Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270321 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
921 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
TONIGHTS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK CONCERNING WINDS AND TEMPS...BUT
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION REQUIRE US TO
UPDATE THE SKY WORDING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO THE SEMI-TRANSPARENCY OF THE CIRRUS...WE FEEL
A PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IS BEST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF.

WE HAVE NO NEW DATA CONCERNING THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PAST PERSONAL EXPERIENCE WITH THESE SOUTHWEST
CONUS CLOSED UPPER LOWS EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE
WINTERTIME PROVIDES CONFIDENCE IN OUR DECISION TO INCREASE POPS IN
THE DAY 5 TO 6 PERIOD. IF QPF OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH PANS OUT SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE RUNOFF WOULD HELP TO RAISE SOME LAKE
AND RESERVOIR LEVELS EVEN MORE THAN THE LAST SYSTEM. A SECOND
RAIN EVENT NEXT WEEK WOULD JUST BE MORE ICING ON THE CAKE FOR AREA
LAKES AND RESERVOIRS. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND SPEEDS LESS
THAN 12 KNOTS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.    79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY NICE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE WORTH WATCHING
AS IT OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

OUR WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE
70S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW WESTERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 80.
THURSDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...BUT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

BY FRIDAY...A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES....SPREADING THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CHILLY BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
COLD RAIN.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF
THESE OCCURRENCES SHOULD HELP SPREAD SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD AND BRING
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  72  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              40  75  44  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             38  70  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            39  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          38  71  43  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            43  72  46  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           40  72  44  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         40  73  45  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            43  75  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  75  47  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75





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