Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 100448 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10KTS. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
AT 3 PM...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO GRAHAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF
I-35E. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THURSDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE RETURNED NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION A LITTLE MORE
TOMORROW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE REGION WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BUT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE PARIS AREA TOMORROW AND INCLUDED
LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD STRONG PREVENTING ANY RAIN IN OUR
AREA. IF ANY RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET 10 POPS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION...UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COMMON THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THEIR LATEST RUNS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FORCED BACK
WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AREAS. THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BUT ALL THREE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST
WITH THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL...BRINGING IT IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS HAS IT ON THURSDAY.
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE REACH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  79  99  78 /   5  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              73  97  73  97  74 /   5  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  94  75  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  97  76  98  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  96  76  97  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79  99  79 /   5  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           78  98  77  96  75 /   5  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  74  96  74 /   5  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  97  72  96  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  98  74 /   5  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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