Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 270010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
610 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017
Low ceilings had temporarily scattered out across North Texas late
this afternoon but MVFR ceilings will return around sunset and
continue to lower through the evening. IFR ceilings are likely
overnight/Monday morning at all TAF sites as the low levels of the
atmosphere saturate. A few showers and storms will be possible
through the evening as a shortwave rotates across the region. The
best storm chances will be generally east of the TAF sites late
this evening/overnight. Ceilings will improve through the morning
with VFR conditions expected Monday afternoon.
A south to southeast wind will prevail through Monday afternoon at
speeds between 8 and 14 knots.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/
Low clouds rapidly overspread the forecast area this morning on
40 knot low level jet. The effects of the southerly surface winds
can also be seen in the dewpoints that have climbed from the upper
20s to mid 30s at 6 am to the lower 40s northeast to upper 50s
south as of 3 PM. Scattered showers have developed mainly east of
a Temple to Paris line.
As strong warm advection continues and lapse rates steepen ahead
of a shortwave, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop. With
CAPES expected to climb to 600 to 1000 J/Kg and and 0-1 KM bulk
shear of 15-20 knots, some hail up to 1 inch wilL be possible
mainly southeast of a Killeen to Dallas to Paris line.
As the shortwave moves eastward, a weak cold front may sink south
of the Red River before becoming stationary overnight and then
lifting back to the north on Monday. The GFS continues to keep
this boundary north of the Red River, while the NAM, Canadian,
ECMWF and TTU WRF bring the front farther south to varying
The dryline will move into the western part of the forecast area
Monday afternoon. Although dynamic forcing is not strong,
scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon in the warm moisture atmosphere ahead of the dryline.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected, some strong to
severe storms will be possible mainly east of I-35. Temperatures
will be warmer with highs expected to range from near 70 northeast
to around 80 degrees west.
The dryline will retreat Monday night but will once again push
east into the forecast area on Tuesday. There will be a severe
weather potential mainly along and east of the I-35 Tuesday
afternoon and night. A cold front will enter the northwestern part
of the forecast area overnight Tuesday night and sweep through
the southeastern zones Wednesday morning. Expect gusty northerly
winds to advect drier air in behind the front. The combination of
the gusty winds and relative humidities in the 20s will result in
elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon.
Cooler and dry weather is expected Wednesday through Friday
night. Rain chances will return next weekend as an upper level
low moves eastward from northwestern Mexico.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 78 62 82 54 / 40 30 5 30 30
Waco 58 78 63 81 55 / 50 30 10 30 30
Paris 51 69 60 77 53 / 70 40 10 40 50
Denton 54 76 60 82 50 / 40 30 5 30 30
McKinney 54 74 61 81 53 / 50 40 5 30 40
Dallas 57 77 63 82 54 / 50 30 5 30 40
Terrell 56 75 63 79 55 / 60 40 10 40 40
Corsicana 59 76 63 81 57 / 60 50 10 40 40
Temple 59 78 62 81 56 / 40 30 10 30 30
Mineral Wells 52 80 56 83 49 / 20 20 5 20 20