Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 262035
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TUTT MOVES WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THE
TUTT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER
NEVADA HAVE COMBINED TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...FORCING THE RIDGE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS
CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS THE
WEAKEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE
TUTT TO OUR SOUTHEAST...EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TUTT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF IN THE MID LEVELS AND DRIFT
WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY DRAW THE RICHEST MOISTURE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO INVADE THE REGION. THE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
OF THE CWA. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES BUT THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
THEN SKIRT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...THIS WILL DRAW THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND ITS MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE TO
THE NORTH...OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
THE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTION APPROACH OR ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS BUT TROUGHING WILL STILL OCCUR THE REGION. WE EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
BENEFITING FROM DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL...BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
/REPRESENTING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/ AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL END ON SUNDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO THE MID 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S
WITH SOME AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S.

BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATE THAT
THE RICHEST MOISTURE EXISTS FROM WACO INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
CHALLENGES THE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL BE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO SUNSET.

A THICKENING CU FIELD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN WACO AND MARLIN. MORE SUBSIDENT AIR
APPEARED EVIDENT WITH LESS CU DEVELOPMENT OVER DFW. A DEEPER EAST
FLOW COMPONENT WAS NOTED BY GOES DENSITY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS CLOSER TO THE GULF DISTURBANCE. HAVE RETAINED VCTS
MENTION FOR WACO...BUT MAY NEED TO SPEED IT UP AN HOUR OR TWO.
THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
DFW METRO...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEAR AS HIGH AS IT IS AT WACO AND
WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF VCTS. A BRIEF AMENDMENT CAN BE MADE
ON AN AIRPORT TO AIRPORT BASIS IF A STORM WAS TO DEVELOP UP HERE.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
NORTH-NORTH EAST WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THAT MAY HELP DRIVE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AT WACO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN BECOMING EAST AT
5 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF WACO AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HANGS CLOSE TO THE DISTURBANCE AND THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TEXAS
COAST.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  77  98  78 /  10   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              75 100  74  97  76 /  20   5   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             72  96  71  94  73 /  20   5   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            75  98  74  97  75 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  72  95  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            79  99  77  97  78 /  10   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  97  75 /  20   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  98  76  97  75 /  20   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  73  96  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74 100  73  98  73 /  10  10   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82





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