Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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847
FXUS64 KFWD 082115
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM AND SO DOES THE
RED FLAG WARNING. SEVERAL GRASS FIRES ARE NOW BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS AREA AND EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 6-7 PM WHEN WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. THERE WILL BE
SOME HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT BUT WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WE WILL REMAIN IN A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS AT H850 WILL WARM MUCH OF THE REGION INTO
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY SEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LACKING IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT.

THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN OR
UNDERGO SOME CHANGES STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY SENDING ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1122 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES AND A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS IS RESULTING IN STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 35
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON /18Z-00Z/. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  59  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              32  63  36  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             30  53  33  60  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  58  34  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  56  35  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  39  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           32  57  36  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  37  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            32  65  38  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     31  63  36  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

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