Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270850
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO VEER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP IN SPEED TO AROUND 15
KTS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...NOTICEABLE CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS A STEADY PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY TOWARDS TEXAS. FIRST ON DECK SHOWS UP LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL ENCROACH UPON AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS AREA OF LIFT
COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH VERY SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT HIGHEST THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING A `WASH OUT` OF
THE ENTIRE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...JUST PERIODIC RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1125 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS NOW MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND KACT
AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  46  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              75  46  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  41  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            68  44  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  43  77  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            69  46  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  43  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  46  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  46  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  46  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



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