Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291707 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1207 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
To convect or not to convect: that is the question. The better
question is where the showers and thunderstorms will end up, as
there is plenty of evidence to suggest there will be convection.
Based on the 12UTC sounding, synoptic and mesoscale models, there
is high confidence there will indeed be scattered showers and a
thunderstorm as well. Whether or not these will impact the
terminal sites is not as clear cut.

Much like the past few days, expect convection to increase in
coverage between now and 2 PM. Mesoscale and convection allowing
models suggest there will be some thunder in the area in the mid
to late afternoon, and again with another surge around 00UTC. Have
decided to carry VCTS in the Metroplex taf sites through the bulk
of the afternoon, with a tempo group for a larger coverage area
between 23 and 02UTC.

Fox

&&

.UPDATE...
The main changes to the forecast this morning were to increase
PoPs across eastern/southeastern zones for this afternoon and
early evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains
unchanged.

Visible and IR satellite imagery both show the presence of a good
surge of easterly moisture streaming the Gulf coast. Similar to
yesterday, this plume appears to be associated with an embedded
vorticity max rotating around the northern periphery of the
upper low along the TX/LA coastline. The increase in moisture
combined with daytime heating and weak synoptic scale ascent
should help to foster the development of isolated to scattered
convection. The best chances appear to be across southeast zones
where the juxtaposition of synoptic scale ascent and moisture
transport will be most likely. This is supported by recent HRRR
guidance which has performed fairly well over the past several
days. The threat for widespread severe weather will remain low
today as weak deep layer wind shear will not support any organized
storm modes (convection will be single/multicellular in nature).
With PWATs still on the order of 1.5 to 2.0" (per total blended
PWAT products and regional RAOBs), heavy rain will remain the
primary hazard, though isolated strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out. The heavy rain may result in some minor flooding, especially
for areas that experienced heavy rainfall yesterday (parts of
Anderson, Freestone and Leon Co`s).

A bulk of the more widespread convection will likely be later on
in the day closer to the 20 to 23 UTC time frame. As a result,
I`ve not made any large changes to temperature trends. Outside of
adjusting sky conditions for current trends/expectations, the rest
of the forecast is in very good shape. Updated products have been
transmitted.

24-Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/
The combination of clear skies and light winds has resulted in
some patchy fog development across the southeastern half of the
forecast area early this morning. Fog has been mainly limited to
areas which received rain yesterday, so most locations should
remain free of any visibility restrictions this morning. Where fog
does develop, it should remain shallow and patchy in nature, which
means that it will burn off quickly around mid morning.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop again as the surface
heats up this afternoon and a moist and unstable airmass remains
in place. The system responsible for our rain chances is a weak
upper level trough currently located over the upper Texas coastal
region. Numerous thunderstorms are already occurring along the
Southeast Texas Coast in the vicinity of the trough. This activity
will spread inland across southeast Texas as temperatures climb
into the mid and upper 80s. Our best chances of rain will occur
adjacent to this region over our southern and southeast counties
where moisture levels are highest and weak ascent associated with
the upper level feature will be present. Rain chances will
generally decrease the farther north you go, though we will keep
slight chance POPs in place all the way to the Red River.

Meanwhile, the ridge that was present along the East Coast is
already shifting back to the west, and will generate subsidence
across much of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
chances during this time will be slim for all areas. This is when
we should see temperatures climbing to above-normal values with
highs topping in the mid 90s across most of the area by
Wednesday.

The upper ridge will continue to amplify as it shifts slowly west
and an upper trough digs down through the Great Lakes region. This
is the same upper trough which is expected to pick up the tropical
system in the Gulf and carry it northeastward (well away from
having any affect on our weather). By Thursday, the ridge will be
centered over West Texas but extend northward all the way through
the Dakotas. A large region of north to northwest winds aloft
between the ridge to the west and the trough to the east will send
a late Summer cold front southward through the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. It appears that the front will make it at
least partially through North and Central Texas before washing
out. Convergence along the boundary will probably be enough to
generate scattered showers and a few storms Thursday, but
subsidence from the ridge aloft should limit the overall
coverage.

Low rain chances will continue on Friday near the remnants of the
front. We have gone lower on the forecast high temperatures for
Friday due to the slightly cooler airmass behind the boundary,
with high temperatures remaining in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A
hot and dry forecast is still planned for the weekend into early
next week as the upper ridge drifts southeast and parks overhead
for several days.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  75  92  77  95 /  30  30  20  10  10
Waco                90  73  90  73  93 /  40  40  30  10  10
Paris               92  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
Denton              92  73  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
McKinney            92  73  92  73  95 /  20  20  20  10  10
Dallas              93  76  93  77  96 /  30  30  20  10  10
Terrell             93  74  93  75  94 /  30  30  20  10  10
Corsicana           92  74  92  76  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
Temple              89  72  90  73  93 /  40  40  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       91  72  90  71  92 /  20  20  30  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/24


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