Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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061
FXUS64 KFWD 202144
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
344 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave near Corpus Christi this afternoon will move
northeastern across southeast Texas this evening and into
Louisiana overnight. Showers and thunderstorms have developed over
the Texas Coastal Bend into Southeast Texas along a weak frontal
boundary. Most of this activity will remain southeast of the
forecast area, but a few storms could brush the southeastern zones
this evening. Thus have left a mention of isolated showers and
thunderstorms for the 6 pm to midnight period areas along in those
counties. At least some patchy fog is expected to develop
overnight across areas mainly southeast of a Temple to Emory line.
The fog may end up be more widespread and could extend a little
more to the northwest, but for now will leave it as is. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s
southeast.

South to southwesterly winds will increase in speed Saturday as
lee side cyclogenesis occurs thanks to a strong jet streak that
will overspread the Southern Plains. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase area wide Saturday and Saturday night as an
upper level low moves out from northern New Mexico across the
Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. Given the forecast
soundings, some strong thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening with some downbursts possible. The upper
level low will move into Arkansas by midday Sunday. Meanwhile a
Pacific cold front will move through the region Saturday night and
Sunday morning. Chances of some rain showers will linger through
early Sunday afternoon across the northeastern zones.

In the wake of the cold front expect gusty northwesterly winds
Sunday. These strong winds along with minimum relative humidities
in the 20s to mid 30s and dry/dead vegetation may lead to elevated
fire weather conditions Sunday. After highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s Saturday, highs on Sunday will only reach the 60s.
Dry weather is expected for the rest of the week. Temperatures
will moderate during the early part of next week as southerly
winds return. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s Monday and
upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. Another cold front will move through
the region Tuesday night. No rain is expected with this system,
but it will bring temperatures down to near seasonal normals for
the rest of the week.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with southwest
winds of 12-17 kts. There is a chance for thunderstorms across
southeastern TX this afternoon but this activity would be south of
the Waco TAF site. MVFR status should also develop across
southeast TX overnight where better moisture resides, but this
will also stay south and east of Waco.

On Saturday, a deepening low pressure system across the TX
Panhandle will bring an increase in mid-level moisture. Isolated
showers will be possible at all airports beginning Saturday
morning, but will be a bit more likely later Saturday afternoon
and evening. Instability is not incredibly favorable, but some
isolated lightning strikes will be possible with any activity
later in the afternoon. However, have not included any thunder
mention in the DFW TAF at this time. With plenty of dry air
beneath the layer of moisture where showers and storms will be
rooted, this activity will pose a threat for some gusty downburst
winds, even from marginal storms.

-Stalley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  71  49  64  42 /   5  30  40  10   0
Waco                48  72  50  65  40 /   5  30  30   5   0
Paris               49  68  47  61  39 /   5  30  50  30   0
Denton              47  70  47  63  38 /   5  30  40  10   0
McKinney            48  69  48  62  38 /   5  30  40  20   0
Dallas              52  71  49  64  42 /   5  30  40  10   0
Terrell             51  70  48  65  40 /   5  30  40  20   0
Corsicana           53  72  49  65  42 /   5  40  40  10   0
Temple              50  72  50  65  41 /   5  30  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       46  71  47  63  38 /   5  30  30   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/58



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