Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201953
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE HOLE IN THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH IS EVIDENCE OF THE DRIER AIR
THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE EAST. AS THIS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD...CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ALSO END FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAY
RESIDE FOR SOME ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM ACROSS THE MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW TEMPS SHOULD
COOL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND IS
HEADING SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE RED RIVER SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT AHEAD OF IT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED IN NORTH TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND LITTLE TO NO
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALSO BECAUSE WIND FIELDS
ARE SO LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED. STILL WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. THIS
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING STABILITY
OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ZONES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
ANYTHING THAT MAY POP UP WITH THE AID OF AFTERNOON HEATING.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE CORE OF THE
COOL AIRMASS WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONUS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS FRONT...THE AIR WILL BE DRIER. THIS
DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE...WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER
50S. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY MILD...EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL...DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY PLEASANT NEXT
WEEK.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STORM TRACK WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION DUE TO A
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA. IN
ADDITION...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH
WILL TEND TO KEEP GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THUS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE THE
GFS/ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAK UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

LAST LOOK AT KFWS 88D SHOWS WDLY SCTD SHRA FORMING OVER ALL BUT
THE EXTREME EASTERN CWA. THUS...MIGHT HAVE TO ADD VCSH FOR A
METROPLEX TERMINAL OR TWO BEFORE 20Z.

WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS AN HOUR OR SO MORE BEFORE GOING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR SPREADING WESTWARD WILL
PUSH MVFR CIGS UP AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT KDAL TO
SCATTER FIRST BY 19Z FOLLOWED BY THE OTHER METROPLEX SITES AND
KACT BY 20Z. SHRA HAVE MOVED WEST OF KACT AND DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL UPDATE LATER IF THEY
DEVELOP AGAIN AND POSE A THREAT.

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR CIGS ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND ALONG WITH SCT070.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  93  70  87  66 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              69  93  70  90  66 /  10   5   5  20   5
PARIS, TX             68  89  64  81  59 /   5  20  20   5   5
DENTON, TX            67  91  67  86  61 /   5  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  92  66  86  59 /   5  10  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            72  93  70  87  66 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           69  94  69  87  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  94  71  89  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  93  70  91  66 /  10   5   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  91  68  86  64 /  10   5  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













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