Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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