Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Ceiling trends at all TAF sites. Potential for IFR at
Metroplex TAFs this morning.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---MVFR stratus persists this morning
with IFR cigs developing east and south of area terminals.
Overnight AMDAR data and preliminary data from the 12 UTC FWD RAOB
align well with hi-res model guidance at this point, supporting a
medium confidence forecast of brief IFR ceilings over the next
several hours. A few showers were noted to the south and southwest
of area terminals, but at this time, it`s unknown as to whether
or not they will survive the trek northward into area terminals.
At this time, I`ve left the mention of showers out of the TAFs.
If this activity does persist northward, it would likely arrive
in about 4 hours and a VCSH or -SHRA may be warranted. It is
possible that IFR cigs may continue into the early afternoon, but
confidence to continue this mention is lower here. Nevertheless,
MVFR cigs with light east to east-southeast winds are expected
through the early afternoon. For this afternoon, I`ve gone with
more of an optimistic forecast with VFR this afternoon, though it
is possible that MVFR prevails a little longer than currently
forecast. Regardless, MVFR cigs, should VFR occur, will return
Thursday evening and continue into Friday morning.

For the Waco TAF site---MVFR cigs have arrived, but have been AOA
FL020. This trend is expected to continue this morning, with
perhaps a few brief periods of cigs in the FL010-FL015 range.
There may also be some very minor restrictions to vis due to BR.
VFR should return early in the TAF period just before noon.
Southerly winds are expected here through the day with MVFR
stratus during the overnight hours into Friday morning.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 334 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Low rain chances will continue during the short term period as a
diffuse frontal boundary has stalled across Central TX. Weak
ascent atop the cooler air to the north of this boundary has
yielded a few showers this morning.

For Today---The potential for showers will continue today as
low level flow becomes more southerly. While above normal warmth
is expected with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, widespread cloud
cover should be enough to keep temperatures from climbing too far
above seasonal values. With the breadth of moisture expected to
be confined to the lowest 200 to 300 mb of the troposphere, it`s
likely that rain amounts will be light. There may be a brief lull
in the coverage of echoes this afternoon as the flow aloft
subsides briefly.

Tonight, low level winds will increase and this should help drive
an uptick in shower activity. The best potential for rain will be
near and east of the HWY 287 corridor. Similar to previous
forecast periods, rainfall amounts should remain light. It`ll be
a mild night by mid-November standards courtesy of 10 mph
southerly flow and widespread cloud cover. Overnight low
temperatures are only expected to tumble down into the upper 50s
and 60s area-wide.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Friday will be warm and breezy as southerly winds increase in
response to deep surface low pressure centered across the Central
High Plains. A downslope wind component coupled with warm air
advection and some afternoon sun will yield above normal
temperatures with highs from the middle 70s in the northeast to
the middle 80s in the west. Wind speeds may approach advisory
criteria in the afternoon, especially for areas that see the most
vigorous boundary layer mixing. Wind speeds will decrease a bit
after sunset Friday once the boundary layer decouples and the
surface low moves rapidly east, but it will still stay on the
breezy side.

A cold front will enter into the northwest zones during the pre-
dawn hours Saturday with a rapid progression southward during the
day. The front should have no problem reaching the Texas Coast on
Saturday afternoon, leaving North and Central Texas with strong
and gusty northerly winds, a clearing sky and cooler temperatures.
Afternoon highs Saturday will range from the middle 60s in the
northwest zones to the middle 70s in the south. A few showers may
accompany FROPA on Saturday but the best moisture and rain
chances will reside east of the forecast area. We will still
maintain some low PoPs across the eastern zones.

Wind speeds will decrease after sunset Saturday and rapid
radiational cooling will occur due to dry and clear conditions.
Low temperatures by sunrise Sunday will range from the middle 30s
in the northwest to the middle 40s in the far south. It appears
that winds will stay up just enough to keep all temperatures
above freezing.

Sunday/Sunday night will be clear, cool and calm with highs in
the lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Low level warm air advection will begin on Monday as surface high
pressure builds east and another surface low deepens across the
Northern and Central Plains. A shortwave is progged by the ECMWF
and GFS to move quickly across the state Monday, but with only
meager moisture return ahead of this system, we don`t anticipate
any precipitation.

The passage of the shortwave trough axis will bring large scale
subsidence to the region along with the passage of another cold
front on Tuesday. The front should not have any quality moisture
to work with so have kept a dry and cool forecast for both Tuesday
and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  65  80  63  69 /  20  20  10   5   0
Waco                77  67  81  65  73 /  20  20  10   5   5
Paris               63  59  77  61  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
Denton              67  64  80  59  67 /  10  20  10   0   0
McKinney            66  63  77  61  68 /  20  20  10   5   0
Dallas              71  66  80  64  70 /  20  20  10   5   0
Terrell             70  65  79  64  70 /  20  20  10  10   5
Corsicana           74  66  79  64  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
Temple              77  67  81  64  74 /  20  20  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  63  83  58  67 /  10  20   5   0   0




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