Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82




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