

$$

05/30


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