Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221550 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Made a few cosmetic changes to precipitation chances, wx type and sky
cover for the remainder of the this morning and into the afternoon---
otherwise the rest of the forecast remains in good shape.

12 UTC RAOBs across the region revealed a fairly stout subsidence
inversion is in place across the area. That being said, some weak
convection has managed to develop along what appears to be a low
level weak confluence zone along and near a Gainesville to DFW to
Centerville line. Recent radar imagery shows that much of this
convection this morning has struggled to produce lightning. As a
result, a majority of the activity this morning is expected to
remain mainly in the form of showers with perhaps a few isolated
lightning strikes.

The latest hi-resolution model guidance does suggest that more
robust convection may be possible this afternoon. Overall large
scale ascent is expected to remain meager at best and with cloud
cover persisting, except across far northeast zones, it may be
difficult to generate a large amount of surface based instability.
With mid level flow expected to be weak this afternoon, I think
the probability of widespread severe weather remains low, but
cannot completely disregard a risk for downburst winds or
marginally severe hail. Heavy rain will also be possible with
minor flooding as good low level moisture exists and storm motions
are expected to be slow.

The rest of the forecast remains unchanged. Will re-assess the
potential for a complex of storms to move into the CWA this
evening and through the overnight hours with the latest guidance.
Updated products have been transmitted.



/ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
/12Z TAFs/

Primary concerns - timing ceilings and shower/storm potential.

MVFR ceilings are taking hold across the Metroplex. Light easterly
flow suggests that the ceilings may dip below FL010, but with the
sun already on the rise, have decided to forgo including any IFR
conditions at Metroplex airports. However, will maintain IFR
throughout much of the morning at Waco while hinting that nearby
LIFR ceilings and fog may also impact the airfield.

Showers have begun to develop across portions of East Texas. This
activity will likely wane as the nocturnal LLJ subsides, but the
associated low-level boundary and any new outflow boundaries that
result will remain this afternoon and could serve to focus
additional development this afternoon. This could result in some
in-flight impacts, including east departures and arrivals through
the Cedar Creek cornerpost, but the prospects for convection at
Metroplex TAF sites appears low. As a result, have removed mention
of showers/storms, but isolated activity will still be possible.
The chances are better at Waco and will maintain VCSH for much of
the afternoon.

A shortwave may result in more widespread showers and storms to
our west this afternoon. This activity could approach the I-35
corridor late tonight into Monday morning, but this scenario is
still too unlikely to include in the TAFs. More likely is another
stratus intrusion, which has been introduced.



Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase today and persist
through much of the upcoming week with a large upper trough
expected to linger across the western U.S. A severe weather threat
will accompany thunderstorms through much of this period.

This morning`s surface analysis shows a plume of rich Gulf of
Mexico moisture in place across much of the state extending
westward into the Panhandle and up into western Kansas. Across
east Texas, on the western periphery of surface high pressure,
some drier air is in place. This effectively results in a moisture
boundary extending from near Jasper to Athens to Dallas with
east-northeast winds on the drier side and southerly winds on the
moist side. While weak upper ridging is in place aloft, there is
some surface convergence along this boundary so we will have to
watch for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm through
the late morning hours across our east and southeast counties.
Later today...focus will turn back to the west as scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the
dryline. The dryline should remain west of our area but
thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon will likely be
aided by increasing ascent from an embedded shortwave trough
approaching from the west. This should keep the activity going
well into the evening hours where one or more clusters of
thunderstorms is expected. For this afternoon...will have the
highest PoPs confined to our far western counties with some 20/30
percent chances across the far south to account for any lingering
late morning activity. There is a severe threat with any
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon...including the threat
for large hail and damaging winds.

Moderate to strong instability across North Texas and a
strengthening low level jet late this evening should allow any
clusters of thunderstorms to move southeast into our area tonight.
Again, the favored area for thunderstorms will be areas along and
west of Interstate 35. Any organized complex of thunderstorms
would pose a damaging wind threat late this evening or overnight.

Monday`s forecast is somewhat dependent upon what happens
overnight tonight. If we get an organized complex of thunderstorms
to move through...then that would likely stabilize things for the
better part of the day on Monday. The exception would be our
eastern counties where low level convergence along our moisture
boundary remains. So for Monday...will have the highest PoPs in
the east.

By Monday evening into Tuesday and Wednesday...increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will aid low level warming and a
strengthening capping inversion across the area. Think that it
will be rather difficult for thunderstorms to develop or move into
the region with little in the way of upper forcing to help. The
only exceptions might be our extreme eastern counties Tuesday
afternoon when capping is not quite as strong and across our far
northwest counties late Tuesday evening when dryline activity may
be able to sustain itself for a few hours. Otherwise...t should be
dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Better thunderstorm chances arrive Thursday and Friday as a strong
piece of shortwave energy ejects out into the southern Plains. The
dryline should also move a little farther east these days with the
stronger westerly winds aloft associated with the shortwave
trough. Similar to earlier in the week...severe weather will be
possible both Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal norms today and tomorrow with
our warmest days expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  70  84  71  87 /  20  40  20  10  10
Waco                83  70  84  71  86 /  20  30  20  10  10
Paris               82  66  82  69  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
Denton              83  68  80  70  84 /  20  50  20  20  10
McKinney            82  69  81  70  85 /  20  30  20  10  10
Dallas              85  70  84  71  87 /  20  40  20  10  10
Terrell             84  68  82  70  86 /  20  20  30  10  10
Corsicana           84  69  84  70  86 /  30  20  20  10  10
Temple              82  70  83  71  85 /  30  20  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       84  69  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  20  10


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