Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230848
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
348 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level ridge that has kept North and Central Texas
unseasonably warm and mostly dry for the last several days is
finally starting to break down. Water vapor satellite loops this
morning show a large upper level trough over the western U.S. with
a low centered over the Great Basin. The low will lift north
northeast during the next couple of days as the upper trough
hangs out across the western U.S. The upper low will then move
across the northern plains and into southern Ontario by the middle
of next week. Meanwhile, the models indicate a shortwave will
move down the western side of the ridge and deepen over eastern
Arizona/western New Mexico Saturday night. To varying degrees, the
ECMWF, GFS and Canadian indicate that the low will then sink south
or southwest through the middle of next week while upper level
ridging develops across Texas by midweek.

Some patchy fog may develop across Central Texas this morning
toward daybreak. The high resolution models are indicating
that some warm advection showers may develop and move northward
across the eastern zones this morning. With increasing moisture
today, we should start to see some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop this afternoon across the forecast area.
The Precipitable Water value was around 1.1 inches on the 23/00z
FWD RAOB. PWs should rise to around 1.5 this afternoon and to
nearly 2 inches on Saturday. As a series of weak shortwaves move
out ahead of the main upper level trough to our west, we should
see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area Saturday with the best chances being across the
northwestern zones which will be closer to the best lift.

More widespread rain is expected overnight Saturday night
through Sunday night with the approach and then passage of a
cold front. Expect 1 to over 3 inches of rain during the
this period with locally higher amounts. This may result in
some flooding issues. We will keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday with lingering
chances across areas southwest of a Breckenridge to Palestine line
Tuesday night. An upper level ridge is then expected to build
which should keep the region dry Wednesday and Thursday.

We will have another unseasonably warm day today with highs in
the lower to middle 90s. With increased cloud cover Saturday
highs will be slightly cooler - upper 80s to lower 90s. The cold
front is expected to move into the northwestern zones Sunday
morning and move through Central Texas by Sunday evening. This
along with the more widespread rain will result in much cooler
temperatures with highs expected to range from the upper 70s
northwest to the upper 80s southeast. The below seasonal normal
temperatures are expected to prevail next week with highs in the
70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday...and upper 70s to mid 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. Low will be in the 50s and 60s for most of
next week.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR ceiling and convective potential on Friday.
Otherwise, VFR.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---There is a potential from brief MVFR
stratus around FL020 on Friday morning across as low level
moisture rapidly lifts northward. MVFR stratus should quickly lift
and scatter out through mid-morning Friday. The Metroplex TAF
sites will be wedged between two areas favored for convection.
Areas to the east and southeast near SLR and PSN will be the
beneficiaries of warm/moist advection northward. With daytime
heating, a few showers and isolated storms could develop, but this
activity should remain to the south and east of the Metroplex.
Further to the northwest, sufficient forcing for ascent will graze
portions of western North TX. Again, this area should be fairly
far removed from the Metroplex. With that thinking in mind, I`ll
abstain from introducing VCSH or VCTS in the TAF at this time.

For the Waco TAF site---There is a slightly better potential for
MVFR ceilings here around FL015 just prior to sunrise and through
mid-morning. The latest model guidance continues to suggest that
the probability for IFR ceilings remains low. There will be a low
threat for some restricted visibilities. The better threat for
convection appears to remain towards the east of the TAF site and
I`ll maintain a precipitation-free TAF at this time.

24-Bain


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  90  72  82 /  10  10  30  40  80
Waco                94  75  91  72  84 /  20  10  30  30  70
Paris               91  72  90  71  83 /  10  10  30  30  60
Denton              92  74  89  71  81 /  10  10  30  50  80
McKinney            92  74  90  71  82 /  10  10  30  40  70
Dallas              94  77  91  72  83 /  10  10  30  40  80
Terrell             93  74  91  72  84 /  20  10  30  30  60
Corsicana           92  74  91  71  85 /  20  10  30  30  60
Temple              92  74  90  72  85 /  20  10  40  30  70
Mineral Wells       92  73  89  71  79 /  10  20  40  60  80

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

05/58


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