Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 222345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE METROPLEX
OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM WICHITA FALLS TO BRECKENRIDGE
TOWARD KERRVILLE. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST
BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. IT IS POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH KFTW AND/OR
KAFW BEFORE DISSIPATING BUT WILL NOT MENTION -RA IN THE TAFS THIS
EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH OCCURRING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF VCSH FROM THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE DFW TAF AIRPORTS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-15Z BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. A MIX OF
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...IT WILL
DRAG AN ATTENDANT TROUGH WITH IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS
MEAGER...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...
IMPROVING THE CHANCES THAT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE VERIFIED AT THE
SURFACE. DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT IN THE MID-LEVELS...MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL MEAN RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S REGION WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
DFW AIRPORT WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH...BUT THE RECORDS AT
WACO ARE LIKELY UNTOUCHABLE. (SEE NUMBERS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.)

THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO A MORE APPROPRIATE LATITUDE NEAR THE
TROPIC OF CANCER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INVADE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
WHICH WILL DICTATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH A
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/GEM CONSENSUS...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT ALSO MEANS
LESS FORCING AND A STRONGER CAP THAN THE ECMWF...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY LESS PRECIP.

25

&&


.CLIMATE...
          FRI OCT 24          SAT OCT 25          SUN OCT 26
      FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD

DFW    85 / 90 IN 2003     87 / 89 IN 1992*    86 / 92 IN 1950
WACO   85 / 91 IN 1992*    87 / 94 IN 1992     87 / 94 IN 1992

   * AND IN EARLIER YEARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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