Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
404 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

/Through Tonight/

Area radar imagery shows the back edge of heavier precipitation
almost to the I-35 corridor this afternoon. A steady eastward
progression is expected to continue as the main forcing for ascent
continues to pull away to the northeast. Temperatures have
remained at or below freezing for much of the day generally north
and west of the Metroplex, where significant amounts of freezing
rain and sleet occurred. Over the last 1-2 hours though, these
areas have warmed to 30-32 degrees.

For the remainder of tonight, precipitation will end from west to
east this evening with the threat for heavy rainfall also
diminishing. Temperatures east of I-35 have remained in the mid to
upper 30s and lower 40s, so no wintry precipitation is expected
through the evening.

Later tonight, most likely after midnight, as a strong shortwave
digs across Arizona and New Mexico, low level flow above the
frontal inversion will begin to strengthen. With ample moisture in
place and with a strong wave of ascent in the 290-300K layer
expected to overspread North Texas, some light drizzle is expected
to develop prior to sunrise. With temperatures below freezing out
west, this drizzle may continue to cause problems with a light
coating of ice expected. As the stronger forcing for ascent
arrives shortly after sunrise, scattered showers and perhaps some
embedded thunder will develop through the morning into the
afternoon. Some of this heavier activity could occur while
temperatures are below freezing mainly north and west of the
Metroplex. For that reason, we`ll keep a Winter Weather Advisory
in effect overnight into midday Thursday. We cancelled the Ice
Storm Warning as the threat for more significant icing has
diminished. It should be stressed that dangerous travel conditions
are likely to persist out west through the overnight hours.

Concerning the flooding threat...Heavy rainfall is expected to be
confined to mainly this evening across the eastern half of the
region. We continued the Flood Watch until midnight mainly from
Dallas northeast where the heavier rains have already occurred.



The wet pattern will continue from Thursday through the day on
Saturday and then we will finally have a dry forecast from
Saturday evening through Monday night before our next rain chances
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday...light freezing rain chances will continue for western
and northern counties that are in the winter weather advisory
through the morning hours before temperatures rise above freezing
by the afternoon. Elsewhere rain chances will increase throughout
the day as moisture streams into north TX from southwest to
northeast. While rain is a good bet in most areas the good news is
that we are not expecting large rainfall amounts like we have
seen the past few days. The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely
be for areas east of I-35E as models are showing PWATs of 1.4+

Friday and Saturday...Rain chances continue into Friday and
Saturday as southwest flow aloft will persist due to a pesky slow
moving large scale upper level trough to our west. By Saturday
morning, the base of the upper trough will approach the Texas
Panhandle and a surface low is progged to set up on the leeside
of the Rockies in western KS. The GFS is showing a fairly intense
surface low with a front trailing southward into north TX and
hinting at a linear system evolving along the frontal boundary as
it moves from west to east throughout the day on Saturday. There
could even be some severe storms as current model timing is
showing good low level convergence setting up by mid-day.
Instability is fairly limited though, particular for our western
zones, but model soundings are depicting a few hours of possible
CAPE to work with for the central and eastern portions of our CWA.
Regardless of whether there will be any severe storm potential or
not we will see a good chance of showers and thunderstorms moving
from west to east throughout the day on Saturday with clearing by
Saturday afternoon for areas to the west and by the evening for
all areas.

Sunday and Monday...Finally a dry forecast! High pressure will
dominate and we will see mostly clear skies and temps slightly
above normal.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Rain returns to the forecast as the High
breaks down and slides eastward and a sfc low and upper level
trough approach from the west.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1224 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation today continues
to move to the east/northeast this afternoon along the base of a
95+ mph jet streak. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are now
making their way into the I-35 corridor with on and off light to
moderate rain expected through 23Z today. As the precipitation
moves over the terminals, expect reduced visibilities with locally
gusty winds around 20kts. Strong lift, coupled with elevated
instability will increase the potential for thunderstorms across
DFW TAF sites beginning at 19Z and continuing until 23Z. As the
rain shield continues to move to the east, precipitation will come
to an end, leaving IFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF

For Waco, intermittent rain showers will continue for a few
hours, with the main line of rain with embedded thunderstorms
crossing the terminal around 22Z. Drying conditions will move into
Waco this evening ahead of the next round of rain expected
Thursday, with IFR continuing through this TAF cycle.

Rain will be moving from southwest to northeast through the day on
Thursday, affecting Waco around 13Z and moving into the
Dallas/Fort Worth TAF sites around 16Z. Current forecast carries
VCSH for all TAF sites, but given there will be elevated
instability once again, the potential for thunder will be
addressed in later TAF issuances.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    33  48  43  57  53 /  50  80  50  80  60
Waco                36  49  45  63  57 /  40  80  70  70  50
Paris               36  53  47  59  56 /  90  80  80  90  60
Denton              31  46  39  54  51 /  50  80  40  80  70
McKinney            34  48  43  57  53 /  60  80  50  80  70
Dallas              33  48  44  58  54 /  50  80  60  80  60
Terrell             37  52  46  62  57 /  70  80  70  80  50
Corsicana           37  51  47  65  59 /  60  80  80  70  50
Temple              36  49  46  66  57 /  40  80  70  60  40
Mineral Wells       29  43  37  53  49 /  20  70  40  80  70


Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for TXZ091>094-

Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for TXZ093>095-104>107-


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