Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190930 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/09Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

DECAYING PREDAWN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX WILL
MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY OUTFLOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF FTW/AFW. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING PUSH...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PROCEED IN SOUTH FLOW.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THIS MORNING. THE RESULTING
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST
OF TAF SITES...BUT IF EVENTUAL OUTFLOW IS ABLE TO INVADE THE I-35
CORRIDOR...STORMS COULD IMPACT OUR AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. UNLESS
THE ACTIVITY IS BOTH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
CONCERNS...AFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE METROPLEX NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CONVERGING ON THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. ONE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL AFFECT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
AFFECT KFTW AND KAFW WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KFTW MIGHT SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD...WHICH COULD AFFECT
KFTW/KAFW THROUGH 09Z...THUS TAF AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

KACT WINDS ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...UNLESS DIRECTLY AFFECT BY CONVECTION...THE TAF WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





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