Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 081142 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 18z Saturday. High clouds
that were generally southeast of a KBBD-KMNZ-KSLR line at 1130z
will continue to move away as the base of an upper level trough
moves eastward. Northwest winds at 5 to 8 knots will back around
to the west or southwest later this morning and shift back around
to the west after 08z as a weak front approaches.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 359 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

High clouds that were southeast of a Comanche to Bonham line at 3
AM will move out of the forecast area by mid morning as the base
of an upper level trough moves eastward. After a cold start with
temperatures in the teens northwest to lower 30s southeast, highs
will reach the mid 40s east to the mid 50s west. Winds will be
light west to northwest.

It will be clear and cold tonight with west to northwest winds at
around 5 mph. Lows will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/
/Saturday through Thursday/

Precipitation-free conditions are anticipated in the long term
forecast period. Temperatures will seesaw as both airmass will
promote large diurnal curves and a few fronts traverse the area.

For Saturday and Sunday---Another weak front/wind shift will
slide southward through the area on Saturday. West winds will
shift to the northwest allowing for slightly cooler air to slide
southward. This air may modify somewhat as it descends from
slightly higher terrain and should keep high temperatures on
Saturday in the upper 50s to low 60s. It will feel a little cooler
than that, however, given the stiff north wind of 10 to 15 mph,
however. Given the very dry troposphere and the fact that large
scale ascent is largely absent, a dry forecast seems like a safe
bet with FROPA.

Saturday night into Sunday morning should be another chilly
night, especially across southeastern zones where the center of a
surface ridge axis may set up. Overnight low temps will fall to
near or just below 32 degrees courtesy of clear skies for most
areas (except across parts of the D/FW Metroplex), light winds and
low atmospheric humidity. Temperatures will quickly moderate on
Sunday as the broad troughing to the east results in southwest to
west winds at the surface. This added downslope component coupled
with the dry airmass will allow temperatures to quickly rise, with
Sunday afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s areawide. A few
mid/high clouds may start to impinge on southwestern zones as a
weak plume of Pacific moisture streams in ahead of a Baja upper
low. There could be some fire weather concerns on Sunday and again
on Monday as west winds and continued drying of fuels occurs. At
this time, however, winds look to be a tad on the lighter side and
further curing of fuels may be hampered by what appears to be a
increase in dense mid/upper level cloud deck in upper level RH
prog charts/soundings. Regardless, we will keep an eye on this.

For Monday and Tuesday---After another chilly start in the
morning, temperatures on Monday will climb to above normal levels
with widespread upper 60s and low 70s readings. This will be
mainly in response to west winds ahead of another frontal boundary
forecast to slide through the South Plains later in the day into
Tuesday morning. Cooler conditions are anticipated on Tuesday as
north winds overspread the area. FROPA again will be largely
uneventful as moisture remains confined to central and southern
parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

For Wednesday and Thursday---Conditions will moderate once again
on Wednesday as west and southwest winds quickly return. The
adiabatic compression and drying could necessitate the need for
some fire weather headlines out across western zones as rain
chances look to be near zero and temperatures will be above
normal. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the 60s and
70s areawide. Thursday could bring forth some changes

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  34  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                51  30  60  30  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  28  54  27  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              49  28  58  26  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            46  28  56  28  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              49  35  58  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             47  29  58  29  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  32  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              51  32  60  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       52  30  59  26  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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