Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Main concern during the TAF period will be potential for MVFR
stratus at area terminals. GFS as well as highres guidance both
show decreasing cigs Monday morning across North and Central
Texas. Right now...confidence is too low to prevail MVFR at
Metroplex terminals...but will mention SCT030 in the TAF
explicitly. Later shifts may need to refine this forecast and
potentially introduce TEMPO MVFR.

For Waco...MVFR stratus looks much more likely given the better
quality low-level moisture that is expected across Central Texas.
In fact...SREF guidance shows about a 50 percent chance of IFR
cigs. Do not believe IFR will be persistent enough at this time to
introduce prevailing IFR...but like the MVFR at KDFW...later
shifts may need to introduce at least TEMPO IFR. Cigs should
improve slowly through the morning...likely returning to VFR by
1600Z...but cigs will likely not get much above FL040. Another
question is the fog potential at KACT. Some highres guidance
(namely the RAP and NAM) shows patchy fog developing across parts
of Central Texas (including near KACT) right around 1200Z...but
given the expected patchy and short-lived nature of any
fog...left this out as well.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough centered over
southern Utah this morning. To the east of the circulation, a
large area of height falls associated with stronger forcing for
ascent has spread into West Texas and much of the Plains.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across much of
West Texas extending northward through much of the central Plains.
As we go through the day today, one of several strong vorticity
maxima embedded in the overall large trough will eject eastward
into the northern Plains, taking the strongest forcing for ascent
northward with it. With the overall large trough axis still
positioned over the western U.S. through tonight though, a
persistent area of lift will be in place across west Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will most likely remain well
west of our area today through tonight as the main trough will be
very slow to move eastward. The only impacts that we may see in
North Texas would be some increased cloud cover through this
afternoon and tonight from thunderstorms to the west. This may
help keep temperatures down a few degrees from yesterday, but it
will remain warm across the region. Highs today will be in the
lower 90s areawide.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/
/Monday Onward/

The main focus of the extended forecast continues to be rain
chances through the middle of the week and cooler temperatures
through the 5-7 day time frame. While these will be some of the
highest rain chances of the month of September, the most
widespread rain is expected to remain west of our forecast area.
Locations to the west of I-35 are likely to pick up at least a
small amount of rainfall through the next 5 days, but areas to the
east could remain mostly dry. Meager lapse rates/instability will
mean very little potential for severe storms throughout this time
despite the increased shear. Some heavy rainfall in our western
counties will be the main concern.

The deep trough positioned across the western half of the country
will continue generating widespread showers and thunderstorms
across West TX to begin the week. Most of this activity is
expected to remain west of the forecast area through Monday,
although a few showers or weakening storms could move into our
westernmost counties by late afternoon or evening. The strongest
ascent is expected to remain west of the area through Tuesday as
well, and as a result, so will the highest rain chances. However,
as the trough`s associated cold front slowly approaches North TX
on Tuesday afternoon and evening, there will at least be some
more favorable lift across our west and northwest zones. In
addition, increasing cloud cover, especially through the mid
levels, should help hold temperatures a few degrees cooler on

Some higher rain chances should occur on Wednesday west of I-35
as the front finally becomes draped through North TX. However,
upper ridging should be occurring across southeast TX as the upper
trough retreats westward slightly. This will continue to keep our
area deprived of dynamic ascent aloft, with really the only lift
available being from weak convergence along the front. This should
limit the eastward extent of precipitation throughout this time
frame. As the front slowly sinks southward into Central TX on
Thursday and Friday, the higher rain chances will follow. Still,
the stronger synoptic ascent will be displaced to the west and
southwest of the forecast area.

A batch of cooler and drier air should work into the area on
Friday and Saturday as a secondary cold front pushes through the
Plains. This will largely bring rain chances to an end with
considerably drier air finally arriving. While temperatures will
have been cooler primarily due to increased cloud cover throughout
the week, they will be lower next weekend due to the cooler air
behind this secondary front. This setup could deliver a few very
pleasant early fall days with temperatures near or below normal
along with low humidity.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  74  92  75  91 /   5   0  10  10  20
Waco                91  71  92  72  92 /   5   5  10  10  20
Paris               89  69  90  69  90 /  10   5  10   5  20
Denton              90  71  90  72  89 /   5   5  10  10  20
McKinney            90  70  90  71  91 /   5   0  10  10  20
Dallas              91  75  93  75  92 /   5   0  10  10  20
Terrell             91  71  91  72  92 /   5   0  10   5  20
Corsicana           90  71  91  72  92 /   5   0  10  10  20
Temple              89  70  90  71  90 /  10   5  10  20  20
Mineral Wells       88  70  90  70  84 /   5   5  10  30  30




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