Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150806
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CLEAR SKY AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS OPTIMAL VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS AS
OF 3 AM AND MANY MORE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 9 AM.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...IT WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED POPS ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER
NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE INVASION OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  69  50  72 /   5   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              64  38  69  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  37  63  44  68 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            64  38  67  48  71 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  35  65  46  70 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            64  42  67  50  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           61  37  66  48  70 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         61  39  67  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  36  69  50  75 /   5   5   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  37  70  47  69 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ119>123-134-
135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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