Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300850
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION.
DRIER...COOLER AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL BRING AN END TO ALL
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING.

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND
RESULT IN A CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S.
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TO START THE MORNING AND
WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUN...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES TO THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY INTO A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRING INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT BECOME
EXCESSIVELY STEEP...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
NORTH TEXAS WEATHER RAIN-FREE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD FINALLY TRANSLATE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
/06Z TAFS/ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF ALL NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE VICINITY OF WACO CURRENTLY. KEY FORECAST PROBLEM
REMAINING OVERNIGHT CONCERNS THE RETURN OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
METROPLEX (AND LATER...WACO) TAF SITES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD MASS OVER WESTERN OK HAS NOW MADE IT INTO BOWIE...AND
EXPECT AT LEAST BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO BUILD INTO DFW-AREA SITES BY
10Z. BELIEVE THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SHUNT NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 14Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE DELAYED A BIT AT WACO...ARRIVING BY 11Z AND
DEPARTING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.  WACO WILL SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY 11Z.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    77  58  76  59  71 /  10   5   5  50  40
WACO                80  58  78  58  73 /  10   5  10  50  40
PARIS               77  57  77  56  71 /  20  10   5  50  40
DENTON              75  54  75  55  70 /   5   0   5  50  40
MCKINNEY            76  56  76  56  71 /  10   5   5  50  40
DALLAS              78  59  77  59  72 /  10   5   5  50  40
TERRELL             78  58  78  58  72 /  20   5   5  50  50
CORSICANA           80  60  79  60  73 /  20  10  10  50  50
TEMPLE              81  60  79  60  73 /  10  10  10  50  40
MINERAL WELLS       76  54  74  55  70 /   5   5  10  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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