Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021733 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

THE SKIES ARE A MESSY COMBINATION OF VARIOUS CLOUD DECKS WITH MVFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE DFW AREA FROM THE NORTH AND MVFR CIGS NOW
MOVING EAST OF KACT. WILL PREVAIL VFR CIGS BUT TEMPO FOR
BKN020-BKN025 THROUGH 21Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...WILL
TEMPO FOR -RA AND -SHRA THROUGH 21Z AS SCATTERED RAIN CONTINUES
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 8-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR STORMS APPROACHING THE TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY...FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR RAIN AND/OR THUNDER.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE COOL AND STABLE AT THE SURFACE...BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL NOTED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOST OF
THE DAY TO HOLD HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

A MINOR UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES DOWN AND TAKE
THUNDER OUT NORTH OF I-20...WHILE MAINTAINING HIGHER POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK.
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL MAY OCCUR OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  70   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  30   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  60   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  70  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  30   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/05



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