Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 061012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.