Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 281810 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

SEVERAL CHALLENGES STILL EXIST ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE NEXT
24 HRS. THE FIRST WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SECOND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TOUGH LIFTING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND IF/WHEN/AND WHERE IT TAPS
INTO THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF KBRO.
MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR THE WACO
AREA. MANY VARIABLES WILL PLAY A ROLE DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...NO SURFACE FOCUS TO SPEAK OF...AND
TIMING.

A VFR FORECAST FOR ALL DFW METRO TAF SITES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...UNLESS THIN AXIS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE TO OUR WEST
CAN GET CLOSER...FEEL THAT VCSH SHOULD COVER THINGS WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH 7-8 KTS AFTER 09Z. AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING SYNOPTIC FEATURES LEAVES NO CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
THUNDER JUST YET ON FRIDAY.

AT WACO...WILL CARRY VFR AND ADVERTISE A BRIEF 3-HOUR WINDOW FOR
VCTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE WHERE
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE...WIND TRENDS
WILL BE THE SAME AS DFW AIRPORTS.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHEAST...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO VEER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL POUR INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH RESULTING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY
ADVANCING THE ACTIVITY ANOTHER 100 MILES INLAND. WEAK MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS...BUT GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST...
WITH THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THE ONGOING CONVECTION
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS POOLING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
ACTIVITY...INFLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST ZONES. HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW-END AFTERNOON POPS...BUT IF ANYTHING REACHES AREAS FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO GRAHAM...IT WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SPLIT AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES WITH ONE CELL RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS...THE TWO UPPER
HIGHS WILL MERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES COAST-TO-COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW POSSIBLY
FORMING OVER OR JUST WEST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS BEST.
TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...PWATS WILL HAVE
INCREASE TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
LIFT...ALTHOUGH MUCH BETTER TO THE NORTH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG ON FRIDAY AND DO NOT
FAVOR TILTED UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AT OR ABOVE 1800 J/KG AND LI/S UP
TO MINUS 6. SOME STORMS WILL WILL ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
BUT A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WEAKNESS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ONLY THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT
SHIFTS EAST. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  93  76  93 /  10  30  50  40  30
WACO, TX              96  75  94  74  94 /  20  20  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             93  73  92  71  88 /  10  30  50  50  40
DENTON, TX            96  75  92  73  91 /  10  40  50  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  92  72  91 /  10  30  50  50  30
DALLAS, TX            95  78  93  76  93 /  10  30  50  40  30
TERRELL, TX           95  76  93  74  91 /  10  30  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         95  76  94  73  92 /  20  20  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            95  74  94  73  93 /  20  20  40  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  93  72  94 /  10  40  50  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25





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