Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210815
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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