Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WHILE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND LIKEWISE
THE BRUNT OF TODAY/S CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS
OVERHEAD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
1.5 INCH PWATS...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS TEMPTATION TO INCLUDE A VCTS AT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO MENTION. BUT AS ALWAYS WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF HIGHER COVERAGE DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST WE WOULD
AMEND TO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LINGERED THROUGH MID DAY AT KDAL
BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING SHORTLY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /  10  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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