Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290903
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD
FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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