Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 140500 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Concerns...Possible MVFR ceilings at Waco between 12 and 16z
Saturday. Strong cold front in the extended (24-36 hour) portion
of the DFW TAF.

Metroplex TAFs...VFR conditions are expected at the Metroplex
TAF sites ahead of a strong cold front that is expected to move
through the Metroplex around 09z Sunday. Expect southerly winds
around 10 knots to increase to around 15 knots by 16z Saturday
as the pressure gradient tightens. Some gusts over 20 knots are
likely. As a cold front approaching overnight Saturday night,
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms and as the
front passes, winds will shift to the northwest at 15 knots with
gusts to 25 knots. Have placed 5SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC020 starting
at 09z Sunday.

Waco TAF...MVFR ceilings may to spread northward into the Waco
area toward 12z. The NAM which had been the most aggressive
computer model in bringing in the stratus has backed off. Have
kept a SCT007 BKN022 in for the 12-16Z period.



.UPDATE... /Issued 958 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/
The weather across the region tonight is quite quiet. The
previous forecast is in good shape. The main change that was made
was to bump up the winds for tomorrow based on the forecast
pressure gradient. Updates have already been sent.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 337 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/
/Through Tonight/

Tranquil conditions are expected during the overnight time period
across North and Central TX as high pressure remains in place. A
nocturnal low level jet is expected to develop tonight and this
will have impacts on sensible weather elements across North and
Central TX in two ways. 1) The increase in winds aloft should
largely mitigate the potential for dense fog Saturday morning as
the boundary layer should remain a bit more mixed. The exception
may be across our southernmost Central TX counties where the 925mb
winds look a tad weaker, but still around 10 to 15 knots. For
now, will only advertise just some patchy fog down across Central
TX, but if winds aloft are weaker than what is currently
anticipated, dense fog wording may need to be added in future
forecast updates. What appears more likely is that a thin stratus
deck will develop due to the elevated winds and this is most
likely to occur across Central TX. 2) The other impact of the
nocturnal LLJ will be to increase boundary layer mixing. This
should allow for slightly warmer conditions and I`ve kept
temperature a few degrees greater than last night, especially
across Central TX where cloud cover may also limit radiational
cooling. In general, temperatures should still fall into the 60s
and 70s before sunrise.

Clouds and any fog that develops should both quickly lift and
dissipate with the onset of daytime heating.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 337 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/
/Saturday through Friday/

Saturday promises to be another warm day with increasing humidity,
as breezy south winds continue to transport low level moisture
into the region ahead of Saturday night`s cold front. The breezy
winds of 10-15 mph with higher gusts will provide some relief but
high temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s across most
of the region. However, heat index readings will reach the upper
90s in some locations.

The cold front will sweep down the Plains during the day tomorrow
and start crossing into North Texas around 1-2 am, give or take an
hour on either side. During the daytime and evening hours on
Saturday, rain is expected to occur from the Texas Panhandle
stretching northeast into Kansas, ahead of the associated upper
level trough. This rain will transition south with the front, but
as the front races south ahead of the main upper level dynamics,
the forcing along the front will weaken, and the rain is expected
to eventually become more scattered.

Highest rain chances early Saturday morning will be across roughly
the northwestern half of the CWA where better coverage of rain is
expected with the arrival of the front. As the front moves across
North Texas, a narrow band of showers and isolated storms is
expected along the leading edge of the front along with scattered
post frontal rain and isolated thunderstorms. As the front moves
into Central Texas after sunrise, the narrow band of convection
along the leading edge will likely gradually shrink in coverage,
and some post frontal rain will continue, possibly as far north as
the Red River where the elevated front and upper level trough
will still have an influence. Severe weather is not expected, and
even the potential for thunder appears minimal due to limited
instability and lapse rates. Most of the rain will end before the
afternoon hours, but will keep a slight chance for elevated light
rain or showers along and north of I-20 through the afternoon
hours as the trough axis traverses the region. Clearing skies and
windy conditions will follow the front with 15-20 mph winds
gusting around 30 mph.

Pleasant fall weather will persist through next week even with a
slow warming trend. On Sunday and Monday nights, overnight lows
will drop into the 40s and lower 50s. Some locations in our
western and northwestern counties may dip into the upper 30s both
of these nights due to light winds and clear skies. Southerly
winds will return by midweek but moisture will be slow to return.
Both the GFS and ECMWF now bring a shortwave across the region on
Friday with possibly some rain chances across at least Central
Texas, but will maintain a dry forecast for now.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  93  62  71  49 /   0   0  60  30   0
Waco                69  93  66  74  50 /   0   5  20  30   0
Paris               69  91  62  70  46 /   0   0  50  30   0
Denton              70  93  60  70  46 /   0   0  60  30   0
McKinney            70  92  60  69  46 /   0   0  60  30   0
Dallas              72  93  63  72  50 /   0   0  60  30   0
Terrell             69  93  63  73  47 /   0   0  50  30   0
Corsicana           70  91  66  74  50 /   0   0  20  30   0
Temple              70  91  65  75  51 /   0   5  10  30   0
Mineral Wells       69  93  58  69  43 /   0   5  60  30   0




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