Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 051747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE INCLUDE WIND SHIFTS...SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED BETWEEN DFW AND WACO BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE METROPLEX WINDS TO TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN THE SPAN OF A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. AT WACO...WINDS WILL SIMPLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE TO REFLECT THIS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO TURBULENCE
AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW IS EAST OF THE TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING...WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF BKN025 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...IS IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS MAY BECOME AS LOW AS
FL010 AT TIMES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUCH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR ALL SITES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STALLEY

&&

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25



&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  40  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  40  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  40   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  40  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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