Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 111744 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NET RESULT FOR ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT LOW
EXTENDED FROM NEAR AUSTIN TO ABILENE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL OR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO WACO...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES NEAR KACT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

MIDDAY TAF ISSUANCES REFLECT A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 14 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

 /09

&&

.UPDATE...
A TUTT LOW SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUDS
AND WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
CONVECTION TODAY. FOR THE UPDATE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS...THEN RETRACT WESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL OCCUPY MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE/LL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING 100S THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON DRY.

BEYOND MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING AS THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES NORTHERLY AND TAPS
INTO COOLER AIR LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN
ALBERTA. A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL FORM SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW OVER
OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...BUT COULD CROSS THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT
AS CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE INCREASES FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COULD SEND A MCS DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT WITH 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. SINCE THIS EVENT REMAINS A LONG WAYS
OUT FORECAST-WISE...MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
WHICH WOULD EITHER DIMINISH OR INCREASE THIS RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
FOR NOW...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
THEN COOLING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78  99  79 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  97  76  98 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             96  75  97  76  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            98  76  98  78  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  77  98  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            98  79  99  79  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  78  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  75  97  76  98 /   5  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  75  99  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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