Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211140 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Quick update to include the Dense Fog Advisory, which is in effect
until 10 AM for locations south and east of a Terrell to Marlin to
Killeen line. Stratus and fog continues to surge northward early
this morning, and several sites are now reporting visibilities of
a half mile or less. Depending on trends, it`s possible we`ll need
to add a county or two to the north of the current advisory area
as the morning progresses.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1127 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
No major changes will be needed with the 06Z forecast package.
VFR conditions will prevail overnight with only some scattered
high clouds. Mid level clouds will move in Saturday morning as an
upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Lift and
elevated moisture from this system will result in a few showers
through the day Saturday. The upper system will move across the
region Saturday evening and bring a brief chance for a few
thunderstorms, mainly east of all TAF sites.

A south to southwest wind will prevail overnight at speeds
generally less than 12 knots. Wind speeds will increase between
12 and 15 knots on Saturday along with some higher gusts. These
winds will continue Saturday evening with a wind shift to
northwest expected around sunrise Sunday due to the passage of a
Pacific cold front.

79


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/
Our energetic and active weather pattern continues today with
several interesting features to watch. The first is an area of
low clouds and fog which is percolating across the Hill Country
early this morning. Southwesterly winds in the lowest few thousand
feet will continue to advect this into our region over the next
few hours. Have added in patchy fog wording roughly south and east
of a Bonham to Rockwall to Killeen line, and areas of fog south
and east of a Canton to Corsicana to Temple line as this stratus
deck surges northeastward. We`ll be holding off on issuing a dense
fog advisory for the time as it`s still a bit unclear if the 20
kts of flow just off the surface will help keep things
sufficiently mixed enough to preclude widespread dense fog.

Out to our west, pressure falls have commenced across the Texas
Panhandle early this morning, heralding the nascent stages of
surface cyclogenesis as the nose of a 120+ kt jet streak is
overspreading the state. Surface low pressure will rapidly
materialize this afternoon and the race eastward across southern
Oklahoma tonight. As this low progresses eastward, the pressure
gradient will tighten which will result in the development of
breezy west to southwest winds later this morning and afternoon.
In addition, forecast soundings to our west indicate the
development of what should become a very deeply mixed atmosphere.
Momentum transfer output from BUFKIT soundings indicate the
potential for mixing down some 35-40 kts of flow locked up just
above 800 mb by this afternoon. While statistical guidance does
not concur, almost all available high-resolution guidance appears
to be keying in on this signal, indicating strong winds/gusts
materializing this afternoon and evening. It`s possible that cloud
cover ultimately limits the amount of mixing, but given enough of
a signal from guidance, we`ve gone ahead and hoisted a Wind
Advisory for our far western row of counties (Young, Stephens,
Eastland, Comanche, and Mills) from 1 PM to 6 PM.

The next focus is on precipitation chances this afternoon and
tonight. While moisture is in short supply--PWATS are generally
running about a half inch or less--abundant lift from this
approaching system will likely be able to squeeze out whatever
little moisture is available. There may be a few showers this
morning, but better chances will arrive later this afternoon and
this evening. Given the aforementioned deep inverted-V profiles,
any shower/storms will be capable of producing strong and gusty
downburst winds, although widespread severe-caliber wind gusts are
not anticipated at this time. Precip chances will decrease from
west to east late tonight. As this low clears our area on Sunday,
we`ll be left with dry weather through next week.

As this low departs, strong winds are once again in the cards, and
we will likely need another Wind Advisory--this time for much if
not all of the area--late tonight and into Sunday. We will defer
judgment on this to the dayshift, however.

Temperatures will moderate into the 70s on Monday and Tuesday
before a reinforcing cold front sends temperatures back into the
50s on Wednesday where they will likely remain to close out the
rest of the week.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  48  63  43  67 /  30  30  10   0   0
Waco                73  49  64  40  71 /  30  20   5   0   0
Paris               68  46  60  42  62 /  20  50  20   0   0
Denton              70  46  62  39  66 /  30  30  10   0   0
McKinney            69  47  62  41  65 /  30  40  10   0   0
Dallas              71  48  63  43  68 /  30  30  10   0   0
Terrell             70  47  63  43  66 /  30  40  10   0   0
Corsicana           74  48  64  43  68 /  30  30  10   0   0
Temple              74  49  65  42  72 /  30  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  46  62  40  71 /  30  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ121-122-
135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ100-115-129-141-142.

&&

$$



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