Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200900
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
A COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS. SINCE MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SAW VERY
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY EVENING...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN MORE FLOODING. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDDAY AND EXPAND IT EAST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE
ALL COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...
INCLUDING THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. WE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
TO SLOWLY TRANSITION SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE BEST STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN IT WAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ONLY GOOD THING
IS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH SAW VERY LITTLE RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULT IN A VERY WET AND UNSTABLE WEEKEND ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW SINCE THIS EXPECTED RAIN IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW. HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
BE GATHERING STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST AND SHOULD BRING MORE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING FROM WICHITA FALLS
SOUTHWARD TO COLEMAN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED CELLS PERSISTING FARTHER
EAST FROM NEAR MINERAL WELLS TO NW OF WACO. FOR NOW...BELIEVE
MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES...AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE INITIAL HOURS OF
THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. AS SUCH...MAY
NEED TO ADD VCTS TO AT LEAST THE KFTW...KAFW..AND KDFW TAFS...IF
CURRENT CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER.

OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS BY 10Z AS LOW CLOUDINESS EVOLVES IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA
AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DECAYING REMNANTS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
METROPLEX BY 10Z. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT GREAT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST VCSH CONDITIONS IN THE
METROPLEX AFTER 10Z. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
WACO THROUGH 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  68  62  75 /  50  50  30  40  50
WACO, TX              83  61  73  63  79 /  50  50  30  40  50
PARIS, TX             79  62  71  57  70 /  60  50  30  30  50
DENTON, TX            77  58  68  58  73 /  60  40  30  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          78  61  70  60  74 /  60  50  30  30  50
DALLAS, TX            81  62  68  63  76 /  50  50  30  40  50
TERRELL, TX           82  62  72  62  77 /  50  50  30  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         84  64  73  63  76 /  40  50  30  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            82  66  75  64  79 /  50  50  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  57  67  59  76 /  50  50  30  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>104.


&&

$$

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