Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230903
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Complex of thunderstorms continues to move through southern
Oklahoma and into our Red River counties this morning with a well
defined bow echo likely to produce some severe wind gusts over the
next few hours. Atmosphere out ahead of this line of storms from
I-20 north is moderately unstable with mixed-layer CAPE near
1500j/kg with a healthy low level jet feeding into the system.
Local acoustic profiler indicates southeast winds at 20kt at 500ft
which increase to 40kt at 1800ft per the latest FWS VAD wind
profile. This fairly strong southerly flow and instability should
keep the complex moving into North Texas through early morning
affecting areas primarily north of Interstate 20. The threat for
severe weather (mainly damaging wind) appears that it will be
confined to a few of our Red River counties as instability
diminishes farther to the east and low level winds weaken. We will
have to monitor for additional development farther west which
could eventually dive south into a better environment. So through
the late morning hours...we will have the highest PoPs along our
northern tier of counties...diminishing to 20% from Interstate 20
and areas south.

There are a couple of concerns through the next 6-12 hours or so
with respect to the ongoing convection. Low level warm advection
is quite strong...and several new thunderstorms have developed
well behind the main complex within the mature cold pool. These
storms so far are staying primarily in Oklahoma but we will have
to see if additional development gets close to North Texas. Any of
these storms would likely pose a hail threat. Of slightly higher
concern is the slowing southward progression of the current line
of storms. As we head later into the morning...the low level flow
is expected to veer...becoming oriented more parallel with the
current line or its outflow boundary. As we heat up...there could
be renewed development in the same general area as the current
convection...which could result in a localized flash flood threat.
Rainfall rates with some of these storms have been as high as
3"/hr. If convection persists or trains in any given area for very
long...flash flooding would be an increasing concern. This could
also be problematic later tonight if additional thunderstorms move
over areas that are getting heavy rainfall now. At this time...no
flash flood watch will be issued given uncertainties in the
evolution of this morning`s activity...however...this potential
will be monitored closely.

The current forecast will indicate a gradual weakening of this
complex through late morning...with more stable air in its wake
into the early afternoon. We will have 20% chances of new
thunderstorm development this afternoon across North and Central
Texas. Similar to yesterday...the dryline will likely be the focus
for afternoon/evening thunderstorms across West Texas with the
best chance for storm organization across the Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma. These locations will again be closer to any
appreciable forcing aloft. By early evening...the atmosphere
across North Texas should have recovered and become moderately
unstable again. Thunderstorms will once again have the potential
to make a run at North Texas so we will have the highest PoPs
across the northwest half of the CWA.

On Tuesday...flow aloft will become more southwesterly which
should help strengthen the capping inversion across the region.
The dryline will make a push a little farther east by late
afternoon...so will keep some 20% PoPs across our far western
counties...otherwise most areas should remain dry.

Capping will be strongest on Wednesday with little in the way of
convection expected across North Texas. Temperatures will also
warm in response and should be in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across most of the area.

By late Wednesday night...a strong shortwave trough will be moving
into the 4-corners region with ascent spreading east into Texas.
Some elevated moisture will spread across North Texas late
Wednesday night in a region of steep lapse rates. This may result
in some spotty elevated thunderstorms so will include a 20% chance
during that time. Otherwise...thunderstorms are expected to really
increase in coverage during the day Thursday with additional
chances into Friday as the shortwave moves east across the
southern Plains.  Severe weather will be possible on both days.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
MVFR ceilings had already entered Central Texas as of 11 PM. These
ceilings should reach Waco between 06 and 07Z and the Metroplex
TAF sites between 08 and 09Z. A thick cirrus shield associated
with thunderstorms across the Low Rolling Plains will also cover
the region for most of the night. Ceilings should remain above
1000 FT across the Metroplex but will fall below 1000 FT at Waco
before sunrise Monday. Ceilings should slowly improve through the
morning with VFR conditions expected Monday afternoon and evening.

A south to southeast wind will prevail through Monday evening at
speeds between 8 and 14 knots. Some higher gusts are possible
overnight...especially west of the TAF sites where some downdrafts
associated with decaying storms are likely.

The complex of storms currently over the southeastern Panhandle
and southwest Oklahoma should continue its eastward move into
Oklahoma and have little impact on the Metroplex terminals
overnight. However...some back building is possible overnight and
these storms will have the potential to move south of the Red
River before sunrise. The most likely scenario is that the storms
will weaken as they move into North Texas with only some spotty
showers expected between 12Z and 15Z.  This storm complex will
need to be monitored closely since there is a low potential that
it could turn right...remain intact and impact the northern
portions of North Texas.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  72  88  73  90 /  30  30  10  10   5
Waco                86  71  89  74  90 /  20  10  10  10   5
Paris               85  69  84  70  86 /  50  20  20  10   5
Denton              86  68  87  71  90 /  40  40  10  10   5
McKinney            85  70  86  73  87 /  40  30  20  10   5
Dallas              88  72  89  74  90 /  30  20  20  10   5
Terrell             87  70  87  72  88 /  30  20  20  10   5
Corsicana           87  72  89  73  89 /  20  10  10  10   5
Temple              85  70  87  72  89 /  20  10  10  10   5
Mineral Wells       86  69  87  71  91 /  20  30  20  20   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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