Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 222007
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature across
much of the country including North and Central Texas where one of
the hottest days of the year is occurring. Many sites are already
near or above the century mark as of 3pm and it seems likely DFW
will reach this threshold this afternoon. Dewpoints have mixed out
into the low to mid 60s in most locations which has kept heat
index values near or below Heat Advisory criteria. Otherwise,
warm and mostly clear conditions are expected through the evening
and overnight period. Similar conditions can be expected again on
Saturday with heat index values around 105 possible in areas east
of I-35, but these conditions will once again be too marginal to
warrant a Heat Advisory. Despite being trapped in these summer
doldrums recently, the forecast is beginning to become a bit more
complex.

Changes start to take shape on Sunday as the upper ridge retreats
westward. Multiple shortwave disturbances along the eastern and
southern periphery of the ridge will traverse portions of Texas
Sunday through Wednesday out of northeasterly flow aloft. In
addition, increased southeast winds at low levels will result in
a pronounced increase in boundary layer theta-e, and PW values
will climb to near or above 2" across areas east of I-35 for the
first half of next week. Any subtle disturbance aloft will be
sufficient to generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in a very moist environment as the atmosphere
becomes uncapped via diabatic heating each afternoon.

On Sunday, convection will primarily occur across east Texas but
may approach areas as far west as roughly Paris to Cameron, thus have
opted to introduce low PoPs for Sunday afternoon and evening in
these areas. All guidance has become increasingly aggressive
regarding the thunderstorm potential on Monday and Tuesday and
have increased PoPs slightly each day. This can be attributed to
the marked increase in low and mid-level moisture that latest
guidance is now advertising. Areas along and east of I-35 should
have the highest potential for rainfall during the first half of
the week, but all of North and Central Texas will see at least a
small chance for beneficial rainfall. Areal coverage of activity
is expected to be limited and there will be many locations that do
not receive rainfall during this time. Locations that do
experience storms next week will be dealing with primarily a
downburst wind threat from any strong storms, as well as a
localized flood threat since storm motions will be slow and storms
will be efficient rain producers. Another positive besides the
possible rainfall will be a slight drop in temperatures owing to
the expected increase in cloud cover and the westward shift in the
ridge. Temperatures should return to the mid and upper 90s for
most of next week with heat index readings hovering around 100.

Beyond Wednesday, the GFS and ECMWF both depict a fairly strong
upper trough (by summertime standards) entering the Central
Plains and dragging a cold front as far south as Oklahoma next
weekend. Being such an anomalous solution from a climatological
perspective, am not ready to buy in to this solution just yet and
have maintained a dry extended forecast. If we do remain in
northwest flow aloft with a flattened upper ridge, that would mean
at least low thunderstorm chances across parts of North Texas
later in the week and next Weekend.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/
VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period with
prevailing south winds below 10 knots. Upper level high has
shifted toward the west allowing for CU to develop at around 6000
feet. No rain expected at any TAF sites through the remainder of
this period.

HERNANDEZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 100  80 100  79 /   5  10  10  10  10
Waco                78 101  78 100  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
Paris               78  99  77  98  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
Denton              77 100  77  96  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
McKinney            77  99  78  96  77 /   5  10  10  10  10
Dallas              81 100  81 100  80 /   5  10  10  10  10
Terrell             78  99  77  96  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
Corsicana           78  99  78  96  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Temple              77 100  77  98  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       75 100  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/26



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